ICM: Tories 11% ahead

An ICM poll for The Sunday Mirror has the Conservatives on 42% (-1%), Labour 31% (+1%), LibDems 19% (+1).  Changes compared with 8th November.

Graphic after X factor.

9.15pm:

Comments

[Pat]

I don't know what worries me more, that the Lib Dems are 1%(!) up or that Ed. watches The X Factor.

[Andrew Woodman]

Looks OK. The Mori poll looks to have been flawed with such a low Lib Dem score. The constant 40%+ share is encouraging. Now time to nail the PBR.

[Raj]

I'm not surprised given ICM have (to quote Mike Smithson) sounder methodology than MORI. Shows that the leadership still deserves support.

Now can we expect some humble pie from the usual suspects who jumped on the MORI poll as a sign that Osbourne had to go, or will they be on "holiday" until this has dropped off the front page? Or will they even try to claim that MORI is somehow more reliable than ICM?

[ChrisD]

"I don't know what worries me more, that the Lib Dems are 1%(!) up or that Ed. watches The X Factor."

Good poll, and I suspect there might be a female influence.(I would use fun smilies if I could!)

[Rose Quy]

Tories on a constant now above 40% and others around 10%. The big moves seem to come from the Left who cannot make up their mind if it's Labour or Lib/Deb. As someone else has said on another blog, that means in reality the 'socialist swingers' might not vote at all in a real GE.

[Another Richard]

So no need for panic but no room for complacency either.

There seems to be a concrete floor of 40% for the Conservatives. What is required now is hard work and commitment by the leadership to push to 45% and above. There must be no more of the complacency and incompetance that some were guilty of during the summer and autumn.

The only hope for Labour is to have an early election - if they wait to 2010 they will be destroyed. Brown is a coward who will take any excuse not to risk an early election, the Conservative party needs to give him one.

[Josh]

In the past week there have been polls showing; 13 points ahead, 11 points ahead, 5 points ahead and 3 points ahead. I am guessing that a true reflection is somewhere between 5 and 8 points.

[Malcolm Dunn]

Great news! However my joy is also tempered by the fact that our esteeemed Editor watches the X factor!How sad.

[Real Tory for UKIP etc]

Oh by the way I forgot to mention that if we weren't blue Labour, communist Conservatives with terrible leaders etc we would be more than 100% ahead of this terrible government etc etc. This poll is a DISASTER etc,etc,etc!!!!

[Hail Dave!]

This poll shows David to be a true colossus and George is an economic genius. Forward to the thousand year rule of the Roons.

All those who say that we are now looking at the third poll in a week to show a continuing move towards Labour are defeatist and treacherous elements who must face ten (more) years of re-education through labour.

[pp]

So according to tory detractors here abouts this means that the cameron/osborne strategy over the past week has given us an 8% swing... nice.

Alternatively last poll was an abberation (as most of us thought) - and tories have a good lead with a few fluctuations along the way.

First poll after the pre-budget report will be interesting.

[m dowding]

For me this is an indication that Brown and his weirdo consorts are not making the inroads they expected. There can be little doubt that most BBC and Sky/Murdoch outpourings, in support of Labour, are a dangerous disgrace to democracy. That The Conservative Party can remain so solidly at or above 40% with the barrage of spin, propaganda and mendacious fire storm of unpleasant, manipulated and ignorant production, is amazing. Not only that, it is a tribute to a leadership that has to withstand such bias and dirty tricks of quite nasty origin. Mandleson and Campbell's attacks, through nefarious outlets, on GO have been relentless and an obvious piece of tactical spin. It is failing and we are stronger for it. 2009 Election? YES PLEASE!

[Clive]

I must say I'm rather pleasantly surprised!

I was expecting further swings back to Labour.

Lets see what happens after Monday's PBR.

[RichardJ]

Good news of course although I'll feel more comfortable when we're in the mid-40s. We mustn't be complacent for a second, we need to keep hammering Labour and keep explaining what we would do differently.

We need to turn our guns on Brown's VAT plan for a start. What makes him think that prices won't stay the same and retailers will just keep the money that was originally going to pay VAT?

[Dave]

Fluctuating polls seem to suggest that the dust is yet to settle. I can't help but notice how much the people on this site read what ever suits their prejudice when each poll comes out. Can we assume that the majority of polls are just snapshots and that everything is still very volatile?

