Tories dip below 40% in new poll

We should be careful about all opinion surveys carried out in the middle of conference seasons. Parties always benefit from the oxygen of publicity effect.  But today ComRes confirms the YouGov bounce for the LibDems.  It may be a completely temporary effect but it may be (yet again) that voters are switching because of tax cuts. It did, after all, happen during last year's party conference season when a one Mr Osborne announced his IHT cut.

Comments

[Sally Roberts]

Bound to happen - but wait until after our Conference when we'll get it back!

[Jackie M Miller]

I'm sure that Tim is right and that the reason for the bizarre ComRes result is that Party Conferences are bizarre events. Let's see what the polls look like when the Conference season is over.

If, however, it then becomes clear that voters are following the LD promise of taxcuts, then my opinion of Clegg - which is already low - will nosedive still further. It was wickedly irresponsible of him both to make promises he will never be in a position to have to deliver and to encourage voters to think that the good times are just round the corner again when responsible politicians should be urging them to be prudent about the hard times that really do lie ahead. He is behaving like a parent offering the promise of sweets he hasn't got to a diabetic child.

[Edison Smith]

Speaking as someone who was too young to remember the 1992 victory and who has only known ignominious defeat (the 'George Osborne Generation' if you will), I simply refuse to believe the next election - whenever it is called - is in the bag.

I can see a potential doomsday scenario which, knowing our beloved party, is not beyond the realms of possibility:

1) Brown and his horrid party get a bounce from a surprisingly united conference and the upturn in the banking stuff etc.

2) All eyes will turn to the Tory conference, the one which was predicted beforehand to be the most serene of the three...

3)... and the Tories bugger it all up. After the apparent popularity of Nick Clegg's tax-cutting agenda, there are calls from large parts of the Tory base for the party to commit to our own. Osborne refuses, gets a muted reception to his speech, and suddenly the news agenda is - 'Tories divided on tax'.

4) Suddenly, the lead is eroded, down to 5-6 points, and the news narrative becomes 'Is Cameron the real deal or not?' etc etc.

In short, are we to see by the end of the year a (slower) reversal of last year's curve?

I am used to supporting the party which is the underdog. The fact that we no longer are makes me neurotic, paranoid and, well, fearful of a rapid change in fortunes.

Someone put my mind at rest!

[ChrisD]

Polling over the conference period is a roller coaster for politicians and political anoraks.
Best to wait until after they are over and the commons is back in session, then the polls will begin to give a clearer over all picture of the position of all the parties.

One of Mike Smithson's observations which has proved accurate time and time again, the Tories tends to dip when Cameron is out of the media spotlight.

Hopefully Cameron and Osborne will not attempt to play the tax cutting game on the back of the Libdems dodgy new policy. Yes we all want tax cuts, but they are better implemented when they make fiscal sense. Osborne's IHT announcement was a year ago, the economic picture is a hell of a lot more unstable just now and debt just keeps on rising.
A bit of political honesty about the fact that we are all going to have to feel a bit financial pain while we correct the mess that Gordon has left would be more statesman like IMHO.
The Libdems figures did not bear close scrutiny, and you can be sure that the Tories policies will be put under a microscope.
We borrowed our way into this mess, and I doubt it is simple a question of tax cutting our way out of it.

[david1]

Try this, perhaps the fact the Tories have strong links with the City in the minds of the voting public, may be having a subliminal effect.

It would be ironic if the City became the Tory Party's 'Unions' remember the, 'Gnomes of Zurich'

It is noticeable that no senior Tory Party politician has condemned the behaviour of what the Mail calls, 'City Spivs'

[ak23566]

I no more believe the accuracy of this poll as I did the Ipsos-MORI one that had us on 52% earlier in the week.

Comparing about 2,000 actual like-for-like canvassing returns in my home constituency (comparing people canvassed during the 6 weeks preceding the 2005 GE and recanvassed this year) shows a direct swing of 7% from Labour to Conservative. There is obviously additional churning at the edges (from Lab to abstaining, abstaining to Conservative (substantial) and Conservative and Labour to BNP in the most D/E communities). There is also movement from LibDem to Con but the sample is too small to be statistically significant.

My own view is we are between 43%-45%; Labour around 28% and the LibDems just above 15%.

I also believe "spiral of silence" that affected our poll ratings in the 1990s are probably now suppressing Labour support for the same reasons and I am not sure if the pollsters are factoring this into their data.

I do not accept for one moment that we are "home and dry" and I despair at the triumphalism on certain blogs. I remember the 1992 election when some of the earlier polls showed Labour 10% ahead when we finally finished up winning by a margin of 7%.

[Man in a Shed]

It is vital that Gordon Brown is nailed for the breakdown of the banking system and the lack of contigency the government has.

It needs a simple phrase - like "failing to fix the roof whilst the sun shined", which was very effective at communicating with the public.

Darling and Brown need to be roasted for blowing smoke in peoples eyes over short selling. Investigations need to be set up into how the government has failed.

