We're calling London for Boris

Polling stations are now closing... Based on a wide range of conversations we've had throughout the day with people in the field and with senior Tory and other insiders we are very confident that on the basis of patterns of turnout, postal votes and canvass returns Boris Johnson has been elected Mayor of London.

Comments

[Kate Bollinger]

Wow! brave...

[Hugo]

Early call... I do hope your right.

[Voice from the South West]

I hope you're right! Jack W on Political Betting has also called it for Boris.

[Sally Roberts]

Writing this from Ravenscourt Park Ward in Hammersmith. We have achieved a 50% turnout of our pledges and so have other wards in Hammersmith. It's looking extremely good..fingers crossed folks!!!

[Jaz]

I hope you are right!

[Will Stobart]

Wow, this is early. Good call if you're right ;)

[Richard]

Hope this is correct. I left for work early today just so I could vote for Boris first thing.

[David]

It's ConservativeHome wot won it.

[Geoff]

Based on the phonecalls I've made today - it's looking like a good result. I'm holding my breath still but the other target areas that I've been helping out with on the phone are also looking surprisingly positive.

We came from a very high point at the last point of this electoral cycle but it does look like we have exceeded our expectations.

[Adam]

I hope you're right. I dont think London could survive another 4 years of Ken.

[Ben Surtees]

A brave call indeed... would be a fantastic result!

A small group of us headed down to Ealing from Leicester yesterday and have spent plenty of time campaigning there... will be even more worthwhile if Boris has actually done it!

[Pyers]

Careful guys ... remember Truman v Dewey .....

[Jon White]

Incredibly brave call this early in the evening. I so hope that it's a correct call. If it's not, ConHome could suffer a 'Dewey Beats Truman' moment.

All we can do now is wait.

C'mon Boris!!!!

[Sarah Richardson]

Just back home after the day in Churchill ward in Westminster. Turnout up a third on four years ago. Pledges solid - but lots of people who are never in to canvass, who never vote who've come out today. People who say they don't usually vote Conservative who say they have voted for Boris. Cab drivers slowing down and peeping their horn at my rosette. People shaking my hand as I sat telling. Ok - I'm a local councillor and we hold this council seat with a comfortable majority. But the response was fantastic.

I think you're right.

[Political Rhino]

You're going to look bloody stupid if Livingstone holds on...

[Josh]

Hoping you're right, of course, but you're taking a huge risk by calling it this early. If you're wrong, the Lab folks will absolutely love it. Pb.com will be full of gloating Lab supporters if Boris doesn't win after all the hype. They'll be crowing like an Alfred Hitchcock film and they'd be within their rights to do so.

None of us want that.

[Andy D]

Brave/foolish*

*delete as applicable tomorrow

Here's hoping you're right though.

[Essex Boys]

We bet you're right and good riddance to bad, malodourous rubbish!

Well done BJ (if you'll pardon the epithet...)!!

[Janis]

Oh I do hope you are right. Here in Chingford, we have met with real enthusiasm for Boris and real hate for Livingstone, have walked the streets and telephoned canvassed and all have promised to come out, so fingers & toes crossed. Just one thing, many have said that second preference went to BNP, will be interesting to see if they did actually vote for them, and if so what the politicians of all parties make of it,

[Chris Keating]

Foolhardy.

No-one's canvass figures will be accurately recording second preferences in the Mayoral race. And turnout is high across the board, including boroughs where neither sight nor sound of Conservative activists has been seen for many decades.

You might be right - but I doubt any of your 'data' apart from the last few opinion polls...

[graham p malpas]

the beginning of the end of the new labour nightmare!

[Paul D]

Pride comes before a fall

I just hope you're right, they're already reporting this claim on $ky News

[Afleitch]

I can imagine the scene at Labour HQ -'commence ballot stuffing...now! Those postal ballots won't count themselves now will they' :)

[Rothers]

Big turn outs in Lewisham, Greenwich, Newham and Tower Hamlets. So going to be very very close and foolish to call something where you have no idea of how second preference break.

