Better news for the Conservatives in the ComRes/Independent on Sunday poll

John Rentoul has news of the Independent on Sunday/Com Res poll out tomorrow:

Con - 43% (+4)

Lab - 32% (+1)

Lib Dem - 12% (-4)

Oth - 13% (-1)

In contrast to the You Gov/Sunday Times poll also out tomorrow, it shows the Conservative lead widening, with a significant dip in Lib Dem ratings...

9.30am, Sunday, here's the graphic:

Comments

[Will S]

I wonder how long it will be until the Lib Dems realise that Clegg is rubbish...?

[steve]

And how long it will be before conservatives
realise Cameron and Co are good a PR but peel away the makeover and there is nothing there, how can an opposition in this climate not be 25 points ahead! they may have the new labour how to get elected manual, but they seem to have missed a couple of chapters! if this was pre 97 labour would have been miles ahead they wouldnt have been playing catch up! and this is before what will surely be a giveaway budget and when it comes down to it people will not care whether it adds to borrowing!

If they cared about that so many people wouldnt be in debt up to their eyebrows! they will just see labour giving them back money when they need it and the conservatives acting like bank managers who moan when you go over your overdraft!

[Raj]

how can an opposition in this climate not be 25 points ahead

Thatcher's best lead was 15% - when was the last time anyone had a lead of 25% at a general election?!

steve go back to Labourhome - you're too obvious.

[A Cllr]

Amazing that there is more posts on the Sunday Times poll. It is obvious who on here is a real tory and who is a Labour plant.

[RichardJ]

Political betting suggests there was more fieldwork for this poll after the Baby P clash than the Yougov poll.

[Paul D]

No gloating comment from NorthernMonkey on this poll? I'm shocked...

[pp]

Well done the shadow front bench - keep up the good work.

Hope they don't spend much (i.e. any) time thinking about how to please those who clearly will never be pleased...

You can erect a big tent, but you can't force people to enter it. The entrances are clearly marked if people choose to ignroe them and whinge from the outside that is their lookout.

[steve]

by the way I voted conservative in 92 labour in 97 so im no Labour die hard! and by Labour were polling 20 to 25 percent ahead in the two years running up to the 97 election, was just making a point

[MrB]

Polling numbers have nothing, or at most very little to do with George Osborne or our policies. They are about as influential as Ann Widdicombe's cats in moving the opinion polls. It's all about the amount of media exposure. David Cameron on tv = opinion poll rises. It is actually that simple! Even when DC has been on tv for the wrong reasons, the opinion polls still rise. It's well documented on Political Betting.

[A Cllr]

steve

the polls that count eg London Mayoral, local elections, the polls of mariginal seats show a very healthy Conservative lead.

Somthing which you seem to have difficulty with.

[Dan]

This is a good poll. I can see that everybody is trying to blame brilliant George Osborne for our decline in the polls but may be you should try and think back: he was the only man who had the courage to take up the position after it was declined by Hague and Cameron.

George had been doing well until recently but he must be given chance to come back again. I am sure he would make a good chancellor.

Perhaps you should ask Hague and Cameron why they declined the offer when it was offered to them by Howard?

[The Huntsman]

"if this was pre 97 labour would have been miles ahead"

@21:38

This is not 1997 and the conditions both economically and politically are so far removed from then that no valid comparison with 1997 can be made.

This is an unique state of affairs for which there is no rule book as such.

That is not to say that unease at how effective our attack on Shyster Brown and his Three Card Trick Team is not warranted. The sense of an unguarded Try Line not being crossed every five minutes is plainly in people's minds. The 1st XV ought to be out there giving Brown a shoeing, engendering real anger at the reckless blowing of our grandchildren's inheritance.

Brown is being allowed to have far too many of his lies and otherwise outrageous utterances pass unchallenged. If there is a rebuttal unit, it is not doing enough rebutting.

That said, the Brown Bounce seems not to have much to it at the moment but we have to get on his back rather more.

