Tories 26% ahead

YouGov for The Sun
Conservatives 49%
Labour 23%
Liberal Democrats 17%

7.55pm: See The Sun: "LABOUR has slumped to its lowest point since records began in the 1930s, a devastating Sun poll reveals tonight. And the Tories are enjoying their second biggest poll lead in history... Our poll shows that Labour would be in deeper trouble even if they were led by Tony Blair.  And it confirms potential successors Ed Balls, David Miliband, Jack Straw, Harriet Harman, Andy Burnham, Alan Johnson and James Purnell would ALL make things even worse in voters’ eyes."

8.07pm, The graphic:

8.14pm: For those who need extra reassurance that this poll is for real...!

10.10pm:

Comments

[Curly]

Like.....wow!

[Oberon Houston]

http://www.thesun.co.uk/sol/homepage/news/article1142543.ece

[James]

This kind of poll just makes me nervous that complacency will set in.

But fair play to YouGov - they're proven right over and over again.
On a more euphoric note: We're on 49! We have a 9 point lead over our opponents combined!
Electoral Calculus makes that:
C 469
Lab 129
LD 24

[Nick]

Party 2005 Votes 2005 Seats Pred Votes Pred Seats
CON 33.24% 208 49.00% 469
LAB 36.21% 347 23.00% 129
LIB 22.65% 66 17.00% 24

CONSERVATIVE MAJORITY: 288!

[Paul D]

Crikey, that's a good poll - best lead for how many years?

When will we get the first naysayer claiming we should be 35 or more points ahead?

[Editor]

Thanks Oberon. I've added a link to The Sun piece (and thanks for emailing me about it in the first place!).

[YMT]

woah... just... woah...

[Dave H]

Think I may actually enjoy watching This Week tonight ..

[Robert Simpson]

I almost fell out of my seat when I read that, incredible!

[Oberon Houston]

Paul D 19:58... Crikey: Its the TORIES!

[comstock]

I really don't know where Labour goes from here. If they call an election in 2009 they might lose, if they hang on to 2010 they might well lose even more heavily.

Even allowing for some swing back to the incumbants (which happened even in 1997) it is looking like a Tory government. I think Brown should go for broke, hike taxes on the rich, up the minimum wage and increase workers rights.

He won't of course, he will play safe- and lose.

[Daniel Furr]

Even if the government changed the voting system, Tories would still have a massive majority.

The tide has officially turned in British politics today. No question of it now. Labour are dead. Nobody comes back from a poll rating /that/ low.

[Hitchens]

When will the useless Tories do better, they should be at least 78% ahead.

Christopher Hitchens.

[Paul]

It's covered here. It's covered on the Sky news website. For some reason the BBC site has failed to mention it.....

[Henry Cook]

The Tories aren't doing well enough, this poll shows that David Cameron's strategy is totally misguided.

NOW say we can't win the next election Portillo!

[michael m]

We must keep this in proportion- there will definately be 2 years to the General Election, by which time Labour could have yet another leader( which like Brown they will claim is a change of Government) and there may be some miracle on the economic front.
I know team Cameron will keep a proper balance here- what the polls say in 6 months time will be a more reliable indiactor.

[bluepatriot]

If this was anyone other than YouGov I'd be suspicious but IT IS YouGov!!!!

[English Dumbocrat]

David Cameron is going to lose this election unless he gives us an English Parliament.

Err...

[comstock]

Even if the government changed the voting system, Tories would still have a massive majority.

I think you are right. I support 1st/2nd preference, because it makes fewer seats safe and more votes count. But to introduce it now would look desparate, and could backfire badly. Plus in the recent London Mayoral contest the system only very marginally favoured Labour.

Labour are dead. Nobody comes back from a poll rating /that/ low.

I wonder what the tories lowest rating was, in the time between 1987 and 1992....proberbly not as low as that.....

[Oberon Houston]

I'm not so cautious Michael: Something significant is going on here. I think the mood of the people has changed. Once its turned, its almost impossible for the incumbents to recover. All that will errode our lead will be if we gaff all over the place. In which case votes will drift to the Lib Dems - so far that hasn't happened - Very Encouraging!

