Tory lead cut to 5% in Sunday Times/YouGov poll

Political Betting is reporting that tomorrow's You Gov poll in the Sunday Times has the following standings for the parties:

Con - 41% (-1)

Lab - 36% (+3)

LD - 14% (-1)

So the Conservatives remain above the crucial 40% mark, but with a narrower lead.

We are also expecting a ComRes survey in tomorrow's Independent on Sunday, which we will run once it is published.

9.30am, Sunday, the graphic:

Comments

[NorthernMonkey]

Ooh err. Whatever happened to that 20+ lead?

Yes, that George Osborne is a real asset to you.

Please make sure you keep him as Shadow Chancellor and then hopefully by Christmas we'll be back in the lead.

[Edison Smith]

Hold on to your hats.

It's going to get worse.

ComRes due at 9pm could show level-pegging on margin of error...

[Edison Smith]

ComRes

Conservative 43% (+4)

Labour 32% (+1)

Lib Dem 12% (-4)

Other 13% (-1)

FLIPPIN ECK!

[David (One of many)]

ComRes is out - 43/32/12

http://blogs.independent.co.uk/openhouse/2008/11/what-is-happeni.html

That LD vote looks just too low, but maybe it's just the natural squeeze. I wonder when the fieldwork was carried out for both this and the YouGov - that might be telling.

[Gordon Dudgeon]

ComRes is now out or are you all watching XfactorDancingmatchoftheday. com

[Edison Smith]

David

1) I think the ComRes poll was more recent, taking into account much more of Baby P and unemplyment figures etc. That's unconfirmed though.

2) Lib Dem vote is low, but gone are the days when a majority of Lib Dem waverers would automatically go Labour over Tory.

[Andrew Woodman]

Com Res

Conservative 43% (+4)

Labour 32% (+1)

Lib Dem 12% (-4)

Other 13% (-1)

Fieldwork dates will be interesting!

[Gordon Dudgeon]

And you can be sure which Poll, Auntie Beeb will keep on about tomorrow.

[Mike]

From the ComRes poll :-

Tax cuts should be paid for by the government spending less rather than borrowing more
Agree 75%
Disagree 17%

Now stop being so timid!

[Edison Smith]

“ComRes, who telephoned 1010 GB adults on 12–13 November 2008.”

Rumour is the YouGov one is up to a fortnight old...

[David (One of many)]

Edison, I heard that YouGov was done on the same dates. But I also know for a fact that people were called by YouGov a week or so ago for a poll which never seemed to appear. Interesting...

[David (One of many)]

* When I say 'called by YouGov', I mean 'polled by YouGov'. I believe they do it online.

[Edison Smith]

David - surely the latter is right, that the polls were both done on the 12/13 and one of them is an 'outlier' of sorts.

Unfortunately I think if that were to be the case, the outlier is more likely to be ComRes...

Can't envisage YouGov tolerating the Sunday Times delaying publication by a week.

A week is a long time in politics!

[Tony Makara]

On the plus side it might tempt Labour into calling an early election before the recession gets any worse, and then, with the nation's mind focused on the issues, we can smack Labour all over the pitch. I wouldn't like to be in Labour's shoes trying to defend a wrecked economy and a trashed currency.

[Steve]

Camerons team are lightweight

48% AGREE!

Thats the important figure people will not vote for lightweights when times are tough!

[Matt Wright]

Interesting. The ComRes poll was done on the 12th and 13th. We were involved in a council by-election and on those days we were hearing support for the party stance on the Baby P situation. My gut feeling is that we have picked up slightly in the polls (incidentally we won the by-election). I think people prefer it when we are saying things as they are and being combative as an opposition. That is what oppositions are meant to do.

[Raj]

So the new polling averages are:

CON 42 (nc)
LAB 33 (nc)
LD 15 (-1)

David (one of many) interesting point on the "missed poll".

What I would say is that it is clear the Tory lead is staying above 40%.

The only real question is how high the Labour/Lib Dem vote is. Unless the Lib Dem vote is going to collapse at the next election, the polls that are showing them so low are probably wrong and some of the "Labour" votes will probably go back to them.

