ConservativeHome's ToryDiary

Parallels with 1995-97 (and differences)

Rob Wilson MP has already done a good demolition job on the theory that flatters Brown by comparing him to John Major.  This week's Spectator leader is drawing parallels between the leadership speculation that undermined Mr Major and that which is now undermining Mr Brown:

"Labour’s behaviour now closely resembles that of the Tories before and immediately after the 1997 election. This week, all the talk has been of a potential ‘dream ticket’ bringing together David Miliband and Alan Johnson — a remarkably close echo of those in the mid-Nineties who called for a Portillo–Heseltine duumvirate. Curious alliances are proposed. Just as the Europhile Kenneth Clarke and Eurosceptic John Redwood formed an axis in 1997 in a (doomed) attempt to deny William Hague the Tory leadership, so in 2008 there is bizarre talk of an insurgent alliance of neo-Blairites and the left-wing Compass group. And, as in the Major years and their grisly aftermath, absolutely anyone can be a leadership hopeful: for Redwood in 1995 and 1997, read Harriet Harman in 2008."

There are similarities between now and that period but there are also very big differences.  Major enjoyed a growing economy, for example.  Brown's economic chickens are coming home to roost.  Major had his own mandate from the electorate.  Brown doesn't and is much less personally popular than Major.  Redwood offered a very clear policy alternative.  Miliband's article yesterday was pretty mushy.  The calibre of the potential successors to Major was also much higher.  Clarke, Heseltine, Howard and Portillo, for example, could all have assumed the Tory leadership (and after serious experience of Cabinet) - although none of them uncontroversially.  Only Straw has the weight of the people around Major.

We did have two bigger disadvantages then: (1) We'd be in office longer and people were more bored, (2) Blair enjoyed satisfaction ratings higher than Cameron (although Cameron still has time to change that).

Labour's leadership crisis

Today's extraordinarily self-indulgent article by David Miliband in The Guardian - the one that doesn't mention the Prime Minister once - may mark the beginning of the end for Gordon Brown.  So what are we to make of it all?  A few thoughts:

It's difficult to feel sorry for Mr Brown.  There is talk of mass resignations from the Labour frontbench if Brown doesn't go voluntarily. This is reminiscent of the wave of PPS resignations that precipitated Blair's resignation. The Brownites coordinated that wave. What goes around comes around, as they say.  John Howard was threatened with mass resignations before last year's Australian elections and he called his critics' bluff.  He survived as leader but was heavily defeated at the General Election.

Brown may not budge. It's still quite possible that Brown won't quit even if frontbenchers do resign.  The one thing that the Brownites excel at is internal party warfare. Look out for strong briefing against Miliband appearing in the papers over the next few days.

What's the hurry? Unless the new leader is prepared to hold an immediate General Election there isn't much point changing the leader before next year's local and European elections. Gordon Brown might as well take the heat for bad results from them. 

Conservatives to the right, LibDems to the left, SNP to the north

It's into the valley of political death for Gordon Brown.  He now faces a triple squeeze.  It may not be as credible as the threat from the Tories in England and Wales and from the SNP in Scotland but Nick Clegg has used his summer message to signal a shift of resources to fifty Lab-Lib marginals, mainly in northern England.  Hat tip to Jonathan Isaby for spotting the video.  Jonathan analyses Nick Clegg's latest tactical u-turn here.

Could a Miliband-Johnson 'dream ticket' revive Labour?

The first post-Glasgow East poll appears this morning, in The Times.  The Populus poll finds Labour 16% adrift and the Tories heading for a majority of 176 according to the ConservativeHome poll of polls' projection.

Can Labour do anything to turn this round?  The Mail talks about a 'dream ticket' of Miliband and Johnson reviving Labour.

A survey of Tory members at the end of last month found that Mr Johnson was seen as the most "dangerous" opponent for the Conservatives, with the Foreign Secretary a few percentage points behind.  Ten times as many members 'feared' either Johnson or Miliband as 'feared' Brown. Here are the full results:

Tory members have a good record in this area.  Last year they predicted by sixteen-to-one that Brown would be a less effective leader than Blair.

