ConservativeHome's ToryDiary

The return of Ken Clarke?

According to this morning's FT, former Chancellor Ken Clarke is open to returning to the frontbench should the party return to Government after the next General Election.  It's difficult to see David Cameron moving George Osborne, William Hague or David Davis from the top three jobs.  Mr Clarke's views on Europe, Iraq, support for marriage and caution on the West Lothian Question would also upset many Conservatives.  What do ConservativeHome readers think of this story and, if appropriate, what job would you give him?

Carlton Club votes 'yes' to women members

Louise Bagshawe started a lively debate on this topic earlier and ConservativeHome warmly welcomes tonight's decision.  It was right that the Carlton Club freely decided that it wanted to make the change but it made the right choice.  An organisation so closely associated with the Conservative Party should not be excluding women from full membership.  Congratulations, in particular, to Chris Gent and Stanley Kalms for leading the 'yes campaign'.

David Davis seeks stronger regulation of CCTV

Robert H Halfon, writing on CentreRight, recently noted that 90% of Britain's more than four million CCTV systems are not fit for purpose.  David Davis has tonight promised to act against that problem.

The Telegraph reports that the Shadow Home Secretary told the Society of Conservative Lawyers that many CCTV camera systems were endangering civil liberties without being effective enough to combat crime:

"There is no argument for having CCTV which both infringes on our civil liberty but is of such poor quality it does nothing to protect us or provide evidence to bring perpetrators of crime to justice - as happens now. Conservatives would ensure any CCTV has to be maintained at sufficiently high standard to provide evidence admissible in court.  We would also strictly limit access to these images to the police and other relevant agencies until they get to court, and set a mandatory punishment for breaches of these rules that infringe the privacy of the individual."

Nadine Dorries' campaign has already succeeded

Nadine Dorries MP has to wait a few more hours before she'll learn if her fellow MPs will vote for a lower limit on abortion.  Regardless of how MPs vote our belief is that Nadine has already succeeded to a considerable extent.  Her campaign - which has been featured by every major broadcaster and newspaper - has reminded people that the unborn child has humanity.  People can disagree as to the nature of that humanity but more pregnant women know more about the foetus growing inside them because of the re-emergence of the abortion debate.  There are many aspects of America's abortion debate that are unattractive but at least there is a public debate about an enormously important moral issue.

The Telegraph editorialises today that the upper limit is not the real issue and points to a lack of investment in informing women of "the medical and psychological trauma of abortion".  We have sympathy with that view.  More useful than any other reform would be the introduction of 'fully-informed consent'.  Nadine Dorries is herself in favour of that kind of reform and has previously proposed what she called a 'cooling off period':

"Such a cooling-off period is necessary, because the decision to terminate a pregnancy or not is one with which the woman concerned will have to live for the rest of her life. It is imperative that this decision is fully considered, and that all the necessary help and advice is available for her to make an informed decision. This part of the bill is designed to enforce a woman’s right to know.  There is no pressure on a woman to decide either way. The woman does indeed have the right to choose. The cooling-off period gives her this time to reflect on her decision. It is also a time when parents, partners, boyfriends etc will have to stand back and give the woman time to reflect."

Following today's vote we'll be publishing a guide to how every Tory MP voted.

Tories are 14.2% ahead in ConservativeHome's Poll of Polls

An ICM survey for tomorrow's Guardian puts the Conservatives 14% ahead.  Nick Clegg will be pleased at his party's 22% rating.

Here are the Tory leads from the other main pollsters:

• ComRes +17%, 18 May
• YouGov +20%, 17 May
• Populus +11%, 6 May
• Ipsos-MORI +9%, 25 April.

David Cameron has never had a better opportunity to...?

Remember our 'fasten your seatbelts' message of last June?  Eleven months later we are now inviting all passengers to release those belts if they choose...

Over at Coffee House, Peter Hoskin believes that David Cameron's speech earlier today may be his most convincing yet.  We agree.  We'll blog a lot more on this speech later - or first thing tomorrow - but here's one immediate observation for now:

Those of us who are 'hares' worried that the party's excellent opinion poll leads might encourage more caution from Cameron-Osborne on the big challenges facing Britain.  Today provides some early evidence that those fears may be unwarranted.  Rather than relaxing there's more seriousness, more grit and a total lack of complacency.  Long may that continue.

A question for readers: What, at this time of maximum advantage for Cameron, should he do next?  What difficult decision, in particular, would he be wise to make soon?

Now it's David Cameron's turn to say that the easy years are over

Last week Mervyn King told us that the "nice decade" was over.  David Cameron is set to deliver the same message later today in a major speech in Birmingham.  According to reports in the Telegraph, Independent and Daily Mail the Conservative leader will say:

"After a decade of reckless spending under Labour, Britain needs good housekeeping from the Conservatives. We need to start living within our means."

The FT reads David Cameron's words as an echo of "Margaret Thatcher’s homespun 1981 refrain to “live within your means [and] put a nest egg away for a rainy day”."

