Tory lead trimmed to 3%

Events are moving so fast now but MORI has just published an opinion poll lead for the Tories of just 3%.

Compared to one month ago, the Conservatives are down 5% to 40%.  Labour are up 7% to 37%.  The LibDems are down 2% to 12%.  The fieldwork was carried out from 14th to 16th November.  As the CH graphic records, the ConHome Poll of Polls is now back in hung parliament territory:

1.15pm: "Brown’s personal ratings have increased from last month: while half (50%) remain dissatisfied with Gordon Brown, this figure has dropped 9 points from 59% last month and 19 points from 69% in September. In addition, his satisfaction ratings have risen six points to 41% in November. It seems that Brown’s leadership during the current economic situation (both nationally and internationally) has served to improve his personal ratings with the public." (From MORI).

Comments

[Simon]

This was bound to happen - people thinking about a short-term injection of life into our economic system rather than the long term problems which Brown's plans will cause.

[Norm Brainer]

Totally predicted but still incomprehendable why anyone but those dependant would vote labour.
Even if they thought Conservatives would be bad that's still no excuse.

[resident leftie]

This LibDem squeeze seems highly implausible. I think it's a rogue.

I do hope that Labour don't take this too seriously, or there is the awful chance of a snap election and a completely unprepared novice Tory administration attempting to preside over a recession with potentially disaterous consquences.

[Brownian Motion]

And this is BEFORE we hit you with cut, cut, cut attacks.

I have a spring in my step again.

[Louise]

@Norm - ask my father. He is firmly back in the Labour camp now after being an adherent of Cameron's for a long time.

I don't have any other answers except "George Osborne" as a reason for him - a senior manager in a firm facing bankruptcy due to the housing price slump - voting Labour again and singing Brown's praises.

This seems a pretty "rogue" poll but I'll have a look at it later on. I actually think that the LD squeeze would be better taken seriously, as they had a charismatic leader in Kennedy but killed the goose that laid the golden egg somewhat there. My feeling is that things are polarising again; while that is good news for the Tories and might help us win some seats which should have been taken last time, it may suggest we are going back to a direct Labour/Tory split.

I'm not psephologist - my interest is in electoral fraud - but it looks like the lead is into single figures to stay for the moment. I'm not sure how much impact today's announcement from Cameron will have, but unless he puts something on the table soon I think he will have lost people like my parents for good, I'm afraid. I will lobby them hard for Tory votes at an election, but so far me not intervening in their decisions gives me a better barometer than if I tried to argue against them. They had enough of that last time round and I think they voted "other than Tory" because of me trying to shove the party down their throats. In an ideal world of course, neither of them would have any hesitation in voting Tory (well, my mum is a lifelong LibDem, I know cos I helped her vote when I was too young in 1992 and 1997) but they are more use to me at the moment as weathervanes rather than lightning conductors.

Which paper is this in, incidentally?

[Mr Disgusted]

Maybe if people knew what to expect from Dave they would be more inclined to vote Tory. Dave's all pink and fluffy and vague, who wants to vote for that?

[Harris]

Yes it´s all crumbling for the Tories, and how. Osborne out NOW.

[Norm Brainer]

This LibDem squeeze seems highly implausible. I think it's a rogue.

Exactly... There has been some critisism about both brown and tories, but it's common knowledge that Vince Cable is hero of the world; but then clegg compensates for that somewhat.

[GB£.com]

That's bizarre.

With so much praise of Osborne's recent excellence from fellow Tories, I'd have expected Labour to be on the ropes not back in the running as the largest party.

Why are the public failing to recognize Osborne's brilliance? These people should be banned from voting.

But still, ConHome was bang on the money again. The tide has indeed turned for Osborne, it has turned back to Labour having the most MP's.

[Peter Buss]

So Labour are 3% behind but 4 short of an overall majority. What a dreadful electoral system we have when the Toies are 3% ahead but would land up with significantly fewer seats than Labour.

[Cleethorpes Rock]

Out come the gleeful Labout trolls. No doubt Mr Derek Garraway will be sending his minions out into media land to tell everyone how the nasty Tories will be sacking nurses, privatising air, tipping the elderly out of wheelchairs, turning down the heating in Old Folks' homes and selling ambulances for scrap.

Osborne is playing the long game. People aren't stupid and will see through Brown's Christmas bonanza once the red letters start dropping on the doormats in the new year.

[Harris]

I bet those who smugly predicted a generation of Tory hegemony in the heady days of summer are not feeling quite so smug now. It´s little wonder the prospect of Cameron as PM is so distant when vast tracts of the country are no-go areas, and contributors to sites like this talk of Scotland, Wales and the urban north as the "McBroon" heartlands that are too thick or dependent to vote for the Tories and therefore don´t matter. What stupidity, what arrogance!!

[Roberts]

Is George Osborne the Conservatives' Sarah Palin ?

[Georger]

I have to say that (sadly) that a substantial reason for this is that the lack of discipline on the right of the party about GO has handed Labour propoganda victories on a plate.

[Harris]

"Osborne is playing the long game"

¿Que?

There´s an election due before too long mate, just how long is his game?

[gezmond007]

Well done Mr Osborne and Mr Cameron and this before the tax cuts which are being offered by Brown . Friends of mine with a tracker morgage have just had their monthly payment reduced by over £200. they are now going to support Labour and are looking forward to more tax cuts.

