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They will not call next spring. They want to but this weeks events have blown that out the water. IMOH

So basically he's saying that if the usual "Brutus brigade" keep their daggers sheathed things should be fine? :D

What a completely ridiculous set of circumstances.

+ Obama wins the election for Brown by gracing him with his presence? "Jesus" comes to the UK?

+ The Bank of England cuts mortgage rates despite the fact that it can't and the lenders say they won't keep passing cuts on?

+ No one notices that all these unfunded pledges will rack up the national debt even more?

+ No one loses their jobs in the next five months?

I am rather suspicious of the motivations behind this blog entry. And before anyone asks why I've taken that position, why (on top of coming up with a loony set of factors) didn't he advise on how to avoid Labour winning?

Because he doesn't want the Tories to win (at least under the current leadership).

That's what I'm expecting apart from a suprise tory landslide as the election result.
I'm guessing that as it's winter there's no chance at all in having the elections till part way through next year whatever happens, and then might as well co-ordinate with euros - to come after that date would set a year long election campaign that would see labour run out of cash.

Who gives a stuff any more? Can anyone tell the difference between David and Gordon?

Do either of them have a clue what's going on, or a concern for anything other than their PR?

About 10% of the electorate (which was Labour's core voters) liked his handling of the financial crisis. Well done Lord Mandy.

Many people won't like his behaviour in PMQs.

BUT Lord Mandy has a strategy that involves substantial tax cuts, and other 'good news', with a spring 09 election pencilled in.

If a chunk of the electorate think they'll be better off financially under Labour (HOW WRONG THEY WILL BE), Brown might have shift the polls enough and call an election.

But that doesn't mean he'll win it...

Mr Winnett must be the stupidest commentator the Telegraph have ever employed.

Firstly in his scenario there are mentions of no less than3 cuts in mortgage rates by the government. If he;s been paying attention he'/d know by now that bank rate and mortgage rates are only distant cousins. The banks cannot lend at a lower rate than they can borrow and with the pound as low as it is NOW and getting lower it is unlikely that they'll be able to borrow at all.

Secondly why doesn;t he read the excellent economics correspondents of the paper - Ambrose Evans-Pritchard, Damian Reece, Roger Bootle and several other who know exactly what they are talking about which is clearly not Mr Winnett's strong point!

What is the man" A failed Gossip columnist ??? I see he does "celebrity interviews" -- " the latest and archive interviews with major celebrities from film, music, television and sport,"

THAT explains it ! Now get lost please Mr Winnett.

Winnett Porter and co are why I do not buy the DT or indeed any other newspaper. Pick best bits off web. Barclay brothers have wrecked this paper. Lose their best journalists.
Next election v simple. Unemployed and benefits beneficiaries and most on Govt payroll will vote Labour. Rest of country wil vote Cons with a little left over for Lib DEms.

Unemployed and benefits beneficiaries and most on Govt payroll will vote Labour. Rest of country wil vote Cons with a little left over for Lib DEms.

Labour win then? :(

Its amazing to me how many people - who are clearly not Labour - would rather kick the Conservatives than worry about the Government. Constructive criticism is good, esp from fellows. The Telegraph however is just rubbish. Look forward to even less yield or sales boys.... but you don't care about that do you...

So why are you giving a platform to this newspaper for the second day running?

They are quite obviously now running a campaign against the present Leadership, and the Conservative party because they will not be bounced into following this appalling rag.
And that is what its become!

I think that by giving this latest article floor space here, you are aiding and abetting a newspaper that is fighting a very vigorous campaign against the Conservative party right now.

I think that Cameron has been fully vindicated in the direction in which he and his team took the party, and the Telegraph political team has been continually proved wrong.

A full Diary piece, with a simple "it's not ConHome's view." ????? I hope that Conservative leadership hold firm against this type of behaviour.

Well I suppose it will feed the usual suspects on here some red meat, not that they haven't had enough this week. What about the rest of us?

I'll never tire of saying this, CH are doing a great job. But. Taxes. Thats one area where Cameron's team and CH disagree. Me? I used to be a sharing the proceeds boy. Now? Share the pain. Same formula works. Cut spending and raise taxes - bite the bullet. To spend spend spend is a recipe for pain like you never knew.

Another reason to cancel the DT .

