The state of grassroots opinion

As reported in this morning's Independent, ConservativeHome has issued its survey of grassroots opinion this morning - on the eve of the Birmingham Conference.

Nearly all of the results are published below but here are the main findings:

• Support for David Cameron at a peak amongst the grassroots - higher than when he first became leader.
• William Hague, Eric Pickles, George Osborne, Chris Grayling and Michael Gove are the five most popular members of the shadow cabinet.
• 91% of Tory members expect the party to form the next government.
• 64% want more policy boldness.
• Only 15% of Tory members expect David Cameron's first Government to be transformational in the way that Margaret Thatcher's governments were.
• 63% believe a large reduction in taxation is needed to boost Britain's flagging economy.
• Members believe that the proceeds of a tighter public spending settlement should be shared almost equally between reduced borrowing and reduced taxation.

Polled 23rd to 25th September
1827 respondents

What comes closest to your view about the outcome of the next General Election?

• The Conservatives are heading for a large victory: 48%
• The Conservatives are heading for a small victory: 43%
• The next election will be tight and will probably result in a hung parliament: 5%
• Labour will turn things round and keep a small parliamentary majority: 1%
• Labour will turn things round and win a large parliamentary majority: 0%*

* Not one single person chose this option.

Please say which of the following two statements you MOST agree with:

• The party should now be cautious in policy announcement and protect our election-winning position: 36%
• The party should be bold in policy development and give voters a clear idea of how Conservatives will fix Britain: 64%

What do you think is the most REALISTIC expectation of a Conservative government led by David Cameron? You may pick only one option.

• It will be a government that starts to unpick the harm done by the Brown-Blair years: 46%
• It will not be a revolutionary government but it will make many worthwhile changes to Britain: 29%
• It will be a transformational government, that fixes Britain on the same scale of Margaret Thatcher's period in office: 15%
• It will be a disappointing government that changes very little: 10%

Economic questions:

Too many families and government itself need to learn to live within their means again: Agree 97%, Disagree 2%

There is a grave danger that governments will over-react to recent events and impose too much regulation on financial companies: Agree 84%, Disagree 11%

David Cameron should use his Party Conference speech to warn the British people that very tough times lie ahead: Agree 73%, Disagree 20%

The nations that increase regulation the most will stay in recession for longer: Agree 69%, Disagree 14%

George Osborne is ready to be Chancellor: Agree 68%, Disagree 16%

Britain is less well-placed to survive today's economic challenges than competitor economies: Agree 67%, Disagree 22%

Britain needs a large reduction in taxation to stimulate the flagging economy: Agree 63%, Disagree 22%

Current economic problems are related to a culture of greed within financial institutions: Agree 53%, Disagree 38%

Conservatives must support much tougher regulation of the financial sector: Agree 34%, Disagree 53%

The economic situation is now so bad that the next British government will have to raise taxes: Agree 31%, Disagree 49%

The Conservatives are now unlikely to match Labour on public spending. Please state what percentage of the money saved should be allocated to reducing borrowing and reducing taxation?

Percentage that should go to reducing borrowing: 55.8%
Percentage that should go to reducing taxation: 44.2%

There are reports that the Conservatives are thinking of delaying plans to introduce replace family taxation with higher green taxation (the revenue from green taxes would be used to fund cuts in family taxation). What is your reaction to this?

I support a delay to replacement taxes: 48%
I oppose a delay to replacement taxes: 30%

Are you satisfied with David Cameron/ Boris Johnson?

Very satisfied: 59% / 41%
Fairly satisfied: 32% / 50%
Fairly dissatisfied: 6% / 4%
Very dissatisfied: 2% / 1%

Notes:

• When David Cameron first became leader, 82% of members were satisfied and 16% were dissatisfied.  This produced the net satisfaction rating of +66%.
• On the eve of last year's Tory Conference there were slightly more members dissatisfied with him than satisfied; 49% to 48%.  A net satisfaction rating of -1%
• This year it's 91% satisfied plus 6% dissatisfied; a net rating of +83%. Higher than William Hague for the first time.