Cameron has made the biggest mistake of his political life. As I said before the 20% lead has nearly gone.

People support Labours policies and need help now. The tory policy of complaining about Labours spending plans have backfired in a big way !

[Tim Montgomerie]

Do you really believe that Georger?

[pp]

I think it is artifically low.

Todays events will almost certainly boost the tory position (unless the country really has gone mad!) - once the pre-budget report is out (Brown will be drafting it now, busy stealing anything he can from the tories). He chickened out of an election, he could well chicken out of borrowing to spend...

Then we will get a real idea of where the public stand.

[Clive]

"People aren't stupid and will see through Brown's Christmas bonanza once the red letters start dropping on the doormats in the new year."
Cleethorpes Rock

The trouble is that elections, particularly close elections, are actually won by a very few people who only make their minds up at the last minute after deciding what is in it for them. They have no political philosophy or allegiance and I'm afraid I believe a lot of them are rather stupid!

[Tony Makara]

Hopefully this will lull Labour into calling an early election and give us the opportunity to state our case before the nation. Gordon Brown dare not wait until the recession really bites.

[Iain]

As we are told the Shadow Chancellor is brilliant, and a brilliant tactician, clearly this collapse in support for the Conservatives can have nothing to do with Osborne and his Shadow Treasury team, so I think it important that an analysis is done of the opposition shadow ministers to see whose failing the cause.

I haven't heard much from the Shadow Minister for Culture, should the finger be pointed at him, for his failure to lay out a Conservative policy on culture ?

[Daniel]

The fall in petrol prices will have benefited Labour, as it is easy for voters to (mis-)interpret it as evidence that government pressure on oil companies is working. But the Conservatives have a much deeper problem. Cameron's entire strategy has been based on an (implicit) acceptance of Blairite economic policy, coupled with an assumption (reasonable at the time) that social issues had replaced economic issues as the major cause of concern for the electorate. The Tories appear to have had no contingency plan for an economic slump, and it has left them without a coherent policy alternative because (unlike Obama in the US) they cannot plausibly present themselves to the electorate as having a convincing critique of the neo-liberal policy excesses that caused the financial crisis in the first place. Maybe if the Tories had had a much needed debate about economic philosophy in the first 2 years of Cameron's leadership, and shown a greater willingness to abandon out-dated Thatcherite dogma about the role of the state, they would be in a stronger position now. Letwin's thinking on 'sociocentric' Toryism is starting to look embarrassingly dated.

[Cleethorpes Rock]

When I refer to the long game, I include the time running up to today. The Tories have been careful to not promise too much by way of tax cuts in order to appear responsible. They have earned the right to talk about how reckless Brown is being in borrowing the country into recession.

I think polls conducted after today's reality check from Cameron may shift back when people realise just how much of a ride Brown is taking them for.

[Raj]

There´s an election due before too long mate, just how long is his game?

He's not playing it that long given the comments he made recently and the praise he got for them.

+++

gezmond

Friends of mine with a tracker morgage have just had their monthly payment reduced by over £200. they are now going to support Labour and are looking forward to more tax cuts.

And what will they do when the tax cuts are reversed?

http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/news/politics/article5176571.ece

Oh of course, silly me, Labour HQ will have doubtlessly told you in confidence that will happen after the election and then it will be too late for your friends to change their vote.

Unfortunately come the election campaign Cameron & co will quote those comments all the time, so if Labour wants to win they will have to find a way to do it without short-term tax cut bribes.

[London Tory]

Of course Osborne is to blame.

I started to get worried last weekend when that coiffeured Labour puff ball Rawnsley argued in his column that Osborne should stay. He is down Mandelson's trousers, so to speak, so I think we can work out a Labour strategy here.

Others bloggers like Iain Dale- the man who turned a Lib Dem/Tory marginal into a safe yellow seat- are simply in a Westminster bubble of their own, one in which G.O is some kind of political heavyweight.

We cannot win a General Election with Osborne as Shadow Chancellor. The Tory village may love him, but the electorate don't.

[Raj]

Daniel

Maybe if the Tories had had a much needed debate about economic philosophy in the first 2 years of Cameron's leadership

That may be correct, but Cameron had more pressing problems concerning decontaminating the Conservative brand. Given the 2005 focus groups kept binning policies they liked as soon as they found out they came from the Conservatives, the clean-up was the priority.

[Ralph]

I really loath '[add person] was a [add party] supporter but after [add person or event] I' moving to [add party]' type posts as they assume that people are stupid enough to fall for them.

Not a great poll for the Tories but after the media's campaign against GO and their bigging up of Gordon it's not that shocking. And it's only one poll (though I'm sure the BBC will have it on every possible bulletin).

[bring it on]

I'll admit it. I have never been converted to Dave - I didn't see what the point of a conservative party led by his faction would achieve to make it worth voting for. I had scaled back my involvement with the party and resigned myself to a soggy left consensus.

Now the fight is back on - if he loses the election all true conservative will have another chance to get back control of our party and install someone whose convictions we shares.

Bring it on I say - we need change in the Tory party, Change We Can Believe In!

