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Whilst I am happy that this looks like we will win our seat here in the East Mids (well for the purposes of this poll) the important thing for us all to remember is that we are 18 months out and a lot might change.
We should all be pleased by this poll but give it only passing interest. Much more important that we just carry on working hard locally, getting the literature out and getting out speaking to people!

What's happening in Cumbria?!

I blame David Mclean.

Seems pretty good to me across the board. I remember the gloom of one year ago. Any Conservative would have killed for these numbers then.

Without naming them I would like to give some credit to the excellent agents we have in the West Midlands.

In Cumbria there was an above-average swing to us in 2001, probably owing to foot and mouth. Looks as though things are getting back to parity there.

Can I point out that at PH the link to the non-urban West Midlands links to the urban Midlands pdf?

The NE swings are fabulous!

Cumbria is already strongly Conservative, but 6.5% swing is probably enough to bring across Copeland, Workington etc (some of the few Cumbrian Labour seats).

I agree with Scampi. 14% IN THE NORTH EAST -outside of Scotland's central belt, the North East is Labour's Heartland.

The Conservatives will not just take Tynemouth, Middlesbrough East and Stockton South, but DARLINGTON (bye, Milburn) and SUNDERLAND CENTRAL too -- and maybe even a few other previously safe Labour seats. Anyone for BISHOP AUCKLAND?


Hmmm, well I wouldn't start jumping up and down too much yet, remember this is just one poll. Whilst I fully expect us to win the next GE with a significant majority, the likes of Darlington, Copeland and Bishop Aukland are really a far of dream.

More support for north of the wash-severn line please CCHQ

Could the big swing in the otherwise Labour stronghold of the North East, be down, in part anyway, to Broon and Darling being Scottish?
North Easterners, I know, tend to dislike the Scots (perhaps unfairly ahem!) due to historical regional predjudices. Not to mention Broon pushed out their bonnie lad Bliar?

I don't think that's too uppermost in most people's thoughts right now 'Just a Thought'. Besides the Labour voters tend to be much more clannish in places like that; the 'he's one of us' mentality (us=on the workers' side)

May we have an idea of what constitutes Welsh and Scottish marginals. In terms of Scotland I can only see three constituencies where this will actually help us (East Ren, Dumfries & Galloway, Edinburgh SW) as all our other targets are against Lib Dems/SNP

And where has your humble narrator bet on a Labour hold?

Burton, right in the middle of the middle of the Midlands.

(sees cash flying out the window....)

They are swinging to the Tories for one reason, because there is a perception that their is no one else to vote for.
Hopefully a nationalist party that puts England first will make headway.
Without a doubt all big three parties will sell the English out.

I don't think you can really claim that anyone would 'sell the English out' A Ellis.

This kind of rhetoric appears to be just the sort of divisive and misguided notions that drags people off to the political extremities
I want to see a One Nation Government serving One Nation and I cannot or have not seen any way in which the 'English have been sold out' by any government - particularly seeing as the highest level of public funding in the UK goes to London first (FYI, Scotland is third)

Leave the division to the socialists!

No break through in Cornwall. The Liberal Democrats are estimated to retain all except Newquay and St Austell.
Truro should go tory, but the association is fluffing things badly. Backsides need to be kicked! Former tories are going to put up their own candidates which will ensure official tory ppcs cannot win.
Dave Cameron needs to win Cornwall if he wishes to have a good majority- as days go by, this on the ground seems unlikely.

I am more worried about east Anglia, where we have lost council seats to the LibDems and even when we retained those seats, there has been large swings away from us to LibDems.

Here, I have an issue with some of the Conservative led councils. For example, Essex countty council is seen as arrogant and patronising - which does not bode well in places like Chelmsford.

"More support for north of the wash-severn line please CCHQ"

Tim Fell - have a look at the work Campaign North has been doing!

These results look great (if repeated at a real GE). What I find slightly worrying is a propensity on here for people who seem to believe that every silver lining has a cloud!! Some seem to get their kicks out of slagging off various PPCs or associations - most of which are made up of volunteers and give up a lot of their own valuable time. So if you are not in an association stop carping and wasting your time on here and get out there and do something useful! (You know who you are!)

Has Don Tully been selected for anywhere yet?

London is interesting, because it does contain many high swing seats, mainly (but not always) in the suburbs, but it also contains seats which have a solid Labour vote which stand out quite sharply on the map of swing - even in 1983 and 1987.

The West Midlands has been looking more promising than I realised.

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