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Posted in general thread:

Telegraph is showing it as a big Labour boost, but only because they are comparing it with one from over a month ago. Compare it to the last YouGov (as ConHome has), and Labour have actually gone down a point. It's all margin of error stuff, but again it doesn't look like Brown is getting as many plaudits as the press would have you believe.

Interestingly, Cameron and Osborne are now back ahead on trust with the economy, though Labour have a one point lead for the 'current crisis' question.

Good, we're still in the 40s. Question is, how do we knock Labour back to the mid-20s?


"The Conservative advantage has plunged from 24 points to nine points over five months, with the Prime Minister seemingly prospering from his handling of the financial crisis.

The YouGov poll for the Daily Telegraph also indicates that David Cameron's party may have suffered from the "Yachtgate" storm which engulfed George Osborne.

The research is the latest to put the difference between the Tories and Labour in single figures - suggesting the next general election could be very tight.

It found Labour was more trusted to look after the interests of "ordinary people" during the economic crisis by a margin of 33% to 28%."

Time to change the Shadow Chancellor!

Libertarian, the poll actually says that Mandelson has come out of the yacht thing looking worse - 63 to 56. Considering the ridiculous press coverage of Osborne, I find that incredible and indicative that the Osborne number is probably softer than the Mandelson one.

The polls in this modern era of tax payer funded spin and deceipt are as trustworthy as Liebour figures on crime, inflation, debt, education, tax, Brown brilliance and so on. Anyone who believes that they are not manipulated and doctored to give the best light on this corrupt bunch of charlatans, is frankly deluded. Just check out Peter Kellner's allegiances and his wife's new job. That they still give the Conservatives such a boost in certain ares shows the depth of the real meanings. This Government and PM are hated by the electorate and they know it. Still they believe their lies can do the job of getting them re-elected. Delusion may be added to their many idiotic traits. The same delusion that led them to think the bank bail-out would help consumers get to borrow more and turn the wrecked economy round. No one explained that consumers are broke and money lenders can only lend thse days to the very few people with an outside chance of paying some of the loan back. Now who might that be? Are, yes, Governments!!!!!
Drippy Darling has already warned of tax rises in the future.That is to say tax stealing. Means tested state pension and child allowance for starters?

David (one of many), are you happy with the 7 to 8 % swing from Conservative to Labour in the last five months?

This is what the Telegraph says

"Last month, before the financial crisis escalated, the lead was 20 points. That was reduced to 14 points earlier this month in the immediate aftermath of the party conference season and is now down to nine."

That's a five per cent swing in one month!! At this rate, the Tory lead will disappear within a few weeks.

Do you want Boy George to stay on as Shadow Chancellor? Is he up to the job?

These polling numbers are not awful given the large amount of airtime given to Gordon Brown and Alisdair Darling over the past few weeks.

The Conservatives need to articulate a coherent economic policy, people are understandably worried and we need to address that. I would suggest a sort of summit meeting over the weekend where David Cameron, George Osborne, Phillip Hammond, John Redwood, Ken Clarke, Nigel Lawson and anyone else who might have something useful to say are locked in a room and not let out until then have an economic strategy that they can stick to. Sharing the proceeds of growth is fine when the economy is on the up, we are in a recession now and we need a new policy.

We are not losing yet but we are starting to fall back, we need to regain the initiative.

M Dowding, Yougov's track record is second to none. It got both the 2005 general and 2008 Mayoral results spot on. The appointment of Mrs Kellner (aka Baroness Ashton) as an EU Commissioner is irrelevant.

Are you aware that Stephan Shakespeare, this site's financier, founded Yougov? That should make you think twice before using the despicable "shoot the messenger" smear!

No Yougov, No ConHome!!

Attack, attack, attack. Labour's record is ghastly and has to be paraded as such for all to see and hear.

And time for Redwood's thinking on economics.

"... are you happy with the 7 to 8 % swing from Conservative to Labour in the last five months?"

But that's not we have. The Tory vote, with the exception of one poll, has stayed in the 40s; usually somewhere between 41-44. This is down from 45-47 territory. Labour have gone from 23-25 to 30-33. It's not so much a swing as it is a shoring up of Labour votes. And the trend of the last several weeks indicates the polls consolidating themselves and even the Labour vote going backwards, not a continuing decline of the Tory vote.

