Massive victory for Conservatives in Henley, Labour come fifth

On Gordon Brown's first anniversary as PM Labour come fifth in Henley - behind the British National Party and the Greens.  Labour also lost its deposit.

The Conservatives have a new MP - John Howell, pictured above, with Chris Grayling MP just in the background.

The Conservatives won a majority of 10,116 over the LibDems.

The Conservative share of the vote (57%) actually went up.

The LibDems (28%) tried to run a negative campaign but it failed.  Their by-election machine will need an overhaul after this.

Many congratulations to Dr Howell and the whole Tory campaign team.

> ConservativeHome's reports on the Henley campaign.

2.30am: Full results (from The Times)

1. John Howell (C) 19,796 (57%, +3.5%)
2. Stephen Kearney (LD) 9,680 (28%, +1.8%)
3. Mark Stevenson (Green) 1,321 (3.8%, +0.5%)
4. Timothy Rait (BNP) 1,243 (3.6%)
5. Richard McKenzie (Lab) 1,066 (3.1%, -11.7%)
6. Chris Adams (UKIP) 843 (2.4%, -0.1%)
7. Bananaman Owen (Loony) 242 (0.70%)
8. Derek Allpass (Eng Dem) 157 (0.45%)

C maj 10,116 (29.1%), 0.81% swing LD to C

Turnout 34,761 (50.3%, -17.6%)

3am: Lord Rennard - architect of the negative and unsuccessful LibDem campaign - cuts a lonely figure in the deserted hall where the result was declared:

Comments

[Stefan]

Fantastic result! Well done to the campaign. And I am grinning like an idiot at the Labour result.

[Cllr Iain Frost]

Congratulations John, and well done to everyone who helped re-elect a Conservative to represent Henley-on-Thames in Parliament. 8^)

[Watervole]

Bloody marvellous! Awesome. It needs to be said, I am also grinning like an idiot at the Labour non-result. Fifth place - not even an also ran. I wonder if Gordon managed to hear the electorate now? The knives will be sharpening in Whitehall and it won't be for birthday cake!

[Alan Collins]

This is a fantastic result for the Conservative Party, and a huge blow for Brown and his government.

For information, I have the full results on my website.

Well done to everyone who fought hard in our positive campaign to push our share of the vote up - and especially well done to John Howell on becoming the latest Conservative MP to be elected to the House of Commons.

[Osa]

Conservatives 57%
Labour 3%

[Rich Coe]

Unbelievably good result for us.

The best news is that the gutter politics of the Libdems has been resoundingly beaten

[Liam in Preston]

A very good result indeed! The Labour trolls are boring me to death on other forums sounding off about how this doesn't really matter, but clearly the electorate have spoken. It's a great anniversary present, well done Henley, and congrats to the Conservatives.

[Dean]

Was it the British Jobs for British Workers wot done it? And for which neo-fascist party?!?!?

[Watervole]

Curious how Al Beeb seem not to have noticed all this going on - no sign of their usual TV production number for elections. I wonder why....

[DEan]

So 85% of Labour's voters in 2005 didn't vote for them yesterday.

[Joe James Broughton]

Congratulations to John Howell - he seems like a really good and well informed candidate - now MP.

The Tory share of the vote is up 3.4 points - almost to it's 1992 level, with a swing against the Lib Dems of 0.7%.

Very satisifactory, good by-election result, as the share is almost back to that of the 1992 General Election in Henley.

The LDs won't be celebrating after this.
Personally, I think their smears and scares are from another age - which ok - may have resonated a few years ago - but are of very little interest to people now. They want a new government with real solutions, and a proper local MP - not someone who just makes a lot of noise.

If we can keep this up, the LDs can be well and truly trashed.

Cheers!

[Philip]

Labour were even behind the repugnant BNP and Greens!

We may still have some work to do to deal with the Lib Dems - getting 28% is far too high. There are some key seats we need to get from them - Oxford West & Abingdon, and Sutton & Cheam being two examples.

[Watervole]

Philip - don't forget Twickenham!

[Jon White]

Only worrying thing is that results like this could provoke Labour to ditch Brown. That would be bad for us, he's our greatest electoral assett.

