Tories still lead by 8% in YouGov poll

More in the Daily Mirror.  A ComRes survey yesterday showed the Tories 9% ahead.

Comments

[Passing through]

oooh, starting to look interesting.

[powellite]

Very interesting. Despite Brown's posturing as saviour of the world, thank goodness the public see through this pathetic charade.

[somerset rebel]

The encouraging thing for us Tories (as opposed to Dolly Draper's trolls) is that we are staying in the 40's. Nightmare on Clegg street however!

[Malcolm Dunn]

It would be interesting to hear from someone like Sean Fear on where he thinks we are.
My view? For what it's worth(which isn't much) is that now the internal pressure on Brown has receded, Labour have all their 'core' vote onside but pretty much nobody else.

[Letters From A Tory]

Notice that the Lib Dems are the ones shedding votes to Labour - the Conservatives are holding steady at around 40%, despite Brown enjoying some excellent publicity.

Clegg has been a massive let-down for this party and I think they are wising up to it.

[resident leftie]

This temporary poll blip will continue for a couple more months, I think, until the world recession starts to bite. Brown will be blamed for the local effects that recession.

[Gezmond007]

"Very interesting. Despite Brown's posturing as saviour of the world, thank goodness the public see through this pathetic charade"

Posted by: powellite | October 20, 2008 at 09:29"

Do you mean the charade that was supported by Daveboy Cameron ? which is being hailed worldwide as a great idea .

Get your heads out of the sand. From a twenty point lead to 8% in a matter of weeks and it,s encouraging and ok !
It,s a disaster,Cameron and especially Osborne have failed miserably to deal with this. They said nothing for two weeks and then agreed with the government that it,s the right thing to do.

Get rid of Osborne now and bring in the only Tory at present who has the guts to stand up and say what they think, John Redwood.

[david]

Labour are now almost back to where they were at the last GE. A no overall majority situation, is becoming a likely outcome.

[Joe James B]

Our economic narrative needs to be sharpened up - but hopefully we already knew that.
After everything that's been thrown at us in the last four weeks, it shows it's pretty reslient above 40%.

Looks like the Lib Dems are being squeezed as the electorate seems to be settling around those who want to change the government, and those who are clinging to it as the available doctor.

[luke]

Labour only got 36% in 2005 general. So its total nonesense to describe this as a return to "their base"

[Northern Tory]

Cameron needs to be thundering into Brown. He is quoted as saying that "he is going to pin the tail on the donkey"...In the last week the stubborn "old ass" has kicked Davey boy in the chops...

We need to keep up the offensive and get some of our points to stick. Brown was at the wheel when this disaster was brewing..He should be out of sight in the polls not creeping bcak into the race...

[The Bishop Swine]

At least it is no longer a one horse race. This set of polls show exactly how volatile politics has become. I suppose the trend of swing is now towards Labour. Over the next 18 months I expect the Labour administration to pour excessive amounts of “new” money into the economy. If this kind of Keynesian economics worries you as much as me, you will be aware of the very real dangers that these irresponsible policies could have. Of course Labour will not be as concerned with good governance; as keeping the public on their side. Expect a difficult season of politics as Labour whip up the fear of a return of Margaret Thatcher style cuts, and quite right to. Sometimes the trurth hurts.
Of course the fact that the only difference between Kaynes and Reganomics was the group that took out the loans. In the latter case it was the public as well as the governments who borrowed from tomorrow to fund today.
Now of course the public is overspent and worse in many case’s is sat on real estate which is unlikely to return to its recent perceived value for many years to come. In the short term a big injection of funds will have a positive effect maybe even shortening the coming recession. However as the economy recovers and the money that is currently out of the markets is returned as the super rich buy up the bargins (wish I had a few millions right now BTW) the inevitable result of all of this money sloshing around will be higher inflation. To cope with this the central banks will have to raise interest rates, which will have a disastrous effect on those who have mortgages far greater than the value of their property. It is going to be difficult to resist the temptation to agree with many of the Governments policies indeed it is difficult to see how we can avoid any course but to inflate our way out of the markets problems. Of course we should have let the banks implode and taken the evitable depression on the chin. That would have been very painful but in the end we would have had a far stronger economy. As it is the systemic problems have not been dealt with at all by this blatant use of freshly printed monies.In reality we may simple have put off a crash now, for a much more devastating crash later. In the meantime don’t be surprised if Labour doesn’t manage to convince the public that their answers are the only way forward. One thing that we have to understand,is that during the last year a great deal of Labours weakness in the polls has been down to a reluctance of its left wing to support what has been considered a very disappointing administration, having hoped for far more from Brown. The partial nationalization of the banks has reversed this with the left positively encouraged. Don’t expect a quick return to a double digit lead as without a doubt our economic policies are not well formed enough to convince the average housewife right now, let alone a increasingly well educated population

[rugfish]

Constantly reminding people of the obvious and what they know already won't win points, he needs to demonstrate an active concern along with a plan which puts clear blue water between the parties.

