21% ahead with ComRes

Another poll! A ComRes poll for the Independent has the Conservatives 21% ahead, the highest rating and biggest lead for any party since ComRes began polling for the paper in 2006.

Conservatives: 46% (+2)
Labour: 25% (-5)
LibDems: 18% (+2)

Brown may be dragging his party's support down as more of those polled actually said that they regarded themselves as supporting Labour (27%) than Conservative (26%). 13% of those Labour "identifiers" intend to vote Tory, as do 14% of LibDem identifiers. Only 4% of LibDem identifiers say they will vote Labour, while 7% of Labour identifiers intend to back the LibDems.

Encouragingly, 74% of Tory supporters are absolutely certain to vote, compared to 58% of Labour supporters and 50% of LibDems. We're ahead of Labour amongst every age and social group and in every region except Scotland.

Comments

[Malcolm Dunn]

Another fine poll. I notice that all these polls showing the Conservative Party with massive leads are attracting fewer and fewer comments on this blog. It's as if we didn't really have to do anything other than watch our oppononents flounder in unpopularity. Who could have believed this a year ago?

[Will S]

It's like everyone has conspired to give Labour the worst poll ratings in history....

[jackson p]

We know these poll leads won't last forever - but let us just remember how far we have come as a party. Yes we are benefiting from labours decline but we have transformed ourselves as a party. Congrats to everyone on the ground who has made this happen. And of course to DC for leading it.

[Dave B]

Andrew Grice's writeup of this poll is now online.

[Tony Makara]

"Who could have believed this a year ago?"

Check the archives, myself and a few others stuck by David Cameron and predicted the Brown bounce wouldn't last and that the economy would be the thing that finished Brown. The only real danger now is a long wait for power might produce boredom and in-fighting and thats why David Cameron is spot-on when he calls for no complacency at all. The time up to the next election needs to be given over to building up credible policy, not only in reforms but also in putting forward some original thinking in key areas like job-creation and constitutional matters.

[MrB]

Tony, I don't wish to inflate your ego but I did what you suggested and found these comments in a diary post about a record poll lead for Brown just before the "non-election":

"Just think we might be a month away from getting rid of this awful, deceitful, failed Labour government... I don't think support for Labour in the country is anywhere near as strong as these polls suggest"

I commented on the same post: "I remain of the view that the poll lead would narrow significantly once we get equal media coverage. Think about it, have we had many high profile stories on the news channels lately, compared to the Government?"

Trying and failing not to be smug here ;o). The only reservation I have is that I don't really see how it could get much worse for Brown, without him being replaced by a better leader, yet if things get noticably better for him the narrative will then be "comeback-Brown" handing him a certain amount of momentum. Who knows though? All that the past year has shown is that anything can happen in British politics.

[Donal Blaney]

I thought David Davis' resignation was supposed to have harmed the Tories' poll lead...

Oh wait, the Westminster Village got THAT wrong too!

[Yogi]

I will give Tony credit for being very calm during the summer of 2007, when most of us were calling for the heads of Cameron and Gideon.
But we have work to do and some cleaning up and Cameron ought to resist the baying left wing media when one or two MPs, PPCs say anything that is twisted and presented as racist or nasty.
Then we must decide what to do with Portillo.
Thirdly, we need to develop the right policy framework as to how to handle the aftermath of NuLab's scorch the earth policy - we will be faced with a budget deficit of at least £75,000 million, a balance of paymnt deficit in the region of £100,000 million and an unemployment rate of 8% by 2010.

[Yet Another Anon]

I thought David Davis' resignation was supposed to have harmed
David Davis's campaign has already rapidly fallen into obscurity.

3 years into a term though government's are usually in trouble - 1948, 1954, 1958, 1962, 1965, 1969, 1973, 1977, 1982, 1986, 1990, 1995, 2000, 2004 - even where the government lost it did better than 3 years into the parliament.

[Modern Conservative]

Yogi,

I'm not sure I agree with you about how David Cameron should deal with the periodic rouge candidate or MP making controversial comments problem. Whenever I begin to think that Cameron may be acting a little harshly I think back to the huge damage done by the John Townend affair. The way Cameron has dealt with these problems has in general been very effective - the story hasn't crossed over into mass public consciousness and amongt politicos he has enhanced his proile as being tough and decisive.

It does sometimes seem unfair on the candidate but politics is a tough game we can't risk losing the hard won prize of detoxifiying the Conservative brand.

[councilhousetory]

I agree with Modern Conservative, DC has to put the interests of the party and country before individuals. If that's sometimes harsh, then that' life.

[Sunonmars]

Wendy Alexander to step down within hours and Glasgow East MP for Labour to stand down due to ill health, another by election, Brown must be cringing.

