Another pointless mid-conference season poll

ICM for The Guardian: Tories 41% (-3%), Labour 32% (+3%), Liberal Democrats 18% (-1%).

11.30am, Saturday. Here's the graphic:

Comments

[Edison Smith]

As with YouGov, another fairly positive poll - still above 40% despite zero press attention, and Labour's 'bounce' fairly small.

[Shaun Bennett]

I'm actually quite encouraged by this poll. It shows that despite two-three weeks (if you include the TUC gathering) of anti-Tory bashing we maintain a strong lead over Labour.

Indeed, before the last few weeks leads of 20 points or more, we were usually only 10-15 ahead. That was seen at the time as a big and fairly impressive lead, and we are now back to those sorts of levels.

Indeed, the more sensible amongst us always knew that those 20+ leads would never be reflected at a real general election. And throughout all that time, I stuck my prediction of a hung parliament next time. These figures are now much more believeable and our week of good news stories hasn't even started yet.

The main problem that people seem to have is that they don't seem to know what the Tories stand for. But this is a problem that will inevitably dissapear once the election approaches closer; and so we shouldn't worry too much about it. Having said that, we can't let Labour get the ideas into peoples heads now that the Tory leadership has no considered policies.

All in all, this poll is very encouraging that our lead is now sustained, and I expect it to grow after conference, probably shrink again, grow again and then start to fall back once the election gets nearer. The key point is that we should not fall into blind panic when we are in a 'dip' period. Continue the steady course that we are on, beware of our opponents attempts to brand us as vacuous but do not be forced to reveal your hand too early.

[Joe James B]

I think we should go for a Decapitation Strategy pact against the Speaker in Glasgow North East.
The SNP would need to spearhead it though.

[Edison Smith]

Ps, the reporting of that poll in the Guardian really underlines to me what a hideous rag it is.

It is pretty much going with a 'Tories in trouble' line.

Unbelievable.

[Andrew Landriani]

I agree with Shaun Bennett. We should play a 'waiting game'. These recent figures arise from an undeservedly good coverage in the media for the 'one-eyed visionary' following Labour's 'ersatz unity' at the Labour conference.

We are the only national party so far which has yet to hold it's annual conference and our policies are yet to be played to the national audience. The general election is not yet upon us and it is 'ours to lose'.

We should continue as we are, keep our powder dry, and await the right time to fill the national consciousness with our raft of policies which will establish 'what we stand for'.

Ours is the Party of tomorrow, with an imaginative new vision of where we can take Great Britain. Labour is the exhausted, played-out party of yesteryear - devoid of vision, bereft of ideas for the future and lacking a clear idea of why they should win, never mind how and under whom.

The Liberal Democrats remain consistent in mediocrity and pointlessness.

Major, Hague, Duncan-Smith and Howard would all have been very satisfied with a lead of the kind we are currently 'down on'.

[gezmond 007]

As predicted our lead is diminishing to a more realistic figure . Cameron is being found out . People re beginning to see through his pr and now want substance . Can he deliver ? I doubt it . We have deserted our principles and this will come back to haunt us . We need real Tories leading the party not fake ones like cameron and osbourne . Wake up , before it's too late .

[David Belchamber]

I thought David Cameron gave a very assured and authoritative performance being grilled by the experts on Sky News last night. He was very good - and human!

Would that we hear something as convincing from George Osborne - on the economy (not merely on Brown bashing).

[On The Job]

As predicted our lead is diminishing to a more realistic figure . Cameron is being found out . People re beginning to see through his pr and now want substance . Can he deliver ? I doubt it . We have deserted our principles and this will come back to haunt us . We need real Tories leading the party not fake ones like cameron and osbourne . Wake up , before it's too late .

Our lead Gesmood i had you down as a socialist or perhaps even worse a swing in the wind liberal!

Personally i think we are ok the ead is down to 9% I am sure after a good conference aree lead will be abck round the 14-15% lead. But we do need some polcies and prett damn quick to

[John Ward]

I suspect that the foregoing comments are all broadly correct, and that both the post-conference situation and the line we should take at conference fall somewhere in the middle.

I too expect another peak in our polling level in next weekend's poll (inevitably someone will conduct one to be published then) and subsequent polls to drop a little. I'd have thought we'd end up more like 16-18% ahead of Labour.

Meanwhile, what I feel might be the best approach at Conference would be somehow to give a flavour of the policies that have been worked-up already (and I am aware that they have, from listening to and quizzing Shadow Ministers etc at fund-raising dinners here).

At this stage, principles plus enough meat to show that there are solid policies to back them (and the people of Britain) up, but being adapted to suit and be ready for whatever the prevailing situation might be when the General Election is called.

The actual fully-detailed policies can wait until the calling of that election, or in the immediate run-up if it is (by then) obvious that it is going to eb spring 2010.

[YMT]

gezmond 007 = One of those Labour website warriors we've heard about no doubt.

Poll is expected, if anything its good news, we'll be right back up and more after our conference and Brown continues to do what he does.

[Raj]

YMT, yeah doubtless the "real Tories" he wants to see are people like IDS and Anne Widdi who will give Labour a shot at winning the next election.

[Tom FD]

That's the best Labour can do?

[asquith]

Have you set up those pictures to send out a not so subtle message? The first thing that jumps out is how petulant Clegg looks. Cameron looks stern & manly yet at ease with himself & the world, Brown looks hectoring.

Trying to worm your way into our heads? :)

[John Haynes]

The poll result is fine and boring as it may seem, a "steady as you go" approach is still the right thing to be doing.

We live in interesting times and the global financial situation is still in flux which means that there is little point in giving hostages to fortune over this tax pledge or that which in the event, may well not be possible. With Darling/Brown prepared to borrow £100 million next year, Osborne may need to be planning for "Austerity".

[Votedave]

I fail to understand why all these polls are being carried out before the Conservatives have had the chance to have their conference. Is it for academic reasons or is there some other motive...? The LibDem bounce went as quickly as it came, after all.

[South West London Activist]

If "asquith" is correct in his interpretation of the photos picked – this must be because Conservatives are taking lessons from Yellow Peril campaigning. I’ve lost count of the number of times I’ve seen Yellow Peril campaign literature where they’ve chosen just the worst pictures of their opponents whilst attempting to make themselves look like glamorised celebrities.

[Yet Another Anon]

I think we should go for a Decapitation Strategy pact against the Speaker in Glasgow North East.
The SNP would need to spearhead it though.
Why should Unionists vote for the SNP, no doubt however the Scottish Unionist Party will stand, as an Anti-Nationalist Party with close links to the UUP surely Conservative voters and some Liberal Democrat voters could switch to vote for them.

[Votedave]

A BPIX poll is showing C 43, Lab 31, LD 17.

[B.Garvie]

It is a typical Guardianista tactic to produce a poll mid-conference season in the hope it assists Labour and particularly, Brown, to survive.They think the electorate will be convinced. They only fool Brown into thinking he has a little more time to impress his colleagues. Sad really.