ICM poll in 192 marginals predicts Conservative majority of 78

Tomorrow's News of the World reports on its poll by ICM showing Labour will lose 164 seats at the next General Election on an 11.5% swing to the Conservatives. Only twice since 1945 - 1979 and 1997 - has the swing at a General Election exceeded 5%, and in neither was the swing as high.

Intriguingly, the same poll shows a lead for Brown of 43% to 35% on dealing with the credit crunch - but on all other issues, particularly taxation, the NHS, education and immigration, Cameron is in the lead.

Asked who would be the best Prime Minister, 50% said David Cameron and 35% said Gordon Brown. 15% chose Nick Clegg.

The poll also showed strong backing for tax cuts and opposition to tax rises. 78% support a freeze in council tax (17% were against) and 51% supported cutting public spending by £20 billion to allow a reduction in income tax of between 4p and 6p (39% were opposed).

The News of the World has released the full polling data on its web site.

Comments

[Sally Roberts]

This is good news - and far more realistic than some of the extraordinarily huge polls leads we've had recently. I suspect the true result when the Election comes will look very like this!

[Malcolm Dunn]

That'll do nicely! Murdoch support for Cameron becomes ever more likely I think.
V. suprised to see that those polled seem to have swallowed the Clegg line on tax cuts.I suppose Clegg's refusal to detail where the cuts will fall make it more palatable to voters. And since when did a £20bn spending cut equal a 6p tax cut?

[Sally Roberts]

" suppose Clegg's refusal to detail where the cuts will fall make it more palatable to voters. And since when did a £20bn spending cut equal a 6p tax cut?"

Puzzling! Cue our friend Gloy Plopwell to explain perhaps? I am sure he will manage to make it sound stupendously "excriting"!!

[Robert McIlveen]

I wonder if Brown is ahead on the credit crunch because think it might be over by the time we are in government so they are discounting us on that issue, whereas ongoing issues have us in front.

[Peter Buss]

This is a welcome surprise as the Tory Conference was more or less blown off the front pages and so it would not have surprised me if our poll lead had diminished. I see Cameron is way out in front of Brown as best PM. As per usual BBC pundits are misinterpreting the poll as the voters want Bropwn to stay and then to ditch him at the election. I ead the data as voters saying that they prefer Brown to any alternative LABOUR candidate but if there were an election tomorow then they want Cameron in - thats a very different take on how the BBC are reporting it. Sky have reported it as voters wanting Bown to lead us through the crisis and then ungratefully ditch him in an election!!

[Chris]

Sally Roberts,
This poll only covered seats currently held by Labour. If it had included Tory bastions then our lead would have been greater (A point worth knowing for those inclined to use seat calculators as the results produced from them using this poll would be totally bogus!)

All in all a good poll, and a confidence inspiring boost for all of the hardworking PPCs out there.

[Sally Roberts]

Thank you Chris - even better news then!

[christina Speight]

This poll does not account for the probable loss of Labour seats to the SNP in Scotland nor any LibDem losses to the Tories or gains from Labour

Chris, you are wrong in that seat calculator systems take account of all these things.

None of these polls can be related to the election when it comes - they're valuable for trends burt not for results. The only predictions worth relying on are when the election campaign itself starts.

[Chris]

Christina,
You are of course right that only the poll on the day counts, however seat calculators can prove a useful indicator despite their failing to take account of local conditions. My point was that to use a marginal seats popular vote poll as input for a seat calculator would produce bogus results based on that calculators methodology as it doesn't take into the account of voters in non-marginal seats.

[M Dowding]

Alistair Cambell and Mendacious Mandy have been resurrected to combat these valuable gains. They will stop at nothing nor stoop to low to defeat the desire of the electorate. Be careful out there!

[M Dowding]

What on earth happened top my post? One second ther and then gone? WTF?

[M Dowding]

Sorry, too much wine!

[christina Speight]

Chris - I didn't say that! Perhaps I was not clear? What is true is that opinion polls outside an election campaign are NOT predictions because people behave differently when they realise that their opinions are soon to be translated into choosing a government rather expressing an opinion. So when judging the accuracy of the polls only the last 2 weeks are to be weighed in the balance. WHAT the present polls are doing is measuring swings in opinion which are probably temporary.

[Edison Smith]

Brown will always lead on the credit crisis question because it's an issue that is continuously changing day by day and he's in a position to show that he is responding to it. It's impossible to judge how Cameron would do simply because he is not PM at this moment in time.

[Cleethorpes Rock]

Very good point, Edison. I'd compare it to the situation when Brown had his lead last Autumn. Then, as the economy is doing now, the issues such as foiled terrorist attempts, flooding and an agriculture crisis provided Brown with a stage on which to present himself.

The circumstances once again afford Brown the opportunity to stand sombre behind a lectern, pronouncing broodingly on the woes of the nation, calling summits and giving interviews on how he's "getting on with the job in tough times". All of this is spread, virus-like through the media, in particular the BBC, by Derek Draper and his minions.

It's a very healthy lead for us considering this. We just need to keep to the basics as members, supporting the party through fundraising, recruiting new members, chipping away at canvass returns, registering our voters, getting conservative ideas into the local papers and asking each day "what have I done today to help elect a Conservative government?"