The need to resist complacency at Conference

In today's Telegraph, Iain Martin notes the depressed state of Labour's Manchester conference this week, and contrasts it with the temptation among Conservatives to celebrate their first conference ahead in the polls for 21 years.

"Next week, the task of the Tory party is to keep its feet firmly planted on Planet Earth. If the leadership's staff can arrange for a ban on the sale of champagne within the conference perimeter, they should issue the order without delay. In this age of the mobile camera-phone, images of gangs of young Tories swigging Pol Roger will find their way to the picture desks of tabloid newspapers. The tabloids will probably provide the champagne, given half a chance.

"This is not a time for wild Tory partying: there is a lot to be serious about, to quote the Prime Minister. Behaviour that suggests excessive frivolity, or a lack of seriousness, in the face of dramatically altered political conditions will be punished by voters. They want to hear what the Conservatives have to say about the condition of our times, and expect sober answers.

"To that end, David Cameron has cancelled an event planned for Sunday afternoon to celebrate recent successes in London and beyond. Instead, there will now be an emergency debate on the economy, in which both Cameron and his shadow chancellor, George Osborne, will speak."

Yesterday's opinion poll showing a lead of only 11% will disappoint activists, but may help combat the complacency that Iain Martin identifies as being so dangerous.

Comments

[anonymous]

Young (CF) Tories take note!!!

Time to grow up,I think any CFer caught in such a way should have thier membership cancelled.

[Sally Roberts]

I cannot imagine we would be so stupid as to go around swigging champagne and behaving in an openly triumphalist manner! If I see anyone doing so I will personally shoot them ;-)
Seriously though - we could throw everything away we have been building up by complacency and hubris! On the other hand we must be bold about what we stand for and what we are going to achieve under the first term of Conservative Government.

[Sally Roberts]

"The tabloids will probably provide the champagne, given half a chance."

Also a warning to the young and naive - the media will stoop at nothing to get a story which could play into the hands of those who would like to see us brought down! Please people - enjoy your drinks and parties but please behave and don't do anything silly!

[Letters From A Tory]

Errr, hasn't everyone forgotten the slight problem of all the fringe events serving free wine for four days in a row? Does anyone seriously think they can stop the "young and naive" from getting hammered?

Good move on the new session, though. Will go down well.

[Sally Roberts]

"Does anyone seriously think they can stop the "young and naive" from getting hammered?"

No.....but we can warn people that polite as you should always be to journos and other media, especially if you get offered a drink or two - they are NOT your "New Best Friend"!!

[GB£.com]

Indeed. Last year, trailing in the polls, facing likely defeat if an Autumn election was called, the party had it all to win. This year, it is yours to lose. Please don't mess up, as the public is not yet convinced that Cameron is the right captain to steer the country out of decline.

[Be Fair]

It's easy to blame the young and niave - I have seen members of all ages misbehave at Conference

[Ken Stevens]

Beware agents provocateurs and impostors seeking to undermine image!

Beware those whose common sense & wariness is excreted in direct proportion to amount of alcohol consumed!

[Oscar Miller]

As I posted on the thread about the YouGov poll I think this year's conference will be even more pivotal than last year's. It could be the moment Brown really does revive (helped by his massive media backers) and Dave is dismissed as a novice and a vacuous celeb. Or it could be the moment when DC shakes off youthful frivolity and emerges as a fully fledged leader of formidable talent. Current conditions also call for a restrained, serious and considered approach telling the country what the Conservatives will deliver. But that doesn't mean it can't be fun and upbeat too. Unlike the gloomy Labour affair with all its barely concealed backstabbing, anonymous leaks and briefing and general bad odour. I'm all for a serious conference but one that's fragrant with hope and liveliness too ...

[passing leftie]

Bring back Tory Boy!