[John M Ward]

A really, really good result -- especially Labour coming fifth and losing their deposit.

Although there have been rumours of dumping Brown after the Labour Conference in the autumn, I don't think they will.

No-one else is thought will make any kind of improvement to their fortunes, and they'd probably feel compelled to call a General Election, which they'd lose.

After the Henley result they will be even more scared of that prospect, especially as it's only while they remain in Government that they are of any use to the Unions and Labour desperately needs them to bail the party out of its current financial position.

No, Brown will almost certainly have to stay -- which is great news for the Conservatives, of course.

[Anna]

Great result!

A few thoughts:

Nick Clegg comes across as a nice man, even if rather deluded. It surprises me he wouldn't have clamped down on LibDem dirty campaigning. What am I missing?

Amongst the euphoria that Labour came fifth behind the Greens and BNP, isn't it rather worrying that the BNP should be able to achieve that?

Philip: I grew up in Sutton, too long ago to mention, when it was solidly Conservative and not swallowed up by Greater London. Since it was one of the neglected suburbs that turned out in force for Boris, I believe there is hope it may return to the fold!

[LS]

I think some of your times are 12 hours out :)

[Serf]

The LibDems are now officially the Not Labour party, as opposed to the Not Conservative party that they used to be. This will have big consequences for the general election.

If they are smart, they will target Labour not Tory seats.

[Alan Douglas]

10 years of Blair glitz, one of Brown substance.

I wonder what Gordon's definition od "listening" is ?

Alan Douglas

[Neil Reddin]

Congratulations to John Howell and the team. It good to know that the work we all put in (myself included) paid off.

On the BNP vote - I wonder if Harriet Harman's announcement yesterday about the (in)equalities bill - which will allow positive discrimination - might have forced a few floaters to the BNP?

[Graeme Archer]

It's fantastic isn't it. I just heard the smarmfest that is Ben Bradshaw trying to talk it away on Today. Even paid up Labour brown-tongue Naughtie was incredulous. When was the last time a governing party lost its deposit in an election?

serf I agree with your analysis. If the lib dems were rational they would push their (limited?) resource at seats where they're second to Labour. But I don't think they will be able to do that, because so many of the seats they're defending are "natural" Tory seats. Even if their campaign hq wants to, their leading MPs won't allow it. Can you hear that discordant, ugly yelling? It's Susan Kramer, demanding resource for SW London.

[Neil Reddin]

Have a look at LibDem voice this morning. Thay had/have an open thread on Henley too - scrolling down, as the result became clear, you can see them being mugged by reality ... well, some of them, anyway. Some actually think this is quite a good result for them ("Not quite as good as Bromley, but jolly promising nonetheless")!

[Serf]

Graeme

I agree wth your analysis. As an Anti Labour party they could win a number of seats in 2010. As Anti Tory, they will win none. However to hold onto theier seats, they face an uphill battle against a resurgent Conservative Party.

I expect the change in direction to come after the election, when they are reduced to a rump.

[Old Hack]

What a disappointing result for UKIP, being beaten by both Labour and the BNP in what should be promising territory.

The true value of this win is the signal it sends to Lib Dems in Parliament and challenging Conservatives in Tory constituencies; get ready for a kicking and polish up your CVs.

Finally, YES, this is the by election that showed that oaf Rennard for the cheap and shoddy campaigner that he is. Lib Dem tactics were all used and all failed.

[London Tory]

We have got the better of Clegg already- an over rated non entity with none of Dave's star quality.

Rennard- we gave your boys one hell of a beating.

[Paul]

Did you know Labours result was so bad that Richard McKenzie's result would not of even won him the Council seat he stood in in May!

http://www.reading.gov.uk/councilanddemocracy/electoral/localelections2008/General.asp?id=SX9452-A7831F71

[Sally Roberts]

Fantastic result! I had no doubt the Conservatives would win but for Labour to do so poorly is an absolute disaster for them. I think even if they got rid of Gordon now they would not recover.

[Sally Roberts]

Quite sorry to see that Harry The Bear only got 73 votes - he was very cuddly! I expect they were Labour votes that went to him as he is certainly more effective and useful than Gordon!

