You know what we think of mid-conference season polls but here you are...

Press release from ComRes:

"The Conservative Party’s lead over Labour has dropped from 19 to 12 points, according to a ComRes poll for The Independent, providing further evidence of a “Brown bounce”.

It puts the Tories on 41 per cent, down three points on last month, Labour on 29 per cent (up four points), the Liberal Democrats on 18 per cent (up one point) and other parties on 12 per cent (down two points).

Gordon Brown is seen as “best in a crisis” by 43 per cent of people, with 33 per cent opting for David Cameron. Mr Brown (43 per cent) is more trusted on the economy than Mr Cameron (33 per cent).

However, Mr Cameron is regarded as more likeable by 53 per cent of the public, with only 28 per cent preferring Mr Brown.

The Tory leader has a narrow lead on who is most competent to be Prime Minister, by 40 per cent to 38 per cent.

The two parties’ economic teams were neck and neck when ComRes asked people which of them gave them most confidence in their ability to bring the country’s economic problems to an end. Mr Brown and Alistair Darling scored 39 per cent, as did Mr Cameron and Mr Osborne."

 Midnight:

Our graphic compares changes with this ComRes survey.

Comments

[RichardJ]

Why is PB showing a Tory increase of 2%?

[Simon]

Might be better showing the change since the more recent ComRes poll (taken post-LD conference)

That shows Con +2, Lab +2, LD-3

A more realistic reflection of the Labour conference.

No bounce at all

Just bad news for Cleggy

[M Dowding]

RichardJ:
Answer was there none! Maybe Dolly Draper is at work. PB seems pretty confident it is +2,+2,-3.

[john]

Best go to Politicalbetting.com to get an accurate and sensible coverage on polling.

[M Dowding]

Why is it so wrong everywhere? Which is correct? What the **** is going on? Draper once more? Come on TM sort it out.

[Edison Smith]

Events dear boy.

The Tory conference is getting swamped by the Wall street/US congress farago. This stuff is likely to drag on all week; Cameron's speech is going to sink without trace.

We couldn't have picked a worse week to hold conference!

I predict a conference bounce of 0%.

[RichardJ]

"Cameron's speech is going to sink without trace."

Good thing Osborne's council tax freeze got mentioned then.

One would hope the Mail and the Telegraph would give Cameron front page coverage but they seem to have it in for Cameron.

[gezmond007]

it's all happening , I did warn you all! The lead is fast disappearing. Dave and issue are being found out . Just watched dispatches channel 4. What a mess . This is going to cause so much trouble , we will be lucky to be five points behind by Christmas , never mind ahead.

[Edison Smith]

Dowding - as already recommended, go to politicalbetting.

Unlike the utterly misleading ComRes press release quoted above, there is a proper analysis there.

Tories up +2.

RichardJ, there's no way any paper - whichever way it hangs - is going to lead with Osborne's council tax over the current crisis and nor should it be expected to.

We've just been very unlucky with the chronology of events.

Nothing anyone can do about it.

[M Dowding]

http://ukpollingreport.co.uk/blog/archives/1430
Also says +2 Con and +2 Labour, -3 LibDums!my money is on these figures.
Events will be muted until next Congressional vote on Thursday.

[Simon]

The vast majority of people don't understand markets and shares - they do understand freezing tax rates and the effect that will have on them.

I think that messages like that will still get through.

Give it 6 weeks and the leads will be back to 15-20%

[M Dowding]

Edison Smith, I have been to PB and the ukpollingreport link. As you say, The ComRes release is disgraceful.
GezzyMondozero, I too saw Dispatches and Robinsons attempted but failed assination. Dispatches was hysterical nonsense full of pathetic spite and ire. Osborne's speech made them both very inconsequential.

[David (One of many)]

gezmond007, go away. You're not fooling anyone with your ridiculous false concern.

If the Brown bounce is indeed limited to a rise that is essentially within the margin of error that is certainly a good thing. But it's a conference poll, so obviously take everything with a pinch of salt.

[RichardJ]

"RichardJ, there's no way any paper - whichever way it hangs - is going to lead with Osborne's council tax over the current crisis and nor should it be expected to."

I was referring to Cameron's speech. I suppose it might get a front page mention on the Telegraph as a minor article.

[Edison Smith]

Just to reaffirm, the Tories are up 2% from the last ComRes poll, as mentioned on PoliticalBetting:

When it is published in the paper in morning it will show comparisons with the newspaper’s August survey - not the last poll from the firm that was completed just before Labour’s gathering in Manchester. That’s a pity because the only comparisons that really matter are with the previous survey from the same firm.

Fieldwork for the last poll took place immediately after the Lib Dem conference and just before the start of the Labour’s gathering in Manchester. That showed a big boost for the Lib Dems mostly at the expense of the Tories.

