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Down 4% thats worrying. Could it be to do with David Davis and Boris Johnson?

I'm in agreement regarding Johnson, but public opinion seems to be behind Davis' stance even when they don't agree with with his view on 42 days.

This has mothing to do with Johnson.

Lets be serious here, did Johnson appoint Ray so he could one day be exposed and then resign? No he was invited so he could solve some of the serious ills facing the country: knife crime and anti-social behaviour.

Boris has so far done alot for London since becoming mayor. We all know that.

I believe the drop in support might be as a result of the expenses issue.

If repeated in real life it gives a Tory overall majority of 64. (electoral calculus)

It's obvious better for Labour than recent polls, and there is generally a bit of a swing back to the incumbants on polling day as people hesitate to vote for a change.

Even so, an awfully long way to long for Labour to win a 4th election, even as a minority government.

Nothing to do with Boris! The poll would have been conducted just before the Ray Lewis story broke. It does, I am afraid, have to do with the expenses issue - Derek Conway, Giles Chichester, Den Dover et al.

If it's to do with expenses, why have labour gone up?

Norm Brainer,
Perhaps because there is no Labour equivalent of the Wintertons or Derek Conway?

Spelman is the problem. See Politics Home for the evidence

We shouldn't read too much into headline numbers.

The advantage on economic competence IS very good news.

4% down at this point is VERY interesting indeed. I don't this it is necessarily Johnson or Lewis or Davis or Spelman or Chichester or Duncan or Dover or Atkins or so on and so forth.

And if this is a certain to vote poll (as it probably is) the all who expressed a preference vote is likely to see Labour a good few points ahead. Very encouraging.

The broad population are being told by media from top to bottom that Brown is a loser. No great surprise that they repeat this to a pollster. That can change in a few weeks.

As for Lewis one of biggest parts of the myth is that this lying chancer had the skill set to turn round knife crime in the capital. he had what amounted a fancy dress after school club for 50 kids opted in by supportive parents and if the Baton Rouge model was followed closely with medium-high academics from the get go.

It was noticeable that Kip wotsit appeared to dispute that Lewis had had any input to the actions taken so far on knife crime. He was more of a long term thinker and/or mascot.

The poll was carried out over the weekend (4th-6th) so the vast majority of it would have been concurrent with the Lewis issue.

As it was the main political story over the weekend it may have had an effect.

Combine that with the fact that the Conservatives have had several other negative sleaze stories, the Government has won a number of votes in Parliament, that Parliament is winding down, that holiday (silly) season is starting and Labour have had no more real disasters for a couple of weeks and that could explain the changes.

I suspect we won't see the next really meaningful polls until September. Key thing is for Cameron to consolidate the Conservative figures above 40% during the summer period.

As always, C Paul, polls are so much more reliable than real elections. Crewe and Nantwich to name but one. This Nation is sick, very sick and Brown/Labour are the ROOT cause. Socialism is a viscious and failed, immoral doctrine akin to fascism.
Roll on The General Election, assuming there is to be another such event.

Chris Paul, nice to see you over here from Labour Home but I think a lot of what you say is wishful thinking! As for Ray Lewis being a "chancer" - well, sadly it does appear that he wrecked his chances of doing a great deal of good for London's youth by foolishly embroidering his CV somewhat...he wouldn't be the first or the last person to do that in any political environment as well as in the wider business world!

Spelman really has to go.

In addition,
The MEPs caught should lose the whip, and the Wintertons should really repay the rent claimed.

Also - essential - anyone else should own up now or face losing the whip.

We cannot demonstrate we are on the side of the public and looking after their money with cases such as this. We just can't.

It was done between the 4th and 6th of July, so in the middle of the Boris issues.

More than anything I'd imagine that this figure is a result of little bad news for Labour over recent weeks. It's probably a more realistic figure of where we're at.

But we should still be pleased with it, a 64 majority even when no Labour sleaze is going on is pretty good going.

This is not suprising really. The General Election will probably be held in May 2010.
We should not and cannot expect to hold a 20 point lead at every point from here on out.