[Sue Doughty]

Yes, excellent result, well done guys!
I was telling at a polling station in a Labour voting patch - next to a presumed heavily unionised industrial complex. It was quiet as the grave in there.
Note to self - do not leave my MP3 player at home on charge when going telling in Labour areas in future.
A serene day indeed.

[John Moss]

Labour's lost 12% went; 3.5% to Conservative, 1.8% to Lib-Dems, 3.5% to BNP, the rest to everybody else.

The BNP and others votes can be written off as protest votes. The other swings suggest that twice as many voters switched from Labour straight to the Conservatives as switched to the Lib-Dems.

As the Lib-Dems by-election message is always, "vote for us, because party A can't beat party B", and is still effective, it is reasonable to assume that the Lib-Dems "core" vote made absolutely no progress at all here, with all their "gain" coming from Labour voters vainly hoping for a LD upset.

This is a terrible result for Nick, "not more than 30," Clegg.

[Paul D]

This could be disastrous for the LDs - by-elections are their raison d'etre, if they're making no progress in them, and if their veneer as a "nice" party is being eroded (dirty tricks allegations here and in B&C a couple of years back) then suddenly things could start to look a bit ropey for them
If I were a LD MP in a Conservative marginal I'd be sleeping a little less soundly at the moment. "Local factors" may not be enough in the current climate

[chrisblore]

This is fantastic news and shows that even the BBC's and the liberal leftist media's digging for "Tory sleaze" cannot dent the electoral progress we are making. Brown and the Labour Party are in freefall and finally the Lib Dems who could previously count on an "anyone but the Tories" vote are stuck in neutral and soon to be in reverse.

I however agree with David Cameron's calls (reported by the Daily Mail today) to adopt a more statesmanlike approach. Brown does not need to be attacked with such venom any more as people can see for themselves that he is a scheming nobody, lacking what was arguably his greatest asset in his feud with Tony Blair. People now need to know what a Conservative government is going to be like and more of the same from DC in tackling the bigger issues like Zimbabwe as well as domestic policies at PMQs will show that we are serious and have a broader agenda for when we get into government, although they may not grab all the headlines in the shorter term.

[Pete]

Chris Rennard:

“We increased our vote…”

LibDem Henley vote 2005 General Election - 12,101

LibDem Henley vote 2008 By Election - 9,680

An increase of minus 2421!

[Sally Roberts]

Chris Blore - I agree that attacks on Gordon should certainly decrease from now on. If we continue at the same strength we will risk "blowing it" and Labour is perfectly capable of hanging itself from this point onwards!

[Andrew Gilbert]

The Lib Dems should take note that putting up a candidate who looks like Lovejoy simply isn't enough these days.

[Adam McNestrie]

Political parties go crazy for by-elections. They throw time and money and big name politicians at the poor unfortunate electors, already abandoned (in one way or another) by their MP. Why? Because a by-election is an over-sized poll, the sort of poll that is so big that no can help but listen to. But it is a poll with one other crucial difference: the politicians can cheat. The politicians know who the sample is and there is nothing – no laws, no conventions, no scruples – stopping them from using all available means to change their minds. So: armies of button-men, volunteer fodder and big beasts descend on the electors of the constituency and bully, wheedle, bore and pulverize them into submission. The prize if you do it well? A boost in this quasi-opinion poll even if you’re not performing better, even if you haven’t gotten more popular. The by-election is a chance to win just by being dirtier, meaner and more resourceful than your opponents. The Lib Dems have been doing it for years…

Read more at my blog, Just who the hell are we? on wordpress.com, at:
http://adammcnestrie.wordpress.com/

[RichardJ]

"Amongst the euphoria that Labour came fifth behind the Greens and BNP, isn't it rather worrying that the BNP should be able to achieve that?"

Their percentage of the vote was only 3.6% and they tend to do well on low turnouts. It was the massive collapse in the Labour vote that allowed the BNP to look like they'd done well.

[Editor]

Thank you LS; I've now corrected!

[John]

I am pleased that Conservatives won so spectacularly but I am still concerned that Cameron is another Blair and not a suitable leader of the country!