[Raj]

ACllr

Amazing that there is more posts on the Sunday Times poll. It is obvious who on here is a real tory and who is a Labour plant.

The Sunday Times poll was out earlier and people there were commenting on this too.

++++

steve

Labour were polling 20 to 25 percent ahead in the two years running up to the 97 election, was just making a point

And if you knew anything about the polls you'd know the pollsters made massive mistakes so the results were too heavy towards Labour. They've learnt from that now.

++++

RichardJ

Yes, it's possible PMQs could have made a slight difference.

[ChrisD]

"Perhaps you should ask Hague and Cameron why they declined the offer when it was offered to them by Howard?"

Really? Odd that, when you consider that Howard was hoping to see Osborne become Tory leader...

But then, Osborne was astute enough to recognise where his talents lay, and that Cameron was the better politician to be leader.

[Clive]

I've no doubt that Osbourne is a great asset to the party and will play a vital role in the future of the Tories.
However I think that he could do his greatest service, at this point in the financial crisis, by standing down in favour of somebody who has the necessary gravitas. I'm torn between David Davies and Ken Clarke!

[pp]

Brown won't win the next GE for a very simple reason...

People remember John Major. He rode in on maggies coat tails - and come the GE he was given the benefit of the doubt and put back in to to develop his 'cones hotline'.

Labour ignored history and stabbed their maggie (or should that be magi) in the back, and brown rode in -- this time around people will be far less willing to give any 'benefit of the doubt' to dubious replacements of (originally) popular PMs.

Day to day stuff that happens over days/weeks/months is only a part of the equation - the majority of people who dont express a preference are probably driven by these more long term considerations, they won't make a decision until all of the facts are in.

[the bishop swine]

I've no doubt that Osbourne is a great asset to the party and will play a vital role in the future of the Tories.

Lets say that gain folks:

I've no doubt that Osbourne is a great asset to the party and will play a vital role in the future of the Tories.

I hope to see far more of the George of the last 24hrs...put the boot in brother.
The markets judgement of Brown is that he is crap.

[Dave]

Interesting to see such diverse polls. We live in an era of political flux where nothing can be taken for granted.These contradictory poll ratings should serve as a warning that all is to play for. Remember most governemnts recovery prior to a general election and that we won in 83 and 92 when the economy seemed to be deep in the ***t. I can't help feeling that unless Cameron and Osbopurne don't develop a convincing narrative we will snatch defeat from the jaws of victory and then where will the centre right be?

[Gloy Plopwell]

These Lib dem figers are disapointing but only a temporary setback. Been blacked out!!It's a two stage strategy, and still on time. - overtake Labour first around Christmas, then overtake the Tories aswelll, end of 2009. lib dems are clear and best days are ahead - lib dems have dumped all the old bagage. The fabulous stupendous momentum will resume!!!

[James H]

Good stuff! Especially important to see the percentages against further borrowing to fund tax cuts.

And- just for the record of shoddy journalists trying to keep a dying story about Osborne alive: Osborne must stay; he is doing a good job on the economy in tricky circumstances, and is central to the party as it is today. Quote that why don't you!

[Dave]

I take it Gloy has just returned from a good night at the pub. Tell me Gloy what on earht have you been drinking so that I can aviod it. The left will vote Lbour under Brown not Liberal this will heklp the tories in the south and south west but help Lbour in the midlands and north.

[Dave]

Please excuse typos for I have just returnmed form the pub after enjoying several pints of peculiar. Ninght Night Ha Ha

[ChrisD]

"However I think that he could do his greatest service, at this point in the financial crisis, by standing down in favour of somebody who has the necessary gravitas. I'm torn between David Davies and Ken Clarke!"

While being a fan of both Davies and Clarke as Conservative politicians, I think that its about time that we challenged this natural assumption by some on here who all too quickly misremember certain vital points in recent years.

The last leadership contest pitted both men against Cameron and his campaign manager.