He missed out "Extra run way at Heathrow opened to allow for sudden increase in porcine aviation"

I never thought I’d say this but it’s society, stupid (credit to Andrew Neil for this observation in 2007). The economy will blossom under a Tory Government, but would be inherently unstable if people give Labour a fourth term. We know the Conservatives will look after the economy - they won’t make the mistake they made in the late 1980s joining the ERM to please the Europhiles in the party, which ultimately led to Black Wednesday. They will not repeat the errors committed by Brown.

Tax cuts are important, Osborne should stay in his post (I didn’t think I’d say that either), and the Tories should craft a careful and coherent policy on the economy and taxation. But they should certainly reduce people’s taxes so they have more money in their pocket.

But it’s become clear that Cameron’s strategic decision some time back to focus on the broken society - and IDS has highlighted the endemic social problems that blight kids in broken, welfare-dependent families, which has come to its horrifying inevitable conclusion for poor little Baby P.

"To spend spend spend is a recipe for pain like you never knew."

Oberon, I heartily agree with your comments regard taxation. I keep hearing this argument about cutting taxes right now will stimulate the economy and lower the suffering through this recession, and if Brown and his government had mended the roof during benign economic times, I would agree with that 100%.

But now? With public debt on the books overtaking what it was in 97', and with a truly horrific amount of debt not even on the books, but hidden away instead?
I am really concerned about this recession and what its going to do in the longer term to the UK economy. It still amazes me that the media are not reporting how precarious a position we are in with regards increasing the debt burden further with this Sterling crisis.
If it gets a mention, its only to highlight the fact that exports are cheaper and that's good for the economy.

We are going to have to cut public spending, but only when we have done so, can we find the money to try and stimulate the economy with further targeted tax cuts. All those proposing that we be bold with tax cuts on ConHom, Guido etc are failing to explain how that risk might backfire in the short term with very real consequences for the UK for years to come, nor do they point out that at some point this will have to be paid for with tax increases over the longer term.

Listening to Brown and the government talking and briefing about increased public spending and big tax cuts is just incredible. As the Tories have pointed out, the credit card is already maxed out, we have spent our way into a huge credit bubble that has burst, how does carrying that on at an even bigger rate, increasing everyone's debt even further get us out of this mess?

As I understand it, the more we borrow and spend, the less likely it is, that anyone wants our currency? And if they don't want it, who is going to help facilitate this extra borrowing?

How will that help us find the money to restore the UK's destroyed pensions system any time soon, or help us build a decent transportation system to take us into the next stage of recovery that is not so reliant on oil and gas?
If we get it wrong now, we aren't going to be paying for this for a few years, more like 10-20's years. And what does that mean?
Yep, no affordable tax cuts for a longer period and even more stringent cuts in public services. Sound familiar?
The Telegraph and Co don't get it, Labour is in government at the moment and they will implement their policies. And the Tories, why the hell should we tie ourselves into promising fantasy tax cuts etc for this moment in time, when we know that we have not got a cat in hells chance of being able to deliver them when we get to that GE because of the mess left behind by the government will render us unable too.
Darling and McNulty have already admitted this week that taxes will have to go up very quickly to pay for any short term measures.

That was a really important message, that again some in the right leaning press failed to pick up on, or to see the political dangers for the main opposition party on the back of it. They tell us that tax cuts are the only game in town and the Tories are behind the curve. No they are not, but a Sterling crisis and a trip to the IMF might be, and that will be followed by lots of public spending cuts and tax raises!

That is why I am backing the present strategy from the Treasury team, I think they are being realistic about the mess they are going to inherent, not now, but possible as far a way as 2010. Quite simple, while Brown and his government continue to spin a fantasy picture of the state of the UK economy. The Tories are being open and honest, its not glamorous and sounds boring to some, but its about time someone did start to be realistic.

There is no magic bullet, we are going to have to burden the pain of our long term reliance on so much debt at some point.
Brown could have started to reign in the boom in credit back in 2003, it might have meant a soft landing and ajustment, but instead he loosened the taps further to encourage a false economic feel good atmosphere because there was a GE to win.

This man's short term politic tactics always end up with big boomerangs coming back later to smack him and his government in the face.
But this time, the biggest one, created while he waited and plotted to take over from Blair is the biggest yet. And its going to really hit all of us hard.

Cameron's strategic decision ... - was right.

