Ipsos MORI: Tories at 47%

The Conservatives are on 47%, Labour 27% and the LibDems on just 15%.  More here.

Comments

[London Tory]

The Lib Dems are proving that tax cutting policies are not popular.

L.O.L

[Craig Barrett]

On those figures, at least according to Electoral Calculus, the LibDems are down to 20 seats with Clegg, Huhne and Cable all suffering "decapitation".

This time last year, the LibDems were warning us that Nick Clegg was going to give us a real run for our money. I have to say, I'm still waiting because it seems to me that Project Clegg has been a bit of a failure.

[Ken Stevens]

So, who are the 9% of Tory supporters who are not dissatisfied with the way Gordon Brown is doing his prime ministerial job?

[MrB]

"Project Clegg has been a bit of a failure. "

It seems to me they thought he was their Cameron. The fatal flaw is that people aren't going to be more attracted by "Cameron Lite" than they are by the real deal. They need someone to contrast with the other parties.

[Cleethorpes Rock]

Liberals- hahahahahahahahahaha

They must be kicking themselves for not getting Cable to stand.

[Shaun Bennett]

"So, who are the 9% of Tory supporters who are not dissatisfied with the way Gordon Brown is doing his prime ministerial job?"
They probably misinterpreted the question. Lets face it, which of us are really dissatisfied with Brown-considering that he has put us on 47% in the latest poll?! The scale that we are now hammering Labour is almost getting embarrassing!

[Deus Ex Machina]

one can almost taste the hubris. the lesson from this poll is that we have lot to do to convince voters that we are a viable alternative. we shouldn't concern ourselves with Brown's ratings. remember that Labour were polling over 50% at points during their last term in opposition

[Craig Barrett]

"It seems to me they thought he was their Cameron. The fatal flaw is that people aren't going to be more attracted by "Cameron Lite" than they are by the real deal. They need someone to contrast with the other parties."

Plus, when it comes to a potential for a change of government, support for both main parties will shore up - I can't see people wasting their vote on a party which is never going to get into power.

[eugene]

I feel tax cutting policies are popular- it is just that no one believes it from the LibDems who have been for upping taxes since their formation.

[Graham Doll]

It's high time Liberal MPs followed their ex-supporters and got off the fence. Let's hope we see some defections in the run up to the election.

[Comstock]

E.C. is predicting a Tory majority over 200 which is silly.

I do expect you to win, and in all likelyhood get an overall majority, but one that big is a crazy prediction.

Glasgow East gets even more crucial.

[Yogi]

I agree with Eugene - one more fact is that pledge of lower taxes from a party that has a 1000 to 1 chance of holding the balance of power, let alone forming a government is ludicruous.

We still need to be vigilant and must always remember that the BBC will be constantly putting us under the microscope and try to manufacture a crisis or two out of thin air. I can picture the TV news headlines screaming 'Tories in total disarray over meteorite crashing on Alex Ferguson's head' to be followed by 'disgraced Tory shadow minister for CMS quitting over his insensitive remarks'.

Discipline is very crucial over the next 22 months.

[Letters From A Tory]

Just goes to show how irrelevant the Lib Dems have become. They have no substance or style.

[Paul D]

I doubt we'll see (m)any Lib Dems defecting to us - as a consequence of early selection most seats which are either safe or marginal for us have candidates in place. I can't see many coming without the promise of either a plum seat or the chance to fight the one they currently occupy

[Raj]

one can almost taste the hubris. the lesson from this poll is that we have lot to do to convince voters that we are a viable alternative. we shouldn't concern ourselves with Brown's ratings. remember that Labour were polling over 50% at points during their last term in opposition

Except that the polls were heavily biased towards Labour before 1997, such that the pollsters have been doing their best to change that.

In 1997 Labour did very well, but not nearly as well as the polls suggested. Yet today YouGov (I believe) pretty accurately predicted the London Mayoral Election, and polls were closer to the 2005 election results than they had been for the 1997 results.