[Paul D]

comstock, there's a fair amount of "swingback" debate in post-1997 parliaments - the swing has still been to the Tories, rather than to Labour (relative to opinion polls). I doubt the polls can get much worse for Labour than they are already, but swingback is far from assured

[Oberon Houston]

The government will collapse if their ratings stay this low.

[Senor Portillo]

26% is a very poor show and the plans to remove DC and GO should be started manyana.

[Andrew]

This indicates that LibDem voters in the elections were voting tactically against Labour. Now we can see the real extent of contempt for Brown and Labour in a poll which has no tactical voting.

David needs to get his kneeling before the Queen practise asap.

Labour has brought democracy to Iraq. When will it give it to Britain... perhaps a chant in the commons: Democracy Now! Election Election Election.

[Tony Makara]

Labour are now in total freefall, a party coup is the only possible course of action they can contemplate. If this continues the next election will be as good as a walkover.

[Rob L]

A new dawn has broken has it not?

[Jon]

I like how the poll also reveals that the greatest contempt is reserved for Harriet Harperson and Ed Balls. They deserve it.

[Tyke Tory]

But if we were talking about Europe we would be doing so much better!!!!

C'mon Dave, speak for England!

[Andrew Woodman]

How will portillo present this as bad news??

[David (One of many)]

Amazing - I also love the fact that it gets worse for Labour if they change their leader. Milliband would see them on 19% and Balls on 13%.

Oh, and Nick Clegg would lose his seat.

[Andrew James]

I don't have the required vocabulary to describe a 26% lead without heavy doses of euphoric swearing. I've reserved that for phone calls to fellow Tories.

UK Elect has fun with this:

Con 451
Lab 141
LD 21
SNP 12

CON MAJ 254

On these figures, Labour are obliterated pretty much everywhere, even losing two seats in Nottingham, Leicester West (!), Wallasey, Bury South, Stalybridge, Oldham, and.... Darlington!

We now need other pollsters to fall into line. They must all show leads of over 15%, preferably 20%.

We have come so far over the last 2 and a half years. But there must be no let-up - we have to destroy this terrible government once and for all.

[Henry Mayhew - 'kipper]

That just brings in a government committed to Labour's spending plans without any more policy ideas than to say "Let the Etonians have a go now. They must be pretty intelligent and sorted". What a farce two years out. Not an idea between them.

p.s. What's the point of Liam Fox, David Davis etc in the Cult of Dave?

Well done on a great poll, but I'm not into pollitics. You were going to win eventually due to Labour policy disasters. Why not stand for something and argue for it? Are going to try to con the electorate with 'compassionate conservatism'? Look what that has done to George Bush.

[YMT]

"Tyke Tory"

The problem is that we don't know what to say about Europe, anyway! We have a much bigger problem with Scotland, we have no real presence there, and that has to change.

[Daniel Furr]

Question is; will Brown now "sink the ship"? With a poll like this you cannot expect Labour MPs to start supporting a unpopular government. Especially John McDonnell on the left.

Many Cabinet ministers are quietly favouring an early election and rebuilding the party in opposition.

[Tory Bear]

Glorious glorious news!

Check out ToryBear a new blog that will be officially launching soon but already live!

www.torybear.blogspot.com

Feedback would be most appreciated!

TB

[Senor Portillo]

Pay attention Andrew Woodman, I already have and I will re-itterate it tonight when cuddling up to she wot is all woman on This Week

[Editor]

Stay tuned btw - we'll be holding a live chatroom from 10.30pm until after midnight for Question Time and The Week.

[Tony Makara]

These monster leads are almost starting to make me feel sorry for Coco Blears as the Labour government sends her out onto our TV screens again and again to take yet another custard pie in the face. In case we start getting too soft about killing off the wounded Labour animal we had better send for the brutal Louise Bagshawe who will make sure that we 'do for them' and show no mercy!

[Graham Doll]

Hurrah, the lost decade is coming to an end, the pendulum has swung back at last. The Tories are stronger than ever and Brown is a laughing stock. It's all over for Snotgobbler and his grasping Labour chums, and not a moment too soon.