Annabel Goldie denies secret talks with SNP

This is the front page 'exclusive' in today's Scottish Daily Mail:

The story - not online - alleges:

• A Tory plan to "hugely increase the powers of the Scottish Executive" in return for keeping Scotland in the Union.
• A "senior Tory insider" told the Mail's John Robertson of a "warm and friendly relationship" between the SNP and Tories "with an eye to mutual political advantage".
• The Mail says the gain for an incoming Tory government would be that they could claim to have saved the Union.  Alex Salmond would be able to claim extra powers and avoid a referendum on independence that polls suggest he would lose.

The Scottish Conservatives have denied that secret talks are taking place.  Annabel Goldie issued this statement:

"No such talks have taken place. A review of devolution is currently being conducted by the Calman Commission.”

Editorial comment: "The plan doesn't appear to make much sense.  Extra powers for Holyrood may win a temporary accommodation with the nationalists for a few years but would only take Scotland one step closer to independence.  We hope there is no truth in the story and in other rumours that the Conservatives are willing to dilute plans for English votes for English laws and reform of the Barnett formula in return for a 'peace deal' with the victors of Glasgow East."

The right and wrong ways to attack Labour

CCHQ has just released a very good briefing on how Labour is lurching to the left.  The briefing (a pdf of which is here) notes how Labour is giving more and more favours to their union paymasters (also see The Times). It also details 'lurches to the left' including higher taxes, ending of the fiscal rules, nationalising Northern Rock, the Agency Workers Directive and restricting the freedom of Academy schools.

This substantive criticism of Brown is the right way to go forward.  For the reasons highlighted by Nadine Dorries MP we must avoid personal attacks on Brown.

Ten opinion poll findings

Opinion poll findings are coming at us thick and fast at the moment.  A new YouGov survey for The Telegraph finds the Conservatives maintaining a very healthy lead, as summarised in the graphic above.  There are also more details of ComRes' latest poll for The Independent (we noted the headline numbers on Friday night).  Here are ten of the most interesting poll findings:

Massive disapproval of Labour: 18% approve of the Government's record to date; 70% disapprove (YouGov, Telegraph).

Stable Tory lead: The major pollsters all put the Conservatives above 40%, mostly well above: 45% (YouGov), 46% (ComRes), 47% (Ipsos-MORI), 43% (ICM) and 41% (Populus).

Energised Tory vote: 96% of Tories plan to vote compared to just 77% of Labour voters (ComRes, Independent).

Cameron preferred to Brown (except in Scotland): By 52% to 34% voters believe that Cameron would be a better PM than Brown.  Mr Brown only has an edge in one part of the UK; Scotland (ComRes, Independent).

Tories most trusted on economy: Conservatives now lead Labour by 37% to 23% on best placed to run the economy (YouGov, Telegraph).  The gap was 49% to 27% in Labour's favour at the last General Election.

Economic pessimism: 75% expect UK economy to get worse over next 12 months (Ipsos MORI).

Conservatives are ready to govern: 53% of voters believe that the Conservatives are ready to rule; 37% don't (ComRes, Independent).

No longer the nasty party: 52% of voters see David Cameron as caring, only 28% say the same of the Conservatives as a whole (YouGov, Telegraph).  51% say that the Tories are no longer 'nasty' (ComRes, Independent).

Doing even better in marginals: Labour are third place in a Crosby Textor poll of thirty marginal seats, 1% behind the LibDems and 24% behind the Conservatives.

Brown should take a break: Two-thirds of Westminster insiders think that the best thing Brown can do over the summer is take a holiday (PoliticsHomeIndex).