Would I like the Tories back into the mid/high 40s? Yes. Would I like Labour back in the 20s? Yes. But the way to do that is not to fire members of the Shadow Cabinet because of nonsense press stories and Labour spin about 'experience'. I really do question your logic in giving in and playing to Labour's tune.

YouGov are a good pollster. We need to inwardly digest and move forward.

My point about polling is not what takes place to gather the numbers but what is done to interpret and publish the data. Pollsters are not messengers but private companies out to make money. Newspapers likewise. YouGov's record is good when predicting an imminent real election and real votes. I say for the hundreth time polls are given greater weight than real elections, by the MSM. The Glasgow East, Crew and other recent disaters for Liebour were not trailed by the BBC or many other "pundits". Check out the pb.com latest criticism of The BBC polling habits to support my argument. YouGov seeks to be given the "best" pollster rating because it's good for business. Doesn't stop leading interpretation though.


Kellner is a senior player in the Liebour Party hierarchy. Seems likely he can trail results to his friends and give them time to place the best possible spin they can. His wife's elevation to The EU gravy train will add a nice little fricasee to the Kellner income and pension fund. We poor peasants just do not know a fraction of what goes on other than it's not for our benefit.
Still at this stage of the Country's financial meltdown, 9 points ahead is easily capable of becoming 20+ sooner than they think. It is also a one point gain over the most recent ComRes effort!

Whoops, "Crewe and disasters." Must learn to type!

David, I am not playing Labour's tune. As a professional marketing executive who specialises in research and forecasting, I place a lot of emphasis on polling and focus groups.

The fact is that, to use industry jargon, there has been a notional swing of around 7% from Con to Lab. The key issue is the difference between the Labour and Conservative figures.

The Conservatives owe their poll lead to the lamentable Lib Dem performance. If the Lib Dems recover to around 20% or just above (mostly at the Conservatives' expense), Cameron's lead is almost wiped out.

Labour is recovering in the polls when the economy is in deep trouble. A competent Opposition ought to be thrashing Brown and Darling. Instead, the key swing voters have major doubts about the Cameron's and Osborne's economic ability.

There will be a lot of Brown trousers in Millbank over the coming weeks.

The Lib Dems, who spent about 9 years calling for higher taxes than Labour, are unlikely to increase their support when the country is grouping mainly aroud those who want to change the government, versus those who are clinging to it as the available doctor in the hope they know how what to do with the economy.

The Tory lead was 26% under YouGov at the end of May - the national party should take some of the credit for that.

The Conservatives economic narrative has come under pressure in recent weeks, needs sharpening up, and explaining.

It gives the impression, at times, of being unco-ordinated. We do need at least some tax cuts to regenerate the private sector, whilst the beaurocracy of the public sector should take a bigger cut than previously envisaged.

It's a marathon, not a sprint!

Above 40 is still there or thereabouts

"...as with ComRes earlier this week this is a “no change” poll. "
UK Polling Report


"The fact is that, to use industry jargon, there has been a notional swing of around 7% from Con to Lab. The key issue is the difference between the Labour and Conservative figures."

I don't see where you get this from. This poll has Conservatives @ 42%. Since the 2005 election, the highest YouGov have had them at is 47%.

"The Conservatives owe their poll lead to the lamentable Lib Dem performance. If the Lib Dems recover to around 20% or just above (mostly at the Conservatives' expense), Cameron's lead is almost wiped out."

Again, I don't see where this comes from. The Telegraph/YouGov poll of Sept 2008 had Conservatives 44 : LibDem 20. The Guardian/ICM poll June 2008 had Conservatives 45 : LibDem 20.

It may well be that the LD's will get 20% at the next general election, but it does not follow that this will be at the expense of the Conservatives. Nick Clegg has specifically stated they'll be targeting Labour seats.

Six weeks ago, the position was around 46-26-17. It's now about 43-31-15. That's a C to Lab swing of 4%.

Note also that the polling position's been stable for the last couple of weeks - and it's stable in a position that still leads to a Tory overall majority.

And remember that Cameron will trounce Brown in the campaign.