[Angryman]

A couple of posts above have mentioned the BNP. With impecable timing, Harriet Harmen has introduced a bill to make it legal to discriminate against white men at the very moment when the Black Police Assoc is suing for racial discrimination. Ofcourse the BNP benefits.

[councilhousetory]

Fantastic result, but I'm also concerned about the BNP result. As nu labour ditch their core votes, some of those are going to the BNP, which is trying to present itself as the party of the working class. People like harriet don't help, what has she got to do with a 'labour' party

[English Dumbocrat]

Look at that!! Another AMAZING result for the English Democrats. Stunning!! 0.45% and bottom of the poll. Not exactly an improvement on our 0.6% in Crewe but still a clear, overwhelming endorsement of our policy for an ENGLISH PARLIAMENT NOW!

By winning a landslide 0.45% and getting beaten by the Monster Raving Looney Party, the English people have clearly shown that they will never vote for David Donald "I've got a lot of Scottish blood in my veins" McCameron. The next government will instead be formed by the English Dems.

I await Ken Stevens and Wonkotsane's comments about how the demand for an English Parliament has clearly been proven with this spectacular result.

[Bill Melotti]

I was telling yesterday in what was probably safe tory territory for the morning, and it was quiet also. I wondered if our supporters might not turn out, but I guess they did so later...

I am really glad to see John who I know well in Parliament, he will be a real asset. We have a good positive message now and that will not be dented by negative campaigning from Labour or Lib Dems.

That's a real relief to those of us that have to endure that from them in Abingdon and Wantage.

There is little chance this result can be spun as some meaningless 'inevitable result' or loss of tory momentum.

[Cleethorpes Rock]

I'm sure that Harperson's Inequality Bill motivated some National Socialist (BNP) supporters to turn out, but I think the result also shows there is nothing to be gained out of pandering to UKIP voters.

Their share was pitiful and vindicates the strategy of campaigning on the issues people care about such as the cost of living, crime, healthcare, schools and the environment.

[Ken Stevens]

English Dumbocrat
"I await Ken Stevens comments"

So what; we trounced the blonde, the brunette and the bear.
And it was probably the leaflets that I personally delivered that got our votes at all.

Harumphhhh :-(

Must awa' the noo to write a little feature (non-political of course) for the village magazine about the count at Thame.

[Cllr Dawn Parry]

Jon White "Gordon Brown - our greatest electoral assett"
Nah.....don't even give that one a moment's worry. We have already had 1 unelected Prime Minister, this shoddy govt would do themselves no favours at all in imposing yet another of their cronies to attempt to lead us!
Our win in Henley is the best news ever for us and we will continue to win every by-election and ultimately, the General Election in 2010 - if not before! I really enjoyed campaigning there and yet again, met even more lovely people in support of us as well as having made new friends of fellow Party activists.

[Munish Chopra]

Congratulations John!

You deserve it!

[English Dumbocrat]

Ken Stevens: fair play to you for having a sense of humour about it. :-)

[Cleethorpes Rock]

Who won more votes- the blonde or the brunette?

Oh, and well done John Howell MP. by the way!

[Deborah Thomas, PPC Twickenham]

Brilliant result - I'm delighted at the huge majority over the LDs even with a reduced turnout.

Maybe they can learn the art of positive campaigning now?

[Conand]

50.5% turnout. Which means:

1.57% of the electorate went out and voted Labour.
That must be 'within the margin of error'. The error being that they thought Labour were a real political party.

[Cleethorpes Rock]

What are you saying, Conand? That Labour's vote, at 1.57% and within the margin of error actually means that Labour may actually have polled no votes at all in Henley!

[Londoner]

I note that the Today prog this morning kept saying that we "maintained" our share of the vote on a lower turnout, when in fact our share went up 3.5%. The swing in our favour from the Lib Dems was also not mentioned. So their story was thus made entirely a "disaster for Labour" one, rather than also a positive story for us. If there had been even a similarly small swing from us to the Lib Dems, methinks they would have mentioned it. Hey ho.