[Northern Tory]

1. Osborne is politically toxic - he may recover but the jury is out.

2. We have been very poor on the economy - the electorates main concern

3. Mandelson and Campbell are now in full swing.

We need to look more representative of the country and we need to look less inexperienced...bring in some big hitters...any two from Davis, Clarke, Redwood, Pickles, IDS

Look at the way Obama is widening his circle with Clinton and Republicans...

That's my view for what it's worth. Mistakes have been made but we can get things back on track...

Cameron has got to sideline the soundbites and start making some big decisions about the team...

[Raj]

Of course Osborne is to blame.

Why? I don't think many people really took much notice of him until his comments at the weekend. And you may say that's part of the problem, but that alone can't help Labour boost their lead by so much.

I started to get worried last weekend when that coiffeured Labour puff ball Rawnsley argued in his column that Osborne should stay. He is down Mandelson's trousers, so to speak, so I think we can work out a Labour strategy here.

Up until recently they were doing their best to undermine him even when the polls were already looking better for them. Perhaps they've decided one way to push him out is to pretend they want him to stay?

There's no point in trying to out-think Mandelson when it comes to getting rid of members of the Shadow Cabinet. Even if they don't want him to leave forcing him out would still be a victory for them and properly spun with the media gobbling it up could kill off the chances of a Tory majority.

Or perhaps that's what some people here want, so they can get rid of Cameron and put David Davis in.

[gezmond007]

Raj , I think you live in another blue world where no one else or their views exist.

Why can't you listen to what's going on around you in the real world.
A lot of people have just been given a huge drop in their morgage payments , in September people were given a tax cut, Petrol prices are going down , food prices are going down, consumer goods are going down , inflation is going down,

It,s no wonder that people are changing their voting preference.

Cameron and Osborne have just made a big mistake , they have now given Brown and co the opportunity to beat them over the head with their plans to cut services , schools, social services , etc.

Come on Raj try to look at the full picture ! Not just the one through a Blue mist.

[GB£.com]

I think next week will be key.

If Brown's promised tax cuts are not big enough to justify the hype, he will be punished and deliver GE victory to the Tories.

However, if the cuts are mouth-wateringly big, making a real difference to help all struggling households now, victory will probably go to Labour.

I'd say that the result is out of Cameron's hands now. Hopefully Brown will bottle it again.

[JohnfromCamberley]

What determines the timing of an election is most definitely not polls like this. We already know that what Labour HQ looks at is polling in the marginals, particularly the constituencies where Labour have majorities less than 5000.

This poll, and indeed all the polls we have seen for months now, tell us nothing on that score - nothing at all.

[Change George To Win]

Who should replace Cameron if we lose?

My preferance is for Davis, although any of Duncan, Hague, Hunt or Clarke would be preferable to what we have now.

[Raj]

Raj , I think you live in another blue world where no one else or their views exist

No, I just live in the real world where money doesn't grow on trees and people can be, oddly enough, short-sighted.

A lot of people have just been given a huge drop in their morgage payments , in September people were given a tax cut, Petrol prices are going down , food prices are going down, consumer goods are going down , inflation is going down

And little of that is to do with the government. Mortgage payments are dropping from a high, prices and inflation are coming down from highs, etc.

The flip side is that savings rates are falling so again there will be no reason to save and people will again have nothing put aside for a rainy day.

It,s no wonder that people are changing their voting preference

And they will change it again when they realise the tax "cuts" are bribes to get them to vote Labour and then be stiffed with tax rises after the election. It is Brown and Labour who have made the mistake in not finding a way to make the cuts permanent.

they have now given Brown and co the opportunity to beat them over the head with their plans to cut services , schools, social services , etc.

Ah, yes, crucial policies like ID cards that pilots have threatened to strike over and IT databases that don't work. Now remind me how these equate to cuts in services, schools, social services, etc. Sorry that's just the usual Labour propaganda - no one buys that.

[Norm Brainer]

What determines the timing of an election is most definitely not polls like this.

I think if we can keep the polls around this mark until May (would they really have one in the winter?!) then there's a chance they may call an early election - it's the only hope.

[Norm Brainer]

oh.. someone using em for italics eh! better?

[gezmond007]

Ordinary people , those who are not political, the don't knows, about 20% of the electorate who couldn't care less who's policies give them more cash will support any party who supports them .

Thats why there has been a shift to Labour. People can be shortsighted but when times are difficult they think about themselves , not how the government will pay for the future.

[Betty Norman]

I'd vote for Grayling to replace Cameron

[HF]

We need an all out assault on Brown over the economy and other matters.

From January 1st can we also have:-

1. An end to the part timers.
2. An end to the "two hatters" that are not solely focused on one dept.
3. Sack Caroline Spellman because, she is as good as useless being invisible in the media.
4. Bring back Davis because we need every big hitter we can get into the shadow cabinet.
5. Persuade IDS to join the shadow cab.

[Raj]

People can be shortsighted but when times are difficult they think about themselves , not how the government will pay for the future.

But if the government is quoted as saying they will have to pay more afterwards they may come to their senses and not vote Labour.

My suggestion for a Conservative TV ad is Brown (or someone supposed to be him) running up credit card debts and then passing it on to someone else to pay off. Perhaps even his children....