Terrible results for cameron and Osborne , I predicted that the Tory lead would disappear by Xmas and it looks as if I am going to be right . Cameron and his weak leadership is responsible for this . He should have got rid of cameron , like he should have got rid of spellman but didn't have the guts to do so .

He has no answers to put forward to deal with the present crisis all he does is hang on browns coatails! I also predict. That labour will win the glenross by -election which one month ago they wouldn't have .

The Tories are nowhere in Scotland and nosediving everywhere else and people on this thread still will not accept the reality of the present situation .
Wake up we need to change and soon or the game is up , cameron has been found out and osborne must go now !

Should have said cameron should have got rid of Osborne ( first paragraph ) sorry !

Anthony King's analysis of the poll is now live the Telegraph's website. He's not trying to put a pro-Labour spin on the numbers the way Mr Porter seems to be.

The Telegraph has an anti-Cameron narrative, like most of the press, it's hardly surprising to see another poll supporting the editorial narrative.

It seems to be convenient that some recent polls, (like the ICM Guardian poll after the Labour conference) also gave the Tories a nine point lead. Therefore, I suspect the brief to the pollsters may have been, "get the Tory lead down to single figures" and hey presto! 9% it is.

And don't start going on about Youguv being the Tories favourite pollsters, because the Evening Standard used them in the Mayoral election, they get paid by the organisation commissioning the poll, not the Conservative Party.

The Conservative lead is at least double this. Governments to not get more popular by bankrupting the country. However much bullshit is spun by the BBC.

Labour might have regained some support in their heartlands, but everywhere else, there are doomed.

After initially glancing at what the Daily Telegraph inaccurately said, I was fearing something much worse.
I have to say the media have given Gordon Brown a very easy ride since his conference speech, as they did in summer 2007. For example, even last week when David Cameron publicly took up the Ross/Brand incident with the BBC, all the headlines seemed to be "Brown condemns TV prank" etc.
However, as I have said before, I am quite confident our lead will rise substantially by the end of the year. This poll is encouraging and 2008 has actually been the most vintage year for us in terms of polling for a very long time indeed.

Good, we're still in the 40s. Question is, how do we knock Labour back to the mid-20s?

I don't think there's a lot you can do to get them down that low - we're talking bigger majorities than Blair got in 1997 (when the economy was so much better and there wasn't fear of "inexperience"). However, it might be possible to get them back under 30% again providing the pressure stays on.

The problem is that this is being sold as a Tory decline over the last 5-6 weeks. It's nothing of the sort. The Tory lead was c 20% up to the Labour conference. At that point, the media narrative on the Labour party was about splits, leadership challenges etc. Labour had a relatively good conference (compared with what had gone before), the media eulogised Brown's speech for some reason, and that was followed by an economic crisis that overshadowed the Tory conference and showed Gordon to be "doing something". Over the last few weeks the Tory lead has settled into an 8-16% lead.

So it's not a decline, it was a fall-off due to events which has now stabilised. Hopefully the Tories can now push the "Gordon caused the economic crisis" and restore the lead.

The fact that the lead seems to be persisting even though Labour has undoubtedly stiffened its resolve through re-recruiting Mandelson, Campbell et al is hopeful, as is the fact that however foolish Osborne's actions are seen by the voting public, the actions of a serving EU Commissioner are seen as potentially worse. Even though the media narrative has concentrated on Osborne.

It always happens that people cheer the good news and try to pretend all is well when things go the other way.

You can read what you like into these polls, but it is no use pretending the current trend is good for the Tories. Yes, Mandelson is worse than Osborne (my opinion of his Lordship is not fit to print) but Osborne`s recent stupid behaviour has been a disaster for the party, and by backing him Mr. Cameron has shown a similar lack of judgment. He was quick enough to sack some others who dared to contradict him: the old pals act seems to be working here.

The opposition doesn`t seem to know what to do or say about the economic crisis, and they are still wishy-washy about climate change and the EU. No wonder many people still see little difference between New Labour and Blue Labour.

It`s not looking good for the Conservatives.

George Osborne is,I`m afraid a boy trying to do a man`s job. Labour have one in Ed Miliband, but that`s their problem.

Actually it is not just Osbourne's inability to hit home. Look at the con home survey and you see a list of non entities on the front bench who have materially failed to get their name in the press let alone make a hit on labour.