His speech will have the following main messages:

• Taxpayers "can't take any more pain": "We have reached the limits of acceptable taxation and borrowing" and must now "create the space for cutting tax".
• Economic competitiveness is imperiled by Labour's tax burden: "The economy can't take any more pain without losing jobs to lower tax competitors."
• Conservatives will bring spending under control by tackling three leading causes of rising spending:
  • Social breakdown including family breakdown, unemployment, drug and alcohol addiction;
  • Top-down state monopolies;
  • Waste and bureaucracy.
• Hints of spending priorities: Although Mr Cameron has previously said that the NHS will always be at the front of the spending queue for a Conservative government he will acknowledge particular pressure on "essentials" such as care for the elderly, equipment for the armed forces, prisons and the police.

10.45am: Download PDF of full David Cameron speech - LIVING WITHIN OUR MEANS

1.45pm: Some key quotations from DC's speech:

• The contract between taxpayer and government: "Labour have broken the basic bargain between government and the people, the bargain that says: "We'll take money off you in taxes, and you'll get decent quality services in return.""
• The scale of Labour's waste: "It's clear that we now have in power in this country a bunch of Labour politicians who are just shockingly casual about public money and how it's spent. £20 billion wasted on an NHS computer that still isn't working properly. £2.3 billion spent refurbishing the offices of MOD civil servants. And in one year alone nearly £2 billion of tax credits lost due to fraud and error."
• Good public services aren't cheap: "We understand that you can't get decent quality on the cheap. We will give public services the proper funding they need so that everyone in the country can have access to the services they need. As I've said before: no ifs, no buts, no opt-outs."
• Sustainable low taxation in the long-term: "We are the party of low taxes for the long term, not tax cut promises for the short term."
• David Cameron - ditching the approach of the James's Report - then set out an alternative three-pronged approach to cutting the size of the state:

1. Reducing the demand for government: "The first way in which we will control public spending is to reduce the long-term demands on the state. We need to tackle the causes of the social problems that give rise to public spending in areas like welfare and crime. That means taking forward the work that began with Iain Duncan Smith's magnificent Policy Group report, Breakthrough Britain."
2. Ensuring that the public services make better use of taxpayers' money: "The second way in which we will control public spending is by carrying out the work that was the great missed opportunity of the Blair and Brown years - proper public service reform. Unlike the Labour Party, there is no internal feud or ideological war preventing us from carrying out the reforms that everyone knows are needed."
3. The need for a more businesslike Whitehall: "The third component of our strategy is cut out waste and make government more efficient. That is one of the principal responsibilities of Francis Maude and his implementation team. This is a really significant commitment for us... Francis and his team will be looking at government efficiency right across the board: procurement, staffing, structures - everything you would expect from a modern, professional and businesslike operation."

• Concluding soundbite: "It used to be said that "good food costs less at Sainsbury's." Well I want good services to cost less with the Conservatives."

Clegg ready to back minority Tory government from day one

"In consultations with senior members of the party, he said he was prepared to take the necessary steps that would enable the Tories to form a minority administration.

Mr Clegg ruled out taking a Cabinet seat in a Conservative government in return for his support and instead would provide Mr Cameron with "supply and confidence" – meaning he would promise to back a Conservative Budget and would side with the Tories in any votes of confidence.

As a result, Mr Cameron would be free to accept the post of Prime Minister from the Queen on the day after the next general election, even if he failed to win an outright majority."

Read more in The Telegraph.

Embryology Bill is wrong to devalue fatherhood

One of the most controversial elements of the Embryology Bill is the ending of a requirement for test tube babies to have a registered mother and father.

A YouGov survey for the Centre for Social Justice finds overwhelming support for the idea that fathers shouldn't be written out of the law.  See Mail on Sunday report.

YouGov found that eight out of 10 people believe a child has a right to two parents and that six out of 10 believe that a child should have male and female parents.

Iain Duncan Smith said:

“This move by Gordon Brown has huge symbolic significance. It will not make any practical difference to lesbian and gay couples, but if passed it will send a dismissive message about the family and about the importance of fathers in the upbringing of children. We should be including fathers in; not including them out.”

Other poll findings:

• 61% believed that it was very important or fairly important for children to know the identity of their biological parents. Only 10% said it was not important at all.
• 79% said that there should NOT be an absolute right enshrined in law for everyone to have an IVF child if they wish.
• Only 24% thought that the law should recognise the partner in a same-sex couple who has a child through assisted reproductive treatment in the same way as a biological parent.

The video below from Passion for Life makes the case that 'it takes balls to be a father':

Triple whammy poll blow for Brown

Last night we noted a YouGov survey for The Sunday Times giving the Conservatives a 20% national opinion poll lead.

Over on the Seats and candidates page we blog an ICM poll that puts the Tories 8% ahead in Crewe and Nantwich.  It also shows that voters are unpersuaded by the 10p tax u-turn.

A third poll - for The Independent on Sunday - confirms Brown's bleak position.  The Tories are 17% ahead across Britain - with Labour flat on 26%.

57% told ComRes that Labour must change its leader to have any chance of winning the next election.

There's also a 'work-to-do' message for David Cameron.  46% think the Tory leader has what it takes to be a good Prime Minister.  42% disagree.

