Ipsos MORI poll rumoured to show Tories exceeding 50%

YouGov's Anthony Wells has noted on his blog a rumour this afternoon that a MORI poll will show the Conservatives at 52%, with Labour on 24% and the Liberal Democrats on 12%.

Political Betting's Mike Smithson has had confirmation from MORI that the poll exists, but not of the figures - which will be released at midnight. One journalist with the embargoed press release has confirmed the figures to Smithson.

Comments

[Ross]

It's absolutely incredible, 1 in 4 voters would still vote Labour even after everything!

[John]

After Clegg's ramble today I would expect to see Liberal support draining away. No substance - just personal attacks on DC, who must be flattered that Clegg is worried!!

[Man in a Shed]

I wonder what's stopping the Cabinet from telling Gordon to go.

Perhaps there is something else in the closet along the lines of HBOS ...

[David Belchamber]

Phew! If it turns out to be true tomorrow, then the conservatives must be really bold in their policies - promising the sort of things that ConHome contributors have been saying over and over again - to deliver a knock-out punch.
The worry is, as usual, that we are hearing precious little from the shadow treasury team which will have to be at the forefront of the country's economic recovery.

[Andrew Woodman]

Not good enough. If we were following the UKIP manifesto we would be at 60%.

[Oberon Houston]

But Nick Clegg has just said the LibDems should prepare for government! Idiot.

Well, if this poll is real it is incredible. We need to be prepared for an early implosion of this Labour government. Things are gathering pace and the prospect of them electing a second leader who has never headed the Labour Party during a GE is real. This is uncharted territory and could cause the government to collapse before Christmas. One year on from the election that never was, we might find another one looming.

Okay, wheres the poll guru's, what does this mean, and is it historic?

[michael m]

All the more reason for team Cameron to continue to plug the message- "we ain't won yet"

The higher the lead the more likely that Brown will go and whoever takes over will have a substantial bounce- just out of relief- that is when it will be most dangerous for us- we must not forget the election could still be some 18 months away. So no crowing please, at least not until mid 2010

[YMT]

@Andrew Woodman

No we wouldn't go troll somewhere else.

[David Sergeant]

Yeh right Ross, this can't be true, 24% still voting Labour, can't be, people are not that daft.

[Andrew Woodman]

YMT , I was being ironic!!

[Sally Roberts]

Nice to agree with you on this Andrew! :-)

[Sally Roberts]

...and yes I knew you were being ironic...

[Sally Roberts]

...I am too...

[ChrisD]

"Okay, wheres the poll guru's, what does this mean, and is it historic?"

I am no polling expert, but someone on PB.com noted that it has been 20 years since we saw this kind of figures for the Conservatives.

[YMT]

Sorry Andrew :(

Good new though, phycologically disastrous for Labour and a nice boost for us before the conference. Their own conference is going to have the feel-good factor of.. I can't think of anything for an adequate simile... but bad is what I'm getting at.

[Malcolm Dunn]

YMT, you've got the wrong end of the stick Andrew Woodman is a famous Conservative!

[newmania]

Someone on Political betting makes it

Conservative 470
Labour: 121
Lib Dems: 8
NI: 18
PC: 3
SNP: 20

When you think that Brown bottled when he was actually well ahead on the basis of data from the marginals ....

[Morus]

Mike Smithson has now confirmed the figures with a journalist who has a copy of the embargoed poll...

http://politicalbetting.com

[YMT]

@Malcolm Dunn

Going through his website now! Still young and dumb, can't help it.

[The Wilted Rose]

This is notable in that it is a 9% swing (if my maths is right) direct from the Lib Dems to the Conservatives.

In other words, the Lib Dems are advocating tax cuts and voters realise that only the Conservatives can deliver them.

[Mark Williams]

8 seats? It's hard not to feel sorry for Clegg and the Lib Dems, but if you can make the effort I think you will find it worthwhile because it is a very satisfying feeling.