(the post above should say)

How negative an article can we write. The Conservatives can win and should do. Its upto us.

It's a pity this silly blog was printed here ! But it's extraordinary how people here can rabbit on about a very foolish man whose speciality is "the latest interviews with major celebrities from film, music, television and sport,"and who used his blog to talk rubbishy politics and then extrapolate from that to the merits or otherwise of the Telegraph.

In my work I read all the newspapers every day and in the current financial crisis it is the superb columnist in the Telegraph who wipe the floor with the other papers. The FT lags behind events and uses received opinion, the Times is weak (just think of Anatole Kaletsky - usually wrong) the Guardian is tinged with anti-Americanism, the Mail is undisciplined and inaccurate. Set them against Evans-Pritchard, Reece, Bootle, Randall and many others -superb!

Looks like Kalms wants George out too!

Lord Kalms, a former party Treasurer and the founder of the Dixons retail empire, has given voice to the discontent felt by many disgruntled backbench MPs and influential Tory figures who have privately called on David Cameron to dismiss his close ally following a sharp fall in the party's opinion poll ratings.

Lord Kalms told The Daily Telegraph: "You need someone who relates absolutely to working people who is heavyweight. I think George is a first-class man but I'd like to see a bit more grey hair on the front bench.

"David Davis [the former shadow Home Secretary] would be absolutely the right man at this time as shadow Chancellor. I am informing everyone who will listen that change needs to happen."

Nothing is inherently wrong in any post here, we all have our opinions and we all want the party to win the election. However it is better to have this discussed openly rather than shout down people who are concerned about the party in general and have a wider world-view than some of us political animals. My all-but-brother-in-law - not a committed voter - is a potential Tory supporter, but he feels let down by Cameron, particularly the incident over the bike. He says the more he sees of Cameron, the more he's put off having him as Prime Minister. This was somewhat before the Labour conference and "Brown bounce" but I'm not sure that the Telegraph is so far wrong.

In a week when two days' worth of fanfare led to something that was widely panned by the people who can usually be relied upon to support our other proposals (and was hardly worth it to begin with in terms of how it was presented as the be-all and end-all of tax cut policy rather than a nice little initiative like I believe it is), I'm not sure that the promise suggested by people on this site is actually there in reality. The Conservative Party needs to demonstrate that some of the brilliant thinking they claim to see in Osborne and Cameron is actually there in the way that the party is led, rather than in countless blogs and the heads of people like Howard Flight or John Redwood who don't often get the ear of the actual leadership.

Personally I am concerned that the debate is taking place in the Telegraph, usually pretty pro-us. If it was in the Guardian I'd dismiss it. If it was in the Independent or the Times, maybe it gains in importance, but still may be dismissed by some people. But the Telegraph? Erm...how much more pro-us can you get? Be ostriches, but people who are concerned about the party's prospects are not limited to this site.

I'm trying not to whinge, but how long can we let things run and then come back with some brilliant idea to actually realise the capital invested in the next election? I'm interested in the Conservative Party being more than the sum of its parts, and to that end if the discussion here now allows us to really look critically at things, we might turn this gloomy prognosis into a more hopeful outlook.

Spooky! Just seen the front page of the Times!

"It's not ConHome's view", but it suits you to print it doesn't it?
Regulars to this site will notice that any quote from an article about Cameron or Osborne will include possibly the only negative reference to them.
You may be pro Tory, but you ain't pro the present leadership. Are you after the Telegraph's editorship Tim?

"Personally I am concerned that the debate is taking place in the Telegraph, usually pretty pro-us. If it was in the Guardian I'd dismiss it"

Louise, it would help if you actually appeared to follow politics outside of this site. The Telegraph is not pro-us, and it has not been that way since about the time Cameron became leader of the party.
Its ownership changed, many journalists have left, and those that are there now all appear to be less than favourable to Cameron and the present leadership team.

The Guardian on the other hand has warmed to the Conservatives under Cameron's leadership.
That is a simple fact.

By the way, if your relative has a problem with Cameron because of the bike incident.
How does that square with the last 11 years of spin and dishonesty from this government, much of it very serious, and with real consequences?

