One-third of Tory members expect election within six months

Earlier we published the first results of yesterday's afternoon's special survey of Tory members and found overwhelming support for the leadership's stance on tax, spend and debt. We also asked about the timing of the next election:

13% expect an election early in the new year; a fifth think it will coincide with the European elections.  Most members still expect Brown will wait until the very last minute, however.  I've always thought that too but as Iain Dale noted earlier this week, unemployment could be three million by then.  Three million or not, the economic situation is going to be grim, grim, grim.  The 'time for change' message will get stronger and the second Brown bounce will dissipate.

Ladbrokes still have 2010 as the most likely year for the election but next year is now at 13/8.

Tim Montgomerie

Comments

[Teck]

Ladbrokes's a loser on this one.

Bets all around me at work and at home are on for a 2009 GE.

All hands on deck!

[Tim Montgomerie]

This from Fraser Nelson in tomorrow's Spectator:

"With each of the Prime Minister’s gravity-defying successes, the likelihood of a January election grows stronger. It would be an extraordinary time for an election, yet that very singularity would play to Mr Brown’s favoured theme: namely, that there is a national economic emergency. Even in the depths of winter, he could easily argue that he needed a new and explicit five-year mandate to implement his rescue plan. And most of all, it would get the electorate into the polling booths before the really bad news breaks.

Three economic tsunamis are speeding their way towards our shores. The first is unemployment. The seasonal bump in hiring unwinds in the new year, and employers will start layoffs they don’t have the heart to announce before Christmas. Next the quarterly heating bills, up 50 per cent on last year, will land on doorsteps. And perhaps most ominously, a secondary banking crisis may be brewing as nationalised British banks are still unable to raise private money. Serious economists are talking about London being ‘Reykjavik on Thames’. This would destroy Mr Brown’s claim to have solved the banking crisis."

[David_at_Home]

Tim,

I am interested in the mechanics of your poll.

You did not send me an e-mail inviting me to vote and quite right too since I am openly and honestly a member of UKIP. (By the way, I think the fact that you allow avowed members of other parties to use your excellent website is very much to your credit).

But how do you know who is and who is not a member of the Conservative Party? And, given that the Conservative Party activists/members/voters who use Conservative Home are a self selecting group, how representative do you think they are of Tory Party activists/members/voters as a whole?

[Tim Montgomerie]

This -

http://conservativehome.blogs.com/torydiary/2006/05/can_you_trust_c.html

- may be useful David.

[David_at_Home]

"Three economic tsunamis are speeding their way towards our shores."

Ooo Er!!!!!

This seems about right to me since we, as a nation, have been living well above our income for the past 7 years or so and now it's payback time.

What does Andrew Lilico have to say, I wonder?

If I were the leader of a UK political party, I would be hoping that I did NOT win the coming GE.

[Old Hack]

I'd go for a May election. If Labour does okay or pulls a '92 and wins then the Euro and County elections look good for June.

It's by no means certain however. The Mori poll was a bit wild. If ICM and You Gov confirm the gap closed this then this may be as good as it gets for Brown.

My money would still be on Cameron in the General however - he's going to be a far better 'candidate' for PM.

All those lefties thinking its game on - remember the McCain/Palin surge after the GOP convention. That's right, and McCain's got far more charisma than GB.

Labour's got to ask itself. Does it really believe it can pull in a better vote share than 2005? If it cannot, it loses.

[James]

If there is an election within the next six months. Then I am afraid it will be another five years of Brown. And anyone who thinks differently is deluded.

[Ian Bennett]

My fear is this.

The majority of the electorate look no further than their pockets and purse.

Brown will gladly talk up world recession all day,we are on the back foot and being perceived as out of line-sadly that is a position Osborne and Cameron have put us totally unnecessarily in to.

The nightmare scenario - September 2009 - interest rates at 2% or lower,inflation at 1% or lower,unemployment massaged under 3 million,average SVR mortgage rate of 45,the "nationalised" banks encouraged to re-open underwriting criteria allowing easier access to credit again,the other banks following like lemmings - petrol around 85p a litre,the tax hand-outs still valid and still benefitting people - the big lie that Tory spending cuts - their words NOT mine will close schools,hospitals,regiments,Courts etc etc - Brown will have had 6 months in charge of G20 - Obhama,Sarkozy,Merkel even Putin telling us how bold and visionary he is!

TRY selling DC/GO on the doorstep on the back of such propoganda with the likely opinion poll defecit we could be in?

ITS NIGHTMARE TERRITORY!