[Duncan]

Those real Conservatives calling for Cameron and Osborne's head should be ashamed of themselves. Now is the time for calm reflection rather than rash knee-jerk reactions. We are still ahead of Labour in every opinion poll for the last year and are refining our message. Please realise there is a real danger of each negative comment about the leadership ending up being quoted in Labour-supporting papers as Mandelson and Campbell's spin operation starts up. Lets not do our opponents bidding for them!

[Angelo Basu]

Well, falling petrol prices, tax cuts and big reductions in mortgage interest are bound to help the government be more popular. If the measures being taken have the effect of keeping this "feel good factor" going and we don't get massive increases in unemployment hitting "ordinary" people, regardless of the longer term impact Brown will get the benefit. Maybe 2009/10 will be 1992 again. That's probably what Labour is hoping for.

I imagine things will flip back against them pretty sharpish if any of these indicators turns the other way ahead of an election though.

I too have been fortunate enough to have had a tracker mortgage and will also see a saving of over £200 in December to add to the £100 drop for November. Sadly, my tracker expires in January 09 and the best fixed rate deals are all way above the tracker rate (there are no trackers available as far as I can see) and indeed higher than the Standard Variable Rate. With fuel prices falling and inflation likely to fall, what price an interest rate increase by the BoE in the not too distant future to wipe out the short term gains for those lucky enough to have trackers? Add in continuing rises in unemployment and it stops being such a rosy picture for the great helmsman.

[NorthernMonkey]

Hmm, 3% points down, but we'd still have the most seats!

Maybe this first-past-the-post malarky isn't so bad after all!

There's nothing greater than hearing Tories moan about the electoral system they so love to defend!

[NigelC]

Raj 14.29,
Just use the Rory Bremmer video from yesterday.

I expect some people realise they are economically in the same mess as the Government- up to their eyes in debt. Voting anything but NuLab would mean them recognising that they were personally at fault too.

[Mapa]

nearly there dave <39 v.soon.

must be christmas round the corner!

if dave & george don't get a clear working majority expect Boris J & David Davis to go for it.

[London Tory]

I just feel that a lot of Tories were taken in by Osborne when he squeaked out his IHT announcement at last years Conference. He has done nothing positive since. Not a thing.

We need to win in Calder Valley, Barrow, and in Clwyd this time to get a majoriry.

Do you seriously think that Osborne is a help in these seats ?

[Perdix]

Daniel - " Tories had no plan for economic slump." And what was Labour's plan?
Currently Cameron has to fight for policies that will help him govern if he wins the next election. If he wins but accepts Labour's made-up-as-they-go-along policies he will only have himself to blame for greater difficulties.
Brown just wants to stay in power and b****r the consequences for the country.

[JohnfromCamberley]

Just to extend my earlier point about polling in the marginals, my own suspicion is that this is going rather better for us than we are seeing in the more broadly based polls.

Labour seem to have a lot of the press in their pockets at the moment - could it be that they are managing to discourage the newspapers from undertaking polls in the marginals (because of the suppressing effect they might have on the Labour vote at large)?

We also have to be a bit careful about focussing our attention on the mythical "floating voters" - they are rarer birds than you might think. The real concern is those people with fixed voting intentions but floating tendency actually to go out and vote. If you get under the bonnet and look at how our earlier big poll leads came about, it was largely from the demotivation of firm labour voters, just as the Blair landslides came from demotivation of our own people. It is no accident that Labour are so keen on postal voting!

Winning the election is about getting our people out to vote, enthusing them, convincing them this time, frankly, that they have to vote in order to save the country. It's a fact too, however negative it sounds, that a good hard slog against Labour, their record and the real consequences of them retaining power, will reduce the tendency of firm Labour voters actually to get out of their chairs and get down to the polling stations.

[Peter Buss]

For crying out loud all you Cameon haters - even this Poll has the Tories on 40% - something we only dreamed about for 15 years. Its happened because Cameron understood that the brand had to be contaminated.Give the guy some credit and stop believing that more right wing red blooded meat will somehow swing this back to us if only its fed to the electorate.

[rob]

Camerons huge mistake was to sit back and enjoy the 20 point poll lead, should have been out there firming it up, not waiting for Gordon to keep on messing it up! Now I fear its to late people are returning to NURSE.

Did think it was a mistake to use the soundbite A MAN WITH A PLAN then not announce what exactly that plan was!

Have given the impression to much over the past few months of just sitting back waiting for the government to do something then react to has made it seem they havent got a clue what to do

[David]

So the polls are all over the place - some showing the Tory lead growing, others showing it shrinking - there's little trend, and the Con vote has remained in the 40s. All this on the back of Brown spinning a narrative that he's saving the world, helped by the media, and with a Tory resurgance only in the last couple of days. And people are calling for Cameron's head? Madness, if you ask me. This is a time to stick together, stay on the now - clear - message, and drum home to the public that these Labour bastards are taking them for a ride.

[David Burbage]

It has come to something when Rory Bremner puts across better political information on the national debt than the BBC or anyone else......

[RichardJ]

According to PB this has come about due to an increase in Labour certain to vote-ers.

[Kevin Davis]

This is the Lib vote being squeezed hard by Labour.

[JohnfromCamberley]

RichardJ 14:57

My point exactly.

I think you will find also that the last two polls, with quite different results, were based on remarkably similar source data, but remarkably different statistical treatments to try to account for certainty to vote.