[Helen]

Why are we not still 20+ points ahead? We can breathe out but we are not anywhere near where we should be. I think Dave is correct and that things remain fluid. Earlier this week I was in a local shop and mentioned the credit crunch to the owner he replied that it was all a media invention and that people were still spending. He went on to say that if a load of bankers lost their jobs in the South no one would give a stuff about those w****rs anyway. I was not expecting this from a small business and wonder how typical this is outside of the Tory heartlands

[Sam R]

This is good news, but, in a way, to be expected.
We have had Gordon "Arfur Daily" Brown and his side-kick trying to use more credit to sell the British people a dud vehicle that hasn't passed an MOT in ten years. Now today we have had the two beauties, Hazel and Harriet, indulging in distraction tactics. Looks like the NuLab sales pitch isn't fooling many anymore. Nor can I see His Nobleless doing much by way of fooling the unsuspecting.

[mark]

Com Res - Indi on Sunday tomorrow

Con 43
Lab 32

Dead Cat Bounce!

[Bill]

Sadly most people have no understanding of economics or politics hence Obama and Brown. Democracy gives power to those who don't deserve it. I can't help thinking that we need to go back to 1832 and rethink the property qualification i.e. only those with a stake in society should be given the vote. That way moronic Labour scum would be denied the right to inflict the Scottish Mafia on us true patriots.

[Owen]

Dead cat bounce indeed but where will the Tories be after two years in power 3+ million unemployed and no answers. You may just find that the next election is a poisened chalice for whoever emerges victorous.

[Raj]

Why are we not still 20+ points ahead?

Probably because the polls don't jump by 8 points in a single survey unless months elapse between. They shift gradually.

We can breathe out but we are not anywhere near where we should be.

Lots of things in the world "should" be X, but they're Y because that's the way things turn out. Similarly if 31% of the electorate dearly, truly want to vote Labour there's nothing anyone can do about it over the course of a single week.

[Ivor Loan]

The Tories will build Jerusalem in Englands green and pleasant land, after they have reviewed the green belt thingy and Dave has traded in his bike for a Land Rover. Seriously whilst I long for an end to Labour's rule I have such low expectations of Cameroon that part of me hopes he does not win and the poisoned chalice Owen refers too is handed to Brown. Consequently Cameroon grows a pair and we win big in 2012 /13.

[Graeme Archer]

I'm not surprised by this at all. The X Factor is an institution so why would the Editor be immune. Oh. The opinion poll? I dunno. I expect it shows that Dave is winning/Tories are finished/Brown's washed up/it's Labour's to lose [delete according to prior belief].

[Raj]

I can't help thinking that we need to go back to 1832 and rethink the property qualification i.e. only those with a stake in society should be given the vote.

Bill, you are either angry and will regret your comment in the morning or are no real Conservative (possibly a Labour troll). There are a vast number of brain-dead, naive fools who own property, or perhaps I should go further and say are rich, in this country.

Your arguments are just like those I hear in China from the wealthy who say the peasants are too "stupid" for democracy. As it is there are people living simple lives in the countryside who are far wiser than many of their countrymen/women wearing designer suits and have penthouses in Shanghai. They see what damage government policy does to the land whilst those with money are isolated from others' problems.

In any case, even if those with "property" really were capable of always choosing the right people to lead this country, it's the working classes who always get packed off to fight in this country's wars. If the middle/upper classes want exclusive/majority control over politics they can start by pushing their children to join the infantry, rather than watch on TV stories about poorer families losing their loved ones in some conflict, cluck their tongues and go back to their glass of wine.

[RichardJ]

"He went on to say that if a load of bankers lost their jobs in the South no one would give a stuff about those w****rs anyway."

What a vile little man, I personally would never purchase anything from him again.

[christina Speight]

Let's be straight about the Polls generally. You can't talk about a swing when comparing one pollster's results with another pollster's. Secondly whoever said above that to go from a 3% to an 11% lead is an 8% swing needs to halve that figure,

Then Ipsos-Mori is not in the general run of pollsters at the moment and no newspaper buys them while they continue to sample and test revised methodology. The two I watch are YouGov and ICM showing currently a 9% and an 11% lead. . The gap there is within the normal sampling margin of error.

So it will not settle gfor months in my view and polls taken after the end of next wseek will be most interesting

[RichardJ]

"Bill, you are either angry and will regret your comment in the morning or are no real Conservative (possibly a Labour troll)."

