YouGov: Labour boosted by economic crisis

Today's opinion poll for YouGov in the Sunday Times has the Conservatives ten points ahead of Labour:

Anthony Wells of YouGov and UK Polling Report comments:

"The poll was conducted between the 9th and 10th October so, while the Populus poll in the middle of week would have caught part of the recent economic troubles, this is the first poll to taken after the government’s rescue plan. While the change from YouGov’s last poll isn’t that dramatic, looking at the wider trend it is a significant improvement for the government when you consider that from May to September YouGov were consistently showing Tory leads in the region of 20 points."

Wells notes that while the poll shows more trust for Brown and Darling than Cameron and Osborne in the current crisis, it also shows a preference for the Conservative team over longer-term issues like the standard of living.

Few voters welcome the return of Peter Mandelson.

> Over at ConservativeInternational we note that many centre right parties are suffering from the financial global crisis.

Comments

[Tony Makara]

The Conservative leadership may well pay the price for believing an election can be won on social policy alone. Recent attempts to shadow the Labour government over the lending crisis have made David Cameron and George Osborne look passive. The Conservative leadership should have used the financial crisis to destroy Brown, who over eleven years has been a prime mover in the debt culture. Now the idea of a Labour revival and electoral victory is a stark reality. Recent events have reactivated the core Labour support. The other day a friend of mine, a lifelong Labour supporter was brimming over with optimism about the fact that Gordon was nationalizing the banks. All this has happened because the Conservative leadership have failed to develop an independent economic policy or response to the lending crisis.

[M Dowding]

Tony, I agre with much of what you say but this is still winning territory. When the real pain of grotesque Brown and Labour led debt hits, watch the change. These Banks are still basket cases with or without taxpayers borrowed money. As is the British economy.

[Freddie Fencepost]

Just watched Cameron interviewed on Sky

What a disaster!

Backing Brown, what next. He's thrown away a 20 point lead.

Are we really trying to snatch defeat from the jaws of victory.

Brown has appeared statesman like an is seen as "the man with the plan"

Cameron is left dithering, out of his depth and nowhere to go.

A week is a long time in politics. We are all socialists now

[John Broughton]

Much of the responsibility for the current crisis is Browns. We should make this clear at all times.

Nevertheless we should support sensible moves to provide stability to the banking sector. John Redwood has had a lot to say on the topic recently that makes absolute sense.

What about asking John to join the shadow cabinet with the specific brief of tackling the crisis?

[Ken Stevens]

"Few voters welcome the return of Peter Mandelson."

Yet still the Labour percentage went up and your's went down.

The message isn't getting through to link Brown & Co with the cause of the problem, rather than being seen as the potential saviours.

You are going to have to work so hard in the meantime to gain a workeable majority at next GE. How about some clear blue water between you and Labour?

[Tony Makara]

John Redwood needs to be given a special remit to follow andspeak on the lending issue, not just for now, but post-crisis, if we ever arrive at such a point. Mr Redwood has been the only senior Conservative politician to follow events as they have unfolded.

[Martin Cole]

David Davis, this morning on Andrew Marr - focused, well-informed and making clear sense on the topics he wished to cover.

David Cameron on Sky News with Adam Boulton this morning - absolutely lamentable.

An example - the suggestion that the rule on annuities must be purchased by seventy-fifth birthday be waived = what for a month asks AB!! Precisely, does Cameron really think for a moment things will be any better in the foreseeable future - he must do so - why else suggest a waiver of the rule which will only permit those foolish enough to have deferred annuity uptake until their seventy-fifth birthdays to become ever more impoverished.

Maybe slick Dave thinks everything will return to a speculators free-for-all in six months - his Foreign Spokesman whooping it up on Lake Como at a Barclay's Wealth Bash this weekend, certainly indicates Dave is not alone in the present Shadow Cabinet in such crass stupidity.

My "Ironies Too Blog" regularly reports on the real nature of the crisis, and in September has some posts with suggestions on the HOUSE PRICE crisis, the true underlying issue which the Tories should have long ago grasped and been everyday pressing as the centre of their OPPOSITION (remember that)to this dreadful government.

[sally Roberts]

If you all remember, when David Cameron first became leader he promised an "end to Punch and Judy politics"!

Now he is promising on what he delivered then and is being criticised for it.

The vast majority of the British public dislike "Punch and Judy politics" intensely and I believe that David Cameron's wish to work constructively with the Government where there IS common ground to be found is a grown-up approach which will resonate with the electorate - PROVIDED that we can overcome the problem of media bias which is raising its ugly head in a big way at the moment.
The Conservative Party is not achieving the coverage it should at the moment - NuLab's spin doctors appear rejuvenated - no coincidence that this is timed with the return of the Prince of Darkness as well as the old team of Campbell and Draper...

We need to come out of the Blue Corner punching hard - and be SEEN to be punching hard!

[Peter Buss]

I can't believe some of the comments about David Cameron. I very much agree with Sally. I thought Cameron was excellent on Sky this morning. He answered every question articulately, gave a reasoned argument for his conditional support for Brown's rescue plan which after all has received widespread suppoort from across the media political spectrum.The guy is a patriot first and foremost and it really is all hands to the pump time. he can still give constructive criticism of the Govt and I have no doubt he will.
As for David Davis - whilst I agree he was OK this am with Marr,I can't trust a guy who had a hissy and walked off stage to fight a totally meaningless by election.
Likewise I have no confidence in Redwood. He's a very clever chap - but cleverness doesn't always equate with good sense and quite friankly he's so dogma diven he scares the living daylights out of me - and would do the same for the great majority of the British public.