[David_at_Home]

Tim,

Very interesting. Thanks!

[James]

Where did my message go with regards people being deluded if we thought we could win the next election?

[James]

Sorry.SHould have gone to specsavers

[Votedave]

Gordon Brown will only call a general election before May 2010 if most or all the polls are pointing to an overall majority for Labour.
I remain confident that the Bounce Brown is currently enjoying will not last, just as the one in summer 2007 did not. It reminds me of the SDP Golden Age of 1981-2, followed by a silver age 1985-6. It is also worth remembering, as I've pointed out numerous times before, that Margaret Thatcher struggled to keep her head above water in the polls when she was Leader of the Opposition - then we she went on to become Prime Minister.
James should not be so dismissive of Conservative prospects next time.

[Peter Harrison]

James - we are still ahead in all the polls. Most of them still have us ahead by an election winning margin. The polls tend to swing towards the Conservatives in an election - the received wisdom that they swing to the government is wrong. And our poll rating goes up the more Cameron is seen in the media - the media would have to show a lot more of him in an election campaign.

It is not certain that we will win an election if one is called in the next six months but it is by no means definite that we will lose. The bookmakers still have us as favourites to win the next election. So it is certainly NOT deluded to think we will win the next election.

[resident leftie]

You'll win. So, the longer Brown waits, the better.

[Norm Brainer]

I think the brown bounce will end abruptly, but I think before it does labour will be ahead in the polls.
He seems to get more deluded by the day that he is superman and everything he says is "the right thing to do" so I think he will want to win a vote, and believe he can sometime next year.
The same as people saying it was a gamble to cancel the election that never was as there was trouble ahead, I think the same is going to be true by the end of next year.

But maybe I'm underestimating his stupidity to think he won't make the same mistake twice, or over estimating the british public to think he's not a chance of winning even if polls are looking good for him when he calls it.

[Votedave]

If we take the recent US Presidential election as an example, it was only in the final weeks of the campaign that Barack Obama was consistently and clearly ahead.

While this is not a personal endorsement of Obama, it proves Peter Harrison's point that the polls can move in the Opposition's direction during an election campaign.
We Conservatives have a tradition of gaining power against the odds. Churchill won in 1951 despite falling short in the popular vote. No-one expected Ted Heath to oust Harold Wilson in 1970. Margaret Thatcher looked doomed in October 1978, but was PM by the year after.

[rugfish]

Unless you're inside Gordon Brown's head you have no way of knowing when he'll call an election and probably less chance of knowing if you are anything remotely as barmy as that bloke who would likely have to have a committee look into it before he decided it was really his decision.

HOWEVER !
I personally WISH for an early election as I want the country back on its feet sooner rather than never with this twonk of a government.

I also want MY Party to keep its promise on Europe and throw that damn Lisbon Treaty in the nearest refuse truck passing parliament when they enter our governmemnt again and I don't want no mealy mouth excuses for that either !!

My fingers are crossed and I'm down on bended knee with my eyes tightly shut and praying that the buffoon in the hot seat has water thrown over his plans to ruin my country any further.

Come on David, if they can do "poli-tricks", then surely you can engineer a vote of no confidence in the opposite side, as there isn't any ?

[duncann]

Previously I thought the Tories couldn't lose but now I think they'll struggle to win. Brown is adept at short term political and fiscal manipulation, poor at leadership. He'll go for 2009 on the basis that he'll not win the popular vote but can win the seats, If he's a few short Nick Clegg will be there to lick his boots for him. The final calculation will be made on what's happening in Scotland - Brown seems to have the upper hand now over Salmond. By skewering the Scottish banks so there can never be an independent Scotland, he has finally put Labour back on top there and that's where he can bank on a lot of seats.

[Sam Chapman]

It's all down to whether Crash Gordon believes his own hype. I suspect he is deluded enough to think he can fix this - that he really thinks he was the best Chancellor ever, and that he can deliver a short recession and the beginnings of a recovery by 2010, when he will have his election.

But if he is back in the real world with the rest of us, and if next Monday, the trailed tax cuts and tax credits hikes are to impact this year, then consider this - a full year of tax cut/credit change will be compressed into 3 months, not 12 - and so the effect on what arrives in your bank account will be that it is 4 times its normal monthly value. If enough of the population prefer the short-term extra cash to the long-term pain of paying it back with interest, they may also be deceived as to the size of the benefit until April's pay packet.

So, if he is more slightly more sane than I give him credit for, I'd be thinking late February/early March 2009, before the Council Tax bills arrive.

