Another poll confirms healthy Tory lead

The Tories will be happy with this Ipsos MORI poll, conducted from the 17th to 19th October.

The big changes are from the previous Ipsos MORI survey which put the Conservatives on 52%.

There's much more within the detail of this poll which we'll report later.

Comments

[James Maskell]

The polls are irrelevant right now. The public doesnt have the time to pay attention to politics or to consider whether the Government are acting rightly. Its just not an issue anymore due to the turmoil.

[RichardJ]

Question is, how will the Osborne scandal (or non-scandal) affect future polls?

[Jennifer Wells]

Not much I reckon Richard. Voters expect such behaviour of politicians.

They are worried about their jobs and mortgages rather than who the Shadow Chancellor holidays with.

[Roy Seeman]

GORDON BROWN CAPITULATES!

We are back to the worst of "New Labour". The attack on George Osborne stinks of Alastair Campbell, digging up the dirt as only he can.
What about the Judgement of Peter Mandelson, Tony Blair and all the dubious gifts or "loans" given to Labour.

The sooner this despicable crowd are replaced the better it will be for this country.

[Sue Doughty]

If Osbourne resigns over yachtgate will Mandy have to follow suit and give up his peerage before the fur has got manky?
I don't think GO has done anything wrong - a Russian billionaire would have been amused to hear how democracy is funded and might have asked hypothetical questions over tea on a yacht in the sun. Walking away was not an option if the boat was at sea .... !
But Osbourne is dispensible. He is not the only economist on the Tory benches, and if he takes Mandy down with him he would deserve a kighthood.

[john parkes]

The Osborne affair has come at a good time. Had it been closer to the General Election it would have caused real damage. Unless Brown plans to call an election soon (unlikely?) there is time now for the Parliamentary Party to put in the forefront of its collective mind the effectiveness of the Labour `dirty tricks` department.
So Mandelson is at it again! It seems that Nat Rothschild`s father funds a Mandelson `think tank` to the tune of £250K. It seems further that Osborne and Feldman ought to have been more circumspect in accepting an invitation to meet at Rothschild`s house. Apparently it was the latter who initiated the `discussion` about a possible donation and that this was turned down. So if nothing illegal occurred, it is just a cautionary tale that must be heeded henceforth. The dangers of attracting the efforts of Mandelson and his acolytes luring Conservative MPs into the mire of dirty politics will now be ever-present and unless the the Party is ultra-careful, it will be a case of `here we go again,` And how the media are loving it all with the Times (the official Labour channel of communication) at the forefront.

[AlanofEngland]

That would be 2 official labour channels of communication then, john parkes, because the BBC is surely number 1?

[M Dowding]

Mandleson is off to Russia shortly. He having given Oleg lavish patronage as EU lacky is he about to offer more as a UK rep. A passport possibly?

[Mapa]

Big - picture

Summer
Nu_Con- 45-50%
NU_Lab 20-25%

Autumn
Nu_Con- 45-40%
NU_Lab 30-34%

Winter : my Guess
NU_Con - 45-40%
NU_Lab - 33-35%

[GB£.com]

"But Osbourne is dispensible. He is not the only economist on the Tory benches"

When did he become an economist?

[David Parker]

This is all so unimportant and merely demonstrates how desperate Labour are to divert attention away from the real issues.
Unfortunately, the mainstream journalists all seem to be more interested in coffee shop gossip than in looking into the state of our country and Government and provide easy cannon fodder for Campbell and his ilk.

[Happy Tory]

I think the journalists are thrilled to get there hands on something that they understand. All that high finance left most of them feeling somewhat underinformed.

[christina Speight]

Can we not all leave this silly story of bitchy gay getting his own back on a thoroughly silly and indiscreet Tory politician and consign it to the celebrity gossip columns where it belongs.

THIS THREAD IS ABOUT THE POLL

Frankly I'm worried about Ipsos-MORI. They dropped out for a time and have come back very tentatively. They have either found something that all the other polls have missed or they are very awry. I personally discounted the previous 28% lead and the massive swing this time.

But Political Betting's Mike Smithson, whose judgement I respect, explains the mechanics of political interviewing, so perhaps I should be less sceptical.

What is interesting is that telephone polling gets a disproportionate of public sector workers willing to be interviewed, a phenomenon which favours Labour apparently!

Most polls use this method of interviewing but Mori has made unspecified adjustments to compensate, YouGov uses Online polling which has its own peculiarities notably the very low rate of refusal as respondents can answer at their own convenience within a two day period .

