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This makes better reading than ComRes. The latter pollsters track record is abysmal and I cannot understand why they are still in business. Oh? Are they used in Government survey work? Yes!

I think it will be a lot harder to gain LibDem seats that national swing would suggest. LibDem MPs often build up strong personal votes and can also squeeze Labour support.

Conservative resources would be much better used targeting white working class Labour constituencies.

Very good pick up on this poll, Editor. ICM apparently have gloom for Labour to. Haven't found it yet but backs up my suspicions of Com Res!

Further to this morning's thread, this should help CCHQ decide where to target and where not to.

Note! Not one of the Cornish Seats on the list.
I would expect only two seats to come conservative -SE Cornwall and North Cornwall -because both ppcs are working their socks off, with happy teams.
Truro and Falmouth is a disgrace with a useless ppc who does not have an effective and happy team with her. There is always lack of support and the inevitable cancellations. We should win here, but most of us are aware of its history, and why more conservative like minded people are out of the party. Truro and Falmouth conservatives had the right bloke to win this seat, but he was nobbled out by a sychophantic selection.
As for the other three seats I expect them to stay Liberal Democrat.

Predictions of Con gains of Lib Dem seats Sutton & Cheam and Eastleigh v encouraging. But still too many (e.g. notably Devon North and Oxford West where we have excellent candidates too) Lib Dem seats predicted Lib Dem hold. So obviously still some work to do on Lib Dem front. We could counter Nick Clegg's tax ideas by pointing out 1) we are more likely to reduce taxes and the size of the State than Labour but 2) are more likely to form next Government, and voting to keep Lib Dems in such seats could run the risk of keeping a Lab government.

As for Labour seats, great to see predicted gains in places like Stevenage and Harlow (latter V marginal!), as well as even in northern areas, e.g. in NE where a 14% swing is predicted which would enable such seats as Sunderland Central, Bishop Auckland and Darlington (unseating Alan Milburn) to be won!

As to who would make the best PM, DC gets 42% of all voters (with GB 19% and Nick Clegg 8%) .

But only 28% of Lib Dem voters think Calamity would make the best PM (cp to 86% of Cons for DC and 61% Lab for GB) . The polling was done before Mr Clegg’s tax idea, so the figure may be even lower now if most Lib Dem voters are high tax and spend as most of their members are.

Doesn't that fact that you are highlighting the Con-LD battles suggest that much of the Conservative establishment is too fixated on the LibDems and not on the real target ie Labour?

A list of the predicted Conservative gains from Labour such as Ashfield, Bishop Auckland, Sunderland Central and Wolverhampton NE should get 'the juices flowing' even more.

Hi Another Richard,

The only reason I highlighted the LD/ Con marginals was that we know that Labour is very unpopular and we'll do well in Con/ Lab marginals. I thought the state of play between the two opposition parties was even more interesting.

I hope this explanation helps.


Thanks but I would say that it is often not known how unpopular Labour has become in northern England and Wales - notice Philip's comment 'even in northern areas'.

There is still unfortunately a view that the Conservatives cannot win in northern England. A view partly caused by the BBC's 'no Conservative councillors in Liverpool, Manchester and Newcastle' line.

In that case Richard you'll like these pages:




That report is a psephologist's wet dream!

Rather heartening to see all those CON GAINs. Sunderland Central and Blackburn et al!

I dont know how well known she is in the party but Brenda Porter is working her socks off in Southport.

I think forget the swing, she's working that hard that it seems the press are falling over themselves to give her every inch column they can get away with to help her oust our Liberal Democrat MP. They certainly did last month when David Cameron came to visit.

She has her own website/blog (www.tellbrenda.com)and without a doubt she seems to know every part of her seat, though this probably comes from being a Councillor as well.

Don`t know anything about the rest, but I think many voters in Richmond Park will have been put off by candidate Zac Goldsmith`s support (as an "expert" witness) for the Greenpeace lawbreakers at the recent trial. He is reported to be an adviser to David Cameron on such matters.

I looks as if he, and Mr. Cameron,continue to favour the building of costly and useless wind turbines all over our countryside and around our coasts, and accept the EU`s ruling that coal fired power stations must be shut down, when we should be building more.

Isn`t this Libdem policy? If these idiots get their way, we may end up the greenest country in the world, but all the lights will go out.