Who came out as the winner amongst the Tory membership?
And when you examine why that happened, a better campaign which showed more ambition and hunger to drive the party towards the change it needed to achieve to become electable.
Cameron and Osborne were more focussed and organised, and it showed.
It gave Cameron a real gravitas that belied his years in comparison to the other candidates. And he is really looking and sounding like a PM.

And many on here are too quick to fall into the gaping trap that the Labour did get caught in when Blair stood down.
They went for the man the perceived as having *gravitas*, and they didn't even bother with a leadership election to prove if the myth was correct or not.

Because quite simple, Brown is a terrible PM totally lacking in the political skills required. And as for Darling, well I know who has the better *Shadow Chancellor*, and it isn't Labour!

[Andrew S]

"I can't help feeling that unless Cameron and Osbopurne don't develop a convincing narrative we will snatch defeat from the jaws of victory and then where will the centre right be?"

Something that I too am feeling. Although look on the bright side, if Labour win the next election we can be almost certain they will have this rear ends kicked in 2014/2015.

[Peter Harrison]

"Remember most governemnts recovery prior to a general election"

Whilst that is received wisdom, it isn't actually true. The evidence from polls is that there is a swing to the Conservatives as an election approaches, regardless of whether we are in power or in opposition.

On the available data, it still seems that the Labour "recovery" is largely increased certainty to vote amongst their own supporters coupled with some voters switching from the LibDems. The Conservative vote, which many insisted was soft, is proving anything but and holding strong at over 40%.

The news media (in particular the BBC) will not be able to ignore Cameron in an election campaign the way they have recently. The more the public see of Cameron, the higher our lead.

With potentially 19 months till the next election, there is a lot of time for things to go wrong. But I still expect Cameron to be our next PM.

[James]

If I were a Conservative politician I would not be certain by any means of victory at the next General Election.

In all probability there will be a Hung Parliament with a Labour/ Liberal Democrat Government.

The Tories need an 8% lead at the polls to win a majority of 1. Even given the 11% lead in this poll, this is not sustained in the Sunday Times YouGov opinion poll where the lead is only 5%.

A Lab/ Lib Dem Government cue electoral reform. Ditto. Eternal opposition for the Tories???

[James]

Andrew S

If I were you I wouldn't be so confident to look on the bright side. If the Tories lose the next election they will face a severe electoral and ideological crisis.

After all what has happened to the Global electoral tide with the fall out from the Credit Crunch election of Barak Obama, a progressive, in America??

[Tony Makara]

"The news media (in particular the BBC) will not be able to ignore Cameron"

Very true. David Cameron is the human face of politics unlike the automoton Brown who just parrots off unemployment data from 25 years ago like a clockwork dummy. I agree that the more the voters see of David Cameron the more he will contrast favorably against Brown's bland brand.

[Iain is stupid!]

"Please excuse typos for I have just returnmed form the pub after enjoying several pints of peculiar. Ninght Night Ha Ha"

Posted by: Dave | November 15, 2008 at 23:34

You are so stupid even Iain Dale is breathing a sigh of relief!

[Winston C]

Some of the posts on this thread are unbelievable!Please remember that only 12 short months ago the polls all pointed to a Labour Landslide.This followed from Brown's coronation and came after a long period of tory poll leads.

Then almost in the blink of an eye all of this changed.Brown proved he has serious character and judgement flaws and we all know what happened.The fact is he is the same man with the same flaws.Brown has no vision he is uncollegiate and really limited.He,in short,can not lead.The real reason that Labour has recovered a little in the polls has nothing to do with George Osbourne's "shortcomings" but everything to do with events.

Brown has had the oppourtunity to masquerade as some sort of economic superhuman strutting the world stage.This combined with peoples well understood concerns has given Brown his " Bounce".

However is it not reasonable to ask here how long did his last bounce and what happened subsequently?

