ComRes: Conservatives on 46%

A ComRes poll for tomorrow's Independent on Sunday finds the Conservatives on 46%, Labour on 25% and the Liberal Democrats on 16%.

Among those who said they are "generally speaking" Labour supporters, just 72% said they intended to vote Labour. 11% said they would vote Liberal Democrat and 8% would vote Conservative. Among Tory identifiers, 96% plan to vote Conservative.

Comments

[Tory]

Had DC stuck to a firm Tory line all along, Britain would be crying out for us to govern by now, we'd be more like 55pc.

Still, he has courage and will be our next PM.

[Liam in Preston]

Quite amazing figures. On a uniform swing - which as we all know won't happen - seats like Tynemouth, Sunderland Central, Aberdeen South, Barrow and Furness, Bolton West, Copeland (!!), even Great Grimsby would fall to the Conservatives.

What Cameron needs to do is put flesh on the bones. Lots of policy announcements and aspirations need to be turned into hard, firm, certain policies. The nation is set for a change. Only a total collapse of standing will keep Labour in power now.

[Nicke]

What should we do about proceeds of growth - there is no longer any growth. Lots of households are reviewing their budgets, should we do so now or wait until the PBR?

[Tony Makara]

It would be interesting if Labour did change leader but refused to call an election. Could the opposition force them to do so? Do any constitutional experts here know of any procedures that could be used?

[David (One of many)]

Tony, I don't think so. As I understand it, even losing a vote of no confidence - as Callaghan did in '79 - doesn't automatically cause an election. Callaghan had a choice of resigning or calling an election; an election would have been mandatory in October that year. I'm pretty sure only the Queen has the power to dissolve Parliament and force an election...

Now, watch how wrong I am ;)

[Evan Price]

Because our system involves only electing a member of parliament and it is effectively the person who has the support of a majority of MPs who is asked by the Queen to form the Government, there is no legal basis for complaining about a further change in Labour's leadership - politically there should be a price to pay.

[Geoff]

David (One of Many) I think you are constitutionally correct.

Unfortunately the last time a sitting monarch went against the wishes of a PM on a n election issue was 1923, when King George V did not dissolve Parliament when asked to by Stanley Baldwin, so it's not likely.

For info, (I think) only Lord North, Lord Russell, Disraeli, Gladstone (x2), Lord Salisbury (x2), Lord Rosebery, Baldwin, MacDonald and Callaghan have ever been defeated on votes of no-confidence but most of those *did* result in elections.

(I set pub quizes. If I've been setting this question wrong over the past few years then please let me know politely)

To ask a more arcane question - does a vote of no-confidence in the HoL carry the same weight as one in the HoC in (a) constitutional theory and (b) reality?

I suspect Yes and No respectively.

[Gloy Plopwell]

What Tories and Labour can't deny is that we Lib Dems are holding above where we were last October, when some polls showed us with 11% and we tragicaly had to decapitate our leader again, and this shows we did keep our show on the road, with stupendous momentum. It's fabulous news because when we relaunch our clear policies at our conference everyone will be able to see we have all the answers for tomorrow. On tax, on the economy, on health, on wimins rights, we are clear.

I stand by my prediction! Overtake Labour next year, and the Tories aswell at the end of 2009. There's time for an outright win in 2010, and we're so excrited.

[John Broughton]

Tory (and others)

I've said here (many tmes) that had Cameron a single inspirational idea/policy (Thatcher - sale of council houses - privatisation etc) then our poll lead would be unassailable.

From B'pool last year I e-mailed several friends saying no general election within minutes of Osborne saying only millionaires will pay inheritance tax. The message had resonance with the voters of GB.

I believe that (team) GB/UK (R4 debate this evening)the British public generally favour a Conservative line:

Smaller governement
lower taxes
Personal responsibility
Less central control
Local Authorities free to make sensible decisions - eg bin collections every week
Choice in education

and I could go on (and on).

BUT as many of us discuused on Centre Right what is the policy regarding the eu. It is our achilles heel. Gb needs a clear unequivocl message that we will take back governance in Westminister from Brussels. Would ive us a majority of 200 plus,

[StevenAdams]

Yes Gloy. Stupendous momentum, that's what the LibDems have.