Eight Tory lessons for the US Republicans

As we did for Mike Gerson, ConservativeHome recently arranged a three day visit to the UK for Fred Barnes, Executive Editor of America's Weekly Standard.  Our programme for Fred involved about fifteen meetings, including with George Osborne, Michael Gove and Iain Duncan Smith (politicians); Martin Bright, Janet Daley and Daniel Finkelstein (commentators); plus Andrew Cooper, Rick Nye and Stephan Shakespeare (pollsters).  The New York Times' David Brooks is our next guest.

Fred has now written up his visit as the cover piece in the latest edition of TWS.  It's one of the very best summaries of Project Cameron that we've ever read.  He identifies the following main lessons that the Conservatives of the UK can teach the Conservatives of the US.  He unpacks each lesson in his article but here they are as bullet points:

1. It takes time... to rebuild voters' trust
2. 'It's not about ideology. It's about you.'  Personalities as well as policies needed reforming.
3. 'Broader ground.'  Social justice and green issues have been added to the Tory pitch.
4. Don't ignore elites*.  The BBC and progressives have been cultivated.
5. Co-opt liberal ends and capture liberal jargon.  The Tories have colonised the left-wing term of social justice with centre right ideas.
6. Social psychology.  Nudging etc.
7. You need a leader.  After November, if McCain loses, the Republicans will lack an obvious leader.
8. Forget slogans.

Read the full piece.

* David Frum fears the GOP has done this.  Meeting Tim Montgomerie last week he noted that, for example, there is not a single economist that supports the Republicans at the University of Chicago.

Does it matter that 19 of 29 shadow cabinet ministers are millionaires?

That's the result of research by the News of the World - summarised in the graphic on the right.

An interesting journalistic exercise but is it of any interest to voters?  Should it be of any interest to voters?

Fraser Nelson answers 'yes'.

Here are some questions you might like to answer:

Given that most shadow cabinet ministers are so wealthy is it time that they stopped pursuing so many outside interests and focused on their frontbench briefs?

Do the nineteen millionaires in the shadow cabinet have the authority to order backbenchers (who 'only' have the basic parliamentary remuneration) to vote against higher MPs' pay?

Will voters be impressed by the ability of these Conservatives to make money?  Hammond and Hunt, in particular, are successful entrepreneurs.  As Fraser writes: "The News of the World research shows it’s almost all earned rather than inherited because Cameron’s team is mix of people who have been successful in diverse fields."  A shadow cabinet of business people (the Conservatives) is more likely to succeed than a Cabinet of political lifers (Labour).

Will voters conclude that Conservatives are not like normal people - insulated from the current economic realities of falling disposable incomes?

Labour are in third place in key marginals

A Crosby Textor survey of 1,054 voters in the Tories' top thirty target seats reveals that the Conservative lead may well be larger than in national polls.

The poll, commissioned by Flying Matters and published in tomorrow's Sunday Telegraph, finds Tories 24% ahead of Labour and Labour 1% behind the LibDems.

The poll will pile the pressure on an already embattled Gordon Brown.  Over at CentreRight Louise Bagshawe can't believe that the PM will last until the election.  Peter Franklin blogs that he'll carry on until the bitter end.

Yo Cameron

Dave and Barack seem to have got on well - Cameron gave Obama a box of CDs of his favourite bands, including The Smiths, Radiohead, Gorillaz and Lily Allen when they met in Parliament.

Added to that, ABC news has picked up a conversation between the two of them about finding time in the diary to take off time off and think, claiming they were unaware they were being recorded.

It's not quite a Yo Blair moment but it is an interesting insight:

"You should be on the beach," Cameron told Obama. "You need a break. Well, you need to be able to keep your head together."

"You've got to refresh yourself," agreed Obama.

"Do you have a break at all?" asked Cameron.

"I have not," said Obama. "I am going to take a week in August. But I agree with you that somebody, somebody who had worked in the White House who -- not Clinton himself, but somebody who had been close to the process --  said that, should we be successful, that actually the most important thing you need to do is to have big chunks of time during the day when all you're doing is thinking. And the biggest mistake that a lot of these folks make is just feeling as if you have to be -- "

"These guys just chalk your diary up," said Cameron, referring to a packed schedule.