FULL SHADOW CABINET RATINGS
Satisfied minus dissatisfied (latest numbers on right)

1. William Hague +87% | +89% | +83% | +82%
2. Eric Pickles +42% | +76% | +82% | +75%
3. George Osborne +66% | +72% | +75% | +70%
4. Chris Grayling +62% | +64% | +70% | +69%
5. Michael Gove +55% | +62% | +63% | +60%
6. Alan Duncan +57% | +65% | +58% | +55%
7. Liam Fox +64% | +71% | +62% | +52%
8. Dominic Grieve N/A | N/A | +40% | +51%
9. Lord Strathclyde +51% | +55% | +52% | +50%
10. Andrew Lansley +32% | +42% | +50% | +45%
11. Philip Hammond +35% | +44% | +48% | +45%
12. Nick Herbert +44% | +45% | +49% | +44%
13. Pauline Neville-Jones +38% | +39% | +44% | +43%
14. Patrick McLoughlin +20% | +33% | +35% | +33%
15. Jeremy Hunt +26% | +30% | +31% | +33%
16. Oliver Letwin +20% | +31% | +29% | +26%
17. Owen Paterson +19% | +21% | +26% | +23%
18. David Willetts +22% | +23% | +22% | +21%
19. Andrew Mitchell +18% | +16% | +25% | +19%
20. Peter Ainsworth +20% | +24% | +21% | +18%
21. Francis Maude -9% | +15% | +18% | +17%
22. Sayeeda Warsi +27% | +20% | +16% | +11%
23. Cheryl Gillan +13% | +16% | +14% | +10%
24. Theresa May +10% | +20% | +15% | +5%
25. Theresa Villers +10% | +8% | +10% | +4%
26. David Mundell -2% | +3% | +1% | +2%
27. Caroline Spelman +30% | +32% | -7% | -8%

Comments

[Andrew Woodman]

5 out of 6 of the bottom are women I see. That means either we have a very sexist grassroots or many of these women are pretty useless.

[John Ward]

In the notes re Cameron's rating, 91% minus 6% does not equal 83%. Which of the three figures is wrong here?

[David Belchamber]

I am amazed that 68% of people polled consider that George Osborne is ready to be chancellor - based on his pronouncements on the economy up until now. I would happily agree with that rating as a member of the shadow cabinet but not as would-be chancellor.

Let us hope that he will prove me utterly wrong with a superb speech at the conference.

[Tim Montgomerie]

John: It's minus 8% because there are 6% fairly dissatisfied and 2% very dissatisfied.

[David Cooper]

Following up on Andrew's comment above, last summer the Associations in Wolverhampton and South Staffs virtually packed out the Molineux dining suite by inviting Boris Johnson as main speaker. This year's corresponding event was cancelled due to lack of interest. The speaker was to have been Caroline Spelman. Draw your own conclusions.

[DavidRHayes]

Well Andrew the older figures had female members higher, Caroline Spelman suffered the biggest drop after nanny gate, she'll have to work hard if she's to recover.

In my opinion the most interesting part will be the "don't know" from those figures, I'm guessing they'll be quite high, as to be honest I haven't heard much from many of latter part of the table, I remember Sayeeda Warsi really went up in popularity when she wrote an article a while ago.

I guess we just want to know what is on the Shadow Cabinet's mind.

[Patsy Sergeant]

Andrew Woodman @ 9.07 above - I am a woman!, but PLEASE let us get back into government FIRST then have discussions about the percentage of female MP's. YES???

[Mark Hudson]

I am not surprised by the rankings with the continued exception of Gideon Osborne, whom no-one I know in the City takes remotely seriously. One of our Chief Economists actually had to bite his lip laughing he was so bad in one recent economic interview.

The only I can't quite grasp is Chris Grayling. He rather reminds me of a long-serving provincial bank manager with no chance of promotion. Worthy, dull delivery and a basic grasp of his brief.

[R.Baker.]

No mention of the EU or the Conservative party and its % of eurosceptics then?

Strange that, eh?

[Vincent Wall]

Glad to see members wanting a end to the green taxes policy.

[Mary O'Boyle]

The order of ratings is in my view pretty accurate. The Ladies lingering at the bottom are there because their TV presence shows them to be old tories with posh accents. They may be capable ladies but TV shapes viewers likes and dislikes. E.G I loath Francis Maude and Oliver Letwin for Different reasons, would never vote for them although I know Letwin at least is very clever. We need politicians who know what real life is about, who genuinely want to make a better country and world not for their own well=being and promotion.

[Iain]

Mark Hudson, I rate Chris Grayling quite highly, he seems to be one of the few Conservative Shadow Ministers who is able to take the attack to Labour, even if he got clobbered last night on Any Questions trying to defend Conservative economic policy, which is an impossible task for anybody.