Well tonight’s new poll sees most of that Lib Dem increase disappearing with both the Tories and Labour up two points each.

http://politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2008/09/29/will-labour-be-disappointed-with-this/#comments

_________

I watched Panorama: Nick Robinson getting DC to talk to five voters.

In fairness, it was an okay programme (but, as with all dumbed down BBC progs these days, lacking any real substance) which said what most swing voters think - DC is a nice guy who they want to trust, but are not sure exactly what he is about.

They did a similar programme with Blair in 1994 and got similar responses. Wondered what happened to that guy...

[gezmond007]

David , one of many , you go away and grow up . Stick your head in the stand if you wish but you will wake up on may 11th 2010 with another labour government . Don't say you were not warned !!

[Sean]

We need to get out that this poll is actually not all that bad and we need to reiterate the lack of action by the government. No structural reform, no massive changes in economic policy to shock the financial markets to revive them.

[Jake]

So the poll lead is shrinking. It was always going to be so. Plenty of time in the next 18 months for it to yo yo repeatedly.

At some time the Tories are going to have to decide to go in for the kill and that means throwing existing reservations aside and bringing all possible guns to bear on Labour.
It means getting real about the political situation in the UK, casting aside the idiotic delusions about regaining seats in Scotland and Wales and going for votes in the only part of it where it really counts for the Tories ie in England.

The only way to get past old party political barriers and reach the majority of English who won't normally look at he Tories is to declare for a referendum in England on an English parliament and English self government. Within a federal UK of course. The time to do this right now and let the notion gain traction.

Slipping in gratefully at a general election with a few percent majority to commence five years of buggins' turn would be utterly pathetic.
Blair knew that only satisfactory victory was the most crushing wipeout of a victory that was possible and he ruthlessly constructed a narrative to ensure that.
Time for the Tories to do just that and the key to it is to recruit England to their cause.

[M Dowding]

So Gezmond is really Dolly Draper!
LOL

[Ulster Tory]

'gezmond007' clearly fails to comprehend basic physics. One cannot stick one's head into a solid. How ridiculous. That along with his preposterous prediction makes me concerned about his intellectual ability.

Might I suggest he goes back to Key Stage 3?

[RichardJ]

"So Gezmond is really Dolly Draper!"

Beat me to it.

[gezmond007]

hi dowdy , nice one . Dolly draper ! Ulster Tory sorry meant sand and not stand .thought you might have worked that one out , you know with your interlectual ability. Lol!

[Ulster Tory]

I made the unfortunate assumption that you could spell. More fool me.

[Edison Smith]

Excellent post over on Political Betting by 'GIN':

Of course the danger for Labour supporters and journalists in putting so much emphasis on this modest polling bounce, without giving the caveat that what we’re seeing in the polls is nothing more than would be expected, is that when the polls revert to type at the end of the week and through October, the disapointment from Labour supporters will present as further anger and disilussionment at Brown. If Labour spinners were smart they would be playing down these polls until they see where things stand at the end of the week….. But then since when were Labour smart?

[Jill, London]

I didn’t see Panorama, only Despatches [they clashed]. The Despatches programme was a let-down for the Left as it was inconclusive. The reporter – one Anthony Barnett – is a Lefty [as if that wasn’t obvious]. I Googled him – and discovered he even interviewed one of his colleagues on “Open Democracy” without declaring his interest.

Barnett was the first director of Charter 88 and - according to Left-leaning Wikipedia: “Charter 88 was created by 348 mainly Liberal and social democratic British intellectuals and activists. They signed a letter to the New Statesman magazine as "a general expression of dissent" following the 1987 General Election triumph of the Conservative Party, led by Prime Minister Margaret Thatcher.”

How typically Lefty, and undemocratic. What a pity Conservatives didn’t form a similar group in 1997 expressing “general dissent” at the election of B-Liar, and fellow Comrades – just think we may have saved this country from this current fiscal calamity.

[Norm Brainer]

The problem with the media not reporting it with the caveats may also mean that people think that it's starting to be no longer shameful to vote brown and attached with the lack of headlines from conference given the events in america (well, we'll see what happens tomorrow) then there might not be so much of reverting to type through october.
I'm sure as parliament starts again though the splits in labour and brown's general brownness will surface and 20% leads will be normal again.

[Jill, London]

I, too, have been commenting on “Dolly” Draper’s rebuttal unit. “Gezmond007” certainly sounds like one of their members – but then I’ve been ‘outing’ “Dolly” Draper trolls quite a lot today – and “Gezmond007” isn’t the only one.

It also makes me wonder if “Dolly” Draper was part of Comrade Livingstone’s rebuttal unit, too. We were plagued with a number of anonymous posters at the time of the London mayoral elections – all promoting Comrade Livingstone, and denigrating Boris. They must have slunk away as their hero lost – and Boris won.