Actually there's a very logical argument for a property or wealth qualification for voting. Putting it simply, by ensuring only property owners can vote you ensure that those with less money can't vote to steal from the wealthy. It is no coincidence that increasing democracy went hand in hand with the rise of the welfare state and the decline in liberty. It's not a popular argument to make because it will inevitably offend people, that doesn't stop it being true though.

[Gloy Plopwell (Hornsey and Wood Green)]

Fabulous suspendours news. Lib Dems up 1%. Well done!!!!

[Another Richard]

"Earlier this week I was in a local shop and mentioned the credit crunch to the owner he replied that it was all a media invention and that people were still spending. He went on to say that if a load of bankers lost their jobs in the South no one would give a stuff about those w****rs anyway. I was not expecting this from a small business and wonder how typical this is outside of the Tory heartlands"

Where was the shop Helen? I can tell you that Yorkshire is suffering as much as anywhere with local job losses dominating the news day after day. Not that the government care, only London and Scotland matter to Labour.

As to job losses in the City, 99% of people in Yorkshire would say good riddance to those parasites and it's time to concentrate on the real economy.

[Raj]

RichardJ

Actually there's a very logical argument for a property or wealth qualification for voting. Putting it simply, by ensuring only property owners can vote you ensure that those with less money can't vote to steal from the wealthy.

And there's a very logical argument that if only property owners can vote then they can dominate those who do not have property, such that we would return to a situation prior to the 20th century where in many cases the poor were treated like animals by the wealthy, the latter not caring for the former and seeing them as little better than livestock.

Be careful what you say because you're bordering on advocating a return to slavery.

[Londoner]

On the tiff between Raj and RichardJ, I have some sympathy with RichardJ even though I would not go as far back as 1832. Much of the electorate is not so much stupid, but uneducated in politics and also doesn't feel it has much of a duty to pay much attention before exercising its vote.

However, I increasingly feel that the stupid and ignorant tend to cancel each other out: we have our stupids and our opponents have theirs. This can leave the way open to the more informed and intelligent to actually make the decisions, particularly to change Governments. In retrospect, although I have voted Conservative in every General Election since I had the vote (from 1974) it's difficult not to feel that every Government which has lost power in the last 60 years has deserved to do so, and whilst a few have hung on which deserved to lose, those have been more marginal calls (Major in 92 and Blair in 05 both being examples, but both benefiting from a flawed Opposition case). Where the stupidity of the universal franchisee does more harm is to the role of Parliament, which undoubtedly worked better, and with more independence from the electorate, before the age of mass democracy.

[Old Hack]

Well I thought the Mori poll a dud, though it contributed to the resurgent Labour narrative which was damaging enough in the context that every week Labour remains in power now is both costly and destructive.

It should not be overlooked that properly played, this financial crisis should have spelt the end of the Brown government. We should be over 50%, the Ilib Dems around 10% and Labour bobbing around in the 20s.

This has not just been a perfect economic storm, but the mother of all political storms as well. Think on this: Everything Brown has stood for since he became Chancellor in 97 has been undone. He is utterly discredited. Yet, there has been no coup de grace delivered either by his own side or the opposition. Meanwhile charlatans like Cable come up with stupid ideas like nationalisation of N Rock that are costing the public services billions.

It's too late to move (not sack) George Osborne. But I do hope that it's finally sunk in that we are in extremely volatile times and that he needs all the help he can get to raise his game. Monday will be telling. If the Tories can discredit this scheme of Darlings we could see some progress.

As for 41%, well at a time like this that's flatlining.

[A Cllr]

Where are the trolls?

[GB£.com]

Labour would be mad to call a GE before the Lisbon Treaty is ratified, as Cameroon EU policy has been ignored even more than economic policy and has the potential to be fatally toxic for Cameron.

There is clearly an uneasy truce right now as many wait for EPP withdrawal and a coherent post-LT policy.

By the end of 2009, if the Tories are still in the EPP, and policy is still no more than "we won't leave it there", internal civil war is a real possibility.

All it will take is for Cameron to ensure his MEP's leave the EPP straight after the Euros, and to detail exactly what he means, in firm policy terms, about returning powers, but I just can't see it happening, so any splits will be of his own making.

I just hope that Cameron sorts this out before the euro elections.