[Richard Calhoun]

This is excellent news, I guess we will see Labour see sawing over the next 2 years on poll ratings but it should be comfortably within the Tories target of a 40% + lead by the election.

I do hope the Cameron critics and sceptics have the grace to admit the guy has got it right!!

[English Dumbocrat]

Tyke Tory, you're right. We should forget about all these stupid subjects like the NHS and environment, and start talking more about Europe, immigration and the West Lothian Queston, just as we did under Michael Howard and IDS. Then our poll ratings would be MUCH better.

Dave is leading the Tories to disaster and electoral failure!!

[Oberon Houston]

The 10p tax will go down as Browns Black Wednesday moment.

[Andy D]

Congratulations to all you hard-working activist types whose achievements are being cheered by armchair supporters like, erm, me.

I trust the party's high command enough to be confident they'll not appear smug, arrogant or complacent, and I hope they keep driving onwards in the same manner.

[James Burdett]

Also this poll must have been taken before Bendy Wendy's coup de grace on Brown. Heaven above knows what the polls will look like after that filters through!

[CCHQ Spy]

Unbelievably good. I'm going to lie down for a nap and hope this is still true when I wake up.

[Deborah]

Boris getting in has shown that lots and lots of people voted Tory. Obviously they couldn't all be heartless b..tards so people know they are not alone and can finally admit that they'd like to vote Tory too.
It's a big change.

[Boris fan]

This should be called The Boris Bounce.

[Graham Checker]

Hitchens/Senor Portillo:

Very funny!!! LOL!

Unbelievable poll. Just incredible...

A solid, absolute majority (50%+) of the vote in England.

Stunning.

[Votedave]

By God, it's incredible!

Not since the late 1960s have we had such a large lead.

[Richard]

"I think Brown should go for broke, hike taxes on the rich, up the minimum wage and increase workers rights."

Not a wise idea unless you want to face reprisals. Remember what we did to the North in the early 80s as revenge for 5 years of Old Labour socialism...

[swindon lad]

ok - this is looking good, conservatives to win:
Glasgow North

the following to lose their seats on these figures - this would call for a cheer or lots...:
Dawn Primarolo
Caroline Flint
Alan Milburn
Patrica Hewitt
Geoff Hoon
Frank Dobson
Alun Michael
Tessa Jowell
John Denham
Jack Straw
Jon Cruddas
Charles Clarke
Alistair Darling
Ruth Kelly

[Letters From A Tory]

This is obviously a disaster for Brown, but it is almost as embarrassing for Clegg. Even with Labour at historical lows, he can't even get above 17% - 8% below the 2005 general election.

Two leaders in serious trouble. Well done Mr Cameron.

[Ali Gledhill]

There's a point at which this becomes bad for democracy. Such a massive majority would be unjust and unrepresentative - but Cameron would have free reign on his legislative programme. In an "anything goes" situation like that, it would only be fair to reward the nation with some radical thinking.

[Richard]

On a more serious note, is this due to Labour voters switching to the Tories or due to Labour voters saying "don't know"?

[Louise Bagshawe]

Where's Traditional Tory? :)

Tim, that "Later Comments" thing is horrible! vote traditional ConHome.

I'm off to Crewe and Nantwich Monday. No complacency. Who's going up there?

[Robert Wright]

Absolutely wonderful!!!

[Dave B]

@Comsock 20:08

"Even allowing for some swing back to the incumbents"

There was an interesting piece on Political Betting, "Do Governments always Recover in the Polls", which suggests that there is not a swing to the government at General Elections, but rather a swing to the Conservatives.

[Richard Calhoun]

Apart from Christopher Hitchens facetious comment I still don't think we should count our chickens too early.

Labour must be at a pretty low point now, yes we will win, but we must win with a comfortable majority.

It is extremely good news that we have another 2 years to the election, Labour will be there to be accountable for the results of their policies in the last 10 years and the Tories can work out a plan to cut public spending massively!

[Malcolm Dunn]

Wonderful! But I seriously doubt that the polls will stay this good for long. Labour will fight back,nothing more sure. But the zeitgeist is with us, let's make sure we don't lose it with the intercenine fighting that would lost us an election had we faced a braver opponent.
The story for me is the total failure of the Lib Dems to make progress despite Labour's problems. I feared Clegg when he became leader, I fear him much less now. I suspect the Libs will turn their guns on us more from now on. Will the do a deal with Labour in return for PR? We can't discount it. We must make the case for FPTP now. Please no more garbage about 1st/2nd pref voting from a Conservative.