George Osborne, well, I too am mystified how he manages to achieve the rating he does , I can only assume he has his Shadow Treasury team busily employed voting for him. But the despair I feel over Conservative economic policy is such that I am actively considering the only way to pull it back would be to beg Ken Clarke to take up the position of Shadow Chancellor, for though I cannot abide his EU fanaticism, he at least put in place the economic recovery Brown has blown, which would trump any card Labour could play over competence.

[tory warren]

George Osbourne is treated as pretty much of an irrelevance in the city really he has said very little of any substance for people to get their teeth into. All we've seen is a lot of rhetoric, the inheritance tax proposal which doesn't effect the markets and then the nondom thing which has perplexed a load of my hedge fund clients.

I think Hammond is probably more respected in the city from those I've spoken too and should become shadow chancellor with Osbourne becoming party Chairman.

[tory warren]

George Osbourne is treated as pretty much of an irrelevance in the city really he has said very little of any substance for people to get their teeth into. All we've seen is a lot of rhetoric, the inheritance tax proposal which doesn't effect the markets and then the nondom thing which has perplexed a load of my hedge fund clients.

I think Hammond is probably more respected in the city from those I've spoken too and should become shadow chancellor with Osbourne becoming party Chairman.

[Conand]

Mark Hudson & Iain, I spent some time with Chris Grayling during the local election campaign. I was very impressed. I heard him speak on the economy and he was very very sound.
He tends to go right to the heart of any issue in a way I like. He's also really friendly except towards Lab/Lib.

[Michael]

I think Chris Grayling is popular because he is obviously very hard working and his attacks on labour's many failings are better researched, more precise and effective than most. I hope he gets a big job if we win the next GE.
We need more Chris Graylings

[Michael]

The city takes G Osborne very seriously for obvious reasons. I don't know what parallel universe the poster above frequents but it certainly isn't the "city" I know!

I'd like to see more media appearances from Nick Herbert who is excellent on his feet

[sbjme19]

They were presumably talking about someone called George Osbourne (not sure who he is) rather than George Osborne.

[AS]

The 5 of the 6 least popular members of the (Shadow) Cabinet are all female. Interesting...

[Ben Gadsby]

Let me be blunt in explaining why there are 5 women in the bottom.

Caroline Spelman may well have screwed up on expenses; Theresa May doesn't come across too well in the media; Theresa Villers is useless; and she like Baroness Warsai and Cheryl Gillian don't appear in the mainstream media enough.

[Malloch]

An interesting analysis of these figures would be to compare them with proportions of comments of ConservativeHome - I predict you would see a very large disparity in the comments saying they like DC and GO and those who don't.

[James Lees]

I guess it is a good idea not to compare Sadow Cabinet members popularity directly with that of Cameron. I still think Cameron would come out top but might be interesting to know. It would also be interesting to know the 'don't knows'?

Also did anyone else spot that there is no discussion of imigration in the main hall at the conference? Is it not important or would discussion be off message?

Lastly, good article in the Spectator about the lack of thinking, independent MPs and 'big beasts'. Would suggest our Candidates department stops looking for social workers and focuses on quality. Enjoy THE Conference.

[Patsy Sergeant]

I can't work out what you are getting at 'Malloch'?

[torygirl]

Would Hammond be a better shadow chancellor? He seems more experienced and authoritative.

[R.Baker.]

We wont speak about immigration because the very word invites criticism of our silence on all things regarding the European Union.
We will have to discuss both immigration and the EU more and more as each election looms.I hope we can be convincing next time out.

[Cleethorpes Rock]

Where have the rest of the results gone?

I'm thinking about the questions asking who would we most/least like to face as Labour leader and the question on the US presidential election too.

[tory warren]

Michael at 1220, there is a big difference between taking notice of Osborne because he is likely to be the next chancellor and has announced some minor policies and other themes like sharing the proceedes of growth which people in the city don't really understand given a recession and thinking he has nothing useful to say on the current economic crisis.

[David]

What the hell. The EU is the real government and that will not be change by the present management of the party.

[ray douglas]

Any chance of opposing the Gay agenda,the waste of taxpayers money that is given to the NO OUTSIDERS group that seeks to get GAY story books into our schools?Will Dave really stand up tp the liberal-lefties and support marriage?Will we see a war on the PC social services and the council non jobs?

[passing leftie]

Not a single question on the EU? What a surprise. You don't want to show the fissures through the heart of the Tory party.