[Malcolm Dunn]

I won't be going this year sadly. Last year's conference was excellent,probably born out of desperation there was a palpable sense of unity and determination. Issues that could have upset the apple cart (EU and Grammar Schools) were debated in a sober and reasonable way and despite the best efforts of people like Michael Crick we presented ourselves to the outside world as decent,sensible people.Which is, of course, what the overwhelming majority of us are.
If we can recreate the spirit of last year we'll have a great conference but if there is any hint of smugness or triumphalism then the media will seize on it and we all will pay the price. The British people do not like to be taken for granted.
I doubt that Cameron or Osborne will be feeling smug in any way, the prospect of winning power in these circumstances must be truly frightening.

[Dorian the Barbarian]

There will be every temptation and provocation to do a Kinnock.

Expect references to Bullington Berties and Hooray Henries aplenty and assorted provocationalists attired in items from the toff dressing up box. Popular this season will be the Fat Cat City Banker puffing on a hedge fund.

I shall, as usual, be in morning coat until luncheon followed by lounge suit climaxing with white tie and a jeroboam of gin and Tizer.

[B]

Worth noting guido's post from tuesday too (http://www.order-order.com/2008/09/gordon-lives-cchq-celebrates.html) that the media narrative has been going our way for some time now and that journos are itching for an excuse to have a pop at us.

[Walaa]

Why the dome and glum. We did not get to 40% in the polls by accident. It took hard work and sheer determination to get here. Yes, Labour’s demise might have helped some. But we have been working hard since May 2005 and let no one take that away or tell us otherwise. Of course we are not there yet, but we have it in us to get there, and we will.

So it’s okay to have some fun and enjoy ourselves with friends and comrades. After all, we came a long way since 05 and we have a lot to celebrate and be grateful for. Successes like the local elections 2006, 2007 and 2008 and the London Mayor elections are something to be proud about and rejoice together. And let’s not forget the fanfabulous Crewe & Nantwich by- election.

But having said that we must be wise, vigilant and look after each other, we’ll drink but sensibly, talk but carefully. We’ll enjoy ourselves and soak the fabulous conference atmosphere, get pumped up excited and motivated and push that 40% to 50% and beyond.

[RichardJ]

"So it’s okay to have some fun and enjoy ourselves with friends and comrades."

Nobody is saying you shouldn't, I suspect what the above posters are concerned about are people who are obnoxiously arrogant and assume it's in the bag. While such people are extremely few in number, even when on the booze, it only takes one loose tongue in front of a journalist to result in an "arrogant Tories" headline.

[David Parker]

The one thing Cameron cannot afford to be is secretive about future policies. So long as these are clearly and boldly explained it will not matter if Labour subsequently try to steal them, indeed this would be tantamount to an admission that these policies were superior to theirs. In fact, the most important policies, such as security of power supplies, improvement of the NHS, the de-centralising of powers, our future relationship with Europe, to name but a few, are all long term projects, none of which could be completed within the time remaining to the present Government.

If Labour did adopt some of the Conservative policy ideas Cameron has an excellent argument that they should have done so long ago, but did not have the vision or the competence to create or implement them.

Any danger of a disorganised and disunited Labour party stealing Tory ideas pales into insignificance when compared with the danger of Cameron laying himself open to the criticism that he is being secretive because the party does not have complete and definitive plans covering all major policy issues.

There is a slight sense of unease, even among some of the party faithful, that Osborne may be out of his depth, that Hague is ambivalent about the EU, that Cameron is too much influenced the political, as opposed to the practical and economic implications of some so called "green" issues.

Any attempt to avoid or marginalise discussion of any major, but potentially contentious issue of policy, could create a loss of condidence and cause major damage to the party.

