Was this the week that determined the result of the general election?

A week is a long time in politics, as the saying goes, and the last seven days are certainly testament to that.

The week began with Alistair Darling's Pre-Budget Report, which showed the country heading for record borrowing, and a devastating attack on the Government's economic record by George Osborne.

The following day, Nick Wood wrote on this website that Labour had made it virtually impossible for themselves to win the next election. And the opinion polls published this weekend - carried out since Monday's PBR - would seem to back up that assertion, showing Tory leads of 15 per cent and 11 per cent respectively.

But those polls were both taken before the full details emerged about the arrest of Tory immigration spokesmen Damian Green on Thursday afternoon.

And whilst his plight has understandably had less media prominence on account of the terrorist atrocities in India, I believe that the public will feel a sense of outrage about his treatment and the position of the Government in the whole affair, which, even if not complicit (as it claims), has stood by, unconcerned about the implications it has for democratic accountability of the executive.

Will we be able to look back in 18 months' time and conclude that this was the week which determined the result of the next election?

Jonathan Isaby

Comments

[wirch]

I think history will show that this was the week that those fantasists who thought GB could actually win finally realised the truth, but the fact is the result was sealed when GB lied in his 'Marr exclusive' when he called off the election last year. That was when the media set its mind against him as a fraud.

[maas101]

Counting chickens already?

I suspect that the Prince of Darkness is planning a nice omelette already. 2 weeks is a long time in politics, 2 years an age.

[Mike]

maas101, your comment nicely illustrates exactly why the country has come to hate New Labour.

[Rupert Matthews]

I'm sorry, but am I the only one who see's the PoD's fingerprints all over the Damian Green episode?

[Bernard from Horsham]

Why no Mori poll on the site. I e mailed you the details last night..

[Sally Roberts]

I am watching with absolute fury the Home Secretary lying through her teeth on Marr! She claims the treatment of Damian Green is justified because there have been "systematic breaches of security from a Department where a great deal of sensitive information is held". Clearly this is going to be ZanuLab's line from now on - no whiff of an apology for the treatment of a Member of Her Majesty's Loyal Opposition going about his lawful business!
I have to say Ken Clarke on the same programme was superb!

[Teesbridge]

As to the fingerprints of PoD, I see virtually no commentary on the nationalisation of RBS by the back door.

Job Done.

[maas101]

Mike I agree.

And having just watched Jackboot Smith on Marr I really hope this lot get consigned to oblivion in a lot less than 2 years but I also know how far they will go to smear and rubbish the opposition.

When is Marr going to grow a pair? He completely fudged the questioning on whether Smith signed a bugging order for Green's Blackberry.

[On The Job]

Yes i have just watch that B***H as well
this stink to the high heaven. don't lnow about the rest of you but i actually like knocking on doors at the moment!

I think out next election slogan shouldn't pull any punchesd how about

Get the Bastards out now!

[Tony Walker]

The treatment of Damien Green was very poor- 9 counter-terroism officers is way over the top and the Home Secretary deserves severe criticism for allowing excessive police powers. However Mr Green could well be facing serious charges (rumours and i stress probable lies)state that he paid for leaks. If this is the case then a police investigaion is valid. Unfortuantly we don't know the facts so our criticism at the moment should be on the excessive use of police manpower and resources

[Ken Stevens]

"Will we be able to look back in 18 months' time and conclude that this was the week which determined the result of the next election?"

Only if the Tories do something radical and memorable in relation to the abuse of police powers etc.

Will anyone do anything positive, such as parliamentary protest associated with Queen's Speech, maintaining pressure thereafter until the matter is resolved?
I wonder.

If not, then this affair will have blown over long before next GE.

[leroche]

The govt will get increasingly desperate IMO. They will do anything they can to get hold of opposition plans, policies etc. in advance so they can spin them.

They are terrified of opposition - 11 years is a long time and some of them have never even tasted it.

[David Belchamber]

"I have to say Ken Clarke on the same programme was superb!

Posted by: Sally Roberts | November 30, 2008 at 09:47

Absolutely; whatever KC's current views on the EU, his grasp of the economy and the way he demolishes Brown's efforts in a couple of sentences is so refreshing.

He is on top of his brief and so fluent that it is embarrassing to listen to Jacqui Smith and other second rate politicians.

She never addressed the issue of parliamentary privilege and only rabbited on about dealing with leaks in her department. Perhaps Marr should have pointed out that Damian Green does not actually work in the Home Office!

