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Electoral Calculus makes that a 178 majority!!

In Populus exeisteince of 6.5 years this is a record breaking poll:

The Conservative share is the highest share that any party have held.

The Conservative lead is the biggest lead that any party has achieved.

The Labour share is the lowest share that either Labour or the Conservatives have received.

Michael Crick obviously not working hard enough. Must do better. LOL :)

It's overwhelmingly positive for Conservatives, with only three fifths of Labour voters in 2005 saying they will back Labour again. One fifth of Labour voters will vote Conservative.

One negative aspect is an increase in 17 points of the perception that the Tories have a 'sleaze' problem, but that's to be expected after the MEP headlines (and the BBC's Crick smear on Mrs Spelman). It will die down when Cameron deselects the offending MEPs.

Jonathan, yes. Three Line Whip has an annoying little story about Den Dover, which I hope Cameron will deal with quickly and professionally. But there is encouragment to take from the fact that, despite the sleaze issue, people are still saying they'll vote Conservative. We shouldn't take that for granted, of course, but should use it to drive out the sleaze.

Did any of you see the C4 Dispatches programme? I didn't, can you give the highlights?

Dave, it was a typical Rawnsley hatchet job. A run down from GB's highs to begin with, the the downward slope starting with bottling out of that election.
I enjoyed every minute of it. You really should have popped a tape in before you went out!!

Dave B - absolutely nothing new divulged.

Basically: Brown is a micro-managing control freak. He sends emails at 5am and was so tired he went to bed at 10pm on New Year's Eve.

Big turnaround in just 12 months etc. He can't do anything right, falls between two stalls, can't promote a clear message.

Frank Field: Brown just doesn't look at ease.
Straw: He takes longer to make decisions than Blair, but that's not necssarily a bad thing.
Cable: He is a tragic figure.
Gove: He's a plonker.

Pretty much sums it up. Most interesting thing was how much Hain spoke against him.

As for the poll: But the Sunday Times says we're in turmoil?? Apparently we're heading for imminent disaster; we're sleazy, our revival is so last week doncha know....

I'm worried by this. I just don't see how Brown can last for 2 years. That C4 dispatches was devestating for him. Nick Brown even turned on him, It was like watching an obituary.

Thanks, sounds like my kind of programme :-)

Farewell Jack Straw, Jacqui Smith, Alistair Darling, John Denham, James Purnell, Beverley Hughes, Tessa Jowell, Tony Wright, Jon Cruddas, Bill Rammell, Tony McNulty, Geoffrey Robinson, Betty Williams, Anne Begg, Mark Tami, Judy Mallaber, Michael Weir, Alan Reid, Sandra Osborne, John Hutton, Angela Smith, John Mann, Mike Wood, Martin Linton, Patrick Hall, Michael Moore, Gisela Stuart, Roger Godsiff, Richard Burden, Stephen McCabe, Joan Humble, Gordon Marsden, David Crausby, Ruth Kelly, Marsha Singh, Roger Williams, Barry Gardiner, Ann Keen, Madeleine Moon, Ian Cawsey, Desmond Turner, David Lepper, Kerry McCarthy, Doug Naysmith, Nick Palmer, Janet Dean, David Chaytor, Ivan Lewis, Christine McCafferty, Julia Goldsworthy, Julie Morgan, Alun Michael, Kevin Brennan, Eric Martlew, Nick Ainger, Tom Brake, Mark Williams, Jonathan Shaw, Patsy Calton, Martin Horwood, Christine Russell, Lindsay Hoyle, Shona McIsaac, Martyn Jones, Kali Mountford, Jamie Reed, Phil Hope, Dan Rogerson, Colin Breed, Jim Cunningham, Laura Moffatt, Howard Stoate, David Hanson, Bob Laxton, Natascha Engel, Mark Todd, Shahid Malik, Jim Knight, Gwyn Prosser, Ian Austin, Ian Pearson, Russell Brown, Roberta Blackman-Woods, Andrew Slaughter, Stephen Pound, Christopher Huhne, Mark Lazarowicz, Nigel Griffiths, Andrew Miller, Colin Burgon, Clive Efford, Liz Blackman, Ben Bradshaw, Alan Keen, Vernon Coaker, Parmjit Dhanda, Martin Caton, Austin Mitchell, Tony Wright, Sylvia Heal, Linda Riordan, Gareth Thomas, Michael Foster, Andrew Dismore, Paul Keetch, Tom Levitt, Frank Dobson, Celia Barlow, Greg Pope, Mike Gapes, Chris Mole, Emily Thornberry, Ann Cryer, Roger Berry, Rosie Cooper, Fabian Hamilton, Greg Mulholland, Peter Soulsby, David Taylor, Bridget Prentice, Jim Dowd, Harry Cohen, Gillian Merron, Andy Reed, Kelvin Hopkins, Margaret Moran, Ashok Kumar, Phyllis Starkey, Geraldine Smith, Paul Farrelly, Jessica Morden, Paul Flynn, Sally Keeble, Ian Gibson, Charles Clarke, John Heppell, Alan Simpson, Bill Olner, Gordon Banks, Andrew Smith, Gordon Prentice, Peter Wishart, Alison Seabeck, Linda Gilroy, Jim Fitzpatrick, Sarah McCarthy-Fry, Mike Hancock, Paul Truswell, Martin Salter, Jim Murphy, David Borrow, Susan Kramer, Sandra Gidley, Janet Anderson, Claire Curtis-Thomas, Paddy Tipping, Fiona Mactaggart, Lorely Burt, Dan Norris, David Heath, Alan Whitehead, John Pugh, David Kidney, Barbara Follett, Anne McGuire, Dari Taylor, Robert Flello, Lynda Waltho, David Drew, Bill Etherington, Paul Burstow, Michael Wills, Anna Snelgrove, Brian Jenkins, Jeremy Browne, David Wright, Andrew Mackinlay, Sadiq Khan, Adrian Sanders, Matthew Taylor, Alan Campbell, Chris Ruane, John Smith, Mary Creagh, Angela Eagle, David Winnick, Bruce George, Helen Southworth, James Plaskitt, Mike O'Brien, Claire Ward, Bob Blizzard, Mike Hall, Karen Buck, Tim Farron, Ben Chapman, Robert Marris, Michael Foster, Barbara Keeley, Dr Richard Taylor and Albert Owen