"The BBC's line re no Conservative Councillors !" No just facts ! Newcastle, Liverpool etc just have no Tory councillors. You can't blame the BBC for everything !!

Edward Huxley - have you ever BEEN to Richmond Park, let alone campaigned there? They are exactly the sort of voters who will love Zak's green-ness!! The Limp Dims locally are (and should be) very worried.

Precisely Sally, so it seems that in Richmond Park there will be a contest to see who is the greener candidate. Some choice!

Living in nearby Runnymede & Weybridge I do know Richmond Park and agree with you about the preponderance there of the Libdims.

Perhaps an opportunity for UKIP here, who knows?


The boroughs of Liverpool, Manchester and Newcastle are only small parts of the north and for the Conservatives are an electoral irrelevance.

There was a Conservative majority of over 100 in 1987 without there being any Conservative MPs there. The same would happen in 2010.

Far more politically important are places like Bolton, Bradford and Wirral but they tend to be ignored by the BBC.

The BBC's line re no Conservative Councillors !" No just facts ! Newcastle, Liverpool etc just have no Tory councillors. You can't blame the BBC for everything !!

True, except they always seem to disregard the 31 (yes, 31!) Tory councillors just down the road in North Tyneside. Our Shadow Cabinet need to bring that out of the bag every time this line appears in interviews.

Solihull? Currently CON? CON hold?

Didn't we throw it away to the LDs in 2005?

Hardly inspires confidence in the result!

Interesting " Liverpool, Manchester and Newcastle are an irrelevance to the Conservatives " Nuff said !!!

A correction to the intro quote which should say that this poll gives a good indication into the result of a GE if it had been held 2 months ago when polling was conducted and not as it says if a GE were held now . The latest polls would clearly give a different result with a better LibDem performance , polls after the Labour and Conservative conferences will probably give a different result again .
Nevertheless this is a very useful analysis with much important information .


Solihill is a notional Conservative seat now because of boundary changes.


I said that Liverpool, Manchester and Newcastle are an ELECTORAL irrelevance for the Conservatives. So I would appreciate it if you wouldn't lie about what I had written.

On the issue of the North - Carlisle (Lab since 1964) is there for the taking. There have been boundary changes that favour the Conservatives and the local population are sick and tired of NuLab. But the Conservative PPC is invisible. In the meantime the sitting Lab MP (total lobby fodder) gets his mugshot in the local press several times a week. He is also regularly pulling the "I warned Gordon" stunt. Someone needs to wake up.

Could't disagree with voice of doom more. Candidate in Carlisle has built up the best profile in years - as the local association were allowed to pick early. Leaflets go out at regular intervals (I know, I have the blisters to prove it). Media profile is regular. When David Cameron vistied the other week for example the weekly paper devoted two full pages to it. PPC articles appeared this week and last week as well. Sadly the local paper does not print even one tenth of the press releases the candidate undertakes. I know the MP (Eric Martlew) has a higher profile but he has several staff working for him to do his releases for him. Council results are also showing a strong swing to the Conservatives.
If Voice of Doom would like to help deliver some leaflets please feel free to contact the Party office. New volunteers to add to existing helpers would always be welcome.

great for the party.

however, many of our cands expected this to be their trial run. it gives them maybe 10 years max of a career then being dumped when the swing is the other way, whereas in other circs, they could have expected to lose the first seat, then gain a safe tory one thereafter in eg 2014.

result? disastrous at an individual level for people fighting what they thought were no hopers and the loss of their potential 30 year career.

This fieldwork is almost two months old.

A lot has happened since then!

"result? disastrous at an individual level for people fighting what they thought were no hopers and the loss of their potential 30 year career. "

Weird. If any of them are any good surely they'd have a chance to establish themselves in that time? If they don't want to get elected now they have a simple choice - resign as PPCs and hope to get a no hoper in 2014 when it'll be more about trying to keep as much of 2010's gains than about winning many new seats. Then get a safe seat in 2018 which you can idly keep warm until retirement. Just the sort of chap everyone really could do with as an MP - standing up for the ideal of small government by doing as little as possible!

Potentially rather more disastrous for the country and party if it means that a lot of idiots who were expected to do their "trial run" and then disappear get elected unexpectedly (cf 1997) and end up hanging on for a decade. This can of course be avoided by making sure that we don't have any idiot candidates even in unlikely seats.

Ah - I see! Thanks "Another Richard".

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