Watch them all like hawks

[David (One of many)]

"They have either found something that all the other polls have missed or they are very awry. I personally discounted the previous 28% lead and the massive swing this time."

Christina, it might be helpful to think of this poll as reflecting Brown's recent marginal 'creep' all in one go, rather than in stages as the others have done.

[christina Speight]

David (One of many) - Nah! Don't think so. A 28% lead was so out of line with the real world that all this probably is is a correction to their methodology.

They got so much egg on their face after the London Mayor result that they have been examining the very foundations of their edifice

[David (One of many)]

Christina, I don't doubt that in part. I was simply pointing out that most polls, since the conferences and Gordon's 'superhero' efforts have put Labour on about 30 and the Conservatives on anywhere from 40-45. The only difference is because they did ones throughout the conference season we saw the Labour share go up by fractions of 1, rather than 7.

[rugfish]

Whilst polls are always good to see when giving some indication of satisfaction, there's nothing better than winning hearts and minds by actually doing something to deserve it.

How about if instead of filling the news up with Ozzie Osborne, that the party leaders look to brighten peoples lives up a bit with some policies to drive the economy and clear up Brown's mess as opposed to using the narrative of blame and tickling round the edges ?

I'm sure the country knows it's Browns's fault but unless some money is pumped into getting the country working again and helping to save jobs, then politicians can talk til the cows come home.

People want NEW direction away from the hippy EU followers, 'route and branch shake up of that and government and democracy and our economy', and a formula ( from George ) as to how the economy 'would look' under a new Tory government.

Also, someone needs to tell the world itself and Britain, that the free loading free market as it is now ( which has failed ), is not Margaret Thatchers way, the IMF conditionalities made Callaghan do it in 1976 before she was in government, that doesn't work and was the biggest millstone round Britains neck to agree with it, and the policies engendered by Labour have ever since been peddling along the free market road to ruin !

Direct government action is required with new ideas, fresh thinking and entrepreneurial thinking, private investment, and class management who holds this nation and its people above themselves in order to get Britain working and will fix our society.

Or have we dried up of everything except follow my leader ?

[B.Garvie]

The Brown bounce had been like a dead kipper and will continue to flatten.The country has lost confidence in this disfunctional PM who was typically evasive and didn't answer any questions today at PMQs.

Regarding the saga of G.O and the spurious 'donationgate' affair, it is just that. Who said what to whom, when and how is pathetic. Rumour, inuendo and conjecture by the Media do not give grounds for litigation.

[liz kemp]

This Osboutne story has all the signs of Alistair Cambell and Lord M.The timing was carefully chosen the day before PMQ to unsettle David Cameron and of course the journalists as expected rose to the bait. I truly despair of the intelligence our media has, particularly the political wing of the BBC which uses its monopoly of the air waves unashamedly. It is really time that the license fee for the BBC must be debated as it is corrupt and totally biased towards the Labour Party. Why are we paying for propaganda for the Labour Party????????

[resident leftie]

It's not BBC bias. It's on the front page of every paper, left or right wing.

[Lady in a dressing gown]

The BBC not biased, resident leftie? I first heard the story reported on the news channel by Robert Peston, employing the same neurotic breathless tone he used to describe the banking crisis. Wasn't his father a Labour peer?

[Malcolm Dunn]

Decent poll. Perhaps people will see Labour for what they are, utterly useless.GO has not helped us however and we may suffer for it. I now think he should apologise and seriously consider stepping down for the good of the party.

[Mark Hudson]

There has clearly been a public mood change. Understandably, people are far more more interested in whether their job, home and savings are secure than the raw politics of it at the moment. To be fair to Dave et al., it's all a bit too soon to judge what the impact is on the longer term political picture.

This said, this may just have been one of those political earthquakes that completely changes the dynamic. All that is clear, for me, is the Conservatives - on any benchmark - have handled the economic crisis very poorly and that's been reflected in the polls for now.

[Dave McEwan Hill]

It is worth noting that telephone canvassing is becomong less and less reliable as large sectors of the population (particularly the young)do not use landlines and a very large proportion of those with landlines have made themselves no longer accessible to phone canvassing.
I woud say the sample now taken is disproportionally middle to old age and lower income.

[Silvio Tanner]

The Parliamentary Political Parties Appear To Be Fighting Over
A % of A
Diminishing Source

Of The Registered Electorate
66% Do Knot Vote

The Apathetic Voter Is In The Ascendancy