Don't fret too much about the 4 percent slip, my Tory friends, the economy is about to go belly up and will continue in this posture well into 2010 and beyond. Gordon Brown will get the blame (rightly) and your man, Dave Cameron, will be the next PM.

But what then?

What will DC do about the EU superstate, our poor knackered economy, our grossly under equipped and (in the lower ranks) underpaid Armed Services, the dysfunctional state education system, the failing NHS, our shortage of power generation plant and the broken society. Then your problems will really benign since, though your leadership makes noises about all these from time to time, the reality is that DC does not even know where to begin.

In the meanwhile, in part to keep you on your toes, some of us will keep up rapid sniper fire from UKIP.

Sleaze issue is starting to bite a bit, anyway at the rate the things are going at the moment I'm tempted to start looking at investing in some land out in ChIndia as a backup.

Unless the Tories badly screw up (and I wouldn't put it past them), the next election is pretty much decided. Labour are now in a similar position to the Tories a few years back, which is that they will tend to dislike a policy more when they hear it is a Labour one.

We'll see what Labour can achieve over the next couple of years, and hope that slow and solid beats flightly and vaccuous.

Can people please stop blaming Boris for the Ray Lewis problem. That was caused by Nick Boles not undertaking the vetting (his job) thoroughly. Boles along with his boss Maude did a very bad job. They let Boris and us down.

Joe James Broughton - Yes I agree with you in principle and I suspect that David Cameron may well shuffle Mrs Spelman out of the way as soon as the DD By Election is out of the way!

With the MEPs there is of course the point that denying them the Conservative whip merely means that they sit outside the group as Messrs Helmer and Hannan already do! They may well not regard it as any particular punishment.

"In the meanwhile, in part to keep you on your toes, some of us will keep up rapid sniper fire from UKIP."

We're wetting ourselves with fear at the thought of your pea shooters.

"What will DC do about ....., our poor knackered economy"

Yes indeed what will DC do about our poor knackered economy, for I have this unpleasant feeling in the pit of my stomach that things are going to go bad very fast with our economy. For not only do we have an economy built on debt, public and private, unbridled consumption, and a bubble housing market, the problems of which are all to obvious now, but the rest of the economy I think is very fragile and shallow, for in the past we had capital intensive industries which acted as a break on any downward spiral, now with an economy built on service jobs, and service jobs servicing the service jobs, all that can go in the blink of an eye.

I am not too worried by this poll (i.e. the 4% drop). Labour will very soon be in free fall again if we are in a 'Serious Risk' of a recession as reported by SKY news today. With DC and GO thought to be more trusted to run the economy we will be on the up once more. Although what does worry me is the state of the economy when we come to power!

It will be interesting to see if our share of the vote goes up in the Glasgow by-election, also if labour do indeed lose to the SNP whether that moronic buffoon brown can stay on.

Richard [email protected] I was a Tory once and you should be more careful with your scorn. The EU elections in Spring 2009 could well be the referendum on the Lisbon treaty we never had and thus fall to the favour of UKIP, bringing that party into national prominence once more. Personally, I aim to jump on this bandwagon and take out my local Tory County Councillor (a "Cabinet” member of our profligate Tory Controlled County Council which still spends public money on foolish wasteful tasks).

[email protected] The economy is indeed in a very poor shape, just as you describe. The really terrifying thing is that the Tory leadership who will certainly form the government of our country from June 2010, if not before, do not (yet?) seem to have recognised the problem and so have no strategy for recovery. Our economic problems are deep seated and will certainly be with us for many years, maybe a generation.

I fear the future, particularly, I fear for my wife and myself in our old age, for my children and my (notional) grandchildren. The Tories will win next time but, in the longer term, I see a new Cromwell and the possibility of dictatorship, hardship and oppression.

"do not (yet?) seem to have recognised the problem and so have no strategy for recovery."