Brown's "help" is aimed at assisting banks and demanding they assist businesses and mortgage holders. This is not ACTION it is a PLEA for HELP !!

The reigns need to be taken to STEER OUR ECONOMY...e.g. Actually taking government action and intervening in the economy with CHANGE which will deliver more into people's pockets and more into business.

Standing on the sidelines shouting foul will lose the chance of government AGAIN !!

[bloggingharry]

I think that it is hysterical that there are a couple of comments on here which are full of doom and gloom. 8% is down on the VERY soft 20% poll lead of late summer - anyone on these boards who honestly thought a 20% lead was sustainable, need their heads examined.

DC and GO do need to step their game up, but you forget that next year, when the economy starts to slip for the majority of people, the Government will have their b*lls in a vice and not know which way to turn for maximum relief.

DC and GO are still good for a win although complacency is a danger - but please stop thinking that "Brown's bounce" is sustainable. Haven't you learned anything where bounce's / booms are concerned esp. where Nu-Lab are concerned? They are always followed by a bust and this latest poll isn't the Tory party going bust...this is a minor market correction in unnaturally high Tory asset values. Brown's assets are in a terminal decline over the long haul...

[christina Speight]

Cameron has been completely outflanked by Brown. He never made it clear at the conference that his support for Brown's plan was conditional on agreeing with when he'd seen it! Consequently the public got the message that Cameron agrees with Brown so we, the voters, too had better agree to vote for him, Cameron is struggling toi get away from that now.

His drip feed of policies look like tinkedring especially the crazy proposal ti delay VAT for 6 months for SMEs. A great idea except he cannot do it!

Cameron’s general proposals are overshadowed by a big ‘elephant-in-the-room ‘ the EU. I wish Cameron would stop doing this because it shows his ignorance of the rules by which he will HAVE TO play. It's about time he learned this or Labour will soon [if they haven't already] start using this against him and saying that he's not ready for government.

He keeps doing this - proposing things which, while very sensible in themselves, cannot be done because they are against EU law.

VAT is an EU tax and the rules for collection and payment are precisely laid down in the appropriate directive or regulation.

There is very little of politics that is open to the untrammeled decisions of British Ministers.

To get a 'derogation' from the VAT rules would need the unanimous approval of all 27 countries (and even then any change is at the discretion of the Commission)

[Stewart]

Does no one else think it's time for the Electoral Commission to look at boundary issues? An 8 point lead producing a 6 seat majority for us. If the situation were reversed, that would be a Labour majority of 128. That's ridiculous.

[Bexie]

I have had a couple of U gov polls to return this weekend, so it will be interesting to see the results of the others.

Brown is up because he has had solid media coverage for 3 weeks, and the tories have been practically invisible. They really need to give their media department a kicking on this one.

Having said this, I had a coffee with an economist recently and he reckoned that Brown/ Darling have little or no wriggle room on tax. Receipts are already down, and his officials will be telling him that further hikes will only reduce them more. The guess is that he will starve local authorities which will push up council tax. Not a good time to be a councilor really when they are likely to meet people in the street that have been evicted for non payment...

[RichardJ]

"It,s a disaster,Cameron and especially Osborne have failed miserably to deal with this."

Yes, an utter disaster that our polling figures remain in the 40s and Labour are getting support from former Lib Dem supporters. What do you suggest we do, start campaigning on behalf of the Lib Dems? Methinks your IP has "Labour HQ" written all over it.

[rugfish]

Of course it's ridiculous when there ends up a difference at the last GE of some 800,000 votes and just over 2% yet Labour get a 60 odd seat majority and run the country to wrack and ruin on the back of the lowest voting percentage of any previous government whilst ignoring electoral fraud and still saying they "won".

But opposition is just as ridiculous and so is the media and so are the people for putting up with it.

[Gezmond007]

Dear Richard , I have nothing to do with "Labour HQ" . I thought that we were going to stop this having a go at people who had different opinions.

I just think that Cameron and Osborne have been very poor in dealing with this crisis and John Redwood has a lot more experience and should be brought back.