"Right," Obama said. "In 15 minute increments …"

"We call it the dentist's waiting room," Cameron said. "You have to scrap that because you've got to have time."

"And, well, and you start making mistakes," Obama said, "or you lose the big picture. Or you lose a sense of, I think you lose a feel-- "

"Your feeling," interrupted Cameron. "And that is exactly what politics is all about. The judgment you bring to make decisions."

"That's exactly right," Obama said. "And the truth is that we've got a bunch of smart people, I think, who know ten times more than we do about the specifics of the topics. And so if what you're trying to do is micromanage and solve everything then you end up being a dilettante but you have to have enough knowledge to make good judgments about the choices that are presented to you."

"This sceptical isle"

In a big FT magazine feature today George Parker reviews the state of British euroscepticism, concluding that it is a "powerful political force that Cameron will do well to contain":

"David Cameron’s Conservative party is no longer split over Europe. The old pro-European wing has been routed: a Cameron government promises to be the most eurosceptic ever elected in Britain. The only debate is whether the battle with Brussels should take the form of guerrilla raids or a full-scale assault...

Eurosceptics like to point to polls showing headline hostility towards the EU, but deeper analysis shows that the public regard Europe as a marginal issue in their daily lives... Cameron’s problem is that he leads a party that is very interested in the issue. Ken Clarke says that the Tory grass-root members who choose parliamentary candidates will reject anyone who does not claim euroscepticism."

After the media made so much hay over bitter divisions in the parliamentary party caused by the EU, that it can now move forward as one on the issue is a good thing. The election of longtime eurosceptic David Cameron as Prime Minister would bring about a much-needed shot in the arm for democracy and accountability in Britain and the European Union.

Putting eurosceptic words into action will be a challenge but as a cause it is completely at one with the political agenda of devolving responsibility in a post-bureaucratic age, and whilst it doesn't rank above the cost of living in voters' concerns they certainly back it in principle with only 30% of them believing EU membership to be a good thing. Parker does score something of a hit on euroscepetic newspapers like the Sun, Times and Telegraph:

"if they really believed – as they sometimes claim – that Britain is being run from Brussels, it seems curious that none maintains a staff reporter in the EU capital."

The problem is - and this is a big challenge for EUscepticism, unlike the red herring that Parker throws in about the British increasingly liking Europe itself due to cheap flights - that whilst the barely scrutinised flow of legislation and regulation from Brussels is a hugely important issue... it's a very boring one for most people. Struggling newspapers don't even have reporters covering what goes on in the British parliament and British courts anymore, let alone hiring some to report on debates in Brussels and Strasbourg.

See below for Parker's main points on the causes of and challenges for euroscepticism...

A night cap to end a good day

Have you enjoyed today?  Labour's defeat in Glasgow East?  That new WebCameron video marking the last year.  Here's a night cap for you... "The Conservative Party enjoys a 22-point lead over Labour, according a poll by ComRes for The Independent. It is the biggest lead the Tories have ever enjoyed in a ComRes survey and would give David Cameron a majority of 236 if repeated at a general election."

The Tories are on 46% (unchanged), Labour are on 24% (down 1%) and the Liberal Democrats are on 18% (also unchanged):

"According to ComRes, the Tories are mobilising their core vote much more successfully than their rivals. Some 96 per cent of people who think of themselves as natural Tories plan to vote for the party, compared with 77 per cent of natural Labour supporters and 82 per cent of Liberal Democrat identifiers. Some 67 per cent of people who intend to vote Tory say they are “absolutely certain” to vote, compared with 61 per cent of Labour supporters and 55 per cent of Liberal Democrat backers."

Sweet dreams!

Could Trimble be a Conservative foreign minister?