[Sally Roberts]

"If not, then this affair will have blown over long before next GE."

Not if we keep it going Ken - and we ALL need to maintain our fury!

[Patsy Sergeant]

'Tony Walker' @ 10.00 - 'However Mr. Green could well be facing serious charges (rumours and i stress probable lies)state thathe paid for leaks. If this is the case then a police investigation is valid.'

Are you saying 'Mr. Walker' that THAT is what is being established (or trying to be established) as what happened, from the 'employee' who actually leaked the said documents???? Or the 'proof' of such a transaction???

[Matt Wright]

It may blow over eventually but all these things form views in peoples minds about the Govt.

[The Wilted Rose]

Yes

- answer - in style of ex radio 2 controller but from nokia e71 not blackberry - to question posed by Jonathan

[David Belchamber]

PS I am also delighted that Ken Clarke dropped into the conversation the fact that Brown's bailout of the banks was a direct copy of what Sweden did about 16 years ago.

I don't see why Brown should get away with claiming authorship of something that was copied from someone else.

[Tony Walker]

I believe Mr Green is innocent until proven gulity and although I have never met the man I presume he is honourable and no such thing has occured. I presume this from the force of DC's attacks. However the police must have some evidence of wrongdoing, we will have to wait until all the facts are avaliable before judging the police response overall and their entitlement to arrest. However the actual arrest does appear to be OTT and a sad indictment of New Labour if 9 anti-terroism police are called for a man who is hardly likley to resist arrest

[Iain Martin]

Without wishing to be too pessimistic, I'm not sure the Damian Green arrest will make much difference to the polls. Rightly, the Indian atrocity was covered more in the media. Also I believe the voters who have swayed towards us in the last two years are those who are likely to take a greater interest in current affairs. Understandably, the next batch of swing voters will vote primarily with self-interest. This issue will do nothing for them, they will vote on the basis of which party would do more for them. I am absolutely outraged by the treatment of Damian and would like to see the speaker resign. However I think it is far too easy for us, the readers of this blog, the small percentage who take a full interest in politics, and generally from Conservative perspective - and those in the Westminster bubble to whip ourselves into a frenzy.

Overall, fantastic news on the polls. We mustn't be complacent though.

[Patsy Sergeant]

But David Belchamber GB always copies other people, or things from other people, doesn't he? That is one reason why he is sooo annoyed with David Cameron, because he has produced so little THAT HE, GORDON BROWN CAN COPY!

[Patsy Sergeant]

'Mr., Walker' @ - 'However the police must(?) have some evidence of wrongdoing, we will have to wait until all the facts are available before judging police response overall and their entitlement to arrest.'

Yes 'Mr. Walker' it would appear that there WILL be some 'evidence', should anything come to court. Lets hope that the 'care' shown to the employee concerned in all this, is not too heavy-handed, and doesn't take toooo long! Because as Ms Smith indicated this morning the government - having put itself onto a single-track situation, seems, to have no intention to ameliorate the situation!

[On The Job]

question what happens now if the government leaks good news?

[Graeme Archer]

Tony Walker's assertion that the police "must have some evidence of wrongdoing" in the Green case is astonishing. They didn't need any evidence to gun down Jean Charles de Menezes, did they? There's no point in being mealy-mouthed about the Met anymore. I'm as far from the "hard" or "solid" Right as it's possible to be while remaining a card-carrying Tory, and the following language doesn't come either easily or naturally to me: but the Met are nothing more than the armed wing of the Labour party. Post-election their Augean stable needs to be cleaned.

As for Smith and her ludicrous claim to know nothing - she's lying. This is the woman who got hysterical about her managerial rights when Boris got rid of Ian Blair. She made a great deal of how the Met chief reports to her. Now we're supposed to believe that Blair's acting successor, in line to replace him on Smith's say so, didn't mention to her that he sanctioned Green's arrest? Having already told Boris and David Cameron? Get real. Stop lying.

[Graeme Archer]

I should have been clearer that I'm referring to the Met's leaders. I have a brother-in-law in special branch and remain a fan of rank and file officers.

[Ken Stevens]

Sally R

Aye indeed - but the lead must come from Tory leaders, with a memorable demonstration of the disgust felt at what we have become under Labour.

The Heseltine Mace incident was memorable,(even if one can't always quite remember why!). The country needs that and more to inject the evils of Labour into its longer term consciousness

[bill]

The fact that Labour are rejecting accustions of Stalinesque behaviour won't help them.