[Pau;]

This is great news for us, but I would add a word of caution to those who want the party to be bolder especially in regards tax cuts. What incentive is there to Cameron et al to start announcing substantial policies when we have this lead? The government is imploding, I doubt we will hear much over the coming months. Let's just sit back and enjoy this and hope that the Shadow Cabinet is actually developing concrete policies that can be implemented when we finally return to government.

[Andrew Woodman]

I forgive you YMT. I should have put a smiley on the end of it.

Back on the thread, Will the media but this poll together with Nick Clegg's statement that they're heading for Government? It would make him look foolish on the scale of Kinnock!!

[ToryNorth]

Not really, I'm certain the sample would have been gathered before they announced all that shiz. It's the global economic meltdown that's the main influencing factor.

[MrB]

Look at one of the major headlines on the BBC News site:

"Lib Dems 'headed for government' - Nick Clegg says the Lib Dems are on the way to power in his first conference speech as party leader."

This is even more embarassing than David Steel's infamous remark.

[RichardJ]

"It's absolutely incredible, 1 in 4 voters would still vote Labour even after everything!"

The welfare and nonjob vote. We have to get these people into work/out of the public sector ASAP.

[C List and Proud]

We're Awwwwright!

Calm down Mr Clegg, you won't have to lead your party much longer as you will also lose your seat on those figures.

[South Down Tory]

Isn't it great to see? According to electoral calculus, we'd win Manchester Withington and Newcastle Central on these figures!!

Hee! Hee!

[A Tory in the Bury area]

C list and Proud - So long as DC doesn't give us one of those performances we will be alright.!

[A Sussex Conservative]

The important psychological factor is 50%+, and all this achieved without a raft of policies! The secret there is that theres no reason any longer to oppose the tories - and David Cameron knows that.

Yes, a quarter of the electorate still support Labour - but thats because they're too stupid to think of anyone else to vote for. Maybe thats why wee Gordie has 340+ seats at the moment and still can't find enough MPs to appoint one to each cabinet portfolio?

For the record I think thats an historic first, at least in modern times. Even Bliar only registered about 46% in the Major government's dog days.

However lets be realistic. No votes have been cast yet, and yes - it is possible still to lose the GE at this stage - so lets all keep out senses and avoid conplacency like the black death!!!

[Eek]

A poll doesnt make a parliament.

There could still be a couple of years hard slog to go.

The only poll that counts is when they empty that ballot box on election day!

[Oberon Houston]

The really heartening thing is that a big win will help re-build the base of the party (as a big local win already has helped).

Stronger associations in more wards should be a real focus now we have such a renewed interest in our party after so many years of decline. This will help ensure that we will resume our place as the main party of government for the next generation and more.

I would like to see as many local association members turning up to canvassing and association meetings as roll up for 'victory celebration drinks' - always seem to to be more at the latter!

Polls like this one demand that we think big and bold not only on policy - but on the grassroots movement and organisation.

[Oberon Houston]

ps... BIG losses for Labour and LibDems will do the opposite. A poll like this one will devastate their respective party organisation.

[R Coomer]

I believe that an early General Election is in the pipeline - probably before Christmas. My reasoning is this:- GB is clearly out of touch and if pushed would rather call an Election than be ousted by his own. In the delusional world of NuLab, they really believe that the last 10+ years have been great and that the polls are mid-term blues/protest. They've churned out the same cr*p for so long they probably believe it themselves. The polls show that all the other runners are at least as unpopular as GB so where can they turn? Who of the contenders would step forward to be humiliated in a GE? Instead they'd be better to run after a defeat and hope that DC messes it up - at that stage, they can only improve their party's position. This assumes it doesn't melt-down altogether - unlikely given the LD standing in the polls. GB will try to wrong foot DC and hope that the conservatives have a policy vacuum. He'll gamble because he'll have nothing to lose and the rebels will be forced to unite behind him or carry the blame for inevitable defeat...

(Bring it on ;-)

[Robert Eve]

Unless Dave commits to holding an EU referendum and unless the vote is NO it's pretty pointless to get excited about the Conservatives winning the election.