Tim, you have taken the silver, just as Robinson. My wife asked me if I would accept the silver, if asked. No, No, No, I would sooner die than be part of this dreadful, manipulated world order and that ghastly man, Brown and the likes of Mandleson.
Suffer little children. We were all those innocents once. Now it is fashionable to pretend we were not. Tim. you are becoming seduced by your influence and very arrogance. Baby P. was let down by the establishment you are so readily keen to join. Shame on you

Louise, have you also taken the shilling? We should be proud of our Party and of our leadership. It is the job of Mandleson to stop that. Wake up world.

ChrisD you're talking rubbish. I listed minutes ago the actual record in the present economic crisis of the main players. All along the Telegraph has been right and ahead of the curve while the others are trying to catch up after the caravan has moved on.

So Heffer doesn't like Cameron. Neither do I but he's the party leader and we're stuck with him now.

As for the current crisis and Osborne's article it was perhaps right that Osborne should state his views in front of a more hostile bunch of journalists it is hard to imagine. One at least was a founder Blairite!

Osborne is right to say that the public distrust ‘borrowing to cut taxes’. The polls have said so. But his mantra about properly funded tax cuts will not work unless it is married to a proper cut in expenditure of a major nature. Tinkering will not do and I repeatedly point to two big programmes which would save billions. (NHS centralised computer system and ID cards). Everybody will produce alternatives but unless they can be implemented without legislation and speedily - forget them. Economists suggest that minimum tax cuts of £20 bn would be necessary to be effective.

So the crux of the matter in judging Tory policies is will they grasp the nettle of expenditure cuts ?

"ChrisD you're talking rubbish. I listed minutes ago the actual record in the present economic crisis of the main players. All along the Telegraph has been right and ahead of the curve while the others are trying to catch up after the caravan has moved on."

Christina, really?
I think the Telegraph has been consistently behind the curve politically for about 3 years. Now, you may disagree about their financial reporting over that period, but what ever they are serving up, its not been a coherent and joined up message between the two!

Another thought on the choice of going with this article for a Tory Diary piece.

I noticed the Liam Fox video profile.
Yet, the Tory PPC in my neighbouring constituency has decided to write a blog entry on Liam Fox's concerns about the government's present policy with regards Afghanistan.

I would have thought that a diary article here might have been a better use of this forum than giving succour to this Telegraph campaign against the Conservative party?

Just a thought, but are people likely to vote Conservative at a time of mass unemployment given the party's proposed TWO-YEAR LIMIT on job seekers' allowance and the plans for workfare?

Just a thought, but as the media narrative moves, will it resonate with some here and at the Telegraph?
I warned on an earlier post that this was happening, but no, some still cling to the fact that following Brown's reckless behaviour for political reasons will leave the Tories exposed, errr, for political reasons?

Have the Tories the guts to be the voice of financial sanity?

After the comments made by Lord Kalms today, you can place a big red tick next to #2. Looks like the infighting has already begun ...

I don't know about the national picture but in the North East, North West, Scotland and probably Wales - the way to make sure we lose (or simply go backwards) is to keep Osborne in post. He might go down well in Barnes and Chipping Norton - but there is a level of hatred brewing up here which will play right into socialist hands...We need a more balanced front bench urgently...

Don't say you weren't warned DC and the Notting Hill set.

What disappoints me is that the Tories have not yet come out with proposals to cut out waste - like ID cards, Regional Assemblies and the many other useless quangos stuffed with unelected bods who are happy to take the cash.

They supported the ridiculous Climate Change Bill, passed in the House by 620 votes to 5. Wasting time on this when the country is rapidly going down the economic drain and a power crisis is looming. Another case of arranging the deckchairs on the Titanic. Will they ever learn?

" He might go down well in Barnes and Chipping Norton "

Wearside Tory , hey don't bad mouth Conservatives from Barnes, I was a member of the local Conservative party there, did hand out Conservative literature on Sheen high street for Hague’s general election campaign, but have been so exasperated at Osborne's feeble showing as Shadow Chancellor I resigned as a Conservative party member, and if there is a reason for the Conservatives to fail to win the next election, one of the main reasons for it will be the failure of the Conservatives to hold this Government to account over their economy policies, and failed to put forward any serious policies that people can have any confidence it will help get the country out of the economic hole Brown has put us in.