[The Bishop Swine]

"I'm sorry, but am I the only one who see's the PoD's fingerprints all over the Damian Green episode?"

Not at all, but I do think the public is fast becoming wise to the very real dangers posed by Comrade Brown and his Stalinist counter revolutionaries. Smith is by far the most poisonous of his politburo, other than the PoD. The Godless cronies of nu-labour deserve to be shown up for what they are. I notice that having messed up the economy Labour plan to continue with a welfare reform that will force many truly sick people into grinding poverty. They are selling out the unemployed with benefit rates that are of third world standard. Having paid into the state in National insurance contributions, in many cases for decades being asked to get buy on JSA is adding insult to injury. By the time the next election is finally called, Nu-Labour will have many more enemies. Its up to us to offer some real hope, and the promise of real change to the Millions that have fallen under Labours Jackboots.

[The Bishops wife]

"I don't see why Brown should get away with claiming authorship of something that was copied from someone else."

I suspect that Brown got the idea from the internet. Much like the dodgy dossier this scheme was copied in verbatim and much like the dodgy dossier it has only been partially successful in fooling the British people. The Brown bounce is now over; as the people can now see that there is no real substance to the man they call “Bean” behind his back and Stalin to his face.

[Sally Roberts]

Ken you're right - but if any action IS being contemplated then it is hardly likely be "trailed" on here in advance!
I have just emailed my MP, Greg Hands, to ask that something IS done and I am quite sure there is a great deal of discussion going on behind the scenes! Let's just watch this space, shall we?!

[Philip Jackson]

"This is the woman who got hysterical about her managerial rights when Boris got rid of Ian Blair. She made a great deal of how the Met chief reports to her. Now we're supposed to believe that Blair's acting successor, in line to replace him on Smith's say so, didn't mention to her that he sanctioned Green's arrest?"

Gets my vote for comment of the day.

[Raj]

Sally, agreed - any "action" is going to be kept private, though we've already heard rumours about a protest taking place during the Queen's Speech at least against the Speaker, demanding he account for himself.

I'm sure that Cameron and the Shadow Cabinet will not let this lie either. They're all over the papers and TV. Short of instigating physical action, which is not what Green would want, there is not much else they can do.

[On The Job]

A call to all tory supporting journalist who labour don't about every time Labour leaks to you call the police.

If this is such a serious issue then governemnt leaks should be dealt withon the same level

Last week on the same day that this was going on there were leaks every where about the queens speech why has no one been arrested!

it is time to show this control freaky governemnt up for what it really is a totlaitarian socialist dictorship.

If all else fails let's march on parliament and protest about th eloss of civil liberties

[On The Job]

oh i forgot were not allowed to march on parliament

[John Ward]

I have a gut feeling that this will indeed turn out to have been pivotal, and the Damian Green affair will reverberate around Westminster, Whitehall, the media and the country for a long time.

Meanwhile, I have double-encrypted all my non-current casework files, including scanned-in papers that need to be kept on file, and scrubbed (to military standard) all my hard drives' free spaces.

I suggest that all elected members do the same until the threat of seizure is completely eliminated, as a duty to protect their constituents' privacy and (sometimes sensitive, personal and confidential) information, as I have written (in more detail) on my own 'blog today.

[Susan]

I disagree. This will not be a week pinpointed as the time the Conservatives won the GE. It's true that the Labour onslaught against everything Britain holds close becomes more evident with every passing day but the Opposition must strive, moreso in the face of a compliant media, to have their voice heard. Please don't become complacent and mistake a chink of sunlight for a new dawn.

[Gloy Plopwell]

Very excrited as lib Dems up to 15%.
Enfield council will be a lib dem gain in 2010, and watch out for Harrow, and Wandsworth aswell.

[Raj]

oh i forgot were not allowed to march on parliament

You can certainly assemble on the Square opposite - the pro-Georgian protest took place there.

[pp]

Raj: You need permission for any demonstration within a mile(?) of parliament - a 'demonstration' is not actually defined, so it is down to what the authorities decide it is...

[Eveleigh Moore-Dutton]

Posted by: Graeme Archer | November 30, 2008 at 11:40

"As for Smith and her ludicrous claim to know nothing - she's lying."

I hate to disagree with you here Graeme - she wasn't lying only exaggerating when she says she knows nothing - she actually knows very, very little (about anything!) Tis the nature of ignorance that it is seldom absolute - there may just be the tiniest glimmer in the sepulchral darkness that is her mind. "Nothing" is sooooo absolute.