With illiterate, innumerate degree holders, squadies buying their own kit, the FSA showing themselves to be like a rabbit in headlights, feral kids running wild in town centres, plod sitting on the motorway with the speed camera's rather than nicking perps, revolving door courts, third generation unemployed single mothers, gun battles in edmonton and standing room only to do a journey into central London slower than in a car during the rush hour there should be enough material to be hauling ZanuLab over the coals every single day.

Where are our front bench team?

Convenient Poll (CCHQ troll?) wrote "It seems to be convenient that some recent polls, (like the ICM Guardian poll after the Labour conference) also gave the Tories a nine point lead. Therefore, I suspect the brief to the pollsters may have been, "get the Tory lead down to single figures" and hey presto! 9% it is."

What a ridiculous smear. Yougov has its reputation, as a member of the British Polling Council, to maintain. It is significant that the top two pollsters, with different methodologies, give the Conservatives a reduced lead of 9%.

It is typical of the Cameroons to applaud pollsters when they give the Tories huge leads but to smear them when the polls slump. When in trouble, they blame everyone but themselves - Blue Liebour indeed!

Dave B needs to under stand the definition of notional swing. It is more complicated than simply calculating the decline in the Tory share.

The Tory lead actually shrunk between about mid 1977 until summer 1978 and disappeared.
Past experience obviously doesn't get replicated, but I suspect the Tory lead has shrunk because the party has been very quiet (except for one bad reason) over the recent banking crisis.

If the economic critique is sharpened up, and clarified, there's a good chance of re-establishing those 45+ figures, as, an intense recession sets in.

"And remember that Cameron will trounce Brown in the campaign."

He's not doing much to trounce Brown at the moment, where do you get this from? Any campaign will be about the issues, not dependent on spin. And if the Tories don't get those sorted soon then this will get less, rather than better.

I agree with Libertarian, the Tories should be thinking about this. As for the idea of a summit, it probably won't happen as Dave and co aren't that big on big tents. What happened to the "council of elders" Michael Howard set up?

Tory poll lead has actually grown by 1%.

14% down to 9%? How's that, Ed?

when the economy was so much better and there wasn't fear of "inexperience"
Going into the 1997 the Labour frontbench only had 4 Shadow Ministers who had any experience of governmnent - Jack Cunningham, Gavin Strang, Michael Meacher and Margarett Beckett and none of them had even been at Minister of State level.

@Louise 13:14
The last YouGov poll (for the Mirror) was Con 42, Lab 34, LD 14. So this YouGov poll increases the Tory lead according to YouGov.

@Dave B - thanks, I stand corrected. 8% to 9%; however comparisons with the 14% lead a month ago still stand when you look at trends from month to month. The Independent poll earlier this week was also only 8% so we are looking at an average of 8.5% this week, still not good enough at current output to actually stand up to scrutiny at an election.

I am preparing another post for my blog and it seems the Tories still have a way to go to reverse the single figures trend.

Bob Worcester founder of MORI said of polls:

"Watch the share, not the lead; the lead is a very crude measure of the state of public opinion, and like most shorthand, gives a clue but doesn’t tell the whole story."

The Conservatives share, 42% seems quite consistent, "in spite of all that’s been happening Labour has found it all but impossible to get Cameron’s party out of the 40s since Darling’s budget and the 10p tax band catastrophe last March".

Dave - watch the majority go down to 22.

I'm not sure I agree, unfortunately.


I just don't see it the same way.

Labour 'won' the 2005 election with 36%, on a low turnout. They're not a popular government, and they haven't been for a long time.

To my eyes, the most significant thing about Labour's three general election victories is the astonishly low turnout.

I think the next general election, be it 2009 or 2010 is going to see turnout back to 70-80%. I think there's a big constituency in the UK that vote Conservative, or abstain.

In 2001 & 2005 I think those people saw the parliamentary Conservative Party as a shambles; I think they see Cameron & Co as sane, pragmatic, conservative, and the change they've been waiting for.

I think the Conservatives are going to win the next election, and win big; and these little fluctuations in the polls are just ripples, signifying nothing.

Fabulous stupendous news. Well done Lib dems!!! Very excriting 15%

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