With the prospect of a formal UUP-Conservative alliance the already strong chances of Lord Trimble, who joined the Conservative Party in April after having taken the Conservative whip in the Lords, getting a senior role in a Conservative Shadow Cabinet/Cabinet have been strengthened further.

As an internationally recognised politician and Nobel Peace Prize winner with a proven adeptness at diplomacy, foreign policy would be the obvious area for him. William Hague's disposition towards carrying the foreign policy brief into government would of course be the major factor in whether the top job in that area would be open to him, but another factor to consider is that in a Shadow Cabinet desperately lacking in experience of government Trimble's heavyweight status and experience as First Minister of Northern Ireland would bring some much-needed gravitas to the team.

As a widely-respected former elected politician Trimble should be able to overcome any doubts about a member of the House of Lords taking up a big role, and as a trustee of the Henry Jackson Society his liberal interventionist credentials would provide some much-needed balance to the dominant realist school of thought. Not to mention that he would no doubt get on well with McCain if he was the next US President, and if Obama was elected, well, he would be justified in calling in a favour or two!

Introducing ConservativeVault.com

We announced our intention to launch a wiki a few weeks ago, and are very pleased to make it public today under the name ConservativeVault.com.

It's basically an online encyclopedia for the Conservative Party and the wider conservative movement in Britain that will comprehensively cover people, debates and policies by harnessing the wisdom of the ConservativeHome crowd. Once it's found its feet and built up more content we're confident it will become an invaluable resource.

It struck us that many of the posts on here would be better off in a wiki that could incorporate the best of what readers would normally add in the comments into the actual article. Two of the pages we've started the wiki off with have been copied from ConservativeHome with that collaborative idea in mind - Harry Phibbs' 100 questions to ask your local council and Tim Montgomerie's "war and peace" account of the Conservative leadership race. Almost all content from now on will be generated by Wiki editors however, and down the line we intend to recognise and reward the most prolific and constructive contributors.

The Conservative AND Unionist Party

It's not often that political leaders can meet without their plans leaking but months of negotiations between the Conservatives and the Ulster Unionist Party have taken place without the Westminster village reporting on them.  Following much spadework by Shadow Northern Ireland Secretary Owen Paterson MP, David Cameron and the UUP's Reg Impey have announced a joint working party that may result in what Mr Cameron calls the "creation of a new mainstream political party".  The two men have authored a joint article for today's Daily Telegraph.

Up until the Anglo Irish Agreement of 1986 the two parties were formally linked and many Unionist MPs served in Conservative governments.  This initiative may see a return to those days but the UUP is a shadow of its former self.  It has just one MP at Westminster, Sylvia Hermon, and its former leader, David Trimble, defected to the Conservatives last year.  The UUP remains a reasonable force in local government, however.  115 of NI's 582 councillors belong to the UUP compared to 126 Sinn Fein councillors and 182 DUP councillors.

From the UUP's perspective an alliance with the resurgent Conservatives may offer the best hope of electoral recovery.  A recent YouGov poll of NI voters, commissioned by Owen Paterson and NI Conservatives, found that "45% would be Very Likely or Likely to vote Conservative at the next general election if given the opportunity." 

Editorial comment: "ConservativeHome warmly welcomes this initiative.  Although the Conservative Party has been contesting NI elections since 1992 this potential merger represents a serious opportunity for the Tories to emerge as the only party with seats in every part of the UK.  Northern Ireland residents should be able to vote for non-sectarian parties and for an alternative to the big state politics of both the DUP and Sinn Fein."

Launch of the Skills Green Paper

In what David Willetts called "the most important announcement Conservatives have made on skills in a decade", David Cameron launched Building Skills, Transforming Lives: A training and apprenticeships revolution at the Ideas Space venue today.

John Hayes, Shadow Minister for Vocational Education, told the meeting that:

"by boosting funding to apprenticeships, paying employers directly, and establishing an apprenticeship bonus, we will unlock individual talent and spread opportunity".