Changing tack somewhat. I think it would be absolute madness for us to change anyone on the front bench. We would look like disorganised schoolboys, which is playing into exactly the spin theme that Brown likes the most. That is why he is so keen that we should do it. It is a first rule of battle that you identify what the enemy would most like you to do, and then do something else. Labour clearly want us to sack Osborne; even if we can't think of more positive reasons, that reason is enough to determine that we should not.

[Raj]

Duncan

Please realise there is a real danger of each negative comment about the leadership ending up being quoted in Labour-supporting papers as Mandelson and Campbell's spin operation starts up. Lets not do our opponents bidding for them!

Why do you think some people (stress the "some") here are as unpleasant/obstinantly critical as they are? It's rather obvious....

[JohnfromCamberley]

Just a final thought - has anyone noticed how frequently the Beeb roll out a left-leaning female interviewer to tackle Osborne? Practically every time he is on Today, it's Sarah Montague who interviews him, and of course on WATO it is usually Martha Kearney. He does less well against them than the male interviewers, such as Marr this Sunday.

I'm just wondering if Osborne's Achilles heel is that he is too polite?

[Iain]

JohnfromCamberley , but he didn't do so well against Krishnan Guru-Murthy today....

http://www.channel4.com/news/authors/krishnan+gurumurthy/106080#bio

[David Belchamber]

The important thing is that we are still polling 40% or 40% +. However, Brown has made up a great deal of ground, because the public at large has not been made aware that the domestic economy is in such a mess largey as a result of Gordon Brown's actions.

All sorts of conservatives in the last week or so have told the story but as they are not on the shadow front bench they have not received any great publicity.

Had John Major's excellent article, John Redwood's excellent blogs or a summary of Howard Flight's excellent pamphlet "From Boom to Bust" been in the Sun, then things might be different.

We simply have to make "Gordon Brown's recession" stick in peoples' minds. As David Burbage laments:

"It has come to something when Rory Bremner puts across better political information on the national debt than the BBC or anyone else......"

I only hope that the conservative party would be ready for an election if Brown calls one in the next month or so. They were patently not ready when Brown very nearly did call one.

[Patsy Sergeant]

Davud Burbage @ 14.49 'It has come to something when Rory Bremner puts across better political information on the national debt than the BBC or anyone else.'

Why on earth should the BBC put out the correct message as indicated by the IMF, their boss is Gordon Brown, surely you KNOW that? So why would they do different, even if their researchers could understand the language of the communique!!

[Malcolm Dunn]

Don't worry peple. This poll was taken before Cameron and Osborne started to hit back. Now they have we'll see what happens.
Like others I've been more impressed with Osborne in the last couple of days than in the preceding two months.
I wouldn't worry about the trolls either. They only come out when its bad news eh Gezmond?

[Frankenburt]

Bye Bye george
http://ollysonions.blogspot.com/2008/11/teenager-attempts-to-become-youngest.html

[ChrisD]

"I have to say that (sadly) that a substantial reason for this is that the lack of discipline on the right of the party about GO has handed Labour propoganda victories on a plate."

I have to agree with you there Georger. In fact, I said something similar on PB.com yesterday during an interesting discussion about those on the right who see a *pure* Thatcherite message as being far more important than a Conservative government.

Even if it means another 5 years of Labour, and they still cannot see just how damaging their modus operandi is. Maybe its being so far away from the Westminster bubble, but when you watched the same show, with the same usual suspects adhering to the same old tired script, you learn to spot the signs.

The same group were gunning for Annabel Goldie and the Scottish Tories a while ago, right in the middle of a bl**dy Scottish election!

As I said on an earlier thread, when ever this crew start backstabbing and briefing, the timing is impeccable!
GE anyone?

[Carol-Ann]

What was that about Osborne being an asset????????

[Daniella]

Cameron should absolutely stay as leader but Osborne should be moved to party chairman. The economic team need to be serious and credible and come up with big ideas ie large rise in the tax threshold to remove the low paid from paying tax. We also need the cabinet to be more representative and not a public school boy clique. We need some big hitters and some reaching out to say someone like Frank Field.

[Pete L]

David Cameron's strategy of 'decontaminating the Tory brand' whilst at the same time highlighting any 'faux-pas' by the Labour government is fine as far as it goes and certainly a low risk approach. However, because there is currently no tangible Conservative policy agenda or conviction behind it any change in the 'business as usual' e.g. a major crisis, tends to put the vacuuous nature of the Cameron stance into sharp relief.
I'm no fan of George Osborne, but making him a whipping boy for the latest downturn of Tory fortunes is in my view as unfair as it is unrealistic.

[ChrisD]

Carol-Ann, he is more of an asset to the Conservative party than Gordon Brown has been to the Labour party.

Why? Because he is enthusiastic and motivated to further the cause of his party and see a Conservative government. His strategy is totally focused on his party, and not his own personal political ambitions.

Brown desperately wants to do a Major without the same exit after a GE, and the over riding concern of Gordon Brown, is Gordon Brown’s career.
If Labour are tanking and heading for a big defeat at then next GE, he won’t be there to lead the troops. This man will only be around if there is a real possibility *he* might win. Labour, forget it, and that has been their biggest mistake in letting this man become leader without a contest.