[meli]

I have to agree with rugfish here. There are other things to worry about besides the economy as we all know it's in trouble and there is NO easy fix out of it. If a campaign is run on that alone, well I don't know what hope there is. Many flocked to the Conservatives after Labour refused to keep their promise of a referendum on the Lisbon Treaty. David Davis (love him or hate him!) also knows that people are very worried about the big brother state Labour are pushing us ever closer to. There are ways to reach this country, and then there is the just squeeking by method. Some things should have no price tag and thus there are other worries besides just our pocket books.

[Louise]

Meli - the problem is David Davis is no longer in the Shadow Cabinet and able to speak up for civil liberties. He hoisted himself on his own petard and is unlikely to be much of a feature at the election. His interviews last to me suggested he is lying in wait for defeat, rather than trying to bolster us up.

Also I have never participated in an election where civil liberties were high on the agenda. I suspect many of our core vote agreed in principle with 42-day detention and ID cards. I'm not sure those are definite vote-winners. If anything the British public tend to go for people who are stronger on law-and-order issues. It's a shame but it's probably true.

My concern is that the polls seem to be moving counter-intuitively now at the onset of recession and wonder just how much more they will move in Gordon's favour as the recession gets deeper. Our decision yesterday to scrap the Labour spending plans agreement was good, but only the start of what we need to do to regain the initiative. Since Cameron has finally done something risky and bold - though not personally what I would have done myself without more specific proposals - I'm going to give him the benefit of the doubt for the moment.

However, I'm just not sure we have control of the agenda to move the polls in our favour during the election campaign. I've always suspected that the polls would move closer together once people had to make up their minds, and that in the absence of a robust, coherent, demotic message the Conservatives would end up losing. In a recession, I think "time for a change" might be trumped by "better the devil you know". The polls are hardening inside the zone needed for Labour to win, and you can bet your bottom dollar they will have a strong policy platform, even if it is more of the same. We need to match or exceed that to stay in the game. Yesterday went some way to doing that but I still feel that out there for people not doggedly committed to the party it is too little, too late.

I hope I'm wrong but a snap election before our next conference would leave us without any possibility of using that conference to establish just what the Conservatives plan is, leaving us with being Not-Labour. We need much much much more than this before we can reverse the current trend, and we are running out of time to do so. If we leave it till next autumn to put out some broad political platform or narrative, even if there aren't definite specific policies until the last moment, we will be overcome by Labour's clunking fist, yet again.

Sorry but as someone who has been in both parties, is more of a natural Tory and who dislikes Labour with a vengeance, I still don't see yet how we can actually win without appearing to be doing anything to try to win. I know a lot of work is going on in CCHQ, but we need now to see a lot of it.

You've already lost both my parents back to Labour I'm afraid. You're going to have to try hard to convince them, I don't feel that I am able to do so at the moment.

[geoff]

meli..

Cassius has an interesting suggestion on how to combine tax cutting and the removal of the big brother state to put UK Plc back in the league of desirable places to live.

http://cassiuswrites.blogspot.com/2008/11/modest-proposal.html

It's original, and I think it merits discussion.

[The Bishop Swine]

"If there is an election within the next six months. Then I am afraid it will be another five years of Brown. And anyone who thinks differently is deluded."

We are in a fight but we should continue to tell the truth and hope that the public is more intelligent than they are painted.4 more years of Brown is unthinkable. We must tell the truth without spin, Labour has rubbished our whole system and has already gone way to far. Brown has the treasury by the balls. Do we hear any voices from the great and good outside of the Conservatives telling it like it is? We could do with one of the Papers backing our victory (by which I mean one that rises in the morning, and has big tits) Britian needs a victory for change. Of course I am concerned by the seeming resurgence of Labour, we need an end to its goals and aims its creepy underbelly of intrusion.

DC needs a shot in the arm as he is trying his best to encourage this nation away from disaster.Brown’s beneficiaries are being forced to milk the rest of us dry.
The Tax credit boon redistribution of billions has forced up tax’s to unbearable levels. He has drawn countless thousands into duel dependency and trapped them there for ever. We have allowed a system of faulty qualifications condemn thousands to unfulfilled existences. Collectively we have allowed a rod to be shaped and crafted for our own backs. We need to rebrand ourselves as the British party of first choice. I like the green symbol BTW that was a great move.
We need to rediscover our heritage our royalty and our natural nobility.
Prince Charles is now expectable lets show him the due respect. Labour have watered done the influence of our royal family. We need to show ourselves to be willing to cherish our traditions. We will strike , not as labour would by sitting idle and wasting time, but by millions of action’s. We will plant the seeds of labours undoing in the minds of all those we pass the time of day with. Be Warned Labour we are made of sterner stuff than you.