[grumpy old man]

Sally, on the strength of this morning's postings, you could well be the European answer to Sarah Palin.:)).
There will be a section of the press who will arrive with the stories of Tory excess already written and lacking only the supporting photo. They should be ignored. Instead of allowing bored and boorish reporters to wonder around writing shock-horror non-stories about human frailty, how about giving them the rich meat of our policies and ideals? The campaign for 2010 has already started in Manchester. In Birmingham we must offer a clear alternative to the La-La-Labour Party. All GB has offered is the usual socialist cake of incompetence, inability to govern and cowardice, iced with the envy of those who achieve. I'd like to see a program which is based round equality of opportunity, not equality of outcome. I'd like to see a Party which publicly recognises that it is the servant, not the master, of the electorate; that doesn't "listen", then continues to do what it likes, but listens, considers, then acts. Lets hear from the only mainstream Party whose members are proud to be British, and place great value on those who fought and died for our sovereign nation. Let us make clear to both the UK and the watching world that the Tories will put the UK first, and that while we are prepared to be first among equals, we will not surrender our hard-won independence lightly. This is the time to stop speaking to ourselves, to cease to be over-obsessed with "Image", and other chimera of spin. Lets go for the name of the "Real Party". Let our canvassers knock on doors being able to talk to a public disenchanted by the glamours of the Socialists with the message "what you see is what you get", that the Conservatives "Do What It Says on the Manifesto"
Most of all, make it clear to the electorate just what a mess 13 years of Socialist destruction has left the UK in, and how long it will take to sort things out. If our leadership is not prepared to trust the Nation on this one single issue that unites every subject of the Monarchy, then there is little hope for us or our children.

[Richard Calhoun]

Certainly any hint of triumphalism would be totally counter productive.

There is no way this is a done deal, we are in uncharted political and financial waters and David Cameron needs to be serious and concentrate on the issues that are so concerning people..... namely tax and jobs

No rubbishing the Brown,( he's pretty good at that ) but a serious approach with some policies as to how the Tories would deal with the current serious financial mess we find ourselves in, both domestically and globally.

[Andrew Carr]

Sally Roberts, 09.10,

What do we stand for and what will we do in the first term of a Conservative Government?

Regarding triumphalism, it shouldn't even have to be a warning but just in case the lunatics decide to gulp the lunatic soup in vaccuous celebration at ANY time, think - and reprise - what do we stand for and what would we do, decidedly and dynamically, to sort out the bagatelle of so far endemic problems in this consequently delapidating country?

Immigration, transport, law and order, drugs, litter, the Police (and respect for), housing, sport and yes, the poor (so let down by this mendacious, ruinous, moutebank and charlatan Labour shower. I REFUSE to afford them the respectful title of Government).

Oh - and then there's the economy and the grave area of foreign affairs. What do we stand for and what would we do to 'unpatronisingly' assist (as a sovereign, NON jingoistic state) with the problems of the Middle East, especially Iran. How would we approach Russia and/or our pathetic relationship with the U.S.A.?

What IS our stance on education? Is it the restoration of Grammar Schools, 'leave alone' expediently and/or carry on Labour's plans with some accountability thrown into the mix?

Quite.

Well, that should keep corks firmly in bottles. It's only 13 working months away, if indeed we are to be accorded power by an electorate finally waking up to the fact the standard of our politicians (and their convictions and courage, apart from their wit and intellectual application to the affairs of state) is in alarming decline.

Westminster is collectively self delusional - and inept.

Amen.

Andrew Carr

NB - All this sobering diagnosis ignores the critical areas of Health and Defence (and their cost versus 'productivity').........no doubt Sally Roberts knows what is to be done?!

[Tabman]

Grumpy Old Man - "Lets go for the name of the "Real Party"."

How about the New Party?

[narcissa]

Does anyone else remember the atmosphere and excitement of the 1978 Conference, the last one before the 1979 election? We were so full of ideas, energy and enthusiasm that the champagne hardly made any difference. We knew that Labour had made such a mess of everything that we were likely to win, but it wasn't a certainty so we took nothing for granted. We had a new leader whose vision and determination were inspiring and, we knew we had the right ideas about liberty, independence and prosperity. We weren't complacent, just energised by the prospect ahead of us. There is nothing quite like the last conference in opposition, and no one who attends this year's event will ever forget it.

[David_at_Home]

I wonder if you understand, my Tory Friends, that you are popular ONLY because David Cameron is not Gordon Brown, the Tories are not New Labour and it is obvious now, even to the most complacent, that we are heading for a deep recession in spite of the oft repeated boast that Gordon Brown was the best Chancellor of the Exchequer since King Alfred burnt the cakes?

