SNP overtake Labour, but only a third of Scots want independence

Less than two weeks before the Glasgow East by-election, the SNP are polling ahead of Labour on voting intentions for Westminster elections for the first time. A YouGov poll for the Telegraph puts them at 33% to Labour's 29% in Scotland, with the Conservatives on 20%. Anthony Wells calculates that:

"These figures - if repeated at an actual general election - would represent a massive switch in support. On a uniform swing it would produce 31 seats for Labour (down 10), 14 seats for the SNP (up 8), 10 for the Lib Dems (down 1) and 4 for the Conservatives."

The poll also shows however that 48% to 36% of Scots are against independence.

3pm: Statement from Annabel Goldie:

“This poll confirms two trends which are increasingly evident in Scotland – firstly, that the Liberal Democrats have become an irrelevance. Scottish politics is now a three horse race, and whilst we are still currently the third horse, Scottish Conservatives are closing the gap on Labour. Secondly, and Alex Salmond should look away now, this is yet more decisive confirmation that Scots do not want independence, in any shape, way or form. No matter how the question is put, the separatists never win the vote. Hardworking Scots, in Glasgow East and throughout the country, want to focus on the issues and problems of today, not imagine tomorrow’s nightmares posed by risky constitutional upheaval.”

Comments

[Mark Fulford]

I hope it's not true... I've backed Labour.

Brown has certainly redefined the political landscape of Britain. Before him it would have been unimaginable that a Scottish Labour Prime Minister might lose a 40% majority in a Scottish city. If he does lose, bets on how long he'll last will be measured in seconds.

Thank goodness they’ve got Harman standing by!

[David_McD]

"Thank goodness they’ve got Harman standing by!"

Eeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeek!!!!!!!!!

[tally]

only a third? that's a lot.

[Peter]

The LD's are on 14% with a seat projection of 10. We are on 20% with a seat projection of 4.
This demonstrates an enormous inequity in the seat distribution of Scotland!

[Tim Roll-Pickering]

Interesting. The SNP are seemingly trying to run Scotland well to prove that independence can work. The problem is that all international precedent suggests that when the existing political system is working reasonably well and delivering then support for alternative models, particularly separation, diminishes on the "if it ain't broke don't fix it" principle.

However if they could show that Scotland was hampered then the status quo *wouldn't* be working so well. So in a way the battle is going to be determined in England - an English backlash, particularly over funding, that weakens Scotland's position or an "anti-Scottish government" imposing unpopular measures on Scotland (especially Scotland as Scotland, although Scotland as part of the UK is also vulnerable) despite being rejected there are the kind of things that will play to the SNP's advantage. Their ability to get the budget through the Scottish Parliament has little impact.

[Jake]

There will be plenty of tactical voting for the SNP. Many people will vote for any party which is likely to oust Labour, including, I suspect, many otherwise normally Tory supporters.

The SNP will proclaim these votes to be votes for independence but they won't necessarily be. That must left to a referendum.

The usual emphasis on Scotland and ignoring of England. If the same poll were conducted in England the vote for English independence and England "leaving the Union"
(as the journalistas like to phrase it)
is likely to exceed the corresponding vote in Scotland.

Reason: Scotland is now an increasingly satisfied country at home with itself and its parliament and home rule. The majority see no reason to upset the applecart with a venture into complete independence.

England on th either hand is a deeply dissatisfied society uneasy with parliament and the political class. Mainly because we are ruled by a British parliament which has no loyalty to England only to place called "Britain ". More like a parliament and government of occupation.
The present swing to the Conservatives is mainly a measure of disgust with Labour.

Until the Conservatives commit themselves to a referendum in England on English self rule via an English parliament and government
( for which they would gain the credit)
this situation will not change.

[Scott]

I find the fact that less than half of those who responded are not content with the constitutional status quo a far more interesting statistic than those who support impendence.

Recent Whitehall figures show Scotland generates as much income as it spends. So cut off the Barnett and prepare to watch the sparks fly. The Union has always been something that is presented to Scotland as always doing well out of. The union is largely voluntary and every generation of Scots judges whether it's worth their while to continue it or not. Hitherto they have been scaremongered into believing it is. Scrapping of the Barnett may change that greatly.

But for all of our bluster we cant get away from the fact that when asked at least 1 in 3 people would actively want to dissolve the state they live in.

[Jake]

Its up to 1 in 2 in England.

[wtf]

Jake, you need to remember that the English people don't want a devolved English Parliament. The English Democrats put this to the British people at election time, but only 0.6% of people voted for them at the Henley by-election. They only got 0.4% and 0.6% at the Crewe and Nantwhich by-election and Sedgefield by-election.