This bodes well for Henley.

Andrew - I wouldn't worry about this. I think Labour are now in a lose-lose situation. If they keep Brown, it is likely they will lose the next GE (probably quite badly by the state of the polls at the moment). However, if they dump Brown later this year and another PM takes over unelected during the same Parliament Labour would completely lose credibility and would look wholly undemocratic. It would raise serious constitutional issues.

Therefore, I think that even if a new leader decided to call a GE within a few months of taking the new post, this would merely mitigate the magnitude of an almost inevitable defeat for Labour now. Besides, who would want to take over the leadership for Labour right now? The top contenders - e.g. Miliband, Purnell, Straw etc, are unlikely to want to bid for the leader at this stage in the political cycle, risking defeat within months of taking the post.

I would suggest, therefore, that the Tories are in a near win-win situation (save for a disaster - and hopefully no more expense scandals, though it would seem the weekend's stories have had no detrimental impact on the Tory lead).

Nice post Mark...computer generated I think as you made it very quickly and it includes Patsy Carlton, who, as we know, is both sadly and unfortunately no longer with us.

On a lighter, far more satisfying note, your list does not include, but should include one Quentin Davis. What poor judgemnent he had!

Mr Williams. You seriously need to get out more.

On a lighter, far more satisfying note, your list does not include, but should include one Quentin Davis.
I don't suppose he ever intended standing for Labour in Grantham and Stamford, most likely he will be Lord Quentin Davies of Grantham and Stamford before too long, or will leave the commons, or like Shaun Woodward find a safe Labour seat.

Lord Quentin Davies of Grantham and Stamford before too long, or will leave the commons
and will leave the commons that should say obviously.

After seeing Mark Williams post (above), it looks like the only contenders for leader after the next election will be either the incompetant Byers and Milburn or the boy Milliband.

Nice list. Very satisfying. Lol.

Mark Williams - that's quite some list but let's not get over-excited! There are always local factors which come into play such as MPs' "personal vote" and local issues. In addition, we have got to weather the storm of the expenses row. The next few polls might take us into a patch of rough weather though I am sure we will come out the other side. I think David Cameron is taking absolutely the right approach over the MEPs and if all goes well, it will increase his credibility whilst leaving Labour and the Lib Dems with quite a few questions to answer.

Mark Williams list underplays the regional impact of the Lib Dem vote. We will take seats off them in the South and Midlands [Carshalton, Somerton and Solihull etc], Clegg will win seats from Labour in the North West and North East.

Its why people like Graham Stringer MP are getting so antsy about Brown.

I don't see Stephen hesford in Wirral West

If Brown takes Labour much lower, the Lib Dems have a real chance of beating them into second place.

This poll was taken before the Spelman factor , other sleaze problems will show in the next poll, so don't all get too excited. Remember this time last year lots of you were calling for Camerons head ! and Labour were 10 points ahead.

Dave hasn't done that much to change things in the last 12 months , it's Brown who's done all the damage himself. Two years is a very long time in politics , anything can happen.

Simon - I'm guessing the list came from Electoral Calculus. If so, Hesford is already "gone" as WW is a notional Tory seat (as are Staff Moorlands, Rochester & Strood et al.)

Have Dave heard of the word 'hubris'? And does he remember Neil Kinnock in 1992?

Such a shame David Davis didn't win the leadership, just think how far ahead we'd be in the polls if he had.

mark williams' list look like a copy & paste from electoral calculus due to the typos in the names on the list

"such a shame David Davies didn't win " Hayeks Grandad

Absolutley right , it's is a missed opportunity , Cameron is just another Blair, David Davies has class , Cameron is all mouth and no substance.

gezmond007, I take it that you hang around conservativeshome because there's a lot going on and lots of people to talk to rather than sitting on the Labour equivalent to watch the tumbleweed roll past.