[Essex Boy]

Nothing on the BBC News web page.

Strange that....

[Dean]

Fantastic news and being YouGov I'm inclined to believe it is accurate - but accurate as a snapshot of an election afterglow which has often produced bounces for parties in the past.

Let's not get complacent or carried away as some of this is likely to be soft support which we need to work hard to firm up. As Cameron mentioned - we don't simply want to win by default either.

God it feels bloody good though!

[Editor]

Thanks for pointing that out Essex Boy, I'll note it in the main post.

[nobody]

As a serious question, how can the BBC be ignoring this still?

Sky just showed the front pages of tomorrow's papers which already have it but the BBC is ignoring it! Nothing on the website and nothing on the news at ten!!

[comstock]

"Not a wise idea(increasing the minimum wage and taxing the rich) unless you want to face reprisals. Remember what we did to the North in the early 80s as revenge for 5 years of Old Labour socialism..."(my bold)

Interesting admission, Richard

[Patsy Sergeant]

What a fantastic morale booster, AND what is that saying ---- Nothing succeeds like success!!!

[John Leonard]

Editor:

I've been told that the BBC has a policy that it will not report on polls in isolation. It will only add them to other stories. I guess Gordon and Labour haven't got much to say tonight.

Strange that.

[Portaloo at Waterloo]

@ Swindon Lad.

THIS IS DISASTROUS. How can the Tories expect to form a Government if they can't take seats like Doncaster Central?

[nobody]

If the BBC doesn't report in isolation then it appears they will happily go out of their way to report polls bad for the tories:

http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/uk_politics/6910417.stm
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/uk_politics/6923304.stm
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/uk_politics/6923497.stm
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/uk_politics/6258310.stm
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/uk_politics/6899686.stm

(I picked July 2007 reports)

[StevenAdams]

This is great news, but it's not reflective of the next GE's result.

Brown can't go any lower in the public's eyes, but no serious Labour contender will want the throne - as they'd undoubtedly lose and then be turfed out at some point... a sort of Hague-fear... right guy, wrong time.

Brown will go under ground for a short period, come back with some left-appealing policies and regain some of the loyal-but-deserted vote. The Tories will begin (!) to be interviewed like the incumbent (i.e. more aggressively, as they were somehow to blame for this situation).

I'm really happy about this poll, but I remember 1992... no one would've thought we would win then... I just hope that complacency doesn't sink in.

[Buckinghamshire Tory]

James at 19:56 is right. We can not allow ourselves to grow complacent, even with such an impressive lead.

With that said however, I think we are finally seeing the end of our long opposition.

[Editor]

The chat room is now open for the next two hours...

http://conservativehome.blogs.com/torydiary/2008/05/tories-26-ahead.html

[Tyke Tory]

English Dumbocrat, exactly people are more concerned about the West Lothian question than they are their own home or job.

About time Cameron realsied that, then we would have a poll lead a bit better than a pathetic 26%.

[Roger]

Fantastic!!!

The tide has definitely turned. Whilst the lead may fall, people who went to Labour are no longer embarassed to vote Tory again. People now know that the Tories can and probably will win. Labour civil war will follow soon.

I understand the need to keep policies under wraps so Labour don't copy them (or pretend to), but we need to start the striptease soon before the 'shallow salesman' tag starts to resonate.

No mention on BBC news (TV or web)!

[Richard]

"Interesting admission, Richard"

It's called tongue in cheek :p

[Cllr Nicholas Bennett]

Bloody Hell!

Surely some mishtake (Bill Deedes)

[Gordon Dudgeon]

Nothing surprises me from the Beeb any more. Even on moring of recent Local election results, they always seemed to be about 50 seats short of what Sky was stating.

[Man in a Shed]

This is a soft lead- based on Labour's unpopularity. The party needs to get its analysis of what has gone wrong widely accepted. Then the public will respond well to our manifesto.