[RichardJ]

"The vast majority of the British public dislike "Punch and Judy politics" intensely and I believe that David Cameron's wish to work constructively with the Government where there IS common ground to be found is a grown-up approach which will resonate with the electorate"

How is it punch and judy politics to point that that Brown was partially responsible for this mess by telling the BoE to target the CPI rate of inflation rather than RPIX?

[sally Roberts]

"How is it punch and judy politics to point that that Brown was partially responsible for this mess by telling the BoE to target the CPI rate of inflation rather than RPIX?"

It isn't RichardJ! "Punch and Judy politics" doesn't mean NEVER being critical - far from it - but it does mean taking a mature approach and not just being "knockabout" for the sake of it!

Peter Buss thanks for your constructive support - now is the time for politicians to be grown up and not be flaky or prima-donna'ish...!

[sally Roberts]

Sorry - I meant to say The absence of Punch and Judy Politics...!!

I need some more caffeine.... :-)

[Cleethorpes Rock]

I know we've been useless over the economic crisis, but let's face it; any voter moving back to Gordon Brown and Labour after this is completely and utterly RETARDED.

Labour should be on 10% after what they've done to this country and all we do is ledge to support them while they print more money and run the country further into the red. We're committed to running the same entitlements system, the same bloated welfare state, the same (if not more so) meddling foreign policy and to keeping government as big as the political class can get away with.

Gordon Brown regularly boasted of low interest rates and the growth in the economy, when most of us could see it was all built on debt. Instead of taking Brown to task on the issue, we gave in to the idea that he was somehow an economic genius, which is now coming back to haunt us as Brown paints himself as the statesman.

Cut spending
Cut borrowing
Cut taxes
Balance the budget

[Bob]

Editor, I think you have the poll numbers wrong. Given some of the comments on here we can't possibly have a 10-point lead during Labour's best news cycle for a year, can we?

[David Parker]

I don't think that the swing in the polls is based so much upon any public understanding of the causes and proposed solutions of the present crisis, as upon their perception of these, as portrayed by Labour's spin and publicity, which, so far, has outflanked the Conservative party.

It may be that Cameron is relying upon the effects of the crisis to become more widely felt by the general public, in the belief that they will then, rightly, blame Brown and the Government for the years of maladministration. But this could be a mistake, leading to a perception (aided by the BBC) that he lacked the qualities of leadership at a crucial time.
Once public confidence in the Tories has begun to erode it will be very difficult to regain this.

The Conservatives presumably have a publicity machine on standby for an early election; is this capable of matching the formidable Labour spin machine,(which is probably the most successful thing they have ever created) and can it be deployed rapidly enough to stop the rot?

[christina Speight]

My response to this and the forecast of a skinny Tory majority is that Cameron has only got himself to blame. He has endorsed almost uncritically Brown's plans so - not surprisingly -at the moment some of the voters forget who was the prime cause of the near-collapse and feel that they ought to back the author of the rescue plans - after all, Cameron does!

I've been saying - to considerable flak - that Cameron is wet. It now seems that he hasn't grasped what the crisis is about and is economically floundering. If - as seems more than possible - Labour wins a fourth term it will be the fault of Cameron and his juvenile advisers.

Get out there for heaven's sake and pin the blame squarely where it belongs and every endorsement of a government policy should carry a Tory Health Warning that 'It was Brown that caused it'

[john]

Go to Politicalbetting.com for a a more encouraging view of the Yougov poll.

[sbjme19]

In the now released details of the YouGov poll, Brown fails on every question - see pb.com.

[Just a thought]

Slightly suspicious about this poll. The media narrative has changed in recent weeks to the "oh! what a great leader" Broon is. This poll could have been carefully crafted to fit the media narrative. Or, it simply shows the power of Labour's media friends, mainly the BBC, in spinning Labour bullshit. Not to mention, the army of publicly funded voters that Labour has created, they want any excuse to put their crosses back in Labour's box. If public opinion really is shifting back to Labour, then the only option, for any decent person, is to leave the country, too many of the people in it are clearly idiotic and want to see the destruction of this country.

[Winston C]

I doubt very much that the movement in the polls is of any significant lasting nature.The fundamentals remain:we are entering a severe recession which will wreak havoc in the real economy.The ability to respond to this crisis is severely limited by the size scope and cost of Brown's client state.

There is now need for DC to provide a critique of the banking meltdown at this time.Most electors are simply trying to deal with the effects of the carnage and not worrying too much about a deep analysis of the causes.That will come later as jobs are lost,spending on the high street collapses and houses are repossesed.

All of this will take place with Brown unable to respond boxed in by his bloated client state and the massive failure of Labour's social engineering failure.I share much of the above sentiments on tax and spend but at present we must remember Cameron and Osborne must catch the mood.It is inevitable that Brown's stock will rise a little but this will not last.His personality and inablity to act decisively and in a collegiate fashion will tear his government apart.

Against this background Cameron is right to bide his time.The poll leads will soon widen once again.This is not complacency just a recognition of what we are about to face!

[david webb]

The left's take over of the Conservative party is almost complete. The final move of course is to form a coalition government with Gordon.
Welcome to Marxist Britain.

