Project Cameron has evolved but has been remarkably consistent overall

Peter Oborne writes about the big Tory turnaround in today's Daily Mail.  He believes that Cameron has made major changes in order to transform his opinion poll ratings of last year.  Here are some of Oborne's 'evidences' with our comments in italics afterwards:

• Grammar schools: "A year ago, Cameron's leadership had just been brought to its knees after he infuriated his core supporters by sanctioning a scathing attack on grammar schools by his education spokesman David Willetts. However, Cameron has since appointed a new education spokesman, Michael Gove, and has a new policy which decrees that grammar schools must be 'absolutely defended'."  Although it's true that Michael Gove has been warmer to grammar schools there is no big shift in policy towards, for example, supporting their expansion in areas of the country where there are no grammars.
• Green issues: "Take, also, the environment. When Cameron became Tory leader, green issues lay at the heart of everything he did.  He would take his 'carbon neutral' bicycle journey to work.  To show his concern about melting glaciers, he orchestrated a photo-shoot of himself being pulled by dog-sled inside the Arctic Circle.  Nuclear power was, he declared, a 'last resort'.  However, this emphasis has now radically changed.  Recently, Cameron remarked: 'If nuclear power stations can make their case in the market, they should go ahead.'  The Tories have also pledged to introduce a 'fair fuel duty stabiliser' which would lower the amount of duty imposed by the Chancellor when the cost of oil goes up.  And his concern about his own carbon footprint seems to have waned - having now clocked up more than 70 flights by private jet or helicopter - the most environmentally-damaging methods of transport since becoming Tory leader."   The environment is certainly not the central theme that it was and the shift on nuclear power is notable.  David Cameron's recent opposition to Heathrow expansion shows that the theme is still alive, however.  The most significant shift is towards a more positive environmentalism - George Osborne signalling recently, for example, that households will be encouraged to recycle.
• Economic policy: "On the economy, the shift has been almost as marked. This time last year, Cameron seemed out of touch with the financial struggles which dominate the lives of so many ordinary, hard-working British families.  Economic policy, he blithely insisted, was 'not just about giving people a tax cut but giving them more time for the good things in life'.  Yet Cameron's most recent comments have been much more understanding, with an emphasis on the pain that voters are suffering from rises in the cost of living and the difficulties so many face in paying their ever-increasing tax bills."  The economy and tax are back at the centre of the Conservative message but there has been no big shifts.  The pledge to match Labour's spending increases is still Tory policy and there'll be no unfunded tax relief.
• Crime: "Then there is the area of law and order.  Soon after becoming Tory leader, David Cameron spoke with sympathy about the hoodies who menace so many of our streets.  The problem, he declared, was 'neglect and absence of love'. That naive view has quickly been jettisoned.  Now he's much tougher and the message is: 'Carry a knife, and you will go to jail.'"  No contradiction or big change here.  Cameron still wants to be tough on the causes of crime - by proving young people with better structure, education and the love of a good family - and tough on crime - by increasing prison places etc.
• Law and order: "Cameron's personal style has changed, too.  When he took over from Michael Howard, he called for an end to 'Punch and Judy politics' and promised an element of crossparty consensus by saying he would support the Government on certain issues.  Now, however, Cameron is far more confrontational, as witnessed by his repeated attack on Gordon Brown as 'useless' during Wednesday's Prime Minister's Questions.  In short, a new, more confident and much nastier Tory leader has emerged in recent months - one that has received the private endorsement of Margaret Thatcher."  Peter Oborne is largely correct here and he could also have mentioned the disappearance of open necked shirts, too.

Oborne exaggerates but it's also true that his list is incomplete.  He could also have mentioned greater discussion of immigration (part of a wider 'And theory' broadening); the downgrading of the A-list for candidate selection; and a willingness to now mention (and appear with) Margaret Thatcher and George W Bush.

But the more striking feature of 'Cameronism' is its continuity on some of the biggest issues.  Three stand out:

• The centrality of the social reform agenda.  David Cameron's first act as Tory leader was to visit a community project with Iain Duncan Smith (Ray Lewis' Eastside Young Leaders' Academy actually) and establish the Policy Group on Social Justice.  Social justice has remained a central theme ever since and George Osborne connected it to the long-term health of the public finances last Tuesday.
• Economic stability before tax cuts.  We think it's a false choice but you can't accuse George Osborne of wavering from his belief that fiscal conservatism and budgetary discipline must come before supply-side tax cuts.
• The NHS is safe in Tory hands.  The party has said that it will match Labour's spending on the NHS and avoided any talk of bold reform.  As with the economy, 'NHYes' is a reassurance-drenched message.

Comments

[Iain]

" Economic stability before tax cuts. We think it's a false choice "

Its also a wrong choice, for while Cameron and Osborne are playing the economic politics of five years ago the issue is now about getting a better bang for our bucks from the bloated state. For as further taxation is not acceptable, further borrowing not wise ( but likely ) its now about getting the state to supply the services demanded of it with the funds it has, that means going through the state and ditching what it shouldn't be doing, doing stuff it should be doing more efficiently, and getting the state off the backs of the people and business. But so far I don't see much evidence of this message coming from Osborne or Cameron, instead I feel that they are comfortable tying themselves to Labour's spending plans, which means they don't have to argue an economic case.