We need something doing for England. We have the political capital to do it. And the reason - it will save the UK.

In Scotland the same protest vote is going to the SNP. We need a more positive vision for the UK's constitution. Equality between the home nations will stabilise our whole nation.

[Another Richard]

@ Swindon Lad.

THIS IS DISASTROUS. How can the Tories expect to form a Government if they can't take seats like Doncaster Central?

Posted by: Portaloo at Waterloo | May 08, 2008 at 22:13

Except Doncaster Central WOULD be a gain according to Electoralcalculus!

[christina Speight]

What matters here is that the taboo against publicly supporting the Tories in place for about 20 years has been shattered. Now it will be events which will decide the voters' choice.

What we don't know is what has happened to the "Won't Vote" category which is never shown in the Newspapers. If that has gone up sharply with former Labour supporters it would probably come down again equally sharply at an actual election. It's not yet on the website .. another couple of days probably.

And NO, I don't think Cameron has got it right at all. With the utter shambles the government of our country is in, as well as consequentially the country itself it would be astonishing if the Tories didn't have a big lead. Just look at the Labour record and ask why on earth are the Cameron clique still promising to follow Labour policies but do them better.

And Richard Calhoun just tell me what is is about Cameron's party that makes you want to vote FOR them (other than they're not Labour)

[Gloy Plopwell]

"This is obviously a disaster for Brown, but it is almost as embarrassing for Clegg. Even with Labour at historical lows, he can't even get above 17% -"

That is compleetly wrong. Sure the tories are doing well at the moment, but we lib dems have held the same at 17 even at the same time. Thats better than the 11 of last october. We have stupendous momentum rebuilding block by block. There is plently of time before the next election to cross over both parties and win the election.

[Philip]

The Tories should be on 100%. Dave must go. (signed S Heffer)

Seriously, excellent news – even if an outrider exaggerating the extent of our massive lead. But we need to keep working on emphasising the positive reasons to vote for us, and not just against an unpopular Govt.

It does seem that David Cameron continues to strike a chord with the public as he talks about the things that are worrying them. Things such as crime and social and family breakdown, as well as the increasing cost of living and Labour's penalising the poor by removing the 10% tax rate....

(Of course the BBC continues to fail to mention this poll - even in their look at the papers at the end of R4's midnight news. John Leonard, 2210, says the BBC will only mention polls as part of another story, but there were other stories tonight they could have added it to, if they wanted to)

Anyway, the Lib Dem chariot is stuck in the mud, unable to move under Calamity.

Labour's chariot wheels have fallen off.

[Philip]

And...admittedly not knowing the timing when the poll was carried out, perhaps Boris banning alcohol on the tube and buses may have added a few points. Something at last for the benefit of peaceful law-abiding majority. Fresh air to voters

[Alex Swanson]

OK people, relax.

(1) This is just one poll.

(2) Past criticisms of Cameron and his team still stand. As late as last autumn the consensus was that Labour would still win an election. What's happened since is a Labour implosion which has nothing to do with Cameron.

Also, please note that past criticism has not only (or even mainly) been that right-wing policies would get higher ratings. The criticism has been that Cameron ditched principle in an effort to get approval from people who would never vote for him anyway. This criticism still stands. There is no evidence that his "moderation" has attracted anybody across from the other side - any defectors (and the local elections showed that there really aren't that many) were pushed rather than pulled. And I hear a lot about how they now have solid policies which would be effective in office, but I never seem to come across anything which actually explains them. As has been repeatedly pointed out, there is no point in the Tories winning office if they then do (in particular in taxation and spending) what Labour would have done anyway.

[Graeme Archer]

perhaps Boris banning alcohol on the tube and buses may have added a few points.
Posted by: Philip

It's worth having a look at the Guardian's CiF piece on this yesterday. Some columnist attempted to have a go, linking it with Section 28, for god's sake -- the posters are almost universally supportive of Boris' action.

Tim, that "Later Comments" thing is horrible! vote traditional ConHome.

I'm off to Crewe and Nantwich Monday. No complacency. Who's going up there?

Posted by: Louise Bagshawe

@Editor, I agree with Louise, the earlier/later comments thing is horrible.