[Patsy Sergeant]

Freddie Fencepost @ 10.23 - 'We are all socialists now' - Speak for yourself on that one, thank you very much!

Socialists believe in 'big' government, I think it has been said...

Peter Oborne had an interesting little piece in yesterday's Mail, entitled 'We'll all pay for this monstrosity', these are the first two paragraphs:-

'The reshuffle has been widely hailed as a masterpiece which has ensured Gordon Brown's survival as Prime Minister for the foreseeable future. However, close examination of the full team of ministers, published only at the end of last week, tells a different story.

'Apart from the long list of duds and incompetents, the sheer size of the Government - by some distance the largest in British history - is deeply disturbing. As Andrew Sparrow, a historian in the parliamentary press gallery, has noted, there are now 121 ministers. In 1979, Margaret Thatcher required just 106, while Winston Churchill fought World War II with only 74.

'In total, 154 Labour MP's have some sort of government job, while 33 ministers are now entitled to attend Cabinet.

'Only a very naive observer would conclude that larger governments make good governments......'

Perhaps all these extra 'ministers' are helping to make Mr. Brown feel happier!

[Raj]

David, do us all a favour and join UKIP or Veritas (if it still exists anymore).

[Patsy Sergeant]

Sally, I think that 'Punch and Judy politics' and even a 'mature approach' could do with being more precisely defined! You could argue that David Cameron has been using a mature approach quite often, and he is completely knocked out by Brown's bruiser replies. Or how far along the road of 'rough tactics' constitutes 'Punch and Judy'.

Mr. Brown hasn't often been 'caught on the back foot', and, now, with a considerably enlarged team - see above - I would have thought somebody should perhaps check to see that he is not wearing an earpiece at the next PMQ's!!! Mind you one could imagine a great comedy piece based on A PM with an earpiece being fed answers......

[sally Roberts]

Point taken, Patsy! I think the mature approach is defined by looking at what the Government are doing - picking out anything that we think might contain a vestige of good for the country, saying "yes" to that and, if necessary, amending or adapting it! Negotiation too comes into this category - engaging in constructive discussion across the table.
Punch and Judy politics as I have already said is the politics of the "knockabout" - the heady cockpit atmosphere of PMQs where Government and Opposition face each other across the House - no quarter is given and points are simply made for effect and the chorus boos or cheers in the background! All good fun but at a time of what is - I think we all agree - National Crisis - not very helpful?

[Miranda]

"Go to Politicalbetting.com for a a more encouraging view of the Yougov poll."

But the point is that David Cameron and Co are not a very encouraging bunch to vote for at the moment. The biggest crisis we have faced, and they have seemingly flunked it. A majority of the public can see the problem - they are willing the Conservatives to stand up for them - and the result is zilch. Gooodness knows where I'll put my vote now? Emigration looks to be the only answer in the longer term.

[M Dowding]

I endorse the pb.com posters here about the more rational view of this poll. If I were Labour and their spinmeisters I would be decidedly nervous. Hague's trip as a guest of his wife's Company bosses is unfortunate but not as awful as Mandy's antics on luxury yachts cavorting with interested parties and Russian gangsters.

[MAPA]

10% "Slightly suspicious about this poll" (LOL)

1. It's a yu-guv (sic) poll the tories favourite

2. Since September more or less most polls showing labour haved moved-on from the 25-30 to the 30-35 hence. Yu-guv is one of the last to fall in line.

3. If the tories fall to 35-40 then it's game-on.18 months to go NO-Tory Landslide or maybe a 'john major' type victory with a few patton type casualties on the Labour side

Not a bad start for New-NU_Lab with Peter, Alistair & Draper back in the fold.

[M Dowding]

The recent polling in the marginals with the suggestion that the Tories are doing disproportionately better in seats they are trying to win means that the idea of a 10% comfort zone might be misplaced. We’ve also seen other polling that shows that the Lib Dems can get higher shares when voters are told about the specific circumstances in their seat.

Given the massive exposure and the general view that Brown has been performing to his strengths the outcome is not unexpected. In this context it is hard for the opposition parties to say anything that will merit more than the most minimal coverage.

There are the usual non-voting intention questions with poll showing that Brown-Darling lead Cameron-Osborne by 33% to 27% on who is trusted most to handle the crisis. But to other questions 53% of those interviewed thought that the government was “too slow in acting” and while only 29% thought Brown was handling things well, against 37% who thought think he was handling things badly.

As Anthony Wells of UK Polling Report notes when asked which team they think will improve their standard of living, people also continue to favour Cameron and Osborne over Brown and Darling by 34% to 25%.

YouGov also asked about Peter Mandelson’s return. According to the paper by 41% to 17% people said it was a bad move, with 50% saying they still link him to spin and sleaze.

Mike Smithson

MAPA, I want you by my side come General Election night. Most of the people of this country will be watching tv screens in shop windows, homeless and desperate to see the end of socialism and the dogma of hate you lot revel in!

[MAPA]

"end of socialism and the dogma of hate you lot revel in!"

actually I'm one of Mrs Thatchers groupies, hardly a socialist. votes Tory in locals, and never voted for Tony.