In childhood my brother had a dog that was very, very dim but I still would not have said that it knew "nothing"...

:-))

[John Ward]

For the benefit of "Gloy Plopwell" and any other "excrited" LibDems here: their poll rating is in fact down from 19% on 22 Nov (ICM, Sunday Mirror) and 18% (ICM again, The Guardian). They are matginally up (by one point) from the 14% in the YouGov poll on 25 Nov for The Telegraph. As near-enough always, they are way behind both of the Big Two, and are effectively an irrelevance.

Meanwhile, back on topic, my own belief is that the only way we can ever restore our country to what it should be is by the Monarch dissolving parliament and forcing a General Election.

[Sally Roberts]

"In childhood my brother had a dog that was very, very dim but I still would not have said that it knew "nothing"..."

It obviously wasn't called "Manuel" then?!

;-)

[The Bishop Swine]

"oh i forgot were not allowed to march on parliament"

Well we can march if we have permission but we cannot get anywhere near the palace anymore. When I was 12 yrs old I went to London for the very first time. We did a tour that included Downing Street. In those days you could walk right along the street and the only real difference between 10 and the rest of the Street was the Policeman stood outside. I recall feeling very proud that our Prime Minister lived in a normal house in a normal road. Isn't this the real legacy of Nu-Labour that it has damaged the realationship between Parliment and the people of our Union.

[onthejob]

so are we marching then what about next saturday all meet at charing cross station see how far we get!

IF THEY WON'T LET US MARCH LETS ALL GO FOR A BEER AND MAKE UP FUNNY NAMES ABOUT THE PRIME MINISTER AND THEN LEAK THEM TO THE PRESS HE HE

[onthejob]

Seriously though i am up for a demo fo rthe first time in my life

[John Tinsley]

No wonder we have no police on the streets. Nine officers to arrest a mild middle aged politician! but perhaps he was lucky not to have been shot in the head when he answered the door.

[Sally Roberts]

It would be worth it, onthejob, just to find out who you are! I do enjoy your posts (he he) ;-)

[Bernie Johns]

"my own belief is that the only way we can ever restore our country to what it should be is by the Monarch dissolving parliament and forcing a General Election."

And then vote for party that will remove us from the strangle-hold of the eu.

The cause of all(or at least 70%) of our ills.

[Sally Roberts]

On a serious point it is good to see Conservatives in general so united on Con Home against our Common Enemy! Long may we stand together.

[Sally Roberts]

If a March is organised, I will be there!

[Bernie Johns]

Once the police can interfere with Parliament, we are into the police state.
This is the sort of thing that led to the start of the Civil War when Charles I went to Parliament.
If you think this is bad you ain't seen nothing yet. Just wait till EUROPOL and the European Gendarmerie armed with a sheath of EU arrest warrants, get going!

[onthejob]

It would be worth it, onthejob, just to find out who you are! I do enjoy your posts (he he) ;-)

big disapointment in the flesh
Does any one here know how to organise a demo because i think we should do something and do it soon

it is about time those of us of centre right persuasion actually stood up and said that we are not going to take this lying down anymore... we have had enough.

Besides why should all the left wing tree hugging hippies have all the fun come on lets do it

[John Moss]

Sundays all full of PBR analysis and most highlight the fact that the NI changes will be the big tax raiser, not the 45p rate, which will also only raise half what scrapping personal allowances for the highest earners will rake in.

Another "budget" where the speech actively misrepresented the truth!

Watch upper-middle and high ranking public officials turn against Labour from next week as they realise that it will be their pay packets taking the biggest hits. Might even cause some sharp intakes of breath at the BBC!

Leaks? Ha! You ain't seen nothing yet.

[Sally Roberts]

And here's a little song we can sing as we go along - adapted from "The Song of the Western Men" (with apologies to R S Hawker and to any Cornish who may be offended):-

A Good Sword and a Trusty Hand,
A Merry Heart and True,
Now Gordon’s Men Shall understand
What Tory Hearts can do!

And shall Young Damian live?
And shall Young Damian die?
Here's twenty thousand Tories Bold
Will know the reason why!
And when we come to Westminster Hall
A pleasant sight to view,
Come forth! come forth! ye cowards all:
Here's folk as good as you.
Young Damian he's in keep and hold;
His Reputation it may die:
Here's twenty thousand Tories bold
Will know the reason why

[onthejob]

Nice one sally i was actually goign to go along with labour, labour, labour
followed by out,out, out

But i like yours more :-)

[onthejob]

Sorry just got to do this and I apologise right now to all scots everywhere
(Adapted from william wallaces speech from braveheart
"I am onthejob and i see a whole road full of my countryman ready to fight.