[Roberts]

"One third of Tory members expect early election" .BUT the rest don't - 58% expecting the PM to wait until very last moment ! Half truths undermine your message !!

[meli]

geoff thanks for the link. I agree! It should in fact be apart of our so called Bill of Rights they want to create. I would go farther and say our DNA belongs to us unless we have forfeited that right by commiting a crime.

Louise I agree with you completely. I too am an ex Labour member by the way. I am not currently a member of the conservatives but I am thinking I will join. David Davis is really not needed in the arguement. I guess I should have made it clear that it was his message more then him that I felt was important. Some other members have written things about this, and I know William Hague has written a few things about ever creeping EU laws etc. Sadly I don't think such things get near enough play time. For the economy, while I am not against George, I think they should just bring in the big guns and bring in Ken Clark. Sure he loves Europe but he is very qualified for the possition.
I guess I am trying very hard to look at not only attracting the vote of the Conservative members, but members from other parties too. What the Conservatives lack at the moment, is a passion for anything really. Where is Baroness Warsi and her passionate speech from the conference for instance? Things that touch at the heart of this country. There ARE messages other then Labour have broken our finances. That is all ready known as is the fact that it's going to be a long and painful process to fix it. I voted in the poll on this site to freeze public spending. I would go farther and say get rid of all the rediculous and costly stuff that Labour have implemented. We could save a bundle.

[meli]

(sorry I hit post before I was done!)
I guess in closing what I am trying to say is that if this election were fought on JUST the economy, we might be in trouble or squeek by with a very narrow margain. Who really can make any promises on the economy? No party can do so. Only promises to try to fix what's broken and pinch and save where we can. Just as every household in this country is doing. There are other things that could be promised and implemented though such concerning the environment, GM crops, and the above things I and others noted. I really don't know where the conservatives stand on anything anymore though I can point to an individual member here or there who stands for this or that. There is little or no obvious conensus except labour sucks.

[Andrew James]

If there is to be an election within the next 12 months or so, which I doubt, we should not already be giving up trying to win it!

Yes, we've squandered the large leads over the summer and Labour appear to be gaining significant ground, but it is worth bearing in mind that the recession has not hit home with the electorate just yet. The PM is still basking in the supposed glory of being master of the financial bailout universe. There is a strong possibility that Brown will suffer once unemployment mounts up and the economy contracts more.

It's also worth bearing in mind that the bank bailout is not having its desired affect - the government may have to implement some sort of ultra-socialist lending approval mechanism if the situation doesn't improve. That could prove politically disastrous.

On the other side of the argument, however, is the 1992 election. Labour enjoyed considerable poll leads during the 87-92 parliament, but mostly because Labour was not trusted with the economy (and appeared triumphalist and complacent), they lost the election during a Tory recession.

If we are not bold, and choose not to formulate straightforward policies which the electorate understand and whose benefits are appreciable, we will lose. At the moment, it appears as if we are unwilling to help people through the recession because there is 'no money left' with which to do so. This is nonsense. There's plenty of money to be saved. The electorate understands that Labour has squandered millions of hard-earned taxpayers' money, so now is the time to put that right.

During a downturn such as this one, sacrifices have to be made. If that sacrifice is public spending, so be it. We must not allow the absurd statist consensus of the bloated public sector to prevail over the coming years.

[David Cooper]

Andrew James: "During a downturn such as this one, sacrifices have to be made. If that sacrifice is public spending, so be it. We must not allow the absurd statist consensus of the bloated public sector to prevail over the coming years." Precisely. To put it another way, it is surely preferable to assert here and now that the patient who has overindulged on debt and instant gratification for 11 years is in serious immediate need of a long stretch in rehab, rather than to duck out with comforting words alone and find that in five years' time the only cure is a liver transplant with a mere 50-50 chance of survival.

[Andrew S]

I think it's very encouraging that the Conservative share of the vote has not slipped below 40%. I feel that is the most important factor for Labour to consider.

If Brown has not even managed to overtake the Tories with his bounce, then that's quite poor. I don't think their ratings will get much higher at all. But I suppose we'll have to wait until Monday to see how "potent" these tax cuts are. Like previous budgets they could possibly be a damp squib, but if an election is in the pipeline, he'll want something impressive.

What a wally!