[Tim]

Good Luck Boris

[Dave]

Here in Lewisham things are looking great for Boris, exceptionally high turnout in this otherwise pittiful Labour area. Today is a great day for Conservative Democracy!

[Owen]

seems to be consensus. lets hope the ballots match the predictions

[Charles P]

Turnout also appeared to be fairly high in inner London Lambeth Kennington and Clapham). So to my mind we need firm evidence of a GREATER increase in turnout in Tory outer London than in Labour inner London before we can get too euphoric.

I was telling in a marginal Tory/Labour Ward this evening from 5.30pm to 8.15pm and, based on the demography of who was voting, I am cautious. The turnout from the social housing areas was just as high as from our better streets.

I still think Boris will sneak it, but not at all certain...

[Cllr. Nigel Fletcher]

Huge turnout in my ward in Eltham North, Greenwich - 50 per cent of Conservative pledges marked as voting, which looks very, very good for us. Fingers crossed.

[sertorius]

Good turnout in Westminster, with our pledges making up 50% of voters in many wards

[Sam R]

Just entered up my final responses from my 'phone calls and its looking good.
Wow!
Hope to enjoy the rest of the night. Blue is the colour!

[Wandsworth Tory]

I think Boris will win comfortably. On the streets that I've been working during this campaign, which I've been working for 8 years or so, the change towards Boris is remarkable. People looking very cheerful as they set out to vote too, repeatedly saying "we need a change" and "we've got to get him out". Last Mayoral, a lot of these people were giving Ken the benefit of the doubt a second time. But not a third. I'm hoping he'll win on first preferences... And many thanks to the Evening Standard for their helpful headline suggesting Boris only just ahead, which might have galvanised some more people. We had a veritable flood after work, seemed more than normal.

[RedWedge]

Social housing compared to our better streets?!?!

You Tories are so arrogant, us poor people couldn't possibly count as equals to the parastic middle class could we?!

Livingstone is a London man, a people's politician. Johnson is a bumbling, racist buffoon....oh, Tory archetype there then

It's the fault of the right....of the devil incarnate Mrs Thatcher and her political offsrping shiny Tony...that the country's in such a state.

Wake up and smell the coffee and rebuild British Socialism

[toby hall]

here's hoping the lot of you are wrong...although having a moron racist toff like boris in charge for the next 18mths will wake england up to realising the tories nationally would be a big mistake...shame it might be ken who pays the price. but at least yerl all be able to carry on driving yer c*ck extension 4x4s from the outer boroughs into central london. at least all us peasants will be better of paying for conductors on buses again (?!?!)...come on, i bet not one of you could name another of Boris' policies- oh sorry, yes, more police, although i assume his tory colleagues on the assembly will continue to vote against budget increases to fund these...maybe he'll use 'volunteers' to pretend to be police???...interesting times ahead regardless, even if london does grind to a crashing halt again in the process!

[PortugueseClass]

I've been watching this election from Lisbon with interest (being ex-Barnet, Ealing and Feltham & Heston activist). I do hope you're right, but I was also on the No Campaign in Wales back in 1997. We thought we had it in the bag until 5.30 am. Be very careful. It's never over until the fat lady sings.

[rexie]

"Wake up and smell the coffee"

So dated that even M&S are using it.

[Richard]

Well here in Purley there does not seem to have been great support for Boris, quite a lot still saying they were going to vote for Ken, a lot of doubts from my straw polling that Boris Johnson has the ability to actually manage anything successfully and might be a liability for London..and really seems to have no grasp of detail...noone seems to really know what he stands for...

[Old Whig]

Without doubt, today was very positive on the Polling Stations for Boris Johnson. It certainly felt like he won.

I voted for him and campaigned for him, but am I alone in feeling a little worried? The Boris manifesto was very thin on detail and in the past a limited agenda of policies has led to drift in government. Remember the 1992 General Election Manifesto?

Winning is just the first hurdle. Boris will have to deliver a real change in London otherwise disappointment will set in fast and he could turn from a great asset to No. 1 liability overnight. He also needs to cut down on the clowning now that there is a serious job to do.

Anyway, well done Conservative Home for having the guts to call it so early.