[RichardJ]

"And there's a very logical argument that if only property owners can vote then they can dominate those who do not have property, such that we would return to a situation prior to the 20th century where in many cases the poor were treated like animals by the wealthy, the latter not caring for the former and seeing them as little better than livestock."

The bad treatment of the poor by some people was less to do with lack of suffrage than with social attitudes and economic underdevelopment at the time. It is notable that the vast majority of the Victorian middle class gave a significant proportion of their income to charity, far more than today in a supposedly more compassionate era. You seem to have fallen for the left-wing myth that life for the poor was Hell in the 19th century. It may well have been during the birth pains of the industrial revolution but by 1900 there was a very extensive privately funded welfare "system" in place. I suggest a read of James Bartholomew's Welfare State We're In.

"Be careful what you say because you're bordering on advocating a return to slavery."

Yes, I can well imagine that if the vote was limited then in the 21st century we would drag the poor from their homes, put them to work on plantations and ban them from ever leaving their job.

[RichardJ]

Back to the thread topic, I see the media aren't reporting much on this poll. Surprise surprise.

[Western Star]

"By the end of 2009, if the Tories are still in the EPP, and policy is still no more than "we won't leave it there", internal civil war is a real possibility."

Wishful thinking on UKIP's part I think!

[Shaun Bennett]

Well I'm very pleased that the real Tory lead is now clear, perhaps BBC journalists will now stop talking up the so called "Brown Bounce".

I was never particularly worried about the MORI poll showing the lead down to 3% anyway. It was a MORI poll, and as such is extremely unlikely to actually be accurate! I stopped listening to MORI over 10 years ago when they consistently had Labour approaching 60%. Why on earth does ANYONE takle MORI seriously anymore?

If the 3% lead had been reflected in other organisations polls then I would have been more worried, but I was saying to one of our activists only the other day that I thought our real lead was between 8 and 10%. ICM-a respectable organisation-are now relecting that prediction.

P.S. the 20% leads of a few months ago were rubbish as well!

[Raj]

You seem to have fallen for the left-wing myth that life for the poor was Hell in the 19th century.

Not at all, but charity was insufficient to provide for all their needs. Without the vote it was impossible to advocate for better working rights and support.

Yes, I can well imagine that if the vote was limited then in the 21st century...

You can be a slave without having to live on a plantation.

[Raj]

I tell you what, RichardJ, I'll see your property qualification and raise you 5 years' service in the front-line military (as opposed to the reserves) to have the vote and be able to stand for election.

[pp]

RE: Property qualification for voting.

I think there are two issues that have been mixed up in modern government - democratic government/representation and social taxation.

We need government to ensure security and justice - and everyone who benefits from this, and is subject to this needs an input.

However taxation for social purposes is an entirely different issue - in which there is no obvious reason to give universal representation. You could ditch all social taxation/spending, empower the charity sector and let people choose for themselves who they want to support.

[Rachel Joyce]

I can't bring myself to watch the X factor regularly but I do watch Eastenders. I used to enjoy it when I was younger but now I watch it to keep in touch with popular culture and the way the media influences society. I think it is important for politicians to keep in touch with the likes of this.

[Raj]

You could ditch all social taxation/spending, empower the charity sector and let people choose for themselves who they want to support.

A nice idea, but unworkable in practice. Ensuring that everyone who needed help got it would be impossible if people could choose who received it.

[Mapa]

The big moves seem to come from the Left who cannot make up their mind if it's Labour or Lib/Deb.

aka tactical voting will take place which would assist anyone but NU_Con candidate expecially

[David Parker]

Only if, once a GE is called, the polls show that the likely results are too close to call, will Cameron, just possibly, play the EU card and commit himself to an IN/OUT referendum, but by that time it may be too late and leave us with a hung Parliament.

Unfortunately, Cameron's sole ambition is to be elected at any cost, rather than to be elected upon a clear cut set of policies and principles, even though some of these may be unpopular with a minority of the electorate.

Few would doubt that Cameron is a skilful political operator and his present tactics may prove right in the long run. But the worst possible scenario would be a Conservative 'victory' with an unworkable majority.

[pp]

Raj @ 12:40

You'll need to explain why you think it would be worse than the current system - just saying something doesn't make it so!

If a minority are coercing the majority to pay for things that they don't support then that is just plain wrong. If they would support these things without coersion then coercing them is even more wrong...