So the Tories probably are doing as well as the polls suggest, which would be even better than Labour was actually doing prior to 1997 (as the polls were out by quite a bit).

[Simon R]

I don't expect Clegg et al to lose their seats -high profile MP's will obviously have something of an advantage in bucking national trends. I do expect Clegg will have to go after the election though, as I predicted, he's been an embarrasment. They will have Cable after this, who will try and rebuild what's left.

[David Belchamber]

We could use Vince Cable!

[Votedave]

Vince Cable is already 65. Would he want to lead a political party until the general election after next and beyond?

[Oberon Houston]

The LibDems were always going to do badly in the face of a resurgent Tory party, they are the vote of dissafection, not serious government. We need to be ready for a really unprincipled sneaky campaign by them though. Our election machine is much better now though.

[RichardJ]

"So, who are the 9% of Tory supporters who are not dissatisfied with the way Gordon Brown is doing his prime ministerial job?"

The Daily Telegraph?

[Justin Hinchcliffe]

I suspect they are the BOO people in the Party...

[Dave McEwan Hill]

The LibDems are now irrelevant. They were being used by a Blair supporting media to deflect disaaffected voters away from voting Tory.
Now that the Tories are flavour of the year again in the media the LibDems can be ignored

[Sam R]

Who are the 9% of Tory supporters who are not dissatisfied with the way Gordon Brown is doing his prime ministerial job? (Ken Stevens, 16.38).
They didn't ask me but, I think he is doing an excellent job - best recruiting sergeant we have!

[Libertarian]

Justin Hinchcliff - "I suspect they are the BOO people in the Party..."

Typical smear from our resident EU lackey. Justin is always the first to cry to the Editor when someone criticises him. He a nauseating and sanctimonious hypocrite who would surrender our democracy to the Eurotrash scum in Brussels.

[Justin Hinchcliffe]

And sweat dreams to you too, Libertarian.

[South West London Activist]

Craig Barrett - wonderful news that Cable may be due for the chop. At last!

Will rejoice to see the end of that arch political opportunist who is also a two-faced hypocrite.

Dave McEwan Hill – if only the Yellow Peril could be ignored! You’re SNP – in Scotland – not living in South West London in a council regime under the jackboot of tax-guzzling Liberals who think they are running a banana republic. This yellow shower make a mockery of Cleggover’s tax cutting agenda. LOL!

[Sam Tarran]

I agree with Dave McEwan Hill on the Lib-Dems becoming an irrelevence to the MSM after David Cameron 're-allignment' of the Conservative Party. It does seem, for all the Lib-Dems' talking up of themselves for the last few years, that the two-party system is here to stay. And thank the Lord for it.

[Mr Angry]

Oh come on the lot of you, but especially Justin and Libertarian; It is obvious that the 9% are those who thought a little deeper about the question asked and are in fact delighted at the job that Gordon Brown is doing in destroying the Labour government and ensuring a Tory victory at the next election. I daresay that a large number of the Shadow Cabinet could be counted amongst that 9%. Me too for that matter.

[grumpy old man]

I agree with Dave B about Vince Cable. He is a parliamentary gem, and unlike most MP's thinks for himself. I would suggest that, if he gets back against all odds, he would be a no-brainer choice for Speaker.

[MAPA]

The real story is that LAbour is starting to climb back 3 polls 27/28% from 25% except for yougov 24/25(as usual).

See it move onto the low 30's by October after the conference season starts.

Then ...

[Dave McEwan Hill]

We can expect Gordon Brown to get it a bit easier over the next immediate period. The last thing the powers-that-be want is for Brown to be taken down. What they want is for the next election to be fought with Labour with a lame duck leader. So his position will be slightly consolidated at the moment. As we approach the next election with Brown still in place as PM the dogs of the mass media will be loosed on him again.