Good Lord...

[Joe James B]

The Labour government is under no official obligation to call a General Election if they change their leader again.

The polls don't offer much encouragement for them on different leader ratings, although of course, it's hard to prove. I suspect the lack of a clear alternative and the clamour for an immediate election will sway them to draw back, and maybe even let the PM take the flak for the recession (if we have one) before installing someone else.

[Tony Makara]

"...had Cameron a single inspirational idea/policy...then our poll lead would be unassailable. "

David Cameron should pledge to restore our manufacturing and agricultural base. So that we become a nation of producers again and not just a second-rate nation that sells on what other nations produce.

[Yet Another Anon]

Labour isn't going to change it's leader unless Gordon Brown were to die or stand down, which would probably be due to health reasons, although I can imagine him continuing to be PM even if he was ill, it' his nature, he's decided that he's going to resist any attempts to remove him and he intends to contest the General Election.

So far as a General Election goes, it is the Monarch who dissolves parliament and can refuse a General Election or force one, although in practice this hasn't happened for a considerable length of time

[David]

"David Cameron should pledge to restore our manufacturing and agricultural base. So that we become a nation of producers again"

So, how will you make people buy these goods, which will be more expensive?

[Sally Roberts]

"So, how will you make people buy these goods, which will be more expensive?"

As far as manufacturing is concerned, David, you may well be right - unless we can improve the economy overall so that overheads costs such as utility bills can be reduced - but I fail to see that agriculture would become more expensive - surely it is cheaper to grow cabbages down the road from the local supermarket and sell them there than it is to fly the same cabbages in from Kenya for example?

[Sally Roberts]

StevenAdams - oh don't burst Gloy's balloon! He is so excited and is one of my favourite posters here!

By the way, Gloy, do tell me where you get your Happy Pills from - I want some! :-)

[Richard ROBINSON]

Glory Popwell (23.52), this was exactly what Chris Huhne was claiming a week ago:

'Chris Huhne claimed that his party was "up very substantially", averaging 12 per cent in the polls last year and 18 per cent recently'

With unintended irony he then went on to claim that the Conservative Party "seems to be in serious danger of becoming exceptionally complacent and self-congratulatory".

Checking back to September 2003 (20 months before the last general election), the Liberals were consistantly above 20% and in one poll as high as 24%. Of course this was the time at which Charles Kennedy was claiming that the LibDems were the “real opposition”.

[David Belchamber]

Sally at 09.06:

"As far as manufacturing is concerned, David, you may well be right - unless we can improve the economy overall so that overheads costs such as utility bills can be reduced - but I fail to see that agriculture would become more expensive".

I suspect that as the years fly by we will discover the need to become much more self-sufficient in both energy and food supplies. As world populations increase, countries get more and more built over, floods and extreme weather conditions become more frequent and fossil fuels diminish, shortages will face even affluent countries.

Additionally, there is the political threat of foreign suppliers being able to hold a customer country up to ransom (as Russia already can with gas).

I believe we must produce more ourselves of the basic necessities and almost hang the cost.

[Sally Roberts]

"I believe we must produce more ourselves of the basic necessities and almost hang the cost."

Yes, David - I agree.

[RichardJ]

I don't know what's funnier - Gloy's post or the people who think he's being serious.

[Dave McEwan Hill]

Gordon Brown is now in the political equivalent of negative equity from which there is no escape.
He cannot regain any popularity by showering successful Olympians with honours, only disapproval if he does not, and the more he indulges in such gestures the more he will be seen as self-seeking, crass and desperate.
His call for a UK soccer team for the 2012 Olympics has gone down like a lead balloon in Scotland, expecially as Scotland is playing in the World Cup qualifiers this week. The SFA and the SFL and virtually all engaged in soccer in Scotland (and Wales) are vehemently opposed to this suggestion and this is seen in Scotland as another attempt by the sorry Brown to make himself seem less Scottish.
I now think Labour will lose the Glenrothes by-election whenever they call it.

[Gareth Jones]

Oh please Gloy Plopwell. Stop these silly posts every time a poll is published. Your party has no chance of ever forming a government.