[Traditionalist]

The problem is that the Cameroons purged the Candidates List of those who they thought were unsupportive of the "modernising project".

The new intake, dominated by Priority Listers, will be made up of Westminster villagers like Nick Boles, green authoritarians like Zac Goldsmith and leftist Europhiles like Anna Soubry and Jane Ellison. There will be few, if any, successful businessmen and entrepreneurs.

Cameron, like Blair, will find it very difficult to find Ministers who are capable of running departments and defeating the vested interests. That will be the true legacy of Francis Maude, Bernard Jenkin, John Maples, Shireen Ritchie and the Women2Lose harpies.

[Edward Huxley]

On green issues: good to see a change of heart albeit only a small one. Presumably he supports the building of thousands of useless and unsightly wind turbines in the countryside and round our coasts.

Economic policy. He doesn`t seem to understand that the EU continues to take millions off us every day. Not much hope unless that is stopped. "In Europe but not ruled by Europe" is still official party policy.

[Helen]

Matching Labour spending on the NHS without reining the waste and inefficience and without serious reforms, and on other public spending without even looking at tax cuts and spending cuts is not just unpopular (contrary to what politicians think people are not that stupid), it is also an invitation to the government to increase spending in the next two years, hire more and more useless people and run further into debt. Don't worry, the Tories will cover it all by raising taxes. I have heard of more intelligent Opposition policies.

[snegchui]

I agree with Iain at the top but phrase it slightly differently. The core thing needed now is effective service delivery of what is there in the state sector and that is just not happening at the moment.
Garrity grumpy gits are needed who understand the difference between a deliverable process and a soundbite, who understand procedures and impose the required discipline to ensure they are followed. There is a casual air of indifference and unwarranted lofty disdain to procedure, even in Grumpy Gordon's old dept of "How Many Rules Changed?" - how many data disks missing?

[Sally Roberts]

Oh Dear, "Traditionalist"! You are a Very Unhappy Traditionalist, aren't you? I see where you're coming from but to be rude about excellent candidates such as Anna Soubry and Jane Ellison is hardly the way forward!

....but then of course I'm only a "leftist Europhile" too of course so what do I know...?

[christina Speight]

Simultaneously POLITICSHOME blog reports from its 5,000 strong panel, PHI 5000, on the images of the parties. The outcome is reasonasbly encouraging for the party but the sting is in the tail ---
:" a reminder of the low regard that politicans from any party are held in that the 36% of people who think they have plenty of ideas is the highest score of any positive characteristic for any party. The Tories are the least unpopular party, rather than the most popular"

As far as policies are concerned I concur with most of the criticisms above. But Cameron's attitude worries me sick! Her has gathered around a bunch of new candidates who seem as shallow as you could find (Traditionalist i am with you in principle!)

He will not wake up to the multiple crises around us and seems to think that the collapse of of our finances and the credit crunch will vanish quickly. They won't for a long time. Clinging to his mantra of matching Labour's spending is impossible to achieve let alone desirable. On Europe he refuses to engage to Britain's advantage in the chaos of the Irish N O ,and sticks to another outdated mantra.

Os he an intelligent politician or a Dalek style automaton?

[Mark Hudson]

I think that traditionalist has a fair point. One of Cameron's biggest drawbacks is that he has arguably taken a less eurosceptic position than any leader since Major.

There's been an evident politically correct purge of candidates, but I suppose that's his right if he's in charge.

[alan phillips]

I'd like to see a commitment to give tax payers value for money. Like introducing an insurance and mot disc to display in cars, thus making those without be identified and removed from the highway. End the waste produced by Labour, show people the waste and dump it, cuts for our sake, not for the sake of it. Announce an audit on taking office and those who have abused the system to be made accountable. Commit to prison building programme, "Tough on Crime, tough on the 'caught doing' crime" The causes, will take years to address, the former is instantly (relevitly) achievible. Make the sentance passed be the minimum, with good behavour, not the reverse as is now.

[Sally Roberts]

"Tomorrow's Independent on Sunday is carrying a ComRes poll with these figures: Con 45% (+1), Lab 24% (-2) and LibDem 16% (-1)"

Despite the moans of Traditionalist and Christina Speight, David Cameron must be doing something right!!

[LS]

Oborne also oversells how bad the Tory position was last summer.

The worst July poll was YouGov/Telegraph (fieldwork ending 25 July) which was 32-41-16 (-9) and the worst poll last summer was Ipsos-Mori/Observer (fieldwork ending 26 September) which was 31-44-15 (-13). In fact, that 13 point deficit matched the worst Tory poll position since the last GE.

[lerct]

I think oborne's analysis is closer to the reality than the Editor's as it appears to be more onjective and less wishful thinking.

The big change was the arrival of Coulson. Cameron previously operated with lightweight press team and this gave him lift off. Hilton's influence has declined too so much more substance and less gimmicks.

As for Bush - cameron has distanced himself further if anything by continually hinting he would handle iraq differently. hague is vocal in this approach too.