The public are making their minds up now about this and if they blame spivs and bankers - they will support Brown.

[cheshireboy]

Having watched the Crewe & Nantwich byelection from close-up I was struck that the Lib Dems would have been more effective if they'd had a clear distinct message.

Perhaps Clegg's "tax cutting headline" has finally done that?

Worrying times.

[Dave McEwan Hill]

"sun shone" surely.

[Dave McEwan Hill]

I imagine last week's poll was a statistical blip and this week's poll is nearer the mark. LibDems conference may have given them a bounce but nobody believes they'll ever be in any position to cut tax so to imagine that that has anything to do with their apparent rise is delusion.

Factor into all contemplation on this issue that there is considerable vested interest in Gordon Brown remaining in place as a lame duck Labour leader. A lot of Labour's enemies want to face GB at a General Election and not somebody more formidable so the trick will be to keep him in place but hugely unpopular.

[Karen Lumsden]

I've always voted for our party but I'm thinking of switching to the Lib Dems as a protest against our non-conservative tax policies.

[Aeneas]

Seems a bit of a rogue to me... As you say, pay no attention to polls during the conference season.

[Matt Wright]

We are still significantly ahead but there are lessons in the last few weeks for those who wish to learn them. I think that we need to crystallise our vision for the public; we will have to start rolling out policies in a bit more detail if not in all their detail; and some authentic grit needs to be injected into our hopes for people. The public want a change but they want it to be real and practical rather than too smooth and celebrity orientated.

[James Burdett]

Karen Lumsden, if you are willing to swallow the Lib Dem spin based on their headline gimmicks, fine. When you start to dig around their plans you will find that large swathes of people will be worse off under their plans. Not to mention that they are predicated on savings that may not be found during a significant economic downturn. The Lib Dem plans are all about electoral tactics and nothing about responsible tax and spending ideas. Their plans are designed to save them seats, but by all means feel free to throw yourself into the trap.

[Stefan]

SACK CAMERON NOW

[David Belchamber]

Conference time is all about leadership and confidence in one party as opposed to lack of confidence in another can be as evanescent as confidence in a bank.

However, whether or not a bank survives turbulent times will depend upon a close examination of its net assets. So, too, in politics: Nick Clegg/Vince Cable achieved a degree of bounce that might fade because the real substance is not there. Gordon Brown has done everything in his power to eliminate any open criticism of him at his conference and that might get him back nearer 30% - which, in the circumstances, he will regard as very good, perhaps even the tipping point in his fight back.

Then it will be Cameron/Osborne's turn. I believe if they continue as they have been going recently - i.e. very low key with few suggestions as to what to do to deal with the current situation, they will squander their huge poll advantage.

If, on the other hand, they are bold and set out a vision for mending our broken society, then I believe the opposition would be left standing. Starting with promising tax advantages for the lowest earners, paying for it by savings in benefits, waste and bureaucracy, offering better value for money in all the public services through efficient management, bearing down on crime by bringing police back on to the front line, producing long-term plans for long-term problems - pensions, energy, food production, flood defences etc - offering a sensible stance on the EU and restoring the morale in our armed forces would all be good to hear.

The last thing is the competence of each individual member of our government. We have castigated various current members - sometimes unfairly - and we must urge Cameron to avoid sentiment in his choice of cabinet and to avoid cronies. Only competence will do.

[Neal]

Maybe people are realising that the Tories are still the nasty party, that they still have no ideas, no vision, no solutions to the problem?

I do hope so!

[snegchui]

I think if any party is entitled to the label Nasty Party it is now the Labour Party.
Widening social division, engineered backstabbing amongst its leadership at the expense of confronting national issues, lying and distortion on statistic after statistic, real fights over handbags as at the Deputy Leader Contest. Self-absorbed, anal in holding a grudge, misdirected in theory and deed, only holding power for the sake of privilege and power.
Lose the pensions, start drumming up "The Old must work longer, until death if necessary". Flint, make them homeless, Harman sting the single mothers, oh the list just goes on.
The sooner this Labour Government flushes itself down the pan the better for all.

[passing leftie]

Nick Clegg's speech:

"When there is a Liberal Democrat government, we will offer all citizens the chance to select their own superpower, for example invisibility, superstrength; or chameleon skin. With our NHS improvements in predictive medicine, no one will be ill. All students will be permitted to go to Oxford or Cambridge, and sandals will be made free at the point of use. On the first day of a Liberal Democrat government, my colleagues in the cabinet will form a human pyramid, and pull capuchin monkeys from our arses."

[Gezmond007]

You lot are so predictable , Last week 52% ,"hurrah ! hurrah ! we,ve done it we are on the brink of victory" !

This week , new poll 39% , "oh you can,t trust these polls , conference and all that you know".

Result- No change LOL

[Votedave]

I trust YouGov the most, Gezmond. They were the most accurate at forecasting the London Mayor election.

[On The Job]

in fairness Gezmond there were just as many people saying you can't believe the polls at 52%

it is still fairly engouraging as labour are on 27% that much i do believe!!