[Edison Smith]

That 40%+ for the Tories is looking very solid now.

That means Brown is toast.

[Edison Smith]

UPDATE 1230: The Mirror poll was an old poll. It's now clear that the fieldwork by YouGov took place from Wednesday to Friday - so was a day earlier than BPIX. Given that most of the responses come in within the first couple of days then it would have been affected very little by the Cameron speech on Friday. The latter would have had a much greater impact on BPIX. The Tories always poll much better when their leader is in the headlines.]

[Gezmond007]

Edison , clutching at straws ! Camerons speech got very little coverage . Don't think it would have made any difference.

[Votedave]

We're still doing better than we were at this stage of the 1974-9 Parliament.

[Londoner]

Well, we are down - but not by too much.

And we are still leading - but not really by enough for comfort.

It won't directly affect the Polls but I caught part of David Cameron on the economy on the Today Prog this morning and he seemed to be saying the right things.

But the current economic ruptions will make eerything fairly inpredictable for a while. Either way, it's not 1914. It won't be all over by Christmas.

[Martin Cole]

As I commented to the IDS article in the DT today (copied on TT) it is time for true Conservatives to begin to distance themselves from the Howard/Osborne/Cameron disaster which will eventually be shown for what it was.

For a thinking Conservative such as John Redwood to now nail his colours to the sinking Commodore Cameron Flagship's mast would be folly indeed.

As the economic disaster long foretold on my blogs unfolds, it will be the absence of earlier opposition that finally forces a change of leadership, the longer the delay the less the chance of ever removing New Labour.

Christina Speight's point on the EU is well made!

Will Cameron still be doing OK on this forum when he is once again level-pegging with Brown?

[Lady in a dressing gown]

If John Redwood is keen to help, he needs to do so behind the scenes; he is NOT an asset in this televisual political age.

[Votedave]

"Will Cameron still be doing OK on this forum when he is once again level-pegging with Brown?"

Make that "when" an "if".
Margaret Thatcher was often outpolled by Jim Callaghan. She still won.

[ChrisD]

"As I commented to the IDS article in the DT today (copied on TT) it is time for true Conservatives to begin to distance themselves from the Howard/Osborne/Cameron disaster which will eventually be shown for what it was."

The highly regarded Mike Smithson of PB.com had this to say about Osborne on an earlier thread today.
"re 233. You are so seriously wrong on Osborne. Underestimate him at your peril. He is by far the sharpest political strategist in UK today and his ability to put forward policy proposals in a clear simple form that worries the hell out of Labour is testament to his expertise. Look at the IHT move last year or the council tax this year. Look at the way he made Brown’s character an issue.

He is so much the designer of the Cameron project that he can have any job he wants and I know that is the one that Labour strategists most fear.
by Mike Smithson October 20th, 2008 at 2:00 pm"

And the latest thread is asking Will Cameron get a speech poll boost?

[anon]

"And we are still leading - but not really by enough for comfort"

Hopefully this will wake up any complacent PPCs and make them realise that victory is not necessarily assured and that perhaps they need to apply themselves a little more.

Does CCHQ keep an eye on PPCs work rate and effectiveness?? How is it measured??

[Louise Stanley]

Even in this media-driven age we still need intelligent policy and policy-makers. Barack Obama has the full weight of the Clintons on board when he needs it most, despite them at one point being derided as "divisive". Perhaps were we to have some of our big-hitters back, because we cannot rely on the media asking tough questions and being given the same old nonsense in return.

[Sean Fear]

12% up according to ICM

[M Dowding]

YouGov founder and senior board member, Peter Kellner did not influence the latest poll just released by The Guardian showing a 12% LEAD for the Conservatives and a 21% score for LibDums. My dream of a strong Tory majority and Liebour in third place remains!!!!!!!!!

[eugene]

My hope is that Labour's recovery (and there is one, no doubt) is down to 'crisis'. Ted Heath initially surged in the polls following the crisis (3 day working week, lack of electricity)of 1974....given time however, the electorate return to logic. It is illogical that Labour is doing well when every virtue they have claimed lies in ruins.

PS-'Lies'...it is an accidental pun.I feel the Conservatives have failed in letting them get away with it.

[Louise Stanley]

Without the coherent policies of the 1974-79 leadership the electorate will not even give us 30%, let alone 40%. Man cannot live on spin alone.

And yes, I'm a Conservative Party member - I can get John Redwood to vouch for that if you like, having worked on his campaign in Wokingham last time round. So please don't pretend that the only malcontents are Labour trolls in disguise.