And if you have any doubts, just look back on his economic stewardship of the UK with his own personal political timetable attached.
We are partly in this borrowing mess because Labour had a GE to win in 2005, and Brown had a premiership to wrestle from Blair’s grasp.
Brown’s last act as a Chancellor was a bit of political theatre to try and wrong foot Cameron at his last budget, it was the 2p cut in income tax that became known as the 10p tax con. Yep, he screwed the lower paid to try and bribe those middle income voters he was after.

So, at this moment the Tories are still solid on 40%, and that is a real testimony to the leadership of our party and their strategy.

Now, lets see if the usual suspects can change, they are only ever heard vocally or anonymously when they percieve their own party to be weakened, even if its at a dangerous point in the electoral cycle for our party.

Can they really prove they have changed, and that their over riding target is a Conservative GE victory, getting rid of this discredited government as soon as possible.
Or, are they prepared to see Brown and his crew almost destroy our economy if they think that will finally see the electorate listening to their message?

[Ælfheah]

The simple truth is that the Left has now won quite decisively in America and where America leads the rest of the world is bound to follow (with the possible exception of New Zealand). Those people here who are obssessed with "Tories vs. Labour" domestic politics should wake up and live in the real world. Everyone knows that Obama is the nice new leftwing President of America who will usher in a wonderful new era in which a tiny minority of rich people will pay for everything and the rest of us won't have to pay for anything ever again. Obama promises tax-cuts for everyone else, Brown promises tax-cuts for everyone else. Come on, people! Most voters in this country have never heard of George Osborne. And the very last thing they're going to want to hear is about spending cuts.

[strapworld]

I do not believe this poll and I believe that the Tories MUST do something to control opinion polls. They should have an enquiry (once elected) to look at the methodology and ascertain if any bias towards any political party is shown. Then, if necessary legislate to ensure that ALL companies have to prove WHO they speak to and HOW and WHEN.

NOW I would ask ALL Tory supporters to email ALL their contacts and simply ask them as a result of this 'opinion poll' do they believe it! and if there was to be a general election whom would they support. (Better still if you ask your contacts to ask their contacts etc. etc.)

I bet IF we all did it we would get a far fairer result than this nonsense.

DO NOT BELIEVE.

[Carol-Ann]

ChrisD and your piece is exactly why Osborne should be party chairman.

[ChrisD]

"ChrisD and your piece is exactly why Osborne should be party chairman."

Really, but that is what Labour want right politically. And you are a Labour supporter....

The more desperate you become to try and see Osborne shifted right now, the more worried I become about Brown and Darling's shannigans in the Treasury.

Osborne really is feared by this Labour government, because he is a real street fighter politically, and that is the last thing that Brown needs right now as he screws the economy further.

He is portrayed as one of those nice posh Tories by them, but, when it comes to political fighting he is anything but one.
And that really scares Brown, he knows that Osborne can, will, take the risk to call him on his figures and his competence.

And that is when Brown looks weak.

[Josh]

Dave has been found out. The electorate do not care about the future, they care about the moment. When tax cuts are announced next week, Labour will surge in the polls. People are already saving money with the interest rate cuts, people who I know would NEVER vote Labour, but now will. Dave and Osborne need to get a grip. And it is no good coming on TV like they did today spouting off about the Government and complaining. The electorate have shown they get turned off by this.

My prediction. 'Brown' will wipe the floor with Dave at tomorrows PMQS

[Iain]

"I'm no fan of George Osborne, but making him a whipping boy for the latest downturn of Tory fortunes is in my view as unfair as it is unrealistic."

PeteL, you make your own luck, here Osborne didn't need luck, he has been handed a gift as an opposition economic spokesman, yet with gift of this once in a centaury jack pot he has managed to turn a solid gold gift into an electoral liability.

[Louise]

pp - you are beginning to sound rather fascist. God help us if you and yours get in, we'd end up making Pinochet's Chile look like Narnia. My father is back in the Labour camp after a few years of supporting Cameron, and he is exactly the sort of person we need onside - senior manager, company on the verge of going under because of the house price slump. Talking to him, Osborne is the liability here. You may say he is the victim of propaganda or spin but then we should be hitting back with propaganda of our own. All we do is look like we haven't got a clue.

The worst thing in the world is for one set of people to control something that doesn't give them the result they want. Mike Smithson (comment 137) says this poll is well-founded and up-to-date. Sadly if you read other sites I don't think Cameron and Osborne are hitting back.

I don't think the game's up - but we have had a long time to do something about this and the leading Tories just look nervous now. If it is all about their spin vs ours, we need to be beating Mandelson at his own game. So why aren't we?

[Just a thought]

The same Ipsos-Mori that gave Livingstone a 6 per cent lead in the mayoral elections when they were asked to produce it?

Another fake media narative poll, formulated by the number 10 spin machine.
Labour only got 35.2% of the vote in the last GE. A depression and bankrupting the country are not going to increase their popularity, but as usual, the ConHome UKrappers, Labour Trolls and swivel-eyed loons are having kittens!

[Tedious]

"If it is all about their spin vs ours, we need to be beating Mandelson at his own game.So why aren't we?"

Because Labour have controled most of the Mass Media, in case you haven't noticed, for the last 11 or more years? In particular the BBC.

You really write tedious posts Louise, but then again, you are a Labour Troll.