[Joe James B]

Glasgow North East

May 2010
most likely

Con 11,390 33.6% (+33.6%)
Speaker 10,611 31.3% -22.0%
SNP 7,661 22.6% +4.9%
Solidarity 2,204 6.5%
BNP 644 1.9%
Oth 1,390 4.1%

Total votes 33,900
Con majority 779 2.3%

No swing calculated (27.8% from Speaker to Con)

Con Gain from Speaker

[Tim Montgomerie]

Apologies folks. I've now added the CH graphic which makes the changes clear since the most recent ComRes survey.

[John W]

No apologies necessary Tim.

Who on earth is this ridiculous gezmond fellow?

What utter drivel he is writing.

A 12 point ComRes lead before the Labour conference has evaporated into a 12 point one post Lab Conf - I knew this Cameron chap was no good, it's his terrible media skills, dithering and lack of strategic vision that has led us into this mess where we are only looking at forming the next government - out with him I say!

[Dominic]

Emily Maitless interview with George Osborne on Newsnight was painful. Osborne came across as weak and not to confident not many of the Shadow Cabinet seem be able to perform like the big beasts of the past who would have swiped down this third rate interviewer with ease;Neil needs to put in his place his interviews with all Conservatives apart from Boris is on the borders of being venomous
When is the Conservative Party going to go on the offensive on this outrageous BBC bias and be far more assertive and aggressive when being interviewed by these Labour Pawns?
This conference is doomed as far as publicity as World events have taken over.

[Malcolm Dunn]

Gezmond007 is unlikely to be part of Draper's ridiculous band of brothers. He's been making posts like this for many months.He sometimes uses the term 'we' to describe the Conservatives but it doesn't really fool anyone. He's tribal Labour.

[Northern Tory]

This week is a watershed moment from DC & GO...
Strong performance and we seal the deal. Lukewarm and we might be in for a fight..
The tone isn't serious enough yet - stop banging on about RDA's and Assemblies and housekeeping...

Start going on about shoring up the economy and keeping people in jobs and homes!

[Matthew Cain]

There are similarities between Cameron and Obama.

Obama had a big lead but failed to 'seal the deal' with voters who liked him but weren't convinced. McCain then started to claw it back with attack ads and a sustained assault.

Is something similar happening in the UK?

[James Maskell]

I agree with Dominic...that looked painful, especially when Emily Maithis pinned him down about the Council tax announcement. He squirmed so badly. Why did Osborne say it wasnt a tax cut, when it so obviously is? It was sent out as a tax cut to please the members and try to grab the headlines at a time when council tax increases hurt vulnerable groups and when the headlines are well away from Birmingham.

Im amazed he hadnt tried to work out an answer in advance of such questions which should have been knocked away with confidence.

[passing leftie]

Posted by: gezmond007 | September 29, 2008 at 23:37

hi dowdy , nice one . Dolly draper ! Ulster Tory sorry meant sand and not stand .thought you might have worked that one out , you know with your interlectual ability. Lol!

You are either a very clever Tory performing an elaborate double bluff, or you are an embarassingly poor Labour troll.

[B.Garvie]

The Brown bounce will gradually dissappear and he will again slide down the ratings because his handling of this financial crisis has been absymal as he appears to have no cohesive structured plan. His self-publicity stunt to the US was literally a waste of time. Governance during this crisis has collapsed and confidence gone.He & his infighting Cabinet do not show leadership, they only react to events which leaves the country uncertain, frightened and rudderless. Labour having imploded and bereft of ideas have given up effective governance. The electorate will be keenly watching sensible policies coming from Cameron's strong team. IHT, no 3rd runway at LHR, NHS isolation rooms, no more mixed wards and a freeze on council tax are all eminently sensible policies. In a time of austerity and without being complacent, it will be a strong and effective Tory Party, with well costed policies, that will bring our country through.

[Saltmaker]

You are either a very clever Tory performing an elaborate double bluff, or you are an embarassingly poor Labour troll.

Given this government's record on competence, I'm going for "embarrassingly poor".

[passing leftie]

Likeability is just what we need in a global banking crisis.

To put out a hostage to fortune, I think the polls will shift back about 2 or 3 % more to the Tories, then settle for a while.

Politicalbetting.com says:
Labour has had a pretty good week and a half and there is now a sense that a Tory landslide, which seemed to be almost inevitable, might not now be such a certainty.

Now might not be a bad time to put some money on the Tories to win by a decent margin.

[West London Tory]

Gesmond is either Dolly Draper or a reincarnation of Gloy Plopwell

[M Dowding]

HE IS DOLLY DRAPER! Virtually admitted it too. As for calling me "dowdy". Takes one to know one but I'm no cuckold, cokie.
Malcolm Dunn, I know he's been on this blog for some time. That's how he dreamt up the rebuttal unit scam spam.
I claim my £5.00.