Speaking with many people around Essex the general feedback is that most people hate the three main parties. People feel that they have been sold a dodgy deal over the benefits of mass immigration and they are fed up to the back teeth with the massive levels of high taxes and stealth taxes, they also hate all the political correctness rubbish and they feel (rightly or wrongly )that the European Union has damaged Britain and they want to leave it as soon as possible. The Tories under Cameron and Osborne are failing to address these problems and as the economy fails and people start losing their jobs - people are starting to look for alternatives to Labour, LibDems and the Tories.

Amazed that a poor counterfactual article like this is considered worthy of comment on Conservative Home.

Those who don't like the Telegraph will find their blood boiling at today's leader. Personally I find it an agonised cry for the Tories to get hopping mad before it's too late and our country's gone - It's entitled "The Tories should be as angry as the rest of us" and is on:-

What disappoints me is that the Tories have not yet come out with proposals to cut out waste - like ID cards, Regional Assemblies and the many other useless quangos stuffed with unelected bods who are happy to take the cash.

Edward, are you living in a parallel universe?! They have certainly committed to scrapping ID cards and the database that goes with it - quangos have been earmarked for scrapping too, though it might take longer to re-deploy their functions.

Yes you are right Raj - the Tories are against ID cards but have gone very quiet over quangos. A lot of Conservative councillors have their fingers in these pies.

And what about them backing the Climate Change Bill? If this nonsense isn`t stopped we are all in for some cold dark nights. Two thirds of us don`t believe in global warming yet 620 MPs voted for the Bill and only 5 against. Somebody is mad - perhaps it is us.

Amazed that a poor counterfactual article like this is considered worthy of comment on Conservative Home.

Posted by: Malcolm Dunn | November 15, 2008 at 09:28

Malcolm: I believe that you are amazed that anyone can criticise Cameron and his Tories. Whilst no doubt the Tories would be a better government than Labour, but as has been pointed out, for the many that do not read this blog that does not mean much and to them does Cameron have much relevance?
The piece by Winnett is a warning shot. Brown will do all he can in the way of bribery of voters to win the next GE; as usual it will be his to lose.
The Tories cannot sit back believing that the game has been won - as far as I am concerned it hasn't.

"How the Conservatives lose the next election"
Brown cuts taxes... Osborne doesn't find room for serious tax cuts... Infighting breaks out inside Tory Party... Lots of interest rate cuts... Caroline Spelman forced to resign over nannygate... Barack meets Brown... Then narrow Labour election win early next year...

That's the theory of Robert Winnett over at The Telegraph.

"How Labour may lose the next election"

Brown cuts taxes...Sterling takes a pounding.

Osborne finds room for serious tax cuts by cutting Governement spending.

Infighting breaks out inside Labour Party.

Lots of interest rate cuts.

Caroline Spelman is exonerated !

Barack meets Brown and then David Cameron.

George Osborne is moved sideways, Redwood takes over as shadow chancellor (Renamed Kanzler). Clark is brought back into the front benches from where he nails Brown on a number of occasions.

All this is follwed by a landslide victory for the Tories next year.See anyone can write fiction it's of no importance.

The BBC has just made this the main topic on World At One and Mr. Osborne does not come out of it very well.

He should have known better than talk down our currency. Labour are loving this, of course. and I can`t say I blame them. I shall be surprised if the shadow chancellor survives this (another) disaster.

All signs are pointing to an early election with Mandy "neutralising" the negatives. Everything from abolishing SATs for 14 year olds to NHS top up fees, laying off the "metric martyrs" and now the reprieve for the remaning post offices. He is not going to make the Major mistake of hanging on to the bitter end in the hope that something will turn up. It won't - you make the weather and the Tories are bystanders at the moment.

Chris - I do follow politics outside this site. Do you?

If not, I suggest you read round the rest of the press. It's not just the Telegraph that is attacking us. It's my parents, potential Tory voters like my sister's boyfriend, other people.

I'm afraid you're the blinkered one, not me.

Robert Blake, spot on.

We are reaping the reward for our 'me too' policy of matching Labour's spending pledges.

So sad that our Leaders didn't articulate our traditional belief in small Government over the last 3 years.

Now Labour are clearing their decks to have snap poll as we stand mute and wrong-footed over the economy.

We need to junk our utterly bypassed 'social' agenda and tell it like it is on the economy; what price now Polar bears and windmills?

I have cleared my diary for February and suggest others do the same!!

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