Their best result was in David Davis's circus of an election in Haltemprice. They'll never repeat that performance under any normal circumstances.

[Paul D]

Yes, but Peter, we were on 33% in Britain and got 198 seats. They were on 23% and got 63 seats

I don't think we really want to go too far down that road

[Scott]

Auntie Annabel says:

"this is yet more decisive confirmation that Scots do not want independence, in any shape, way or form. No matter how the question is put, the separatists never win the vote."

..and only 48% approve of the Union. Not exaclty resounding either Frau Goldie.

Erm has she actually looked at the detail of the poll-

On Independence and Europe:

11% believe that Scotland should continue to be represented by the UK in the EU

66% believe Scotland should become an independent member of the EU

17% believe we should leave the EU

5% don’t know

[John Craig]

When Labour lose Glascow East, my money is on Jack Straw as PM and an Autumn election

[RichardJ]

"So in a way the battle is going to be determined in England - an English backlash, particularly over funding, that weakens Scotland's position"

Thing is, if Scotland was independent it would get no money from us!

[Andrew Bradley]

Why is it that only one third of Scots want independence when considerably more English long for Scottish Independence.

Our (English) taxes would go down, the subsidy of Scotland by English taxpayers would cease and every time we put on the radio we would not have to hear a Scottish Labour Minister.

[Jake]

"you need to remember that the English people don't want a devolved English Parliament" wtf

You need to remember wtf that Blair inadvertently let slip in a interview with the Yorkshire Post in early 2006 that if there were to be referendum in England on an English parliament within the British Union then in his opinion it would be "passed overwhelmingly ". His very words.

Blair has many faults.He is sly, devious and morally shallow. Political perception was never one of them.

[wtf]

Jake, you're going to take the word of a man you describe as "sly, devious and morally shallow" over the clearly expressed wishes of the English electorate in Sedgefield, Henley and Crewe and Nantwich.

[Jake]

wtf, being compelled to retreat into the obtuse is almost the same as conceding the argument.

Surely it is perfectly plain to anyone who has even an inkling of a democratic and fair political process that until the people of England are presented with the same opportunity as that accorded by the British state to the people of Scotland in the 1997 referendum asking them if they wanted a Scottish parliament, then we do not know for sure what the feelings of England would be.(A by election fought on a different question is not comparable.)

Nevertheless, Blair strongly suspected an English referndum would be met with overwhelming approval.

I suspect he is right.

I suspect that most of the British political class are reluctantly coming to the same conclusion too in much the same way as they reluctantly accepted votes for women in the end.

[Yet Another Anon]

The English Democrats put this to the British people at election time, but only 0.6% of people voted for them at the Henley by-election. They only got 0.4% and 0.6% at the Crewe and Nantwhich by-election and Sedgefield by-election.
The English Democrats have a range of policies, they are not solely standing on a platform of establishing an English Parliament and many politicians in other parties support the same policy - it's a matter not just of particular policies, but also policy priority and other policies a party may have, for example Unionists supporting an English Parliament are going to be put off voting for the English Democrats because of their policy of breaking up the UK, just as back in the days when Labour opposed devolution in Scotland and Wales, a lot of people wanting devolution still voted for them.

Just as there are many who want to leave the EU who vote for the 3 main parties - elections aren't decided on single issues which is one of the major flaws in David Davis's position in forcing the by-election, as well as the fact that holding a by-election on Counter Terrorist legislation in Haltemprice and Howden is a bit like holding one on the 1993 Railways Bill in Orkney and Shetland, it's one seat out of 650, it's not a typical seat and the overwhelming majority of the terrorist incidents occur in towns and cities and he was standing as the Official Conservative candidate in a safe Conservative seat - some of the people yesterday were voting on issues relating to those David Davis raised, most though weren't, most were voting on the economy, tax and spending, the Smoking Ban, the Lisbon Treaty - a range of issues.

[Sean Fear]

"Why is it that only one third of Scots want independence when considerably more English long for Scottish Independence"

I suspect that most feel some irritation towards some Scottish demands, but don't actually want to dissolve the UK.

[Dave McEwan Hill]

A poll done last week and every bit as reliable as this You Gov poll showed for independence 39% with against independence 41%.
There has beren a succession of polls on this issue over the last few years and they appear to provide the result that is desired by whoever commissions it.

The SNP isn't presently compaigning on the Independence issue. When it does attitudes will harden. The most significant difference is that most Scots are no longer afraid of independence and a majority are relaxed on the issue.

[Iain Ballantyne]

I am 100% proud to be Britsh. and i live in Edinburgh, the SNP are jsut asbad s Labour in Government here, if not worse. they use anything the can to cause division.