Aye protest and you may die flee and you'll live at least a while. But tell me this lying in your beds years from now would you trade all that for just one chance....One Chance! to tell our enemies that may take our Damien but they will never take our freedom!"

[Sally Roberts]

Thanks onthejob :-) Actually just flicking through the itunes Store I see there's a highland march called "March of the Cameron Men"!! I've just downloaded it in case needed.

[Sally Roberts]

Being serious - I don't have any experience in organising a March though I have been on the Countryside March - twice. Tim do you have any thoughts about whether something might be organised?

[onthejob]

seriously it would be great if something could be organised

despite the humour i do think we need to ram the point home on this one

And the thought of 20,000 conservatives or for that matter anyone who agrees with us on this would be fantastic

[Stewart]

This whole affair has New Labour overkill written all over it. Witness the case of PCs being sent to stop children drawing hopscotch grids on the pavement, the treatment of Walter Wolfgang at the Labour conference a few years back, the PCs sent to question the radio presenter who said she was opposed to the legalisation of gay marriage. Overkill, and spite if you disagree with New Labour ideals. There must be purges of the Home office, and the Met police. The speaker must resign or be sacked.

[Sally Roberts]

Imagine the sight of 20,000 or more people - marching with banners emblazoned with:-

"Walter Wolfgang", "Elizabeth Silkin", "Dr David Kelly", "Jean Charles de Menezes", "Damian Green"......

[onthejob]

and perhaps one big banner with

"Sleep walking into a police state.......
we have just woken up"

[David Cooper]

Hi Sally - great contributions all day, especially the song. I'd like to reply in kind so that we don't forget that the economy is just as important as Damian Green's arrest. I posted this anonymously on Guido earlier this week but on reflection thought it might deserve a wider audience. With grateful acknowledgments to Dion's "The Wanderer": -

Oh well I’m the type of guy who will always waste your cash
Where taxpayers are, you know I’ll rob them in a flash
I plunder them and fleece them ‘cause to me they’re all the same
I mug them and I squeeze them, they will surely know my name
They call me the squanderer, yeah the squanderer,
I scorch the ground, the ground, the ground, the ground, the ground

Oh well there’s Mandy on my left and Ed Balls on my right
And Darling on the puppet strings who’s locked away at night
And when the voters ask me who I used to love the best
I tear open my shirt, I got Prudence on my chest
‘Cause I’m a squanderer, yeah I’m a squanderer,
I scorch the ground, the ground, the ground, the ground, the ground

Well, I rant and rave and frown
I waste it all without a care
I’m as happy a clown
With my clunking fist of iron, I’m not all there

Yeah, I’m the type of guy who likes to flee the flak
I’m never there when things are hard, I hide to dodge attack
And when they try to blame me, when the criticism’s hurled
I hop right in to an aeroplane and fly around the world
‘Cause I’m a squanderer, yeah I’m a squanderer,
I scorch the ground, the ground, the ground, the ground, the ground
‘Cause I’m a squanderer, yeah I’m a squanderer,
I scorch the ground, the ground, the ground, the ground, the ground

[Malcolm Dunn]

Where are the trolls? A long thread like this and not one person blaming Cameron for anything! The lefties seem to have disappeared too. The more decent among them are probably ashamed of their government but I'm suprised David Boothroyd who has no qualms at all about defending the absolutely indefensible isn't singing the praises of Jacqui Smith today.

[Sally Roberts]

Brilliant David Cooper!

[Tynemouth Tory]

There were a good reason why Labour were in opposition for eighteen years; they weren't up to the job and the people didn't trust them.
It has taken 11 years of B.Liar Blair and Bluster Brown for people to realise that nothing has changed. They still aren't up to the job and people still dont't trust them, and frankly this will most likely never change.

Will this week be pivotal? I doubt it. There are many who understandably don't see the Tory Party as a credible alternative. Here is a clear opportunity for Cameron to show what he stands for. He mustn't mess it up.

[Scouse Tory]

Sorry folks: I work in an office with 34 bright, enquiring folk and none of them has given this issue a second glance. It drips with the arcane language of parliamentarianism and the party hierarchy has done a poor job of articulating why this should matter to the man on the Bootle omnibus. Ergo, no one gives a shite (we all do here, but this is the home of the converted).