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Why does 45.2% poll of polls margin give us less of a majority than 45%?

Anyway, surprised that the LibDems are up one percentage point after Vince Cable admitted that nationalisation of Northern Rock was a dreadful idea only proposed by stupid people.

Because the Labour vote's higher in the poll of polls, Oberon.

Why does 45.2% poll of polls margin give us less of a majority than 45%?

Its simply because of the improved labour vote in the poll of polls compared to the latest poll which gives a slightly narrower lead.

I think the Russia/ Georgia episode will only strengthen our position in the polls also.

Was this poll done before the North/South regeneration thing?

The Lib Dems up 1% Where's our friend Gloy? He's going to be treemendously or stupendously excited isn't he?!! ;-)

" whether the Tories would be better at handling Britain’s current problems "

This is a key area of concern that needs to be addressed. We need to hear more than just analysis from the shadow treasury team. People now know that New Labour have broken the economy but they need to how will a Conservative government fix it? Where is the strategy for job-creation? How will welfare reform free-up money? Remember the proposed plans for workfare promise to give people something to do while on benefits, they don't show us how we will take people off benefits, welfare is a key headache for the treasury. What is to be done to support business? How can we promise tax cuts while sticking to Labour's spending commitments if there is no more money in the kitty? If I were a government spokesman I could find more than enough holes in Conservative plans to sow a seed of doubt in the public mind. While supporting George Osborne and his team we need to keep pushing to ensure that they produce more and have no weak areas for Labour to exploit.

When did Vince Cable say that nationalising Northern Roch was a stupid idea ? Was he not the person who proposed it first ?

Vince Cable did propose it Roberts, and is now scurrying around for excuses...


I would be delighted to see the back of this contemptible government but I wonder how sustainable the Conservative party's lead is when so little is known of its policies. Most disturbing is Mr Osborne's woeful silence - before him lies the vista of Labour waste and overspending, yet he says nothing. He seems to be remarkably cautious or fearful.

I think the Russia/ Georgia episode will only strengthen our position in the polls also.
In terms of political support I doubt it will make much difference, if any, in fact if it were to build to a confrontation between Russia and NATO or even a trade war, I suspect that the general political drift in this country would be that it was a long way away and not to get involved, there is an unfortunate insularity among a large section of the general population.

It's just coming out of mid-term now, the focus seems to be starting to shift towards the opposition.

The Liberal Democrats are drifting, there hasn't been that much scrutiny of the Conservative programme, the SNP is getting into some trouble over it's Local Income Tax scheme and in addition while the SNP have a history of spectacular by-election gains in the West of Scotland (many on far bigger swings than Glasgow East - Glasgow Govan in 1988 had over a 30% swing), they haven't had such large movements in the East Lowlands, so even though the Labour majority in Glenrothes is smaller they have a good chance of holding it.

Policy statements from anyone on the Financial team would be electoral suicide at this moment. Why? The last one almost a year ago which said " IHT threshold to 1 million" was immediately aped by the idiots in No10 and No11, not only that but then claimed non-dom taxation would fund it far in excess of what was stated by Osborne. Result... a disaster in non-doms leaving, a fuddle of policy announcements by Darling and the headlines lost to what this government was DOING and not what the Tories could OFFER.
Take my advice, keep the powder dry, and don't load the pistols yet. This lot will shoot themselves again and again in the feet, the legs, and anywhere else before Osborne or Cameron has to commit to any policy statement.
Remeber Bliars five pledges? Thats all you need, because that's all the tablods can handle, NOT detailed policy scrutiny.

Danny, spot on!

Danny, quite right.

And, as I have been at pains to point out on numerous occasions, does anyone have the remotest idea what the economic landscape will look like in 2010?

Why would anyone in their right mind be making detailed plans now that might be completely inappropriate come the next election?

With due respect to the previous posts its highly unlikely that Labour could copy any economic plans to use tax cuts to boost the economy or to save money by rolling back the state. The public have a right to know if the Conservative party has an economic masterplan and, if the case for savings and tax cuts is sound, I feel confident that the voters will back it.

Yes I agree with you Danny. One could fantasize that 'this lot' might shoot themselves in the head rather than the 'legs and feet'! But on second thoughts as many of them have little or nothing between the ears - apparently, it probably wouldn't have much effect anyway!!

Tony @ 15.36 Don't you recollect that Darling (i.e.Brown) already did copy/nick David Osborne's suggestions for IHT, but just watered it down a bit. Also Mr. Brown actually stated a month or two ago, that as far as he is concerned it is perfectly reasonable for his government to use any Conservative ideas! I think he even said it in Parliament (but I can't remember exactly).

"With due respect to the previous posts it's highly unlikely that Labour could copy any economic plans to use tax cuts to boost the economy or to save money by rolling back the state".

Spot on, Tony at 15.36. I only hope though that David Cameron will unveil a hard-nosed economic strategy at the tory conference to demonstrate that we really are competent to deal with the ever increasing mess that Brown has got us into.

I think it important that he states categorically that Brown has driven the economy onto the rocks and spending departments can therefore now expect little or no increase in real terms on this year's budgets.

He should also state that one of the tories' first initiatives will be a vigorous crusade against redtape, quangos, consultancies, unnecessary tiers of bureaucracy and any other forms of waste; this will release vital people from bureaucracy, as well as save money. Like any individual, the country has to get back to living within its (reasonable) income.

It would be good to spell this out now and maybe people whose jobs add no value at all to public services might start making alternative arrangements.

I also hope that DC has a reshuffle of his shadow cabinet so that the many doubters, such as myself, about the competence and energy of the shadow treasury team can make up our minds as to how serious he really is about dealing with the economy.

Patsy Sergeant, Labour can only go so far before their natural instincts pull the back, IHT was a dishonest piece of opportunism, but I believe very much a one-off.

David Belchamber, what you say is very true. We need to free-up dead money that is being wasted by govt and plough that into tax cuts for business to get our economy moving again and tax-relief for consumers to get people spending and saving again. Spending commitments made in times of plenty cannot be maintained, in times of austerity everyone has to cut their cloth accordingly and that means big-spending government. Our nation cannot afford such spending plans and George Osborne needs to come out and say it is time to rein in the public finances.

Agree entirely with Tony M and David B above. While there might have been a time when it was sufficient to speak in glib terms about sharing the proceeds of growth, the events of the last year starting with Northern Rock show that we are certain to inherit a shambles of an economy, and it makes sense to explain without further delay how we intend to go about rebuilding it in a manner that shows how different our policies will be. One immediate priority must be a polite but firm repudiation of the pledge to match Labour's spending plans.

As to the fear of those policies being stolen, I hesitate once more to mention John Redwood's frequent blog contributions, but he is masterful in making practical and realistic suggestions for the repair of the economy that would turn a socialist's stomach. The supposed outcry from the other side that would greet his return to the front bench would be short lived and empty.

The Conservative inheritance after the next general election will be dreadful. We saw this in 1979 and it will come full circle once more in 2010. There are sure to be savage measures needed to put this situation right, as there were then. Anyone who thinks that the Shadow Treasury team is insulated from this reality is living on another planet. Can these blinkered commentators really imagine that it is a realistic option to try to guess what the situation is going to be like in 2010 and then propose the measures needed; and then announce the idea 2 years in advance? Do they really think all those in the government`s employ will solemnly accept this and start making plans for redundancy? Do they really think the Conservatives will have a chance of being elected with enough of a working majority to take on the country`s problems? I fear that all too many voters will take the easy option and vote for more of the same old Labour line of `spend your way out of trouble` rather than face the hard truth. For heavens sake show a little patience and make sure we get ourselves elected first.

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