Yes it is terrifying, for though I am desperate to get shot of this lousy Labour Government I don't hold out any hope that Cameron/Osborne have any solutions to our economic plight or the where with all to carry out the necessary restructuring of our economy. I was exasperated to hear Cameron say , not even a year ago, that the next election would be fought on social issues, and the economy wasn't an issue anymore, I found it staggering that he could have come up with a statement like that when many of us could see the economic brick wall we were heading to at a rate of knots, then to make matter worse Osborne chirps up to say that he will copy Labour's spending plans. And what have we had since? 'Share the proceeds of growth' , and 'They didn't fix the roof when the sun was shinning' , it hardly gives you confidence that they have done any hard economic thinking about the problems facing our economy, in fact I despair, for though I have a pretty low opinion of Osborne’s ability in matters economic, and though there are better people around, I really don’t see anyone around who has really grasped the enormity of the problems facing us, and has the ability to change the economic direction of our country.

Socialism is a viscious and failed, immoral doctrine akin to fascism....Roll on The General Election, assuming there is to be another such event.

M Dowding, if you think New Labour has anything whatsoever to do with socialism, you are seriously deluded and/or out of touch.

And comparing Gordon Brown's policies to fascism would be offensive if it weren't so laughable.

Talking about cancelling the next general election is just hysterical rubbish.

I fear the future, particularly, I fear for my wife and myself in our old age, for my children and my (notional) grandchildren. The Tories will win next time but, in the longer term, I see a new Cromwell and the possibility of dictatorship, hardship and oppression.

Oh, please. The doom mongers on here are so silly. It's like those people who go on about "the EU tyranny", as if we're all being crushed by the jackboot of an authoritarian regime. (As Michael White once pointed out, the EU couldn't tyrannise its way out of a paper bag.)

If you really want to know what it feels like to live under an authoritarian regime, go and live in Zimbabwe for a bit, then you might grow up in your political thinking.

Interesting that the Conservative lead shrinks after Windmill Dave clambers back aboard the Global Warming Bandwagon, and Tim Yeo hectors the electorate that high fuel prices are good "for the planet", no doubt under orders from their EU masters.
Will they never learn?

Nigel [email protected]

Clearly we do not live in an oppressive regime now but you obviously have little perception of the economic blizzard to is about to hit us and of the implications of economic disaster for democracy.

"And comparing Gordon Brown's policies to fascism would be offensive if it weren't so laughable"

But not if you compare his actions to a totalitarian regime. Labour in the last decade have corrupted every aspect of our constitutional settlement, they have politicised the Civil Service, they have unpicked our constitution to benefit for their narrow party interest, they have attacked our Courts, Juries, and our rights, and they have so corrupted our electoral system, again for their party benefit, that for the first time ever we are going to have electoral observers sent here to check on the electoral fraud. And this is before we get onto Brown being elected leader to the Labour party unopposed, which is straight out of the Dictators handbook, staged his own coronation against to the commitments Blair gave the electorate, and has ducked getting a mandate for what he intends doing at every turn.

I agree with every word Nigel Rathbone says.All this nonsense that we hear about canceling elections, tyranical EU etc is just that nonsense.Its just extremists talking extreme nonsense.

"Can people please stop blaming Boris for the Ray Lewis problem. That was caused by Nick Boles not undertaking the vetting (his job) thoroughly. Boles along with his boss Maude did a very bad job. They let Boris and us down."

Posted by: HF

No, Boles did what he had to do to minimise the damage done by Johnson's gibberish about pickaninnies and watermelon smiles and so on.

It's not fair to blame Boles for an error forced by the idiocy of his candidate.

The Conservatives are down I suspect, because they have an open goal and yet they still fail to make the most of it.

They are, in addition, now bent on scoring own goals with issues like not supporting David Davis, mishandling Boris's appointments - why should his man resign over a comment about black people living where they want - and going on about relative poverty and climate change.

We have no confidence you are going to be anything but a 'Blair lite' Government, there is little to inspire us. But you are at least better than the wicked, incompetent, fascist Government now tyrannising us.

What would interest me more is why Labour appear to have risen by anything? I cannot remember them doing anything that would warrant this - in fact when even the Labour voters of Glasgow East are turning on them they should be going down. So maybe there is something in the poll itself?

And if I were the Liberals I'd give up - if they cannot beat Labour now, they never will.

Do these polls ask BNP/SNP/PC intentions - I'd like to see those. UKIP'S a waste of space - build up a proper challenge of stop diverting votes.