[Duh]

You're calling this "Based on a wide range of conversations we've had"? Wow, how scientific. I didn't know you'd gone to so much trouble.

While we're at it, I think I'll call the russian election of 2012 based on the colour of my belly button fluff.

[RedWedge]

The Conservative Party-
So dated anarchronistic characatures get to stand for mayor of London.

When you peek out of your suburban net curtains have any of you ever spotted tolerance? No? Didn't think so!

You'll win the next elecion yes, but hey we've had a right wing government since the Thatcher fiasco so there's not going to be that much of a change.

Conservatism- centuries of unchanged rule by the privelegded few who believe money gives them the right to trample over who they like.

Socialism- Everyone equal, tax the rich more and the poor less, equal rights for gays, immigrants and minorities in an ever changing world.

It's obvious., no? All you facists are bound to loose.

[True Spence]

Good luck British friends!

Conservatives the world over will rejoice if Ken is shown to the door.

[Malcolm Dunn]

Why are you using an American expression 'calling it' rather than just saying 'we predict a victory for Boris Johnson'? Hope you're right though your prediction is being quoted all over the place so it's fame or (in)fame for Conhome!

[rexie]

You're winding us up wedgie. If you think socialism has got anything to do with tolerance, you haven't been watching

[Thismachinekills]

Charles P, the tragedy is you'll probably never understand why comments like, "The turnout from the social housing areas was just as high as from our better streets", resonate far beyond mere syllables.
If this call is right, then London will have to deal with the consequences of electing a man who doesn't represent it and certainly doesn't know it. It will be a grave shame, and London will lose its verve overnight.

[ADE]

"Socialism- Everyone equal, tax the rich more and the poor less..."

Yes, very equal...

[1992 in reverse]

Let's see the evidence so far on this thread:

People talking about great turnouts in Westminster, Hammersmith, Lewisham,Newham and Tower Hamlets, Lambeth - rather Zone 1 and 2 don't you think?

We also know of Tories in strong Tory inner areas who vote for Tory in Generals and Ken in Mayorals.

Can I add three more areas which I am told had a good turn out: the Labour half of Merton, Hackney and more urban bits of Sutton.

Other info on this thead: Boris not doing so well in Purley.

I wonder why we are not hearing about Bexley, Bromley and Havering?

So far I see a little contradiction to the "call" this website has made??

[RedWedge]

Equal in the amount that each of us pays in relation to gross earnings. It stands to reason that if you are fortunate to earn more then you should contribute more to society, although as we all know 'There's no such thing as society'. Having everyone paying the same and earning the same is Communism and that is as bad as Facism.

When was the last time Conservatism benefitted the masses and not just the Old Boys club and the rank disgrace of middle class middle England?

[David]

According to Nick Robinson on the BBC election programme, Bexley's turnout is higher than at General Elections.

[David]

"When was the last time Conservatism benefitted the masses"

The right to buy council houses under Thatcher is one example.

[Bert]

For London's sake lets hope not - I don't see how a Tory Toff is going to help our capital.

[RedWedge]

The right to buy council houses is indeed, David, a good thing in principle. In practice, however, only those who could afford it could do it and Thatcher's subsequent refusal of permission to build more led to a chronic shortage of social housing and those who'd utilised right to buy ended up absorbed into the middle class.

We are still reaping the benefits of Thatcherism not least in not having adequete social housing programmes, something which New Labour did nothing to rectify....that'll make a change then

[tynemouth tory]

I'm at a bit of a loss as to why Boris is being described as a racist.

He has a much sharper mind than his detrators on this forum, despite what might be seen as his outwards buffoonery.

What you have to watch out for is the second preference votes. Here in North Tyneside we won the last Mayoral on first preference and had it snatched away on the second preference votes.

The price we paid for this was a third rate, second choice, first order buffoon of a mayor.