[RichardJ]

"I tell you what, RichardJ, I'll see your property qualification and raise you 5 years' service in the front-line military (as opposed to the reserves) to have the vote and be able to stand for election"

Fine by me.

[Resident Leftie]

Thank you for reminding me what the Labour movement is for, and what it has fought against for over 100 years.

[The Bishop SWine]

11% is still hung parliment Territory. By the time you take account of the real swing to Labour this is not the most encorageing poll result...hay ho its just a snap shot.

[The Bishop SWine]

Thank you for reminding me what the Labour movement is for, and what it has fought against for over 100 years.

Socalism and stagnation, the creeping state of comrade big brother. 100 wasted years they should be raiseing the working class up not trapping it in bondage to the state.
At least the anarchists don't fall into the trap of being told exactly what to think and do.

[Joe James B]

I doubt 11% is hung Parliament,
a 7% lead would probably see some unwind of the electoral system back towards the Conservatives, as there is usually some winner's bonus, and a small majority of 25-35 on a 7% gap would still be an anti Tory distortion similar to 1992.

[pp]

Leftie - I assume your comment was aimed at mine (or similar).

Democracy is not about allowing others to spend your money for you, it is about political representation.

As it happens, marxism is irrelevant to anyone who has any choice over their spending - anyone not living hand to mouth on subsistance levels of income has no call on his theories - such nonsense is only still heard because of the number of people who make a living from pretending that it still matters.

'Owning the means of production' is trivial - just write a good business plan and watch the money come rolling in (from the greedy and the generous) - labour have worked hard to block this route of social mobility, but in the UK the human spirit is still to strong to give in to them.

The 'left' in the developed world aren't those deprived of ownership of the means of production, it is those who are too lazy to earn them.

[Don Hoyle]

A number of comments refer to the 'disastrous' possibility of a hung, or otherwise, unworkable majority for Conservatives in the H of C after a GE.

I am old enough to remember Harold Wilson's 1964 GE results when he won with a majority of 4. 18 months later, in 1966, he went to the country and obtained a majority of 96.

Churchill said about winning a majority, "One is enough."

Regardless of our internal disagreements, and I have stuck in my own three ha'p'orth in my time, we have to rid the country of the Brown horror.

[A Cllr]

It amazes me that some people only come out to play when there is bad news.

[Simon Denis]

A pleasant surprise. Could be better, but for two factors - the biased Beeb and the excessively consensual and "responsible" approach taken by the Tories when this storm broke. They should have been shouting that it's all Brown's fault from the first moments of the crisis and kept up the volume. Instead, they offered him support. Never, never, never do it again. Remember, it's his fault; his remedies are snake oil and you need to hammer this home.

[Ian Bennett]

Raj - the apologists are not hiding as you indicate.

Clearly with the 3% degree of fluctuation in any poll the Mori Poll,as I indeed indicated was 2-3% short of probability i.e a Tory lead of around 65.

ICM has always favoured us - Mori tends to shorten us 2-3%.

The reality though should be BLINDINGLY obvious!

This is NO time for back-slapping.

At this stage of Majors final term,with a economy at a similar stage of its cycle Labour were regularly polling 50-55% - we were flat-lining at around 25%.

In recent months we have seen us stuck between 40-44%, and Labour have jumped the 30% threshold regularly now in recent polls - averaging around 33-34%.

AT THIS STAGE IN THE ECONOMIC CLIMATE WE HAVE - The figurs imho Tories @41%,Labour @34%,Lib Dems @15% - @10% floaters - THEN WE ARE IN VERY VERY SERIOUS TROUBLE!

If Brown can continue in the vein he has for the past 8 weeks,if Cameron and Osborne continue to seem weak - and Camerons session with the CBI this morning was an 6/10 performance at best - then we will see ourselves BEHIND in the Polls by the New Year.

That would be a major pshycologocal blow - especially with GB having presidency of the G20 to trumpet for the first 6 months on next year - that I fear DC could NOT recover from!

I am NOT interested in the lead - the FLAT-LINE round 43 5 IS VERY VERY WORRYING AT THIS STAGE OF THE ECONOMIC CYCLE!

[Raj]

11% is still hung parliment Territory.

On the basis of what calculation? Look at the Conhome banner for the poll - it says a majority of 32, which is clearly not a hung parliament.