[Edward Huxley]

Two areas where David Cameron could make things even worse for Labour and better for the Tories:

Make a public statement backing Stuart Wheeler`s campaign with a firm promise to give us a retrospective referendum on the Treaty/Constitution. Mr. Wheeler has made generous donations to the party in the past. I wonder if Mr. Cameron sent him a cheque!

Say he will renegotiate our terms of EU membership, backed by the threat of withdrawal if Brussels says no.

Abandon the disastrous global warming/climate change policies now adopted by Brown (another certain vote loser for him) and oppose the destruction of our countryside by the erection of thousands of unsightly and useless wind turbines.

[David Sergeant]

Cameron has already intimated a change of tactics following Henley by calling for laying off attacks on Brown. I can see the point, Brown is so awful attacking him might get him the sympathy of the underdog, some people have even taken to calling him a decent man.

The trouble is he is seen as a laughing stock and incompetent, and this misses the main point about Brown. Two examples; his demolition of private pensions where he buried the information in his budget figures without telling parliament and his abolition of the 10% band where it was not mentioned in his speach so Cameron only found out about it later. This man is despicable, that he has got anywhere near leadership of this country is shaming. We should not lay off Brown completely

However, by laying off Brown we should concentrate on Labour in general, Brown, his governing and his methods are pure Labour and they are all tarred with the brush. The above two examples were cheered by Labour MPs to the echo and pensioners and 10% tax payers are among the poorest. Says it all really.

[Winston C]

It is heart warming to see these poll leads and the leadership team deserve great credit.We should pause however, and call to mind the single most crucial turning point.

This occured when George Osborne stood up in Blackpool and nailed us to the tax cutting agenda.This resonated massively with the hard pressed middle classes and made them begin to listen.

I feel we are now in a new phase of oue electoral cycle and whilst I would urge humility and caution we are going to win.The numbers from the psephologist are simply to much against Brown and is no Lazarus.

The aim for us now is to develop our programme for government.This can not include a pledge to hold true to Labour's spending plans.The country is ready to hear the message of lower taxes.If we can articulate this now Labour will not only be beaten but could ,in the near future,be obsolete.That is the prize we should aim for.Never again should statism and big government be allowed to infect our body politic.

[T. England]

How many polls do there have to be showing the Tories slaughtering Labour before polls just become meaningless? Maybe saturation point has already arrived!
What do the polls really show?
Can people really express what has turned them away from Labour & back to the Tories? Sometimes I suppose! Depends on what the question is!
What can all the main parties really gain from these polls?
In this crazy politically correct human rights filled society that Labour have forced us Brits to tolerate! Many people no longer feel they can really say what is on their mind & so they aren’t able to express the real reasons behind their voting intentions! This isn’t right, this isn’t helpful! But it’s the way Labour has made it!

Labour it seems want to believe that their disastrous poll ratings, losing the Mayor election, loss of every election they are taking lately & having the most unpopular leader in history is only due to the credit crunch & the mishap with the ten pence tax!
Really! ROFL!
They just don’t seem to be able to acknowledge that things like pushing us deeper into the EU & not letting us vote on it! Or immigration & the rapid unwanted change to the British society, or making rules that favour everyone except for the people who have to pay for the implementation & upkeep, or telling a mainly white male dominated society that they have to take second place in the job market just because Labour lefties think it’s fair to demand such rules/laws from white men, or making the English feel like they, as a culture, are being erased, just for example! Would have no affect on how people would vote!! Come on!?

Polls never really seem to dig to the real reasons that make the public turn on a party that until not to far back they would have happily voted for!
I think to have such “deep” polls would uncover prejudices MPs, especially Labour MPs, couldn’t deal with!

I’ll start!
How about!
Does Gordon being Scottish have any thing to do with his popularity?
After all! It was said that Neil Kinnock being Welsh had an affect on the English voter!

How about!
How much are you looking forward on a scale of one to ten on having a multicultural society & all the fun it brings in your town or village?

I’d find the answers to these sort of questions a more interesting read than the usual drivel we get.

[ethan hurlington]

the bbc seems to like highlighting our lead:

http://img80.imageshack.us/img80/3471/dearleaderxj9.jpg

[Joe James Broughton]

The polls are still very good - even increasing in some.

I am worried, however, by the drip drip of expenses stories. Spelman, who I had been very pro and would like to still support, has unfortunately looked rather silly - the story is coming out in dribs and drabs. I think she might have to go, unless the national party are satisfied it was a mis-understanding or in the rules at the time, and the fall out can be contained.

The Wintertons - really. £22,000 claimed in rent when they'd paid off the mortgage.

We can take some comfort from Wendy Alexander, but actually, it was over about £900 from one crank that wasn't properly declared.

And then there's the Euro MEPs.

I'm sorry to put a dampener on it, but these things must be dealt with swiftly whilst we're ahead.
We are trying to convince people this is a fresh team that is on their side, and will make sure their hard earned money is well spent, or not spent. People who let us down should expect to be punished.