[Gezmond007]

Get rid of Osborne now , how much evidence do you need! Wake up ! Wake up ! Wake up ! Now!

[steve]

And how long it will be before conservatives
realise Cameron and Co are good a PR but peel away the makeover and there is nothing there, how can an opposition in this climate not be 25 points ahead! they may have the new labour how to get elected manual, but they seem to have missed a couple of chapters! if this was pre 97 labour would have been miles ahead they wouldnt have been playing catch up! and this is before what will surely be a giveaway budget and when it comes down to it people will not care whether it adds to borrowing!

If they cared about that so many people wouldnt be in debt up to their eyebrows! they will just see labour giving them back money when they need it and the conservatives acting like bank managers who moan when you go over your overdraft!

[A Cllr]

What evidence? 11 points clear in a ComRes poll for the Independent? Hardly a tory newspaper.

[A Cllr]

Edison Smith - what a foolish comment.

[David (One of many)]

Steve, I'd have more time for that question if:

a) It wasn't ridiculously leading.
b) They had asked the same of the actual cabinet, who have been invisible for the last month or so - particularly Darling.
c) The agree/disagree margin for the question is only something like 12% - something which can change quickly with that sort of questioning.

Gezmond seems to have fixed his sub-bridge internet connection.

[steve]

are not 11 points ahead its between 5 and 8 points and thats not enough, the electoral system favours labour,unless Cameron and Co stop flapping around and looking quite frankly like schoolboys on a training course then when it comes down to putting a cross on a ballot paper people will only vote on who they trust on the economy NOTHING else will matter

[TartanTory]

IMPORTANT - READ THIS!

I am on the You Gov mailing list for opinion polls and I took part in this one the other day. I must say it was the most awfully biased and leading poll I have ever seen.
One set of questions gave you positive statements about Gordon Brown's actions (strong handling of economic crisis etc) then a list of negative statements about the Conservatives (Not having any answers etc) and the next direct page asked you to chose a party to vote for.
I was staggered that throughout this entire poll, which contained many questions, that each and every one seemed to be leading the individual in a particular way.
I am not just being biased, I've done many of these before, and I know the usual format. MY only surprise that such a format and nature of questioning produced any Tory lead at all.

I would not trust the paper this poll was printed on!

[A Cllr]

Independent has us 11 points ahead.

[Tartan Tory]

Following on from my previous comment, does anyone know if it is possible to obtain a copy of the questions in the exact format the were given. It would certainly make an interesting ConHome story and humiliate and discredit YouGov!

[ChrisD]

"Edison, I heard that YouGov was done on the same dates. But I also know for a fact that people were called by YouGov a week or so ago for a poll which never seemed to appear. Interesting..."

David, there was a YouGov survey done a week ago on Politics/Economy, my hubby filled it in a week last Friday.

But when it had not appeared by Tuesday we assumed it was a privately commissioned.
Not sure about the YouGov field work for this poll, but you have to remember that they carry out their surveys online, and the majority of people respond to them very quickly and early.

[steve]

David, I take your point but most people are not interested in the minor details of political life, for example I was at a dinner Party this week and Cameron was on the news with his tax cut for jobs and three of my friends, who by the way do not like gordon brown, said they just cant take cameron and osbourne seriously and wouldnt trust them as one put it, with their kids piggy bank, and they all said that despite not warming to gordon they feel theyd have to vote for him to stop things getting worse! because they just couldnt imagine cameron and osbourne being able to deal with it. Oh and one of the voted for Howard last time they are natural labour voters! this is what is happening in the real world out there

[steve]

by the way thats, NOT natural Labour voters, one did not vote , one voted lib dem and one conservative last time

[RichardJ]

Steve you are a troll and you come across as having an IQ of 3.

[A Cllr]

PB is suggesting this poll is older. If correct this shows that when it is just on the economy Labour get votes from Lib Dem supporters. When it is more than the economy or when Cameron looks more human than Brown then those Lib Dems are coming over to us.

The battle is for Lib Dem voters.

[A Cllr]

Steve

That's all made up and you know it. It's the typical Labour troll response.