Fundamentally the electorate does not like politicians and many believe that politicians are a sleazy lot, in politics only for themselves and for what they can get out of it. This may or may not be true but it is how a sizable proportion of “ordinary people” think.

Consequently the polls are very volatile. Labour would have a mountain to climb to be re-elected in the teeth of a recession but it is not “in the bag” for the Tories by any means. The voters could easily switch to the LibDems (Calamity Clegg he may be but he appeals to women whilst Vince Cable comes across as well informed and sensible), the Greens (the fruits of a quarter of a century of green propaganda in our state schools and the Greens are the only party not seen as sleazy), the BNP (as the depression bites and unemployment rises, immigration will become a huge issue) or UKIP (Nigel Farage, the ace communicator, dispenses common sense in a straightforward manner and UKIP will become prominent in the EU Parliament elections next spring).

If the Tories are to be sure of winning the next election their leadership must be seen as a government in waiting rather than a team running a publicity campaign aimed at selling soft soap.

[Henry Mayhew - Speaking truth to toffs]

Forget what? The 'ideas, energy and enthusiasm' you will be bringing. I was a part of that FCS once. It got closed down by the Tory mind, just for being 'Marxists' and hellraisers. I doubt you will be seeing much 'ideas, energy and enthusiasm' next week. Power to the people.

[GB£.com]

I would certainly get Cameron (I know is s/b Osborne but he has no gravitas whatsoever) to highlight that global cooperation is the only way to combat the global credit crisis, so can we afford to keep a leader who is held is such low estimation that the key global economic architect of recovery, the US Treasury Secretary has completely refused to even meet him.

This is complete humiliation for Brown. Flying over to the US in his near-empty plane, just to be told that no-one wanted to speak to him.

Jonah Brown. So unlucky that people don't even want to be on the same flight as him and world economic leaders don't want to be in the same room as him.

[GB£.com]

..oh if Cameron or Osborne could just get a sneaky 5 mins with Paulson before conference. That would be priceless.

[Old Hack]

Danny Finkelstein over at Comment Central has a point. It should be an instantly sackable offence for any CCHQ staffer or Aide to be drunk, particularly if they start running their mouths off.

[Praguetory]

A late night fringe debate - "Lap-dancing clubs - who does it exploit?" will be held at the Rocket Club on Monday night... maybe...

[Treacle]

Oh give it a rest, If the media decide they want a picutre of Tories arguing or boozing they will manufacture one - they always do - so stop harping on about how representatives should behave at our own conference.

The MP's and reply speakers are our guests, not we theirs, and they should go easy on turning our conference into just another media opportunity, full of lobbyists and wonks with ordinary members squeezed out.

As for Finkelstein - never was a tory, still isn't and his early experiences of SDP conferences will have been confined to a phone box or two... no advice required from him then.

[Mark Hudson]

Perhaps the reason that there's no room for complacency is that the Conservative Party's membership is rapidly dwindling as it is for all parties. If anyone thinks that there's genuine enthusisasm for the Cameron project outside certain parts of London - as opposed to a profound loathing for the Government - then they need a trip to The Priory.

[RichardJ]

"How about the New Party?"

They already exist - www.newparty.co.uk/

[Malcolm Dunn]

Mark Hudson perhaps if you went to Conference you'd realise how wrong you are.

[Mark Hudson]

First, Malcolm, I suggest that you check out the Electoral Commission website for the facts on the subject. Second, having experienced the undoubted pleasures of Bournemouth and the complete abomination that is Blackpool over the space of 15 years, I am getting too old to attend such events unless there's a guarantee of a 5-star hotel thanks very much.

[YourNameHere]

I used to love going to conference years ago - 1998-2001; I can't imagine what it must be like these days when the Tories are actually popular. Bizarre.