@Louise, >=2 of the Hackney Tory Collective coming to C&N a week on Saturday, the 17th.

And Richard Calhoun just tell me what is is about Cameron's party that makes you want to vote FOR them (other than they're not Labour)

Posted by: christina Speight

oh Christina. Vote *for* Dave because you want civility, decency, openness, generosity. Because you want parents choosing schools and not schools choosing parents. Because you want the middle-class to pay less tax, but not by increasing the taxes of the poorest, and because you know that over time Dave's government will take more and more people out of tax altogether and reduce and flatten taxes for the rest of us. Yes you *do* know this. Because you can see that over time the only solution to poverty is to decrease worklessness, and the only solution for crime is to get children off the conveyor belt to it while there's still time. Because you know that while the spite of a Heffer or a Portillo can be amusing to read, it is ultimately redundant as a prescription for government. Because you fear the biggest problem Britain faces is atomisation, and too many people are drowning in loneliness, and you know that the only way to help this is to emphasise our equality before the law, while empowering communities to look after themselves as far as possible.

[Robbie]

The glass roof of 50% has come sooner then expected - wonder what will happen in six months time - 60%? Fantastic news!

[Chad Noble]

I was going to make the point that YouGov were spot on, on the actual day of the mayoral vote but a whopping 5% out just 3 days before, so extrapolating this predictive error margin back from the likely election date to today would probably mean the Tories should be 1000's of % in front but I am just enjoying watching Brown suffer too much to really care. :-)

[Sally Roberts]

It feels absolutely surreal to be so far in the lead...wonderful but surreal..I keep pinching myself to make sure I'm awake and not having a lovely dream!

Editor - I agree with Graeme, Louise and others - I don't like this "later comments" "previous comments" thing - it's totally confusing!

[Alex Swanson]

Vote *for* Dave because you want civility, decency, openness, generosity.

This is chattering class guff for "spending more taxpayers' money". What I want is truth, justice, freedom and democracy. And CallMeDave has shown no signs of providing any of it.

Because you want the middle-class to pay less tax, but not by increasing the taxes of the poorest

No, he's promised to increase taxes, just less than Labour would, and even then not by much.

and because you know that over time Dave's government will take more and more people out of tax altogether and reduce and flatten taxes for the rest of us.

By insignificant margins if at all.

Because . . . because . . .

Sorry Graeme, this is all just blah, suitable for a religious revival meeting but not for a serious political discussion.

[Editor]

I'm sorry Sally, Louise, Graeme: Limiting the number of comments on a page to fifty was not my idea. Our hosts, Typepad, have introduced the feature to make pageloading easier. There's nothing I can do about it although we are moving platform over the summer.

Tim

[Hardcore Conservative]

I would still like to know what this party actually stands for now and I suspect so do a lot of voters. Yes the party is in the lead and this may or may not last but the crucial point is: if this party forms the next government what are they going to do with their new powers?

There is no point being in power just for powers sake, this would spell more disaster for the country. A true government in waiting, and once in power, wants to make a real difference while using its majority wisely and justly.

The time for hiding behind this poxy governments unpopularity will soon be over and there will need to be some very firm and concrete proposals on the table for the voters to look at, and for the Marxist BBC and papers to snipe at. That’s when we will see just how well this party is doing. It will also test the mettle of the leadership.

[Winifred G Nutt]

This poll is a humiliation for David Cameron -- given the state of the Labour party the Conservatives should have a lead of 26%... oh

[PaulC]

Information request: Does anyone know what the current level of party membership is? About 200,000 people voted in the Cameron/Davis run off and that wasn't 100% turnout. Since then more members will have joined. Any guesses? 300,000, 350,000? Also any ideas on the number of people who come to this site each day? Thanks

[m dowding]

The 10p tax and the retrospective car tax are only two of many, many reasons for this fantastic lead. Don't forget the economic mess that will take generations to clean up. I just hope and pray the state of the Nation's finances is not even worse than they appear.
However this present lot of muppets have absolutely no idea what to do next and should be tried for treason! The sooner we can get rid of them the sooner we can start the clean up.