Our responsibilty now is to think clearly and not be drawn into hasty and irrational decisions.George Osbourne needs to recover his poise and go on the attack.He is quite capable of doing this.I wholly support his speaking out in the Times because he is absolutely correct.It is not Osbourne talking the pound down but Brown's actions that are debasing our currency.

The attack should now be broadened to attack unfunded tax cuts.We should turn our fire on spending plans.ID cards,Health and Education budgets need to be central.Why not pledge to Freeze health and education spending and abandon id cards to for a start.This would resonate with ordinary families who are facing the same choices and effectively do exactly the identical thing.

George Osbourne is the man to lead this.He needs to step up to the plate and make the case.Borrow more and store up more problems and potential problems or force the public sector to pay heed to how it spends our money.

[RichardJ]

While Labour is gaining from the Lib Dems rather than us and our previous leads were unsustainable I would feel somewhat safer if we were regularly hitting 43/44% in all polls.

[Clive]

"Why not pledge to Freeze health and education spending"

Winston c. I'm sorry but this is just the sort of madness that will undoubtedly ensure yet another Labour victory.

[Clive]

"And many on here are too quick to fall into the gaping trap that the Labour did get caught in when Blair stood down.
They went for the man the perceived as having *gravitas*, and they didn't even bother with a leadership election to prove if the myth was correct or not"

ChrisD - I think you have a very valid point here.
When Blair went I really felt that the public had had enough of the phoney, touchy feely, heart on sleeve model of political leadership we put up with for so long. But now it seems that everyone has fallen back in love with that style again. Even Brown has brought back Campbell and Mandelson! I personally didn't even like the way that Mr Cameron raised the Baby P case in the bearpit of PMQs. I much prefer a more restrained cerebral approach but I know I'm in a minority and will have to accept that what people want is a "People's Prime Minister"!

[Joe James B]

"Why not pledge to Freeze health and education spending"

Actually, this happened between 1976 and 1978.

[Richard]

"Well done the shadow front bench - keep up the good work."

Most of the Shadow Cabinet are never in the news! Did anyone see Top Gear last night? If you did you will have seen them discussing who the Shadow Transport Secreatry was, not one of them knew. In the end a chap in the audience shouted out that it was Theresa Villiers. She is a joke!

[The Bishop Swine]

Theresa Villiers is not a joke, she is a well respected MP. Please be contructive.
Chipping Barnet is very well served by her.
I agree that the Shadows are not as visable as they should be, but you can blame the BBC. SKY. and the Mail for that.

[Richard]

"Theresa Villiers is not a joke, she is a well respected MP. Please be contructive.
Chipping Barnet is very well served by her.
I agree that the Shadows are not as visable as they should be, but you can blame the BBC. SKY. and the Mail for that."

I do not doubt that she is a good constituency MP, what I do doubt is her ability to be a member of the Shadow Cabinet. She was quickly removed from the Shadow Treasury Team and has failed to make any impact as Shadow Transport Secretary. Her performances at the Dispatch Box and on programmes like Question Time show how weak she is. The sooner she is replaced the better.

The fact that our Shadow Cabinet are not featured more on the BBC, Sky etc is not the fault of the media, it is the fault of the Conservative Party. If our Shadow Cabinet had something constructive to say they would be in the press all the time.

[The Bishop Swine]

Thanks Richard, for taking the time to give some reason for your previous comment. I agree with your last point to an extent. If everyone was willing to give constructive comments the party would learn from them. There are members of the Junior shadow team who should be given more air time, one way or another. Mark Harper as an example would grow in confidence and stature if pushed into the light a little more. He has been given a very difficult job and I am very intrested in hearing his ideas on welfare reform. Lets try to work together for the good of the nation.

[Fergus Pickering]

I have just realised (silly me!) why people mis-spell George Osborne's name. The are confusung him with Ozzie Osbourne, the wel-known drunk. People who do that are obviously rathe stupid. Ergo, let's ignore anybody who can#t spell Osborne right.