[Nigel Rathbone]

GB£.com @ 12.41 and 12.42

Paulson is an idiot who does not have the first idea how to address the current financial problems. Anatole Kaletsky's piece in The Times today is very interesting reading. If he has, as alleged, refused to meet the British PM (irrespective of who the PM is), in the current circumstances it merely shows Paulson up as petty and clueless. Cameron and Osborne would be well advised to steer clear of him.

Incidentally, with a name like GB£ I'm surprised you're not more of a fan of Gordon - he is after all the man who saved the pound. If the Tories had won in 1997 and Clarke continued as Chancellor we'd have been signed up to the Euro years ago.

[London Tory]

Perhaps Mr Finkelstein could provide a sobering lecture at the conference fringe next week, after all, he does have personal experience of losing us a safe seat.

[GB£.com]

"If the Tories had won in 1997 and Clarke continued as Chancellor we'd have been signed up to the Euro years ago."

I agree Nigel, and I have a horrible feeling the Cameron will finish the job.

[Sally Roberts]

"Sally, on the strength of this morning's postings, you could well be the European answer to Sarah Palin.:))."

Grumps you have just made my day! I have just come back from a couple of hours helping at a by election up in Hampstead and have only just seen this - hence my delay in responding - but thank you! It makes some of the miserable comments I sometimes get from people pale into insignificance! :-)

[Sally Roberts]

" I shall, as usual, be in morning coat until luncheon followed by lounge suit climaxing with white tie and a jeroboam of gin and Tizer."

Well you'll be nice and easy to find in the crowd then, Dorian! ;-)

[Annabel Herriott]

If you lot want to do something useful, get to Brum on Saturday morning, and join Maggie Throup in a few hours of leafletting/canvassing for Solihull. Solihull HQ 2 Manor Road Solihull UK. Morning session 10 - 12 might be a bit tight, but 1.30pm at 2,Manor Road is do-able. I shall certainly be there, not least because Maggie knocked Nulabs maj down to 1501 in Colne Valley 2005, which was no mean feat! Now get over there, and help her to win for us in Solihull. Then you can have a drink to reward yourselves after some hard work!!! Just dont get hammered, and no running off at the mouth to the media, no matter how much you would love to see yourselves on the box!!!!!!!!!!!!!
We may not have a mountain to climb, but we sure as hell have a decent sized hill. No Hubris please, lets leave that to the lefties.

[Anne]

You will never stop people getting pissed at conference, nor should you. I was there as media last year and it was the white middle aged men who were most prone to getting drunk and slagging off the Cameron project.

[antitrust]

Whatever. Perhaps some party members will start to think about what they actually want as opposed to what they are told to do.

[Roberts]

election results in Camden (and more generally in North London), Linda Chung is the new councillor for Hampstead Town ward:

Liberal Democrat 1,242 (44.1%, +11.5%)
Conservative 1,114 (39.6%, -6.9%)
Labour 289 (10.3%, -1.0%)
Green 140 (5.0%, -3.3%)
BNP 29 (1.0%, +1.0%)

Majority: 128 (4.5%)
Swing: 9.2% Conservative to Liberal Democrat

[Jane Gould]

...& some of us are cycling to Conference in Birmingham to raise money for charity. Sorry about the shameless plug - do scroll down and skip this if it offends!
REGAIN aims to improve quality of life for tetraplegics injured through competitive sport.
we'll be turning up at the REP opposite the ICC at about 5.30 - 6pm tomorrow if all goes to plan. Will probably need cheering on by then!
so perhaps the price of one of these (largely mythical) bottles or even glasses of champagne could be donated to REGAIN? www.justgiving.com/ggbb2008

[Roy Seeman]

I agree we must not be complacent, and must remember the other parties will do all in their power to discredit us. Now is the time for a steady ship, so that we can all enjoy the rewards of getting through troubled waters.

[Votedave]

""If the Tories had won in 1997 and Clarke continued as Chancellor we'd have been signed up to the Euro years ago."

I agree Nigel, and I have a horrible feeling the Cameron will finish the job."

What makes you think for one moment that David Cameron will sign up to the euro? He is vehemently opposed to it.