[ivan the yid from bradford]

Two obvious comments come to mind :

1. Various commenters complain that the Tories are losing the propaganda war and some have blaimed the media and referred to alleged bias. Not true. The BBC for example has always been biased but that bias has always been their and has not increased in recent days. In the current 'crisis' the media is always going to report the PM's and Chancellors utterances and the markets response to them rather than Opposition politicians. Remember both BBC and ITN showed an excellent graph of the 100 point dive in the FTSE when Darling made his 'do nothing' announcement in the HoP earlier this week. Brown is deliberately seeking fresh podiums for his pronouncements so as to maximise his media coverage. He stuck his nose in at a finance ministers meeting this weekend to get another photo-op and he was in Washington wanting to have a photo-op with H Paulson the other day. Paulson wasn't available (he was answering questions in Congress) so Brown took second best - a meeting with Bush. Cameron is not going to get much media coverage if his spiel is 'we will support the Govt in the present crisis'. Vince Cable gets load of coverage because instead of unqualified support for McStalin he makes well informed very clearly articulated comments on the proposed solutions and the run up to the crisis which he always points out was on Gordon's watch.

2. One question that these opinion polls never answer. How many seats North of the Border is McStalin going to lose to SNP ?

[Ken Stevens]

ivan
"Vince Cable gets load of coverage because instead of unqualified support for McStalin he makes well informed very clearly articulated comments "

Well, he would, wouldn't he --

Scotland on Sunday interview:
...grammar school in Yorkshire...
...natural science and economics at Cambridge...
...PhD in economics at Glasgow University.
treasury finance officer for the Kenyan government...
... joined Shell International in 1990 and became its chief economist in 1995...

i.e. the sort of background one might have expected a chancellor, or potential one, to have

[Patsy Sergeant]

Miranda @ 14.00 - '...they have seemingly flunked it...' I don't think that they have actually flunked it. What we DO have in this country is a seemingly hostile Media particularly terrestrial TV, so that if Cameron or Osborne actually DO get interviewed, the chances of them being given the chance - uninterrupted - to put forward ANY ideas about what to do in the current crisis are NIL quite frankly. Even Clegg got a rough time on the Politics Show this morning, (not that he had any sensible ideas), the nearest that the BBC would allow a Conservative representative to the public this morning on TV was David Davis, and I would bet quite some money that that was only because he is seen as the odd one out!

Sally, it would be encouraging if one could believe in the possibility of Brown engaging in 'negotiation and constructive discussion across a table' with Cameron and/or Osborne..... On the other hand he-Brown 'might' do it with a large number of his 33 ministers, that are entitled to attend Cabinet, to back him up! Otherwise, forget it! He will not tolerate any competition at all, and that is how he sees it. After ten years in Blair's shadow? No! And the more competent Cameron appears, the less likely he is to get within hand-touching distance of Brown.

[Philip]

I think David Cameron may need a change of tactics to become more robust in opposition to Labour's economic management.

A bi-partisan approach is statesmanlike and right where we can agree with the Government's response to the situation, but we could also highlight how Labour has made the situation worse than it need have been, by, for example, spending and borrowing to fund huge increases in spending (often on non-productive things the State shouldn’t get involved in?), using up too much of our reserves when times were better, running up a larger public sector debt worse than the 1970s. And give a truer picture of Labour’s economic record. But Mr Cameron would need the right timing and approach – he has shown he can perform as necessary at crucial times in the past (e.g. winning the leadership, and then at the 2007 conference by deflecting GB from holding an election.) . Am I right in recalling that we have been cited as one of the few nations likely to go into recession? If so, why?

Also, bailing out bankers with hard-pressed taxpayers’ money can’t be popular, surely? But guaranteeing savings must surely be right, but preferably without nationalisation? It has been said it will be hard work, and enterprise (unrestricted by unnecessary regulation, that will get the economy going again.

[christina Speight]

I am sorry to see so many here in denial about this poll. The trend in all the polls is unmistakable and trends being trends this will get worse unless something dramatic happens to reverse it.

If Cameron could show some guts for example and really go for Brown as the prime cause of the disaster and make it clear that all he;s doing is jumping to the EU's dictates (see this documented fully in EuReferendum blog today “They've known it all along!” http://eureferendum.blogspot.com/ )

But I don't think Cameron's heart is in it and he's out of his depth anyway. So I fear the worst.

[John D]

Good grief some people are fickle aren't they?
A 43% share and a 10 point lead and reading some of the posts here you'd think the Tories were in the 20's and 30 points behind.
This is the best news cylce Labour's had for a year... the Tories have been mostly out of the news... and we're still in Tory landslide territory!
As the financial crisis quietens down in the next few weeks (as I'm sure it will). and unemployment rises, recession is officially confirmed, the housing market continues to decline, people continue to have less to spend, and businesses fail, the government will lose support.
Just keep your hair on people.
And for the trolls out there... I'm happy to say that I belive David Cameron will be our next Prime Minister :)

[Raj]

If Cameron could show some guts for example and really go for Brown as the prime cause of the disaster

Except that he isn't. If Cameron tries that the polls will slide towards Labour, because the public is hearing about how's down to the bankers and the media won't change their story.

So it will be you versus the media. Who do you think the public will believe?

see this documented fully in EuReferendum blog today

Yes, the European iluminati are behind everything - including global warming and William Hague's loss of hair!

[Raj]

John D, yes ignore those trolls. We're being told that a 10% lead isn't enough - anyone with a brain would say it is!

[sally Roberts]

" So I fear the worst."

Nothing new there then, Christina! I don't know why you don't change your name to Cassandra!