[Yet Another Anon]

They did a similar programme with Blair in 1994 and got similar responses. Wondered what happened to that guy...
Tony Blair though only became Party Leader and Leader of the Opposition in 1994, David Cameron though has been Conservative leader and Leader of the Opposition for 3 years now.

[John Ward]

If M Dowling is right, it would demonstrate yet again how other parties' policies and practices are being driven by what the Conservatives are doing.

The Soviet-style Rapid Rebuttal Unit would be one predictable response of a dodgy Leftie administration to the threat of truths coming out without a hastily-manufactured "rebuttal" from the spin merchants.

No doubt there are many others as well, but the principle remains the same: if any government feels the need to create such a Rebuttal Unit, that in itself is proof enough that we are now well and truly in a USSR-style governmental situation. It was just such a pity that only a few of us recognised the signs early on: now millions know.

Meanwhile, as I have mentioned elsewhere, the between-conferences polls are in themselves of very limited significance. All they can do is "fill in the blanks" between the actually significant polls: they have no stand-alone value.

[Jill, London]

John Ward – there are a number of us who have picked up on “Dolly” Draper’s rapid rebuttal unit. Here’s one story that first appeared in the prestigious trade paper “PR Week”:

“From PR Week: the Labour Party is exploring plans for an online rapid rebuttal unit, designed to kill off damaging stories circulating in the blogosphere. Former lobbyist Derek Draper will oversee the initiative, having recently been called in by Labour’s general secretary to advise on how the party can communicate its message.”

LINK: http://www.britishblogs.co.uk/theme/richard-benyon-derek-draper-lobby-loses-rebuttal-unit-online-rapid/

What is astonishing is the Comrades’ high command feel the need to advertise this, but then – as you pointed out – they’ve got away with so much. We are the most spied on nation in the world – and what do the majority of these Stasi spy cameras do – persecute motorists, not catch criminals. The sooner this shower are booted out the better!

[Votedave]

It's interesting that the BBC seemed to be silent on polls before - but in the past week they have suddenly begun to publish them with the greatest readiness.

[Jill, London]

Five minutes after my previous post about “Dolly” Draper, Iain Dale posted he’s at our conference in person! Iain comments wryly: “Perhaps he has come to post comments on the blog in person...”
LINK: http://www.iaindale.blogspot.com/

[Jill, London]

PS to my previous post – Guido posted about his sighting of “Dolly” Draper slightly earlier than Iain Dale:

Rapid Rebuttal Unit Arrives in Person
Guido has just spotted Derek Draper himself, wearing a Hawaiian shirt and sandals combination, checking into the Hyatt conference hotel. A well judged outfit calculated to make him blend in here in rainy Birmingham. Guido did not get a photo because he was laughing.
at 4:34 PM 55 comments

LINK: http://www.order-order.com/

[Edison Smith]

If I had tits Emily Maitless (sp?) would be getting on them.

She basically just said on Newsnight that 'the Right is dead' and the Conservative party is 'an irrelevance'.

Time and time again she is spuming out this gunk unchecked, as are her lefty bedfellows Crick and the rest of the NewsShite team.

Rant over.

[Jill, London]

I agree with Edison Smith, the delight of the Left is nauseating [and they have the cheek to accuse Conservatives of gloating over Comrade Brown’s mismanagement of the economy]. And in the case of the Bolshevik Broadcasting Corporation – we are paying for it. ’Capitalism is dead’ they keep proclaiming. However, I think Mark Twain’s comment on reading his own obituary is more in order.

[Plopwell Rennard]

The Lib Dems have all the answers, but are being blacked out.

[Jill, London]

“Plopwell Rennard” wasn’t watching tonight’s Newsnight – Cable was there – and not “blacked out”!

Guido Fawkes has Cable’s ‘number’ – check out this:

“Cable Flip-Flops - Vince Cable has in response just done a waltz around the Westminster studios joining in with his own call for cross-party co-operation in the national interest - "We have to avoid getting caught up in narrow partisanship."

“The press releases sent from his office in the last 24 hours had a very different message:
"Gordon Brown’s response to the economic crisis has been too little, too late."
"Conservatives don’t have a clue on the banking crisis"

LINK: http://www.order-order.com/

[On The Job]

I wonder what the polls willbe at the end of the week especially now that dc has made such a powerful speech yesterday the interesting thing now is that the Labour conference last week looked like a partry in oppostion attcking the government having just suffered a huge election defeat when compared to the statesment like behaviour at the conservative conference and the powerful speeches that dc and go have given.

The direction is coming from the tories not Labour now and we are settig agenda on the crisis.

Plopwell rennard the lib dems have all the answers is just plop