[KEN4THECHOP]

Bit brave calling Boris the winner, we will see after the second run off :)

god i hope your right

[alan]

From what I have heard from others in Hillingdon it seems a candidate with some substance in the Ken Clarke type of way would have been a clear favourite to win despite lets be fair a lot of respect for Ken Livingstone across the board, having Boris Johnosn was a mistake and means its going to be close either way...and then if he wins, he'll probably cause problems for Cameron

[jeff cushway]

you people are completely and utterly bonkers to have called it for boris on the basis of such slim information. i suggest that you stick some money on ken at seven to one which are ridiculous odds for a two horse race, in order that you hedge some of your abject disappointment when ken wins, with a little financial gain!

[MistressDaintyFidget]

I, like many others I know, make a point of not talking to people with blue rosettes, so your conversations will be about as a pub survey of how many people like drinking in pubs.

The Conservative Party once again proving what idiots they are. As if choosing Johnson in the first place wasn't enough.

[MistressDaintyFidget]

and still less accurate than my post which I didn't preview before posting...

[HEADING4AFOOL]

baldy nick robison from bbc has run this story
http://www.bbc.co.uk/blogs/nickrobinson/

my god if the bbc is reporting Boris has won you may just be right

Come on BJ you can do

[Andy]

This page has been saved and will be offered to you tomorrow so you may wipe the egg of your face.

[Thismachinekills]

I'm in shock. Portillo talking sense on the Beeb, making the point that Tory MPs have a lot to fear from a Boris mayorality.
If Boris sneaks it, the nation will get a clear two years to see what a mistake electing an old Etonian 'personality' is, and they may just well think twice before electing another.
Let's not forget, you lot wanted Greg Dyke as your candidate before you wanted Boris! Or have you all forgotten?

[Andy]

This page has been saved and will be offered to you tomorrow so you may wipe the egg of your face.

[dirty european socialist]

Having had 400 seats declared out of 4000. Labour have lost 9 seats so far. So surely the extrapolation would be 9 times 10. 90 seats. That is my brave prediction. :

[Andy]

Not to forget Boris was third choice, so far as we know, behind Brian and Greg Dyke!

[Edison Smith]

Iain Dale - turnout in London 70% in places??

Wtf?!

[Thismachinekills]

HEADING4AFOOL, please tell me you're kidding. Tory boy Robinson is merely reporting the speculation on this blog.

[Mr Angry]

You see Red Wedge you are a microcosm of why Leavingsoon has lost. You, he, and that unpleasant Labour rump currently ruining our economy and country, are so bogged down in the politics of envy and a class war that you have not only lost but that everyone else has long moved on from, that no-one can take you lot seriously in any sphere of government anymore.

[Rothers]

On Bexley, the north of the borough is very Labour, so it depends on how it breaks north and south. Also add Derek Conway into the debate in that area

[MikeV]

Socialism- Everyone equal, tax the rich more and the poor less,
Posted by: RedWedge | May 01, 2008 at 23:45

Errr.. and so the abolition of the 10p tax band by a labour prime minister therefore doubling the tax on the poorest in society didn't happen then? Ok fair enough.

[Mr Angry]

Oh and in one of the polling districts in my, solidly Tory, ward turnout was over 70% and all of it anti Leavingsoon and anti Labour.

Here comes another well deserved 18 years in the wilderness for Labour, possibly even longer, as more and more people realise what destruction Labour have wrought on what was a strong economy.

[Rob]

The idea that Boris was 3rd choice seems like myth and mischief to me. A few people may have considered approaching Greg Dyke and apparently even Brian Paddick, but we were already committed a primary process so the candidacy was not on offer to anyone.

Oh my, as I write this, Jeremy Vine is doing some absurd cowboy routine with a cringeworthy accent. When did election results become Comic Relief?

[TheTruth]

God I hope not. How ironic that the people living outside London can vote in a Tory mayor for the inner city. My only consolation is that this buffoon might well do your party of the privilaged some serious damage.

[Freddo]

MikeV you clearly have no idea how the tax system works. Abolishing the 10p band does not 'double the tax on the poorest in society'. I hope your parents didn't pay for your education - if they did they should ask for a refund.

[Mohamed]

in politics, like in other walks of life, it can be costly to take one's wishes as realities.
another point. as a Muslim, if that blond man, whose conception of being witty is to be rude and insulting, wins it would not be necessairly a bad thing for Muslims. it would create a siege mentality and positive fear among Muslim londoners... they will learn to change their situation by focusing on their community instead of having just and decent English politican as mayor. by the way, this is not another wishful-thnking. sleep well, have a nice dream because tomorrow it is nightmare for u.