[ChrisD]

Louise, you are a troll!

And your understanding of the figures in the polls would make the story of your dad being a fan of Cameron and then...oh, jumping onto the Labour bandwagon hilarious!

The Tory leaning Libdem voters drifted back to the Conservatives a while ago, AND STAYED!
Its one of the reasons that we have been consistently staying at around 40% in the polls.

Now, the Libdem polling figures really appear to be tanking, and that is because the their Labour leaning voters are heading back to the government as we see this polarisaton in the polls between Labour and the Tories.

So, can you give up on peddling this little story, or admit that maybe Dad was a Libdem voter returning to the Labour fold.
Some how, I doubt that if he is savvy about the real economic picture out there, he will be ever so slightly worried about what this government is doing with our economy in the short term, and what it means for people with businesses in the longer term.

Or, am I to believe that he will reward the man that helped cause an uncontrollable housing/credit bubble that has burst and is really hurting many people out there?

[m dowding]

The Labour Trolls are recruiting. A new tactic is to target a strong Conservative blog and carpet bomb. The polite and gullible here fall for it. The Guido mob just laughs very loudly at their pathetic stupidity.
This "poll", like the YouGov poll is a joke. After Mandelson and Campbell, (those "enfants terrible" by reputation, rather nasty pieces of work in truth), have bribed or blackmailed people such as Kellner and The BBC twits, a rigged poll or ballot is easypeasy.
The reality of 3 million admitted unemployed and nearer 10MILLION not earning a wage, all the borrowing Brown has lined up from The Chinese will be a drop in the ocean.
You, Carol Ann, are a Labour lickspittle. You and your ilk are part of the coming holocaust this economy has created. If you believe, as you lot all seem to, that your ideology and expertise is of value to the poverty round the corner, you are as delusional as the rest of your discredited party.
Brown needs consumer spending at the levels seen over the last 11 years. Guess what? The money has gone and the poor are about to swell in unimaginable numbers. Well done Labour!

[The Bishope Swine]

Norm said:

"Totally predicted but still incomprehendable why anyone but those dependant would vote labour.
Even if they thought Conservatives would be bad that's still no excuse."

The fact is Brown has drawn many millions of people into dependency with his tax credits scheme. The answer is simple; we must agree to keep tax credits for at least the first two years after an election, and vow to ensure that those who work will continue to prosper under a Conservative government. So there is a policy issue that we need to address right now. Tax credits will have to be dealt with in a sensitive manner.

[resident leftie]

Posted by: m dowding | November 18, 2008 at 18:01

This "poll", like the YouGov poll is a joke. After Mandelson and Campbell, (those "enfants terrible" by reputation, rather nasty pieces of work in truth), have bribed or blackmailed people such as Kellner and The BBC twits, a rigged poll or ballot is easypeasy.

Let's just be clear about this. You are saying that members of the government have deliberately and criminally rigged this poll back blackmailing and bribing the owners of MORI? Did they rig the YouGov one too?
If you have evidence of bribery and corruption on this scale, you could bring the government down. By all means share it with us.

This poll doesn't seem plausible, but this wild-eyed conspiracy theory isn't worthy of you.

Also, I thought the editor had banned people from accusing others of being trolls. Please correct me if I'm wrong.

[Louise fan]

Louise, you are a troll!

A troll isn't sombody you don't agree with
A troll isn't a labour supporter.
A troll is sombody who posts simple to get a reaction.
I don't think Louise is a troll.

[ChrisD]

I suggest that everyone ignores Strapworlds [email protected].

He either trying to be incredible droll, or he is talking complete garbage!

[Josh]

so this poll is a joke? But when the Tories were 20 points ahead in the Summer, that was a good poll.hahahaha You Tories really do not like it up you, do you?

Your party is being found out again. The good old BBC news at 6 just had old slaphead Dave on. They then went on to tell the millions watching that hospitals et al would suffer under the Tories. That is all who are watching will remember from the news tonight.

[john]

This thread has been taken over by trolls.
Get your finger out Editor.
Check out Politicalbetting.com.
They don't seem to have the problem.

[Josh]

So John.......

You now want to censor people who don't have the same opinion as you? The NASTY party is on the way back.

[Josh]

So John.......

You now want to censor people who don't have the same opinion as you? The NASTY party is on the way back.

[Anon]

Extraordinary, Louise the number of disaffected family members you appear to have - your brother-in-law, your sister's boyfriend, your father....! Now time for you to unplug your No. 10 computer and go and have that early evening drink before you head off to a CLP meeting!

[Another Richard]

"Osborne really is feared by this Labour government, because he is a real street fighter politically, and that is the last thing that Brown needs right now as he screws the economy further."

ChrisD, you keeping say things like this but where is your evidence? Unless you have Labour connections then you're merely projecting your hero worship of Osborne onto others.

Osborne hasn't been doing much street fighting recently, instead he said 'I support bailouts' and then disappeared for a month. In any case if he's so good at it then shouldn't he be Party Chairman (instead of the invisible weakling Spelman) and not in his present job at which he is so unqualified.

And for those who keep talking about 'playing the long game' and '18 month strategies' what are we going to do if there's an election in March? We need action and commitment now.

[Gloy Plopwell]

Still a significant vote for us,
Lib dems get unfair coverage, but it's very excriting knowing that, with stupendous momentum, the wind will change.
Still expect to overtake Labour abour Christmas and the Tories a year later, wining in 2010.