[christina Speight]

Raj - From that last remark "We're being told that a 10% lead isn't enough - anyone with a brain would say it is!" , you need your head examined!!!

Unfortunately you don't know a thing about the weighting against the Tories! This 10% lead is forecast to give a tiny lead in seatsand with with a 1% shift from Tory to Labour now would produce a hung parliament. We'd then be dependent on what the LibDems and SNP thought. And the trend is running against us and Cameron doesn't do a damned thing about it, just agrees with Brown.

He's after the Deputy PM's job in the next Brown-led "National' government inheriting the PM's slot in due course - but not as a Tory.

The same criticism goes for John D "we're still in Tory landslide territory!" . We are NOT ! This is miles from a landslide. This is marginal territory and the trend us going against us because the public have not heard a word of argument against Brown for - most critically - letting control of credit slip out of his hands back in about 1999 and then building up massive deficits through overborrowing and letting the banks rip. The fact that we are worse off than any other nation is entirely Gordon Brown's fault - NOBODY else's.

[Patsy Sergeant]

I like it Sally!

[George Kaplan]

Whilst I agree that Punch and Judy politics would be a bad move, we do need to highlight just how bad a situation we are in thanks to Labour. Take for example:

1: Debt has skyrockted thanks to Labour. And the fact that they are now spinning the numbers to claim that they cut it only shows how crass and iresponsible Brown and Darling are.

2: The Bank of England, under Brown's instructions have got inflation all wrong and as a result, our money is not going far enough. Inflation is supposed to below 5% but the prices of essentials like bread, petrol and transport etc have all shot up by far more.

Although I agree with a previous poster that this is only temporary. As the crisis bites and the government's hugely expensive bailout fails, people will start to look differently at Brown. Let's face it, it's only human to hope that Brown succeeds - after all, if he fails (and unfortunately I'm 99% he will) then we are doomed to recession, bankrupt, with sky high taxes and no hope in sight.

Oh, and as an aside, me and my missus have been talking about emigrating for months, and if Labour were to come back then I'd have no choice to leave the rotting, socialist hell hole that we would become.

[sally Roberts]

Thank you Patsy!

Christina, I happen to agree with you on one thing - we are NOT in landslide territory at the moment - but the reason I feel is that the media is proving extremely tricky - we are either not getting coverage at all or there are a number of anti-Tory items being posted in various newspapers - notably the Mail. I think it is no coincidence that this all seems to have happened since the return of Mandelson. Together with his old chums Campbell and Draper he is once again practising the Dark Arts which helped NuLab before!

I hope that anyone who can do anything about this and help turn the tide is reading this - I really do...!!

[Winston C]

I think we are in landslide terroritry! What has really changed in tle last month? is the economy in recovery? are house prices stable?
is it now likely that recession will be avoided?

People should not be seduced by the media and the spin.This is not reality.Brown and Labour are done for.

[Raj]

This 10% lead is forecast to give a tiny lead in seatsand with with a 1% shift from Tory to Labour now would produce a hung parliament.

Drivel! First, look at the seat projection at the top of this blog entry. Second, marginal polls are showing the Tories doing even better there.

He's after the Deputy PM's job in the next Brown-led "National' government inheriting the PM's slot in due course - but not as a Tory.

Ok, now you really are exposed as a troll. He will never defect. The only people who have are those like Quentin Davis.

[christina Speight]

Raj a forecast 48 seat majority and FALLING is not a workable majority. Brown is riding up and will suggest a national government BEFORE the election. My belief is that Cameron 's Conservative beliefs are so wafer thin and he lacks guts too that he'll join and then they'll have a national government call an election which would almost certainly win. That way all the silly people who thought Cameron was the cat's whiskers would have been deceived and betrayed.

The rest of us would just have been betrayed.

[Edison Smith]

Conservative Party supporters have a neurotric take on opinion polls - especially when we are ahead.

We are used to being behind - that's our comfort zone, and it seems some would prefer that to be the case now. Plucky underdog et al.

People on here are doing a collective Corporal Jones and panicking because Labour have closed the gap.

Reality check: We are still 10% ahead despite one of Brown's best fortnights since taking over. Cameron is being a statesman in putting party politics aside. If he did not, the media would be out to get him, and no doubt some on this very site would be calling him a spiv and a chancer.

Cameron is playing the long game - May 2010. Opinion polls of the here and now just do not matter at all.

Acting by opinion poll is the stuff of Brown, not DC.

[sally Roberts]

"My belief is that Cameron 's Conservative beliefs are so wafer thin and he lacks guts too that he'll join and then they'll have a national government call an election which would almost certainly win. That way all the silly people who thought Cameron was the cat's whiskers would have been deceived and betrayed.

The rest of us would just have been betrayed."

No you'd be laughing your head off Christina because it would destroy the Conservative Party for ever!

But it is not going to happen so put it out of your head.

[christina Speight]

I wouldn't be laughing my head you silly Sally! I'm one of the minority of real Conservatives on this list. You to me are beyond belief!

Cameron is no Conservative - at best he's a Whig and worst he's a traitor. Right now he's betraying Conservatism to Brown

. Tell me one really Conservative thing he's done. All he's done is suck up to the Liberal element while eschewing anything that requires courage or guts.

I despair for my country because Cameron has been able to take the best of Britain and lead those 'best' down a path which leads to oblivion.