Has anyone else noticed the handicap to democracy when trying to deliver letters and leaflets to council estates? Many of them are impossible to access now, with locked communal front doors and no reachable letterboxes. Residents are cut off from leafleting, canvassing and visits. Am I being over-imaginative or could it be deliberate? I have noticed this in York, Lambeth, Peacehaven and Oxford East. Many are getting left out of the campaigning loop because we just can't get at them.

And this is before we get onto Brown being elected leader to the Labour party unopposed, which is straight out of the Dictators handbook

Iain, you claim to be a big defender of the constitution - and I agree that Labour has done some ill-thought through tinkering with it (although far from being in their narrow party interest it's actually working to their detriment now) - but you display a surprising ignorance of the constitution if you are repeating the tired old "unelected prime minister Brown" nonsense.

Once and for all, Brown is NOT unelected, because Prime Ministers are not directly elected and they never have been. The Labour party can at least claim a history of electing their leaders - something the Tory party has only come to in the relatively recent past.

Brown's accession to the premiership is no more "straight out of the Dictators handbook" than that of Home, Macmillan, Eden, Churchill, Chamberlain, Baldwin, Bonar Law, Balfour - how far back do I need to go? We're almost back the the 19th century already...

Unlike all the above men - who all became PM in between general elections - Brown put himself up for election to Labour party members. The fact the Labour party was too disorganised/in awe of him/scared of internal debate (delete as applicable) to put up an opposing candidate is irrelevant.

So Brown is just as legitimate as any other prime minister. If he had seized supreme power from the Queen and declared himself Head of State and President, you might have a point - but it's rather ironic that you criticise him for coming to office via such a well trodden constitutional path, then simultaneously argue he should be submitting himself for a highly unconstitutional (and therefore unnecessary) presidential-style personal mandate election.

"Brown put himself up for election to Labour party members. "

Which means Brown got the PMship without anyone casting their vote for him, that's pretty totalitarian. But this was in the face of the undertaking Labour gave the electorate that Blair would serve a full term. In addition we have the fact that as a Scottish elected politician ,and in light of devolution, he is primarily involved with setting policy in England, in fact the de facto English First Minister, yet no English person has voted for him, that leaves his mandate resting on one issue, fulfilling the manifesto they put to the electorate and on which they got elected. But as we have seen he's torn that up as well, and apart from reneging on the referendum, he is now set on a course of putting his vision to the country. Well sorry he has no mandate for that, if he wants to put a vision to the country he should put in a bloody election, not foist it on us regardless.

There is WAY too much attention paid to individual polls so far away from a general election on this site.

Any political professional can you tell you this is a waste of time.

This is the *second* biggest Conservative lead ever recorded by Populus. It is higher than they lead they recorded in May, straight after the local elections.

There's no reason to get worked up about this.

Nigel Rathbone : "So Brown is just as legitimate as any other prime minister."
Well, yes technically. But I have to admit, I remember reading things at the time that fully justified the "clunking fist" epithet.
He and his Whips really put the screws on to garner a sufficiency of signatures to squeeze out any other person having the opportunity to stand against him. Grim reading it was too. So was he elected into power by his party or did he bully the bejasus out of them into appointing him is a perfectly valid question. I look forward to reading about it when he is gone, hopefully in that not too distant future.

It's fabulous that we Lib dems are still above where we were when we very sadly had to decapitate our leader, and this shows we are still well within timscale to cross over Labour, then the Tories to get that overall majority in 2 years time.

I'm so excrited that we have this fabulous oportunity in Glasgow central. My prediction?

Lib Dem 15,000
SNP 8,000
Labour 6,000
Con 700

Gloy Popwell @23:26

Dream on.....it's Glasgow East. Lib Dems will come 4th at best... Well behind the Conservatives.

Looking tough on 42 days, the 60th anniversary of the NHS, NHS constitution, Johnstone hitting back on polyclinics, the Green energy plan, the relatively well recived trip to suadi arabia. If you set aside party bias the Government has had a few half decent mdia days recently. Given that wehn you are clawing your way up to 28% you are talking about core votes some of these isues will resonate with core voters.

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