Hayes emphasised to ConservativeHome that reversing the negative trends on skills education was vital for social mobility. In addition to the proposals to boost the number of real apprenticeship places that we noted yesterday, the policy paper - the seventh in the 'Opportunity Agenda' series - calls for...

More community learning to improve skills and employability:

• A £100m NEETs fund (Not in Employment, Education or Training) specifically aimed at disengaged young people and a £100m Community Learning fund specifically aimed at adults looking to update or gain new skills - courses for would be available at local further education colleges.
• £775m of support for apprentices of all ages, to be delivered through new Lifelong Learning Accounts. This extra support will be delivered by refocusing the current ‘Train to Gain’ scheme.
• £5m to make it easier for small employers to come together and form Group Training Associations – a way of pooling their resources and talent to create and run their own apprenticeship schemes.
• A £60 million Business Skills Development Fund to promote non-apprenticeship skills.

Hague's eight point strategy for "by far the biggest challenge we face today"

William Hague spoke to members of the respected International Institute of Strategic Studies this afternoon on the subject of "preventing a new age of nuclear insecurity":

"The certainties of the Cold War, when nuclear weapons were concentrated in the hands of a few and mutually-assured destruction prevailed, have been replaced by a far more unpredictable array of threats. We are facing a new era of nuclear insecurity which left unchecked, could lead to the unravelling of the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty, which has been a fundamental pillar of our global security for the last four decades. We therefore must act now while time is still on our side and while there is a remaining chance of turning this tide."

He actually gave a speech there on the same subject exactly two years ago. This time he had eight specific recommendations to deal with nuclear proliferation and the tensions in the Middle East caused by Iran's nuclear programme:

1. A constructive conference should be held before the next Non-proliferation treaty conference, between the five recognised nuclear weapons powers - the US, UK, China, Russia and France.
2. A new drive is needed to revive the NPT and restore the broken consensus at its heart.
3. A new Security Council resolution to close loopholes in the NPT, including the difficulty in getting a proliferating country before the UN Security Council (taking about two years) and preventing countries from withdrawing from the NPT as nuclear weapons powers.
4. A mechanism to bring the dangerous nuclear fuel cycle under international control.
5. Steps to strengthen the International Atomic Energy Agency and the international system of safeguards and inspections - IAEA monitors have had a greatly increased workload but haven't had more resources.
6. Steps to clamp down on the trafficking in nuclear technology and materials
7. Steps to isolate proliferators from the international financial system
8. A stronger international strategy to deal with Iran.

Ipsos MORI: Tories at 47%

The Conservatives are on 47%, Labour 27% and the LibDems on just 15%.  More here.

Applications to join the team ConservativeHome have now closed

164 expressions of interest have been received for the vacancy/ vacancies.  We will be in contact with all applicants within seven days.  Thanks to everyone who took the trouble to send in their CVs and tell us about themselves - and, particularly, for the huge volume of ideas that were offered within the applications.

Information fundamentalism?

It's reported today that more than half a million requests for personal communications data such as records of private telephone calls and e-mails, were lodged by councils and law enforcement agencies last year.

Most people would agree that some of these requests were over-zealous, but where do you draw the line of acceptability? David Walker, Editor of the Guardian's Public magazine, has written a piece today exploring some of the benefits of information sharing. He notes a tension between different attitudes amongst Conservatives:

"Westminster council has uniformed "city guardians" patrolling alongside the police, with ubiquitous CCTV and Wi-Fi cameras as back up, and its 24-hour noise team guarantees a response to complaints within 45 minutes. The borough also operates dispersal zones to tackle aggressive begging and youth disorder. Sir Simon Milton, the former Tory leader of the borough, adds: "We have some of the toughest licensing policies in the country, and an effective enforcement regime that targets problem premises." So far, he says, so traditionally Conservative.

But what to some Tories is pragmatic municipal action is seen by others as state intrusion and a chance to bash the Labour government. Milton himself, as chair of the Local Government Association, remonstrated with councils that use their surveillance powers to snoop on litter louts. Fly tippers, rogue traders and fraudsters were a different matter - set the cameras on them, he said.