[will.b]

I think it is time for some grey beards to step up. Hague needs to say goodbye to his outside interests and spend the next eighteen months as shadow chancellor preparing for government. Clarke and Redwood should be running a new task force developing Conservative economic policy with weekly annoucements.

We need Osbourne's skill in campaign strategy as party chairman.

[ChrisD]

"by the way thats, NOT natural Labour voters, one did not vote , one voted lib dem and one conservative last time"

steve, it would help if your attempts to throw a few straws in the wind here could be backed up with facts.

The polls are indicating a different story. The Tory is not soft, and continues to hold steady at 40+.

[A Cllr]

Weekly announcements? On what exactly?

You cannot have weekly announcements from the Conservatives on the economy, what a daft idea.

[A Cllr]

I agree with Chris - where the changes are are in Lib Dem support. Tory support isn't dropping.

[steve]

My god cant imagine why the conservatives were called the nasty party! not made up! by the way I voted tory in 92 I do not have any strong feelings for any party, just found this site and decided to contribute,and was actually interested in the stories on here, but if this is how you treat someone for a comment dont think I will bother

[Henry Mayhew - Ukipper]

Brown's economics are about to be found out now that the pound has depreciated by 30%.

Polls should start looking up for the Tories in the next couple of weeks.

[ChrisD]

"We need Osbourne's skill in campaign strategy as party chairman."

Willb, this is getting boring, its not going to happen. Major, Clark, Lawson, Redwood and Fallon are all backing up Osborne's stance with regard the economy.
In fact, Fallon pointed the fact that Osborne as Shadow Chancellor is being used as a lightening rod in the party, just as the last Shadow Chancellor was during Thatcher's period as leader of the Opposition before the 1979 GE.

Also there is a concerted effort from the Labour party to destabilise Osborne with the aim of having removed. And that should tell you how valuable a politician we have in that post, as Fallon pointed out, you don't chop and change your Shadow Chancellor as we did regularly in period before Osborne's appointment.

It simple gives helps the government and makes your own party look weak and disunited. It would also undermine Cameron in the media at a time when we could be looking at a GE anywhere from the spring of 2009-2010.
It would be electoral suicide, and we would rightly pay dearly for it!

Luckily for the party, our leadership has a spine, which is more than can be said for some who appear to be lacking any cajones at all!

[BrianB]

"does anyone know if it is possible to obtain a copy of the questions in the exact format they were given"

Yes, the full survey results and questions will be on the YouGov web site. They aren't there yet (I just checked) - the latest one is a survey about Prince Charles, published on 14/11/08.

Log in to YouGov and go to its Home Page, select "Published Results", then select "Political". But give it a day or so first.

.

[ChrisD]

Apologies for missing a couple of words in my posts. I have a keyboard that is playing up and seems to be sticking for some reason.

[will.b]

ChrisD - if you think that the Cameron/Osborne economic partnership is doing well in our key midlands/northern marginals you haven't been near them.

You seem to think that Cameron is too weak to put people in the jobs they are most suitable for, I think he would gain credit from it.

Hague as shadow chancellor and Osborne as party chairman.

[Sam R]

"theyd have to vote for him (Gordon) to stop things getting worse!" - Steve, 22.04.

What a desperate situation to find oneself in.
For ChrisD, however, there is hope. Had the same problem with a key earlier today, but a tiny drop of WD40 administered on the tip of a paper clip did the trick.

[ChrisD]

"ChrisD - if you think that the Cameron/Osborne economic partnership is doing well in our key midlands/northern marginals you haven't been near them."

I live in the North East of Scotland where the Tories are in second place to a Libdem incumbent!

As to your second point, I have not got a scooby what your on about to be honest.

And as for Hague for Shadow Chancellor, forget it!

[ChrisD]

Thanks SamR.

[Another Richard]

ChrisD

Osborne is in difficulties not because of anything Labour has done but as a result of his own inadequacies. It was Osborne who has failed to nail Labour over the economy, it was Osborne who has failed to create a Conservative economic policy and it was Osborne who chose to ponce about on an Russian Oligarch's yacht.