[bigdave]

Mr Angry I am amused that you consider the economy was strong before Labour came in. You must be forgetting, or ignoring, the early nineties. That said, much of the continuous economic growth of the last 10 years has been an illusion I think, based on selling houses to each other for ever more ridiculous prices. You will never convince me that a Tory government would have prevented this situation - believing as it does on limited regulation and maximum individual 'freedom' (or greed...depending on your point of view). It's a great shame that a Labour government wasn't brave enough to intervene.
The result of all this will be that Labour will lose the next election on the grounds of economic (in)competance, leaving the Tories to take over - which will only encourage more of the same. Sad times indeed.

[Alex Swanson]

London will have to deal with the consequences of electing a man who doesn't represent it

A comment like this really tells you all you need to know about socialism.

And I bet all you socialists reading this are baffled as to why.

[Pete]

Isn't this a bit bold? While it may be encouraging to see high turnouts in outer London areas, the Ken-voting inner city areas also turned out in good numbers. I just hope that you aren't made to look the fool in 24 hours time.

[fifi]

why are people so hateful? there's nothing so repulsive as the vision of the privileged classes in full throttle. will London follow Rome and elect a farcical phalangist? shame on you all!

[Alex Swanson]

I don't see how a Tory Toff is going to help our capital.

What exactly is your problem? Just plain bigotry? Nobody would make remarks like this were based on race or gender but attacking someone because of his class (and don't forget BTW that Blair went to public school) seems to be OK.

If you disagree with his policies then say so. But simple abuse just demonstrates that the Left exists only for mindless hatred.

[Charles P]

I seem to have got some grief well up this thread for stating that turnout seemed just as high from the social housing areas than from our better streets. I agree it's a bit glib because everyone knows there are lots of Tories in social housing and vice versa, but is anyone seriously suggesting that if you were standing as a Tory candidate in inner London you would not stand a better chance if the ward was totally made up of £500,000 ++ Victorian terraces (our better streets) than totally of social housing?

That being the case, if you are trying to get a quick snapshot of where the high turnout is coming from, my quick social analysis is a perfectly fair way of doing it. It's an average, not suggesting total polarisation of politics between the two groups. [If you are left of centre and a representative politician you have the pleasure of representing more people who need your help with social problems, so your case work can make more of a difference to people's lives. If you are right of centre you are more likely to represent somewhere attractive and considered "desirable" to live. If you are a representative in inner London the two elements are often cheek by jowl so you can get the pleasures of both within one polling district.]

The Truth says: "How ironic that the people living outside London can vote in a Tory mayor for the inner city." How symbolic that this poster does not understand that the Mayor is the Mayor of Greater London - not just of the inner city - and that people in Bromley, Barnet, Ealing etc do not live "outside London". I live in inner London, but London's strength is both inner and outer London - they are interdependent. If Ken has lost, then perhaps it was the fact that he doesn't realise this that will have done for him more than anything else. Boris, also an inner Londoner, does understand this and therefore will be the Mayor of all of London.

[Alex Swanson]

I'm at a bit of a loss as to why Boris is being described as a racist.

Any Conservative candidate would have been attacked as a racist regardless. You are making the mistake of assuming that socialists are interested in fact or honesty.

[Alex Agius]

where are Conservative home bloging from tonight?

[Robbie]

He coudn't run a bath! Let alone London.

[Dave]

have i got news for you....who suspects Boris' largest gaffe is yet to come!

[Warner Todd Huston]

Good luck to Boris and you Londoners. Maybe, if you close your eyes and wish really, really hard, you can make Londonistan a western city again.

...if it isn't too late, of course.

[SI]

If Boris has won, London will be a very nasty place to live and work for the next four years, and Livingstone will have his work cut out for him when he returns to office in 2012.