Mike cant you handle the truth !

Gezmond

Have your fellow Labour trolls seen the front page of today's Times ?

L.O.L

I don,t have any fellow Trolls but I have seen the Times myself. Stop getting too excited , two years is a long time in politic's .


Congratulations on your impressive
- but are you actually winning or is it that Labour is losing it, to your benefit? Is it a choice for the better or an acknowledgement of the least worst alternative?

What if, coincidentally just before the General Election, Labour miraculously managed to find enough money for a significant electoral bribe and/or somehow realised that an EU referendum might be a good idea after all? Could be some fickle voters out there with short memories - or a belief, in respect of a referendum, that country comes before party.

"Congratulations on your impressive"

Oops, I missed out "lead" ...but do feel free to insert such other noun as you wish.

@Ken Stevens

It is much harder to bribe the electorate now than it was in 1997. Ten years of wasteful spending means that there is no money left to bribe the voters, and even the old trick of bribing the voters with their own money won't work because they are mostly broke.

"It is much harder..."
but not impossible for a desperate administration?

- And a referendum would be comparatively cheap.
- And what if Brown were toppled sooner rather than later? (though admittedly it is difficult at present to visualise a contender in the Labour ranks to match Mr Cameron's personality)

I still think you're at risk of a coup de main by Labour so long as you're just fiddling around on the same patch of electoral territory with variations on policy themes rather than anything strikingly and memorably different.

Ken, possible but don't forget Labour tried wheeling out a bribe just before the C&N byelection

Look how well it worked for them then

"This poll was taken before the Spelman factor"

Oh no it wasn't.

It's quite clear that Gezmond007 can't quite bring himself to contribute anything positive, not even when the Conservatives have a lead of this magnitude.
What makes people think the lead would be higher had David Davis won the leadership, given that he is closer politically to Hague, IDS and Howard? David Cameron has been able to expand our support above 31-33% because he can appeal beyond our core supporters, which no Tory leader from 1997-2005 was able to do.

May I suggest that the polls are not just demonstrating that people have no faith in Brown, they are demonstrating also that people have no faith in Labour. Labour used to stand for socialism, when people realised that socialism was useless Labour invented NewLabour. They were able to sell it because Blair was allowed to keep moving the goal posts. Now Labour is nothing more than a vehicle to keep Labour politicians in jobs, and their hands in the till. (If you think they stand for the poor ask someone who used to be on the 10% tax band or someone on a private pension. To name but two.) Labour is bankrupt in every conceivable way - Milliband as PM? Come on for gods sake.

Think on, we win the next election. We will have to sort out a right mess. Difficult decisions will need to be made resulting in us being called nasty again. The country gets sorted (yet again) things get easy, so, along come Labour with sob stories about the poor again and loads of promises and they get in again. They make a mess again. We then have to sort it out again. . . . . .

We can't go on like this. There is an oportunity now to reduce Labour to a rump party never likely to gain office again. We must grab this oportunity. Apart from anything else Labour have all the fun.

Mark Williams

Mike Weir, Alan Reid and Peter Wishart are Scots MPS and none of them Labour. Lib Dem Alan Reid will almost certainly lose his seat as the LibDems lost the Holyrood equivalent however latest polling in Scotland would mean that Weir and Wishart would hugely increase their majorities and it is possible if this situation persists that the SNP will end up with more seats than Labour in Scotland at the next election. Labour is in meltdown here in Scotland but not so far to a Tory advance.
Labour's Scottish leader wendy Alexander is now evwen lower in the polls than Gordon Brown coming 47th out of 47 in a poll in Scotland of political leaders.

@David McEwan-Hill
"Mike Weir, Alan Reid and Peter Wishart are Scots MPS and none of them Labour."

Your point being? They were elected at a time when the Conservative share of the national vote was considerably lower than current levels. If Conservative polling stays high enough, eventually the Conservative will win back some of the Scottish seats they held in the 1980's, even in Scotland, and that means that not only will Labour lose seats but also the LD's and the SNP.

Patsy Calton died three years ago.

Sorry to bring a small note of sobriety to this delightful poll.

What does it truly matter? We are several months (and a summer off politics) from the Party Conference (or Brown/Clegg lynching) season and aside from Henley there is little to make these polls relevant to politics in general.

Clearly Labour MPs are not yet desperate or courageous enough to engage in regicide.

If this is a peak, then its not coming at the right time.

I want to see this poll repeated in early September, just before the Lib Dem and Labour conferences.

Then sit back and watch the fun.

My point is that SNP poll ratings in Scotland are presently about double what they were when Wishart and Weir were elected and if you apply consistency in your calculations these SNP MPs will be elected with hugely increased majorities and certainly wont lose their seats as you carelessly suggest. A Labour party vote does not figure significantly in either of their seats (and what there is of it will probably largely vote SNP).
You are probably oblivious to the entirely different political landscape in Scotland which has the Tory vote slightly improved but still below 20% which could give them perhaps 3 seats at the next election.
The SNP at present ratings could take up to 26 out of Scotland's 59 seats

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