The important thing now is to keep emphasising that the whole New Labour project is dead in the water and not just personalise it to Brown. We have won the battle on Brown but need to guard against any 2010 "despite Brown" votes, let alone them getting rid of him (or him "retiring through ill health", "to attend to his disabled child", "concentrate on a miracle operation to restore the vision he was once thought to have" etc.)

[Ken Stevens]

English Dumbocrat

Thank you kindly Sir/Madam

Cleethorpes Rock

The blonde - 128 votes against the brunette's 91.

All due of course to the more sophisticated attire of the aforesaid blonde. When I described the style , my wife says it is called (or at least was last year) a tulip skirt/dress. That compared with the blouse & slacks of the brunette that, whilst no doubt fabulously expensive, did not quite fit the political mould. I mention these seemingly extraneous details so as to emphasise to potential candidates the importance of dressing the part in order to secure additional votes. ;-)

[Cleethorpes Rock]

As a blonde, I am delighted by this result.

[Alan Collins]

Cleethorpes Rock - The blonde got 128 and the brunette got 91.

[Carl Cross]

Brilliant result and well done to John and everyone involved.

I'm just ashamed Rennard went to my old school!

[London Tory]

The great unwritten political story of the last 3 months- with all the dung being chucked at Brown, is that Nick Clegg has made no impact whatsoever. The Guardian ICM poll this week stated that only 11% felt he had made an impression. He is gauche, vacuous, and as his transport policy announcement recently revealed- totally lightweight intellectually.

Lets all hope that Mark Oaten abandons Winchester and we can expose Cleggover even further.

[Michael Huntsman]

Watching various Labour worthies turn on the spit this morning has provided pleasurable viewing.

Can anyone identify the last occasion when Labour lost its deposit at a bye-election?

[christina Speight]

Nice profit there for the returning officer - £3,000 in lost deposits

[Ken Stevens]

One of those 'wish I'd said that' comments on The Scotsman website:

"1066 votes for Labour!
That's one in the eye for the Saxons!
Do we get a commemorative postage stamp?
Or a tapestry?"

:-)

[Ulster Tory]

Fantastic result.

[RichardJ]

"Can anyone identify the last occasion when Labour lost its deposit at a bye-election?"

Winchester 1997

[Ian McKellar]

Of Bye-elections, this must the first one with a five figure Conservative majority since the late 1970s.The Lib Dem challenge was crushed.

I suspect this must the first time in an English bye-election that either of the main parties have come lower than fourth (at least in recent times.)

As for Labour's performance, I put it on par with the Monster Raving loony Party beating the SDP at Liverpool Walton and the Hamilton Accies supporters' Candidate beating the Lib Dems at Hamilton South after George Robertson resigned

[Rev Smurf]

Lets be honest this was always going to be a Tory win...The real news is Labour polling less than the BNP. Even I am beginning to scratch my head and ponder, why is the Labour vote falling apart ? Why has British politics become so volatile. why worry you might ask, make hay whilst the sun shines. Why Indeed, because this volatility is just as likely to turn round and bite our ass's if we don't learn from their mistakes.

[johnC]

'Of Bye-elections, this must the first one with a five figure Conservative majority since the late 1970s'

In fact, the most recent was Beaconsfield in 1982 with a majority of 13,053.

The unknown Labour candidate ACL Blair came a poor third and lost his deposit. So there's hope for Basher McKenzie yet.

[Londoner]

Can anyone identify the previous time a bear came last in a by election? I believe it was in Inner Siberia East in 1916 when a bear stumbled in from the tundra by mistake. This is believed by some historians to have led to a revolution the following year, but I don't believe that can be true (the revolution) as Russia is as chaotic as ever.

As for the blonde beating the brunette - surely, after Hezza and Boris, this goes with the territory? I have it on good authority that there have only been 2 years since the division was formed in 1832 that the MP has not been a blonde, although few of them are known to have worn skirts (at least in pubic).

[Londoner]

Er, public, that is.

[David Lindsay]

Yes, Labour coming fifth is a story, although Labour losing its deposit there is not.