Ever since Northern Rock it was apparant to anyone with common sense and who bothered to look into economic issues that we were heading for disaster. Osborne should have been pointing this out for the last year instead he preferred to support Labour's policies and to propose 'sharing the proceeds of growth'. THERE HASN'T BEEN ANY REAL ECONOMIC GROWTH FOR YEARS. All this country has had is ever increasing consumption fueled by ever increasing debt.

Now that things have fallen apart Osborne is stuck like a rabbit in the headlights. What precisely is the Conservative economic policy at the moment? Is there one?

Osborne looks like Cameron's weedy little brother. A man with little knowledge of the real world and who could have been created to lose the Conservatives support among working class voters.

[RichardJ]

"My god cant imagine why the conservatives were called the nasty party! not made up! by the way I voted tory in 92 I do not have any strong feelings for any party"

Impossible, foetuses can't vote.

[will.b]

ChrisD - "I live in the North East of Scotland where the Tories are in second place to a Libdem incumbent!"

Thanks Chris I understand the bunker mentality now. Please come and spend some time in our northern/midlands marginals and you might get a better idea of how we could make some simple changes in personnel/policy and we wouldn't be slipping so badly.

[CJ]

NorthernMonkey : Say that again when a Gen. Election is called when down will come Gay Gordon cradle and all...

[Chris]

How the Tories have any sort of lead is amazing. There complete inept and lack of ideas to do with the economy, you can see why ERM happpened now with Cameron!

[FrogSporn]

The cretin's, you would want as chancellor, response, in the Times today - talking down the economy with relish and potentially causing a run on the pound is all the proof any sane voter would need on what the Cons are all about.

What solution did he offer again? Laughable!

[Another Richard]

' "ChrisD - if you think that the Cameron/Osborne economic partnership is doing well in our key midlands/northern marginals you haven't been near them."

I live in the North East of Scotland where the Tories are in second place to a Libdem incumbent! '

I take it you live in Aberdeenshire West ChrisD. Not a constituency that has much in common with Lab/Con marginals in Yorkshire, Lancashire and the Midlands.

[steve]

RichardJ, just a couple of points first 92 was the first election I could vote in I was 18!.

Second you really should realise most people, including me are not fanatics for any party. They vote on the issues of the time looking at the leaders and who they think can deal with them.

Now beleive what you want but I an alot of people I know are open to being won over by any party, and I really do not think you do your cause any good by insults and shouting down other peoples views. I suspect you would vote the way you do whatever, but we are all not like that and care about the issues and do not treat voting as a way for ^my team to win^ this is not a contest just for the prize of being the winner, it is a decision that will affect us for decades ahead and that includes my children.

And I really think you devalue the importance of it by insulting, rude , ignorant comments.

[ChrisD]

"Thanks Chris I understand the bunker mentality now. Please come and spend some time in our northern/midlands marginals and you might get a better idea of how we could make some simple changes in personnel/policy and we wouldn't be slipping so badly."

Oh dear....that one made me laugh.

[ChrisD]

"The cretin's, you would want as chancellor, response, in the Times today - talking down the economy with relish and potentially causing a run on the pound is all the proof any sane voter would need on what the Cons are all about."

Luckily most of the posters here are a little bit more economically literate than you are!

The only cretin who has caused a run on the pound is Gordon Brown with his briefing over the last few weeks. Its not a coincidence, that while he has been running around the world over the last couple of months, Sterling has been in free fall as Foreign investors fled for safer currencies. All Osborne did was raise the alarm.

And all that poor Chancellor Darling can do is run along behind Brown in the press trying to hose down expectations of big tax cuts and increased spending on the back of further borrowing. Why? Because he knows the effect its having on Sterling.

So while Brown sits on top of his mountain of debt throwing down demands and promising more debt. Darling is running around behind him telling everyone that he will prevent this wild spending and promising that any give a ways are short term and will be followed by tax increases.

Now that is cynical politiking!

[Votedave]

Frankly, I think some of the above contributors should sod off back to LabourHome to make their smug comments. Even with the media scandalously lionising Gordon Brown at every given opportunity they still haven't managed to get back in the lead.

We've been in worse spots than this - 1978 leaps to mind. We'll show 'em.