[John Moss]

These are the questions and answers in the You Gov poll. If it truly is, "the economy, stupid" then we should not concern ourselves and leave the Draper Dollies to trolling their "Cameron is doomed" lines.

From what you have seen, do you think Gordon Brown is handling the financial crisis well or badly? BADLY 37% to 29%

Gordon Brown was a successful Chancellor, and he has the experience needed to steer Britain’s economy through this crisis. DISAGREE 47% - 37% AGREE

Gordon Brown mismanaged Britain’s public finances when he was Chancellor, and he will use the crisis as an excuse for raising taxes. AGREE 49% - DISAGREE 34%

Do you think Gordon Brown is doing well or badly as prime minister? BADLY 65% - WELL 31%

Who would you trust more to raise you and your family’s standard of living? Cameron-Osborn 34% - Brown-Darling 25%

[Resident Leftie]

Tories were always admired for their loyalty, but really, what a bunch of chicken lickens you are. You are 10% ahead in the polls, and as a Labour supporter, I'm pretty sure the Tories will get an overall majority. If you really think otherwise, place a bet on Labour to win. You'll get pretty good odds. Cameron and Osborne can carry on being the useless, lightweight opportunists they so obviously are, and you'll still win.

[MAPA]

if and its a big if the polls start showing Nu_Lab into the 35-40 zone which after Brown's V-day in Europe today is possible Dave's in deep water.

politics aside with the US/EU following the UK-
'Rule Britania ...'
join in folks a good day to be British

[Jack Stone]

Ms Speight. You will be proved wrong of course. I seriously wonder if you live on the same planet the rest of us live on!!

[Vincent Wall]

Just heard Vince Cable on the World Service. Where is George Osborne? If this had been a political story he would be everywhere. His invisibility is testament to his economic illiteracy.

[Libertarian]

It is quite amazing that George Osborne appears to have retreated to a bunker and given Vince Cable an open goal. The Conservatives may be ahead in the polls but, given the government's ineptitude, they should have a massive lead. Even a Tory party led by Lord Snooty and his chums should be able to thrash this lot.....

[Ethan Hurlington]

'An end to Punch and Judy politics'

I am all for constructive criticism when it is merited...

BUT

Brown's government is partly responsible for the financial crisis, and as the official opposition, Cameron and co should be setting that out to the British people. It is not about being nasty, it is the reason for the opposition! Sure he might agree with the measures which Brown is trying to bring in...but for the entirety of new labour's time in power, we have had to hear them blab on and on about 'since 1997'... and when Cameron tried to be 'nice' and 'constructive' at last weeks PMQs, Brown accepted it with his creepy smile, and then had a dig at Cameron.

The British people are angry with Brown...Cameron and co need to reflect this. I don't really know about the value of the psychological tests for the shadow cabinet...maybe they are trying to contrast this to Brown's psychological flaws (ie our cabinet will have those who can deal with pressure and who won't crack...)... the one test I care about the shadow cabinet passing is, whether they can forcefully criticise Brown without somehow thinking it is just not cricket... it's what they are meant to do!

[Northern Tory]

All I can add is what I hear on the doorsteps of Wearside. Cameron has never been popular up here but we have really been making a move at the local level and stating a strong case...

With the economy worsening and jobs & houses at serious peril. I keep getting the same response, "those lot are loaded, won't effect them, just as bad as the other lot, what do they know about my life,... all millionaires!"

We are really suffering from the fact that we don't have a Major - someone who has risen from relatively humble means.......who the ordinary working man/woman of the electorate can identify with. There is a perception of our frontbench as chaps (mainly chaps) who were born with silver spoons in their mouths, who think politics is a jolly good jape and an ego trip.... people who have never felt life at the sharp end......

Miserable Broon is actually striking a chord, it is beyond belief!

[Raj]

Raj a forecast 48 seat majority and FALLING is not a workable majority.

It is currently a majority, whereas you implied there was none. Polls go up and down - last year you were behind by a large margin.

You obviously hate Cameron so even if he is elected you'll still despair. Go move to Monaco or something if you're worried about the probable lack of the upper-middle class tax cuts under a new Tory gov.

[christina Speight]

Raj - Do stop being silly. I didn't say that 48 was not a majority. I said it was a "skinny" one, and with all the nationalists around it wouldn't be workable. I also said that it would only need a 1% switch (C to Lab) to wipe it out.

I dislike Cameron because he's bogus, has no beliefs, is not a Conservative, is fickle and weak and I'm not the only person on this list who thinks that by a very long chalk.

The economic situation has gone so far now that what was essential in tax cuts a year ago is impossible now. Brown has wasted all the money - it's gone and nothing to show for it. Cameron can't seem to add up so hasn't noticed! He didn't want them anyway. He's so rich he doesn 't care.

Tax cuts when they come should concentrate on raising the threshhold at which people pay tax at all ! It verges on libellous to say I want them for the upper middle classes

Why should I go to Monaco? I'm not rich. This is my country and has been since as far back as I can trace it to 1582 - sheep farmers in the Lake District. Has it been your country that long? I don't like it being betrayed. Why do you?

[Winston C]

There are people who dislike DC and all his works.I myself voted for David Davis three years ago but some of the rubbish posted above defies belief.This is not about doing truly "Conservative things" in opposition this is about winning power and for me banishing Labour for all time.