That's proportionality, Milton argued, but where to draw the line is infinitely contestable."

Walker goes on to criticise "information fundamentalists" who are too purist about privacy.

Regarding CCTV it's worth noting that according to his biography David Cameron backed a plan to hasten the spread of the cameras when he was Michael Howard's Home Office SpAd. Danny Finkelstein has today paid handsome tribute to the long-term effects of Howard's successful reforms to crime-fighting, reforms which Cameron probably doesn't get enough credit for.

Cameron 'prayed' that Brown wouldn't hold autumn 2007 election

David Cameron on Monday night reflected on this time last year:

"William Hague warned me that if he was smart, Gordon would go for a snap election in early October, just after the conferences - and that he would win.  So I spent the whole summer just hoping and praying that he wouldn't go for it."

Quoted by Rosa Prince.

Rifkind and Willetts head the growing list of pro-Obama Tories

The image comes from Adbusters, and a Cameronesque styling of Obama's 'Hope' poster.

A Telegraph survey of Tory MPs (of which 91 expressed a preference) has found that 63 backed John McCain and 28 Barack Obama (click here and take a look at the facelifted Telegraph.co.uk site).  ConservativeHome's own surveys of adopted candidates has found 25% supporting Obama and 61% for McCain.

This is what three prominent 'Obamacons" said:

Sir Malcolm Rifkind: "The symbolism of Obama is huge. The election of a black president would be such an enormous step forward for America's national history, and politics, its culture."

David Willetts: "The Shadow Universities Secretary was full of praise for Mr McCain's experience and independence, but said an Obama victory would restore "the world's faith in America" and would represent the more "vivid change"... When the show's presenter later interpreted this as support for Mr Obama, Mr Willetts did not contradict him.  "Obama is an incredibly exciting guy", Mr Willetts had told listeners, a view that is not uncommon among Tory MPs."

Douglas Carswell: ""Obama is the anti-politician in a time when people are rightly suspicious of political elites."  "There is a feeling in the younger centre-Right that we need radical change," Mr Carswell told the Telegraph. "The centre-Right should be small government and Bush is part of that big government consensus. McCain is a continuation of that.""

ConservativeHome.com remains proudly Republican and Tim Montgomerie recently tackled Dan Hannan and Douglas Carswell's support for the Democrat candidate.  David Cameron and George Osborne will meet Barack Obama later this week when the Illinois Senator visits London.

Cameron to outline ambitious apprenticeships policy

David Cameron will announce a Skills Green Paper tomorrow morning that pledges to spend £750m on creating 100,000 apprenticeships.

The proposals, formulated by MPs David Willetts and John Hayes, will be aimed at over 18s and will include offering £2,000 bonuses to employers who train up apprentices and will also ensure that there is a full-time careers adviser in every school and college.

The plans will be funded by diverting money from the red tape that the Government's current cumbersome approaches to promoting apprenticeships currently impose on small and medium-sized businesses. Willetts said:

"We're saying to employers we'll lower the hassle and give you a bigger incentive... If we want stable families there has to be a man holding down a good job on a decent wage. If you can hold down a job you can maintain a family."

The Government launched a draft Apprenticeship Reform Bill of its own last week which pledged to give every school leaver the legal right to an apprenticeship. We'll update this post tomorrow with details from the speech.

Noon update July 23rd: David Cameron has just spoken about the proposals to a packed room at Policy Exchange. David Willetts gave a neat slideshow presentation and John Hayes, who is responsible for vocational education, also spoke. Click here to download the report.

Tories 15% ahead in ICM poll

A new ICM survey for The Guardian has the Conservatives on 43% (-2%), Labour on 28% (+3%) and the tax-cutting LibDems on 19% (-1%).  More interestingly 60% of voters told ICM that they were planning to cut their own spending.  More here.