[Matt Wright]

Just got home from my own LA count. A night which I knew had gone well in N Wales when we finished ringing our pledges and I actually rang my ACD to say I couldn't believe the figures there must be something wrong! My own ward I won with 75% of the vote. Labour staring at meltdown nationally.

[Peter Clough]

The result might surprise everyone. The predicted national share has Labour third, behind the Lib Dems. If that's repeated in London, the second round will be between Johnson and Paddick, not Livingstone. In which case, Paddick will win a landslide.

[Tangent]

Peter Clough - nonsense. There's no reason why the national projection should reflect London voting patterns, and the cores of both parties in London are much stronger than the LD core.

[Roman Abramovitch]

The bookies called this for Boris some weeks ago.
Yes he is "home and hosed"

[Carl Packman]

Boris' win may be so (not as yet fact), but his foppish hubristic nonsense will be the biggest loss since the GLC in 86'. Those who want continued care and substance for London over pomp and racism should endorse Ken.

[englandism.com]

Nick Robinson gives it too Boris on BBC Today on the basis of Robinson's Interpol.

Red-wedgey. Pull your pants up, numbnuts.

[David Galea]

These morons who are accusing Boris of racism are unquestioning Guardian readers. They are stupid.

[LondonLX]

Socialists still seem to bring class into everything, promoting themselves as the working class and govern to look after the working class.
Therefore, by their own definition it's lunatics running the asylum.
Given by some of the comments from them in this thread, it's a fair assessment!
Time for people to know what they are doing to take over and think of everyone.

Mohamed said "...instead of having just and decent English politican as mayor"
Boris may not be english, but he seems just & decent, and given his origins, more likely to treat muslims better and not segregate them from the rest of society.

[comstock]

Are you standing by this declaration, in the cold light of day? Even if your people had a good day, this doesn't mean victory.

Two cautionary notes.

1) remember 1992 (as others have said)

2) just because people are turning out it doesn't mean they are voting Boris. Indeed some commenters on PB are suggesting a *lower* turnout would have favoured Johnson.

I expect Ken to hang on, and I think you were very rash to post this, but we shall see.

[Andrew Lilico]

Is there any chance Boris could have taken it on first preferences?

[John]

Thinking along the lines that politicians like diapers should regularly be changed I think Johnson will win.

But what sort of man is he?

The killing of seals: Boris Johnson "The Canadian fisherman has as much right to go out clubbing as the average British 18-year-old"

"If you have men who will exclude any of God's creatures from the shelter of compassion and pity, you will have men who will deal likewise with their fellow men." - St. Francis of Assisi

Clearly, he has no compassion or pity for any of God's creatures. 270,000 infant seals have been targeted to be battered to death by brutal fishermen that attack not only such helpless creatures but any journalists documenting the slaughter. A report written by Danny Penman stated: "Six trucks then chased us across open fields and sand dunes and repeatedly smashed into us. Other fishermen pelted us with bricks and rocks. Several vehicles, including mine, were written-off in the series of attacks."

[EML]

Boris is an independent Conservative, just as Ken was an independent Labour politician - just what the weird and wonderful make-up of a city like London want (and the only sort of politician that can hope to get enough votes from such a huge single constituency).

Plenty of people just don't get him - his sense of humour, his pragmatic yet sometimes radical libertarianism, and the fact that he is very clever.

[woodentop]

Morning Comstock! Are you ready for that run all the way down Oxford Street this evening? You're lucky the weather isn't going to be cold today - but you might get rather wet if there's a passing shower!

[Anon]

Boris must be mad! He is giving up a safe seat (Henley) in Parliament for London Mayor. I predict the Olympics will be a fiasco, hugely over budget, and he will take the fall for it. He will be out of work after the next election for Mayor. Maybe even Ken will take it back from him.
Thinking about it, it's a gift for Ken...let some other mug take the fall for the Olympics, have a sabbatical, and then come back!
Crikey Boris, you could have been 30 years an MP and then a seat in the Lords. Talk about throwing it all away?

[Paul Oakley]

Equal in the amount that each of us pays in relation to gross earnings. It stands to reason that if you are fortunate to earn more then you should contribute more to society

Didn't realise that socialists are now supporters of a flat tax! Well done, comrade.