But there are rather bigger stories here: the low turnout (aren't people itching to come out and vote for Cameron?), the failure of the Lib Dems to make any headway, the hopeless failure of Cameron's Blue-Greenery, the rise of the Greens (also strikingly apparent in nearby Oxford and elsewhere) among the ever-leftish section of the bourgeoisie, the total collapse of UKIP, and the success of the BNP among people who might be white but are certainly not working-class.

Those are the real ones to watch.

[Justin Hinchcliffe]

Congratulations, John. I think the real story of the night is how the Lib Dems failed to make any tangible progess.

[Justin Hinchcliffe]

Now, I should have added, let's focus on winning back Oxford West and Abingdon and getting rid of that ghastly little man, "Dr Death".

[Justin Hinchcliffe]

Watch this and LOL!

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=sVCPrnNPw3s&feature=related

[Sally Roberts]

"Can anyone identify the previous time a bear came last in a by election? I believe it was in Inner Siberia East in 1916 when a bear stumbled in from the tundra by mistake. This is believed by some historians to have led to a revolution the following year, but I don't believe that can be true (the revolution) as Russia is as chaotic as ever."

It doesn't bear thinking about! Perhaps Paddington might stand in a future by election? After all, he did successfully claim political asylum and I believe is now a British Citizen.

[Sean Fear]

"Now, I should have added, let's focus on winning back Oxford West and Abingdon and getting rid of that ghastly little man, "Dr Death"

We don't always agree, but I entirely agree with you on that.

[Ben Stevenson]

As someone who is strongly pro-life, I would be delighted if the pro-euthanasia and abortion Evan Harris (Oxford West and Abingdon) lost his seat. There are some things which in my view make someone unfit to be an MP.

http://www.desiringgod.org/resourcelibrary/Articles/ByDate/1995/1524_OneIssue_Politics_OneIssue_Marriage_and_the_Humane_Society/

Incidentally, I went to the same school as Dr Harris.

[Justin Hinchcliffe]

Well guys, I am going to make contact with our PPC in OW&A - she, for I think it is a she?, can't be any worse than Harris on Life issues. If she agrees, I hope to put together a wide coalition to go there, maybe once a month, to help eject him. Watch this space. Anyone interested, please email me at [email protected]

[Justin Hinchcliffe]

BTW, Dr. Shipman was a supporter of the National Secular Society...

[Ben Stevenson]

OW&A candidate is Nicola Blackwood

http://www.nicolablackwood.com/

http://conservativehome.blogs.com/goldlist/oxford_west_abingdon/index.html

[James Dowden]

Graeme Archer wrote: "When was the last time a governing party lost its deposit in an election?"

Answer: 14th July 2005, the Cheadle By-Election.

The other by-elections Labour lost its deposit at since 1997 were 24th February 2000 (Romsey) and 20th November 1997 (Winchester).

The last by-election at which a Conservative government lost its deposit was 15th June 1995 (North Down). Outside Northern Ireland, the last Conservative government lost deposits were 16th February 1995 (Islwyn), 30th June 1994 (Monklands East), and 4th July 1991 (Liverpool Walton).

[Steven]

I don't understand the concern about the BNP. At least they WOULD deal with the immigration crisis which WILL make Britons foreigners in their own country unless it is stopped and they WOULD pull Britain out of the EU so that we can govern ourselves once again instead of the French and Germans governing us.

When are PC muppets going to understand that the BNP has been created by sixy odd years of constant Labour and Tory treason? Really, those who moan about the BNP should realise that they would get NO VOTES at all if it Britain hadn't suffered this treason.

[Barry]

Cleethorpes Rock, how exactly are the BNP 'national socialist'? At least they are nationalists who would put Britain and the British people first for a change which neither Labour or CONServative have done for about sixty odd years now!

When is the CONServative Party going to restore our country's national sovereignty, get tough on crime and immigration? Personally, I would rather vote for the BNP who have coherent policies on immigration than a CONServative Party that just talks the talk on the subject and which doesn't have the policies to deal with it not least because that party is committed to EU membership which will prevent any real reduction of immigration from Eastern Europe.

[Puma Clyde]

That is actually an amazing statistical info amongst the individuals who are searching for it. Its very fairly practical as nicely as uncommon data supplied in web-sites. Wonderful perform.