People shoud not vote the SNP if they support Britain. they should support the Scottish Conservative & Unionist Party. It is the main stream media which wants the SNP in Scotland not the people.

When the Conservatives lay out our plans people support them, And i hope we win Big in eery seat next election. I want a 100% Tory Parliament. Because the Tories are the oly party with good ideas

[Joe James Broughton]

The SNP will have a honeymoon for some time to come, and it will affect the General Election.

But the Scottish people do not want total independence - just to shake things up a bit. And the SNP has embarked on an astonishing spending spree - the cheques will come in and the chickens.

The Scottish Tories achieved slightly better results in May 2007 in a number of targets, and Annabel Goldie has provided constructive opposition, making our party relevant again - it matters.

[Dave McEwan Hill]

Actually, the SNP has cut government spending very clearly in many areas and is involved in a very significant redistribution exercise at the moment.
The SNP does not want to break up the United Kingdom. This repetitive and meaningless chant seemms to be all the unionists have to offer at the Glasgow East by election. It has already announced that it will keep the Queen etc. It seeks the same constitutional status as, for instance, New Zealand.

[Ken Stevens]

Yet Another Anon
"..the English Democrats because of their policy of breaking up the UK.."

ED is unionist.
- unless you regard an English Parliament as constituting such a break-up.

[Didactophobe]

"There has beren a succession of polls on this issue over the last few years and they appear to provide the result that is desired by whoever commissions it."

- Up to a point. However, they never show a majority in favour of independence. The "66% believe Scotland should become an independent member of the EU" quoted by Scott was in response to an extremely disingenuous question which implied that this is a completely separate issue to Scotland's constitutional status within the UK.

[Dave McEwan Hill]

Sorry, but reputable polls found a majority in favour of Independence twice in the last eight months.
It is too close to call which is why the unionists are blocking a referendum and it remains the case that there are more Scots vehemently in favour of Independence and prepared to work their butts off for it than there are Scots vehemently against it which on a probable differential turnout makes any referendum a dangerous affair for the unionists.
Remember - the nationalists only have to win once.
I am alerted to look out for some deserting of sinking ships in the very near future.

[Barry]

Jake, I live in England and I think the idea of an English Parliament is dangerous rubbish. I only wish the party that still calls itself the Conservative and UNIONIST Party would go back to its original policy of opposing devolution as this was about the one thing that John Major was right about.

P.S I think the Henley-Upon-Thames, Sedgefield and Crewe and Nantwich by-elections show the real level of support the EDs have. For many reasons, the Haltemprice and Howden by-election was abnormal.

[Yet Another Anon]

ED is unionist.
- unless you regard an English Parliament as constituting such a break-up.
They have always been allied with the SNP and Plaid Cymru and sit in the same group, for many years their policy was to support the Westminster Parliament becoming the English Parliament and there not being a UK Parliament with it being replaced by a Council of the Isles - there would cease to be a UK military and each of the former nations of the UK would then have to make their own provisions, they abandoned this policy a couple of years ago because they didn't think it was likely to happen, not because they had ceased wanting it to happen, they are not a Unionist Party unlike UKIP, Veritas or the Popular Alliance.

[Yet Another Anon]

In fact the English Democrats recent manifesto says the following:
On leaving the EU, we would hope and expect that the other UK nations would likewise leave in order to preserve a cohesive British state and avoid unnecessary division. In the event of one or more of the other UK nations preferring to remain in the EU – then England should leave the EU nonetheless, unilaterally if necessary.
A Unionist position would be that the UK should leave the EU, not that somehow it would be up to individual parts of the UK as to whether they left the EU or not whether there were devolved parliaments or not, as soon as different parts of the UK start making constitutional decisions seperate from the rest it ceases to be the UK, I support a Federal UK system with a consistent system of devolution throughout.

[Matt Wright]

Andrew Bradley wrote: "Our (English) taxes would go down, the subsidy of Scotland by English taxpayers would cease and every time we put on the radio we would not have to hear a Scottish Labour Minister".

But Andrew where does this attitude end? You could substitute "Liverpool" or "Newcastle" or some other part of Britain for "Scotland" and create even further divisions. I'm sorry but notwithstanding issues about the Barnett Formula etc, there are unpleasant overtones in your statement to put it mildly.

[Dave McEwan Hill]

Well said, Matt Wright. There is,of course, no subsidy of the Scots by English taxpayers and this is a dangerous game to play if you value the Union.
As I want to dissolve the Union such talk should encourage me but I want England and Scotland to a split on very amicable terms and not because unscrupulous right wing elements think it a good idea to cause resentment beween our two nations to bring in a Tory Government.
A Tory Government is coming in anyway - as is an independent Scotland.