[YMT]

Am I worried? no! Why? Because this is expected behaviour from a public expecting a tax cut. Humans are fickle, the temptation of tax cuts will of course have a massive boost for Labour and it doesn't help the Lib dems are vaporising.

At the moment the public hears, Labour for Tax cuts, Conservatives against in simplistic terms. Of course that's going to hurt us, but! when this all goes pear shaped in 2009 then we'll see the real picture. We have to advocate a sensible non sensationalist tax policy. Remember the UK is going to go through a horrible time next year, the public are going to judge Labour on that, we have to provide a rock solid alternative and it has to be consistent.

Hold the course guys, its the only way.

[Mapa]

just seen dave on C4 - he was literally shouting as Jon Snow, what a sight!

[The Bishop Swine]

"And this is BEFORE we hit you with cut, cut, cut attacks.

I have a spring in my step again."

Enjoy your little spring it may even be followed by a short summer. Brown has only regained ground by hinting at a massive bribe. The vast majority of the sheep are simpletons it would seem or a least the floating simpletons have chanced upon the village fool competition. Imagine Brown actually cuts a few tax’s it will be what 1p in the pound? Do you imagine that will cure our economy. The dole queue will soon be around the block again. So Brown is committed to a few tax cuts followed by a snap election it would seem. He will have to time it just right because the peoples mood will plummet when the trurth about our broken economy is revealed.

[Julian Melford]

Labour have been allowed to choose their own battlefield - the economy. And even though Brown has run it appallingly, unthinking media hacks have been primed to parrot slogans like 'Tax Cuts Ahead'.

There are too many vapid spokespersons such as Villiers on transport and Lansley on Health, and for all his brilliant intellect, Osborne has simply allowed Labour to manage the media.

There has been government spin / charm offensives on
* tax cuts / car tax,
* immigration controls,
* petrol prices,
* power cuts,
* the right to sell in Lb/Oz,
* post office closures...
- and it's only on the last of these that Labour can remotely be seen to have delivered anything.

And Gordon's hyped blueprint for saving the world didn't go down too well at G20....

David needs to get the big artillery pounding where Labour is unpopular, such as Hoon blackmailing Greater Manchester over road pricing.

[ChrisD]

"ChrisD, you keeping say things like this but where is your evidence? Unless you have Labour connections then you're merely projecting your hero worship of Osborne onto others."

Sometimes I despair!

I have been a real fan of Osborne's for a long time, I noticed both him and Cameron before the 2005 GE, and I thought they were the ones to watch for the future.

I never envisaged them getting the leadership as soon as they did. But, rather than see that as a negative, it seems shows that how good they really were!

And as someone who has taken a great interest in the career of Gordon Brown, especially when he was still PM in waiting, I followed Osborne's performance against him at the despatch box.

And he really has been the only Shadow Chancellor who got under Brown's skin and rattled him.

You are living in the moment with your criticism, me, I prefer to stand back and watch the longer game. Its why I knew that Brown would be a disaster, and its why I won a bet with the Chair of an SNP association last year when Brown bottled that Autumn GE.

Oh, and my bet was placed about 6 weeks before Brown bottled it.

Osborne is good, in fact he is so good that Brown and his team want his scalp so badly they can taste it. They also want the Tories to panic and show their lack of cojones by committing electoral suicide just as the economy goes down the toilet. It will take the bad news off the front page!

The fact that Brown wants Osborne's scalp so badly indicates how personal it is, and if that doesn't tell you how good Osborne was at rattling, I don't know what else will!
But Brown only attacks those that are deemed to be a threat to him politically, ask the various members of his own government who have been on the receiving end of his briefing and plotting.

[Votedave]

It's 1978 all over again. We know what happened next.

[Iain]

"And he really has been the only Shadow Chancellor who got under Brown's skin and rattled him."

Well he didn't when a Times investigation turned up evidence that Brown had been warned about the damage removing ACT on pensions would do. Yet when the Conservatives called an opposition day debate on the subject it was Osborne who got clobbered. Here he was with all the cards yet flunked it. Hmmmmm that has a familiar ring about it, Osborne being gifted an open goal yet managing to miss, if not turning the opportunity to the Conservatives disadvantage.

As for Labour wanting his scalp, as far as I can see Osborne is getting most of his media support from Labour supporting commentators, like Richards of the Independent, that should tell you something, like Labour want Osborne kept in place.

[David (One of many)]

The trolls are getting lazy now. I was particularly impressed with the way Josh went from a fairly neutral 'ohh no, people I know who never vote Labour are going to now' to 'your party are evil' and 'slaphead Dave' in the space of 50 minutes.

[Wearside Tory]

With such a bloated state, incompetent administration and ailing economy the fight should be over. The question we should be asking is why aren't we hitting the buttons with the electorate...

Some of the post on here are hysterical but things aren't going well so DC has to take stock and make some changes to both policy, personnel and presentation...

The polls are all over the place but the Con Home Poll of Polls shows a narrowing of the gap so DC must act after Christmas - New Year, new start...new GOVERNMENT!!!

[The Bishops wife]

It's 1978 all over again. We know what happened next. 1979?

I feel in my bones that this will be far worse.