To do this Cameron has shifted the Conservative party smartly onto the ground of the new labour consensus.We must recall that the electoral prognosis looked very different back in 2005.Back then we simply could not have known that a total meltdown of the banking system would occur.Yes we knew that debt was dangerously high but the electorate were not minded to throw their weight behind a tax cutting agenda.

This meant that Cameron and his team had to launch the attack on different ground.In essence the theme of the broken society has been a great insight.People have see the cost of Labour their desire to control and intefere in all areas of life.

This is to my mind traditionally Tory not whig or anything else.DC is rediscovering the power of the truly one nation conservatives.This is a pragmatic creed not driven by ideology.Yes we believe in lower taxes reduced borrowing etc but how will we sustain these ambitions without reducing the cost of the failed welfarism,social mobility in reverse and a bloated public sector sucking the life blood out of us all?

We are now engaing with and taking on the liberal social democratic view.We have come out forcefully for marriage argued strongly for the traditional tory view of the family and promised to take on the educational establishment and free our failing schools from the dead hand of LEA'S.

To my mind this is truly Conservative and it is popular.We are now relevant again and the contrast with new Labour in the battle of ideas could not be more stark.There is much talent within the conservative movement with Policy exchange,direct democracy and the CSJ leading the way.Where is the Brownite vision and talent? his recent exposure may have afforded him some respite but this will not last.

Those who are constantly critical of Cameron would be better served in putting their energy into planning for power.

[Simon Denis]

Politics IS punch and judy because it is about conflict. Oppositions which offer support to Governments should only do so from a position of strength. In a crisis of this kind, conservatism is on the defensive and the reaction should have been to come out fighting. Brown, Brown, Brown is to blame. Instead we had George Osborne's feeble, inexpressive accountant's voice bleating, "Labour's done it again." LOUDER, man! And again! And now some grisly details - the sold gold, the squandered taxes, the squashed interest rates, the profligate borrowing, the empty cupboard...

But no. So ill suited are Cameron and Osborne to a straight political fight that they continue to pursue the diplomatic path to power, shadowing the government and offering neither blame nor an alternative. Meanwhile the punters have all their suspicions of banks and their Tory employees daily confirmed by a lying government fairy tale. Brown, once the miserable Lurch has been striding around like a Colossus - Washington yesterday, Paris today.

For Cameron to try that trite old Blairite trick of stealing opponents' clothes at a time like this... Didn't he hear the hoots of derision from the gleeful left when he made his cowardly attack on bonuses? Who will believe him? If he were some Tory equivalent of Prescott - Eric Pickles, say or perhaps even David Davis - his denunciation of bankers might have carried some conviction. But his tweedy, reedy, nasal, upper class twang simply gives the lie to such pathetic, transparent positioning. Blair, recall, was visibly unlike the Labour trolls whom he carried into office. He could reach across to those on our side of the fence because he was - is - in fact a renegade bourgeois. The same condition does not apply to Cameron and it amazes me that he fails to recognise the fact.

The Tories have to recognise the changed conditions and fast. They have lost valuable time in pinning the blame where it belongs. They have been suckered into underpinning a once moribund Labour government and they haven't even had the nous to oppose the BBC's construction of recent events as the real end of Thatcherism. They should be describing the various rescue packages as one-offs and denying that they represent a genuine sea-change. On all fronts - the strategic and the tactical - they are losing their ground and all because they have lost the habit of fighting.

Most depressing is the conversion of Boris into yet another boring light-green.

[Joe James B]

I fear our policy isn't coming across as clear, and appears to be ducking hard truths.

If you have savings in a bank, put them in a Building Society if you want safety first, and a reasonable rate of interest.

However, as a policy line -
the compensation package of £50,000 is the right course to offer, and probably should look at increasing it for pensioners.

Reform the pension schemes so people are not tied to annuities, and are released from putting their money back into poorly performing stocks.

Slash form filling and business rates urgently aswell.

I think if the banks still don't stabilise they should be left to collapse. So the one thing left missing is to set up alternative emergency credit for businesses which are perfectly healthy but are dragged down by the bank.

After that, we should let the chips fall where they need to.

Banks should be left to stand on their own feet - or fail if necessary. Someone will take over what's worth keeping, and the other measures above deal with compensation.

The polls have narrowed because the government is somewhat refocused and there has been massive publicity to outside rather than home grown events. It is a mixture of the two, and we need a clearer line.

[Opinicus]

Would the Cameroons please say what Cameron or Osborne has said in the last ten days that would make me positively want to vote Conservative?

One quote would do.

[sally Roberts]

"I wouldn't be laughing my head you silly Sally! I'm one of the minority of real Conservatives on this list. You to me are beyond belief!"

You'd better believe it Madame Cassandra O Prophetess of Doom!

Look, David Cameron is a loyal Conservative - your prediction is simply batty! I do wonder what your problem is with David Cameron - did he ignore you at a Party event once or something?

[sally Roberts]

Jonathan:-

"David described it as his “democratic duty” to point out how “badly prepared” our economy is for a downturn and how “vulnerable” we have been left by this Government:

“Gordon Brown built an economy on a bubble of private and public debt and we are all now paying the price.”

He outlined our plans to prevent Britain from being so badly exposed in the future, including a new Debt Responsibility Mechanism and an independent Office of Budget Responsibility to ensure that the Government lives within its means.

And he stressed, “I am happy to support the Government when they do the right thing, but the British people need to know that there is a credible alternative to this failing Government.”"

