Opinion poll findings are coming at us thick and fast at the moment. A new YouGov survey for The Telegraph finds the Conservatives maintaining a very healthy lead, as summarised in the graphic above. There are also more details of ComRes' latest poll for The Independent (we noted the headline numbers on Friday night). Here are ten of the most interesting poll findings:
Massive disapproval of Labour: 18% approve of the Government's record to date; 70% disapprove (YouGov, Telegraph).
Stable Tory lead: The major pollsters all put the Conservatives above 40%, mostly well above: 45% (YouGov), 46% (ComRes), 47% (Ipsos-MORI), 43% (ICM) and 41% (Populus).
Energised Tory vote: 96% of Tories plan to vote compared to just 77% of Labour voters (ComRes, Independent).
Cameron preferred to Brown (except in Scotland): By 52% to 34% voters believe that Cameron would be a better PM than Brown. Mr Brown only has an edge in one part of the UK; Scotland (ComRes, Independent).
Tories most trusted on economy: Conservatives now lead Labour by 37% to 23% on best placed to run the economy (YouGov, Telegraph). The gap was 49% to 27% in Labour's favour at the last General Election.
Economic pessimism: 75% expect UK economy to get worse over next 12 months (Ipsos MORI).
Conservatives are ready to govern: 53% of voters believe that the Conservatives are ready to rule; 37% don't (ComRes, Independent).
No longer the nasty party: 52% of voters see David Cameron as caring, only 28% say the same of the Conservatives as a whole (YouGov, Telegraph). 51% say that the Tories are no longer 'nasty' (ComRes, Independent).
Doing even better in marginals: Labour are third place in a Crosby Textor poll of thirty marginal seats, 1% behind the LibDems and 24% behind the Conservatives.
Brown should take a break: Two-thirds of Westminster insiders think that the best thing Brown can do over the summer is take a holiday (PoliticsHomeIndex).
You missed one:
"49 per cent agree with the statement "I don't really know what David Cameron stands for", with 44 per cent disagreeing."
Perhaps Sam's imminent departure to David Cameron's office means we aren't getting bad news on this blog anymore!
Posted by: NSD | July 28, 2008 at 09:34
NSD 09.34:
The 44% who therefore do know what Cameron stands for, broadly in line with the poll ratings, suggest strong "core" support, which is further backed up by the highly likely to vote numbers.
Posted by: John Moss | July 28, 2008 at 10:00
Don't underestimate the dormant power of Labour's Client State vote.
I saw a perfectly fit and healthy woman being interviewed in Glasgow East last week. When asked who she would be voting for she smirked and replied 'Labour', when asked why
"Because Labour gave me a free bus pass".
There are millions out there like her, all waiting to be galvanised by Polly Toynbee, and all living in fear of paying their own way in the world.
Posted by: London Tory | July 28, 2008 at 10:08
I think possibly the most important thing to note is the "energised" Conservative vote! The high turnout has been the key to our most recent victories - notably the Mayoral where the pro-Boris areas turned out more than the pro-Livingstone ones. This therefore means that in future campaigns we need to pay particular attention to our GOTV (including postal votes!) as doing so will pay dividends.
Posted by: Sally Roberts | July 28, 2008 at 10:12
Yes, Sally is right, and is backed up by the relatively high turnouts accompanying the huge anti-Labour swings in Crewe and Galsgow E. It's not just Labour people staying at home, it's actual switching which indicates a much stronger overturn of opinion.
Posted by: clive elliot | July 28, 2008 at 10:34
I agee wth London Tory. I doubt that Labour support will ever really fall much below 32-33% in a 'real' election. The Labour Party have been skilful in creating too many people who are (or see themselves)as beholden to them for their livelehoods.
We must not get complacent.
5
Posted by: Malcolm Dunn | July 28, 2008 at 10:35
May 1st was not so much an endorsement of Boris- a star though he is- but more about the 'get up and goers' in Zones 5 and 6 saying 'enough' to Livingstone and the Diane Abbott Tendency in Freeloading Labour. It was interesting that the busiest polling stations- who delivered the biggest Tory vote- were those where people voted AFTER WORK.
A possible hint there, in the sort of people we need to galvanise in the General Election.
Posted by: London Tory | July 28, 2008 at 11:15
The Church Street by election in North Westminster returned a whopping 53% Tory vote with a massive doubling in vote showing how strong the Tory brand is in London. I find even the Foreign Office takes my work in the European Parliament more seriously (yes even Tory MEPs are being monitored for those who dismiss us MEPs as members of a mere talking shop) so even the mandarins are waking-up to the strong possibility in a change in the political colour of their masters!
Posted by: Dr Charles Tannock MEP | July 28, 2008 at 15:50
We lib Dems still holding up above the level of last October, when we very sadly
were forced to decopitate our leader. I believe we will resume our stupendous m
omentum at the party conference when people can see we have all the answers to t
omorow. My idea is we overtake the labour goverment at Christmas, and then turn
our fire on the Tories overtaking them about May 2009, with that overall majorit
y following in May 2010. It's a great fabulous time to be a Lib dem.
Posted by: Gloy Plopwell | July 28, 2008 at 16:45
Gloy, don't you mean decapitate? De-cop-itate might be the sort of thing Mark Oaten is interested in, but not as a punishment for your shambolic poll performance!
Posted by: Cleethorpes Rock | July 28, 2008 at 17:40