Tories 15% ahead in ICM poll

A new ICM survey for The Guardian has the Conservatives on 43% (-2%), Labour on 28% (+3%) and the tax-cutting LibDems on 19% (-1%).  More interestingly 60% of voters told ICM that they were planning to cut their own spending.  More here.

Comments

[Mara MacSeoinin]

Why in God's name have we lost 2% and Labour gained three, given the continuous, appalling blunders perpetrated by Brown and his gruesome front bench on a daily basis?

[John Broughton]

Mara

Abandon logic - did the lunatic behind the machine gun work for some people?

[brian]

Polls go up, polls go down. 2 or 3% is the sort of margin of error of most polls.

Then again, Gordon *is* out of the country. That's worth a few points.....

[Kallie]

Mara MacSeoinin, because the Tories have been resting on their laurels and not going on the media exposing said blunders!

[Tatty]

This is good news for Labour but bad for Brown. It shows Labour's support increasing whilst staying very low for Brown personally. Maybe this will give the likes of David Miliband food for thought.

[Raj]

Mara, probably because Labour were lulling the Conservatives into false security and will now go on to win the greatest victory since the Winchester flower arrangers beat Harrow by twelve sore bottoms to one!

Or, as John said, it could be because polls fluctuate - as they have been since the Tories hit well over 40%.

[Editor]

People really shouldn't read too much into such small movements.

[Votedave]

The Tory lead can't go up and up forever. The bottom line is that we still have a big lead - one Howard, IDS and Hague couldn't have dreamt of having.
Besides - YouGov, who were almost spot on in predicting Boris Johnson's victory in London - still has our lead at 22%.

[Hmmmm]

ICM polls in the Guardian are never likely to favour the Tories. 15% form them is, in reality, well into the 20% bracket

[Andrew Woodman]

I think people need to get a sense of proportion. It's a move within the margin of error on a sample of 1000 people. Hardly meltdown.

[Emma]

It wasn't ICM that got the London Mayoral race spot on it was yougov. ICM always over estimate Labour support, they had Ken and Boris tied!

[Votedave]

Looking back at ICM polls since the last general election, this lead is still 1% higher than it was in mid-May after those local elections, and certainly higher than all the ones before May.

[Silent Hunter]

As has been said.........It's a Guardian sponsored poll by ICM........of course it's going to favour ZaNuLabour.

I prefer my information from YouGov who get it consistently correct, as they did about Crewe & Nantwich.........they put Labour where they belong........bumping along the bottom.

And I say this as an ex Labour voter.

Oh and whilst I'm here............Why is Spelman still in post?

[Graeme Archer]

I'm a professional statistician (sorry), and last weekend, when the ComRes poll came out, I had a go at working out the standard error for the difference in Tory support for two consecutive polls from the same company with ComRes sample sizes and Tory support around the 40+% mark. It comes out at ~5%. So that's my rule of thumb: a change in Tory support, up or down, by less than 5%, can't be declared as "real" as it could just as easily be sampling variability. Interestingly from what I could see, ComRes have ~630 responders in their sample.

What matters more (as a consequence of this) is the trend over multiple months. A change of -2 in one month doesn't signify and nor does the reduced lead since Labour's increase could be driven by the same artefact.

[Tom FD]

Roll on 2010! (Or better, call an early one!)

[Patrick Ratnaraja]

from 22% to 15% in a month. Not good news is it?

[Michael Rutherford]

If a 15% lead with a 100 majority for us is considered a bad poll, we should be quite happy with how things are going!

Nothing disasterous has happened for a while for Labour, so if may be our position with knee-jerks taken out of consideration.

[Gloy Plopwell]

I confess to being disapointed that we Lib dems can't seem to progress further at the moment. It's still fabuluos that we're up on where we were last October, when we had to decapitate our leader. But Nick Clegg is really charismatic and forceful, and we will regain our stupendous momentum over the party conference season. There's still nearly two years to win the General Election, and I'm utterly confident these will be Lib Dem gains in 2010 -

Filton and Bradley Stoke
Manchester Gorton
Wycombe
Reading East
Newbury
Christchurch
Surrey East
Wolverhampton North East
Birmingham Northfield
Birmingham Selly Oak
Broxtowe

and nearly 300 more.

[Edward Huxley]

Don`t know about the rest but the "charismatic and forceful" Cleggover has no hope of winning Newbury or Surrey East. Does Gloy Plopwell want a bet? With nearly 300 more Libdem wins as he (or is it she?) predicts they should, not to coin a phrase, "prepare for government". Funny, I can`t quite see that happening.

[Robbie]

I would pay absolutely no attention to this poll, any way we are still 15% ahead according to this. As if you are going to find 28% of people still backing Labour! YouGov is the poll we should be looking out for - this will show us a more realistic state of play!

[Graham D'Amiral]

My word how things have changed if we regard a 15 point lead as disappointing. In truth though labour support is slightly up in this poll to get it in to perspective they are doing about as well as they did in the 1983 general election.

[Letters From A Tory]

Brown hasn't had a political catastrophe for a few weeks now, hence the movement in the polls. Rest assured there will be plenty more to come.

[Gezmond007]

Everytime it,s the same story , a good poll is , Rejoyce, Rejoyce , Rejoyce ! and any other poll where the lead has dropped , "Ignore this poll it,s obviously a rogue poll, ICM and the Guardian don,t like us"

When will you people be realistic , the Labour Party have only one way to go with their rating and that is what they are doing. I predict that by December it will be neck and neck !

Labour have done some good things these last two weeks , whereas Cameron has faultered on various subjects.

It is swings and roundabout time !

[Malcolm Redfellow]

Look, for all of the scrutiny of the entrails, it's as simple as the passage of time.

The second trimester is always the most difficult for an incumbent party (Budget, etc). The third trimester tends to be the most advantageous: for a start, it's the holiday season, which slackens any remaining interest in "politics".

[Jamal McAkhbar]

Don't panic Captain Mannering! The news this week for Zanulabor and what remains of our economy (FT Today -another U Turn, Friday's fiscal rules) is terrible. In fact, if they had any honour, they would resign. The level of official lying, cover-up and incompetence is at an all-time high. If Zanulabor don't step aside soon, there may not be a working economy left.

[Gezmond007]

Petrol down five pence per litre as from today ! Great news !!

[Dale]

"Everytime it,s the same story , a good poll is , Rejoyce, Rejoyce , Rejoyce ! and any other poll where the lead has dropped , "Ignore this poll it,s obviously a rogue poll, ICM and the Guardian don,t like us"

When will you people be realistic , the Labour Party have only one way to go with their rating and that is what they are doing. I predict that by December it will be neck and neck !

Labour have done some good things these last two weeks , whereas Cameron has faultered on various subjects.

It is swings and roundabout time !"

I'm not entirly sure whether this is a joke or not but I'll rip it apart anyway.

Firstly when most polls show a 20pc lead and oneshow a 15pc lead, that is called a rogue poll. That is the very definition of the term.

Second, The labour party could indeed go up in the polls, but considering the economy is going down its more realistic to expect labour to go the same way.

Thirdly, why do you call yourself 'gezmond007'? I presume the 007 bit is because you are abit sad.

[Gloy Plopwell]

I forgot to say, we Lib dems will take all the seats in Hull, Nottingham, Liverpool, aswell as Windsor, Surrey Heath, and Bracknell Forest aswell.