David Cameron - 9th October 2008

[sally Roberts]

And here's another one, Jonathan:-

""When I hear Gordon Brown claim that all the problems we face 'came from America' and the expensive solutions devised around the world were 'made in Britain', it makes me wonder whether he is prepared to learn anything from his own mistakes."

George Osborne 13th October 2008

[Richard Woolley]

I do not think that Labour can win the next election, however I believe that the conservatives can still lose it with Cameron/Osbourne at the helm just as Kinnock and the late JSmith lost Labour the 1992 election despite a severe recession at the time. I mean lose the prospect of forming an overall majority. Really the Tories' response to the economic crisis has been pathetic. I thought conservatives believed in a balanced budget, giving taxpayers value for money and that industry should stand up on it's own two feet. Banks are a private industry like any other so why should they be given special treatment? HSBC is a well capitalised bank and hasn't requested help from the taxpayer so why should the taxpayer bail out failed banks? Conservatives really should be standing up for the interests of the taxpayer. Thatcherism RIP! Sadly we are all State Capitalists/Marxists now!

[Gezmond007]

Well ! well ! well !

All those die hard Cameron and Osbourne fans who have been saying that I don,t understand whats happening and people do not take my comments seriously because Dave and Georgie are doing such a good job !

I have been telling people for the last year that Cameron and Osbourne are lightweights with no substance or ideas.

Apart from the ones they are told to put forward by their PR team. Who,s dithering now Dave, where is I know it all Osbourne?

They are saying nothing because they have no idea what to do or say in this situation. No substance , lack of leadership , frightend to say anything that might upset their big money spivs who caused this crisis in the first place and who are bankrolling their so called Conservative revival.

The only Conservative speaking any sense at the moment is John Redwood , at least he has the courage of his convictions. Unlike the present pathetic leaders.

As I predicted in September and I take no pleasure in saying this, the lead of 20 points will have gone by Christmas . It was bound to happen , people like Cameron are always found out in the end.

[sally Roberts]

"where is I know it all Osbourne?"

Gezmond007 you clearly haven't been paying attention this morning!

Oh and if you are going to criticise George Osborne on a regular basis, please could you spell his name correctly?

Unless of course you are thinking of the Legendary Ozzy?!

[Gezmond007]

Sorry Sally, I am dyslexic , not very good at spelling.

I did hear Ossie the Osborne this morning , saying something at last but where has he been for the last few weeks and where is Cameron?

[sally Roberts]

"Sorry Sally, I am dyslexic , not very good at spelling."

Sorry Gezmond007! Obviously I didn't know and I do sympathise - I have dyscalculia which means I am rather the same when it comes to numbers!!

[Ken Stevens]

"I have dyscalculia which means I am rather the same when it comes to numbers!!"

Ah, Sally, so that's why you're so optimistically chirpy, despite these poll percentages and the general economic doom & gloom ;-)

[Votedave]

A poll lead of this scale would have been almost inconceivable between 1992 and 2007. And don't forget, the swings are likely to be bigger in the marginals.
It's quite clear to me that Gordon Brown is temporarily benefitting from all the publicity he has received, eclipsing what the Opposition says, no matter how constructive they have been. I would be more cautious than others in their tempation to press the panic button just yet.
Margaret Thatcher was struggling to keep her head above water in late 1977/1978 - and look what happened next...

[comstock]

A few thoughts from this Labour voter.....

"Few voters welcome the return of Peter Mandelson."

I don't blame them. Gord only knows why they let that prat back in.

Other than that, Brown seems to have done well in the last few days- a good leader in a crisis.

I welcome the return of Maggie Beckett to cabinet also.

There is still hope for the next election, it would seem :)

[MAPA]

"your rock of stability"

NU_Millbank at it again.

where's hilton & coulson still in a daze at Peter/Alistair/Draper's 'return'.

pardon my anology there like a separated couple engaged frenetic luv-making after been
torn apart for a long time and have just made up again. Soundbite after soundbite and the tories...?

It might not last long, but 18 months is enough to save NU_Lab.

Also to watch is the Next_Generation being put forward more into the frontline i.e. Yvette Cooper, Purnell etc

[Yet Another Anon]

A poll lead of this scale would have been almost inconceivable between 1992 and 2007
For the first 5 years of that period the Conservatives were in government and so had mid-term difficulties such as government had, the ERM crisis when it hit was not fatal to the government (really the statement about BSE in 1996 and the implimentation of The Railways Bill and floatation of Railtrack killed off the Conservative government's chances of winning a 5th successive General Election, governments can and have come back from a lot in the past, indeed in the late 1940s, at various times in the 1950s, early 1960s, late 1960s, early 1970s, 1980/81, 1986 and 1989/90 the government of the day was pretty much written off by the media and yet even if they lost they did so far more narrowly than expected, in 1951 Labour wasn't far off holding on and lost because of distribution of the vote, even before the Falklands War the "Labour lead" had evaporated.

In later 1990 before the leadership election there were already indications that Labour's "lead" was far shakier. In 1991 through to the General Election it was still assumed that the Conservatives couldn't win a majority at the General Election, and after the General Election during the Summer the talk was all about the Conservatives calling an early General Election to boost their majority because of how well they were doing in "the polls".

Opinion polls on voting intention give the media an easy topic to discuss, they sell newspapers, they are remarkably unreliable with regards to prediction of who might actually win the following General Election.