[Norm Brainer]

GB is clearly out of touch and if pushed would rather call an Election than be ousted by his own
Yes, I get that feeling too... I think now is the time to start announcing policies - they are too busy trying to deal with events after they happen and are in such a state that they won't be able to steal them now anyway; and the contrast will be so great that labour will be deader than a dodo.

[DavidRHayes]

Crikey, how much are we going to be on after the Labour conference? Lets face it Brown always manages to commit hari kari.

How much ground can we gain after our own conference?

[EssexBoy]

I can only really echo the bemusement of others. I can't believe 24% of the electorate are still willing to vote for Labour.

Personally it comes as no great surprise that we're pushing through the 50% mark. I mean, given how much of a disaster Brown has been; is it any surprise? The polls have been grossly underestimating support for the Tories since before the election that never was.

[Edison Smith]

Things are just getting absurd.

I know nothing about parliamentary procedure. When the house re-opens for business, can not Cameron table a no confidence motion in Brown, and get an election over and done with?

Two more years of the Brown Misery is unthinkable.

[VoiceofDoom]

On the 24% issue. I don't think that represents the true picture. I have a feeling that a significant proportion of Labour voters will switch to the BNP, particularly in the North of England. This is the kind of voting pattern that polls are less good at picking up. They might even win a couple of seats.

[EML]

Incredible poll - the Shadow Cabinet are going to be confident come the conference.

However, I expect to see all of them keep their feet firmly on the ground and look like a government in waiting, as opposed to the jumped-up Clegg who thinks he's on way to Number 10 ...

[Paul D]

Edison, he can - but turkeys won't vote for Christmas

No Labour MP who may lose his seat (pretty much all of them based on this poll!) will vote against the Govt in a VONC so Brown would win it and limp on until 2010

Would losing a VONC force a General Election? Well, the Queen COULD refuse to dissolve parliament, asking if anyone else could form a government, but would any Labour MP be willing to become interim PM and likely lead them to a massive defeat? Of course, a lost VONC around the time of the Euro elections next year COULD precipitate a GE as we'd be 4 years or more into the parliament and the calling of a GE wouldn't be completely out of the ordinary at that time

[DJT]

Where is Gloy Poopwell when you need a giggle?

I'd love to hear his (her?) thoughts on this!

[Norm Brainer]

interesting watching George Osbourne on newsnight just now.
Think he did quite well in wedging in the fact that it was labours fault and suggested things that conservatives have said they would do or [paraphrased] "perhaps the current government could implement in the few months, possibly years they have left"
Sounds like he doesn't think the GE will be too far away.

[M Dowding]

Calm down dears! We have such a mess to sort out and it will not be easy. The whole country is crying out for competence. Not more legislation and interfering Government but sound COMMON SENSE. I traipsed round delivering leaflets yesterday. If one person understands their content I will have made a difference. Conservatives, be bold and above all else fair. Do not seek power but concensus for true, decent values and mean it. If DC can do this then all strength to that ideal. We are fair minded and decent people. Destroy any party member who might betray that truism.

[Tony Cains]

Well done - what do you lot actually believe? You better hope that you can get a hung parliament with the LDs so you can 'compromise' over tax and implement some cuts! Otherwise, a 52% election result will simply mean that Osborne and Cameron will be stuck with Labour spending plans for the first two years - or are you lot going to be u-turning yet again! Thatch will be turning in her grave!!

[timothy moriarty]

Dear Friend:

Are you ready yet for the November 4th Elections? How about your friends, family, and neighbors?

More Americans are expected to vote this year than ever before in history, so don’t be left out! Be sure to ask everyone you know the following questions:

Are you registered to vote? If you moved recently, have you updated your voter registration?
Did you apply for an Absentee Ballot? Do you know your state may not require any reason?
Can you find your local Polling Place? Do you know it may have changed from last time?
The answers to these questions -- and all your voting needs -- can be found at www.StateDemocracy.org