[Yet Another Anon]

The Crewe and Nantwich by-election will be the major indicator, opinion polls, Devolved and Local Election results for some time have had little relation to actual General Election results at the end of the parliament, the Conservative Party have yet to take a parliamentary seat at a by-election, oppositions on their way to government get huge swings in parliamentary by-elections and even ones not on their way at the following General Election get such huge swings mostly.

People lie to pollsters or are reluctant to admit supporting particular parties at particular times when they are perceived as being very unpopular.

The exact same could be said of "the Brown Bounce" at the end of last year - it was more fashion than anything else, opinion polls tend to exagerate swings in opinion.

[Alex Swanson]

The Crewe and Nantwich by-election will be the major indicator

No, it won't because Cameron has deliberately chosen (at least according to the reports I've seen) to campaign on protest against the 10p tax removal. Therefore if the Conservatives win it that is all it will signify: a protest against one specific Labour policy.

This shows, incidentally, for all you Cameroons out there, what Cameron himself thinks about his two-year "detoxification". If he really thought it was his and his team's efforts that were bringing about high poll levels - and we still only have (count them) one (1) poll much higher than 40% - then he would be campaigning positively to get people to vote for the Tories rather than against Labour. The fact that he isn't really tells you all you need to know.

[passing leftie]

While New Labour's popularity appears to be in freefall, let's check the economic indicators at the ONS, to see how awful things really are, shall we?

CPI inflation 2.5 the same as last month, the government's target compared with 3.4% for Europe.

RPI inflation down from 4.1 to 3.8 this month.

The employment rate for people of working age was 74.9 per cent for the three months to February 2008, up 0.2 from the previous quarter and up 0.6 over the year. The number of people in employment for the three months to February 2008 was 29.51 million. This is the highest figure since comparable records began in 1971 and is up 152,000 over the quarter and up 456,000 over the year. Total hours worked has increased by 0.1 million to reach 939.6 million.

The claimant count was 794,300 in March 2008, down 1,200 over the previous month and down 110,600 over the year. This is the lowest figure since June 1975.

The inactivity rate for people of working age was 20.9 per cent for the three months to February 2008, down 0.1 over the previous quarter and down 0.3 over the year. The number of economically inactive people of working age decreased by 36,000 over the quarter and by 71,000 over the year to reach 7.87 million. This is lower than under the Tories.

[Alex Swanson]

This is lower than under the Tories.

Not really surprising when you consider the expansion of the state over the past eleven years. It's still debatable how many of these newly employed people are actually doing anything worthwhile (and indeed how many of them are doing things that are positively bad, like prosecuting market traders for selling fruit in pounds and ounces).

[Jonathan M. Scott]

The new Labour project always had so many contradictions that it would end up in electoral failure. Now we wait, working hard in the meantime...

[Yet Another Anon]

No, it won't because Cameron has deliberately chosen (at least according to the reports I've seen) to campaign on protest against the 10p tax removal. Therefore if the Conservatives win it that is all it will signify: a protest against one specific Labour policy.
The Liberal Democrats will campaign on the issue as well no doubt, and so will UKIP.

I wasn't saying it would be neccessarily more than a protest vote, just that if the Conservative Party can't take such a seat at the moment it does call into question how well they would do in a General Election because in a situation in which a loss of a seat still leaves a safe Labour majority nationally the official opposition in second place in a seat should be able to pick up many more Labour voters than would be be prepared to switch in a General Election, and Labour voters switching to the Liberal Democrats and not voting should also make it easier to take this seat in a by-election.

The South East Staffordshire by-election in 1996 for example saw Labour overturn a large Conservative majority and win quite comfortably.

It's hard to put figures on it, but for the Conservative Party to fail to win a parliamentary by-election yet again where it was held by Labour, while just one result would be indicative that the Conservative Party was still going to struggle to make much progress, to take it at all would show some progress, to take it with a 10,000+ majority would rock the government and be seen by most government ministers as a sign that the Conservative Party were on course for an overall majority.

[Vic Bowman]

It is great news to see such a decisive gap between New Labour and Conservatives but this is largly due to failures by the Government and not because the Tories have been an effective opposition. I believe that this lead will be increased when a large proportion of the country realises that the Car roadtax for quite mediocre cars is to rise to £400 plus!