Conservatives 20% ahead

Not quite 26% but a YouGov survey for The Sunday Times has the Conservatives on 45%, Labour on 25% and the LibDems on 18%.

Voters have given a thumbs down to the £2.7bn U-turn: "Just 23% think the £2.7 billion giveaway was the product of a government strong enough to admit its errors. While 36% say the tax move was sensible and necessary, 47% say it was a cynical ploy ahead of the by-election."

8.50pm: ICM/ News of the World poll on Crewe voting intentions now online.  (Tories lead by 8%).

Boris: 'Where is Her Majesty?'

While Red Ken was in charge we know that City Hall was stuffed with copies of The Londoner, Morning Star and correspondence with global dictators but Boris Johnson has discovered a striking absence.

City Hall doesn't have a portrait of Her Majesty.

ConservativeHome has learnt that Boris is determined to put that right.

Quite extraordinary that our head of state wasn't honoured in the City Hall of our capital city.

Tories promise to tackle root causes of homelessness with new Foundation

Speaking yesterday at the launch of the Conservative Party's new Homelessness Foundation, at the Crisis charity, David Cameron said: "Homelessness isn't just about literally having no roof over your head.  We're also ignoring what's called the 'hidden homeless'.  That's the people who move from one sofa to another, night after night, with no stability and no security.  And it's the families who are forced to live in crowded conditions in hostels and B&Bs while they wait to be re-housed."  David Cameron's full remarks are here.

The Foundation will look at how public policy might be reshaped to tackle homelessness in all of its forms.  There will be a particular emphasis on the root causes of homelessness.  Grant Shapps, Tory housing spokesman, told ConservativeHome that he had invited all of the leading charities to join the Foundation and all had accepted.  John Bird of The Big Issue (to which Iain Duncan Smith has become a contributor) will be one of the advisors.  Also involved are Thames Reach Bondway, Homeless Link,  Shelter, Crisis (which has Tory origins), the Simon Community and St Mungo's.  It really is a sign of the times that these charities are willing to sign up to a Conservative research organisation.

The Foundation's Advisory Board looks vulnerable to being captured by the big, established charities in our view but Grant insists that smaller groups, following different approaches, like Aquila Way in Gateshead, will also be involved.

David Cameron may not want to campaign on Europe but it'll be a "huge" issue for a Tory government

In E!Sharp, the FT's Philip Stephens writes:

"Press [Cameron] hard on what precisely he means by refusing to let the matter rest and, to put it kindly, he blinks: it's too early to say, let's not speculate. Go on to ask how Europe ranks among his campaigning priorities and the answer is not very high at all. Perhaps 7th or 8th on the list, I have heard him say".

That may be wise politics but The Economist provides a useful reminder that Europe will be "huge" for the Tories once (hopefully) in government.  Reviewing two recent books on Britain's relationship with the EU, The Economist writes:

"The book [by Sir Stephen Wall] makes clear two important things about today's EU.

First, it pervades almost every corner of public policy. New parliamentarians and ministers are often taken aback by how much of their work involves Brussels—and by how little they know of the EU's methods.

Second is the importance of heads of government in the European Council, now the club's dominant policymaking body. That puts its direction in the hands notably of Number Ten, the Elysée in Paris and the federal chancellery in Berlin—which is why direct personal involvement by national leaders counts more than ever."

Hat tip to Open Europe.  Both of these articles were highlighted in their daily email.

Related link: This piece by Jim McConalogue explains why the EU is "huge" for Britain.

Forget climate change, voters want more loose change

The economy has overtaken immigration as voters' top concern.

Tax has overtaken law and order.

Inflation has overtaken the environment.

The findings come from the new opinion tracker of 5,000 voters hosted by PoliticsHome.com and powered by YouGov.

Anthony Wells writes:

"As the economy heads for trouble, there has been a remarkable shift in the public priorities. Issues like the environment have moved down the agenda and people have started worrying about tax and inflation. Less regular trackers from other companies have shown immigration as the big issues for a couple of years now - so to see it knocked off the top spot indicates a major change in public opinion."

More here.  The Tory leadership has recognised the change of mood.  Talk of green taxes hasn't just been dumped; Conservatives are now campaigning against at least one of Labour's planned taxes.

Abraham Maslow predicted all of this in 1943.

Live chatroom for BBC1's Question Time from 10.30pm

Tonight's panel: Health Secretary Alan Johnson, Alan Duncan, Plaid Cymru's spokesperson for health and social services in the Welsh Assembly Helen Mary Jones, broadcaster and journalist Lauren Booth and businessman Simon Woodroffe.

Scottish Tories lead calls for inquiry into last night's violence in Manchester

The ITN video above records how Manchester police were seemingly attacked by angry supporters of Glasgow Rangers.  Murdo Fraser MSP of the Scottish Tories has called for an urgent inquiry:

“Recent CCTV footage, which was not available this morning, shows the situation was far more serious than any of us at first suspected. The attacks on police officers and paramedics are deplorable and have to be condemned without reservation. The perpetrators need to be brought to justice and dealt with by the courts and Rangers Football Club should ban those who have played any part in these despicable acts.  This new footage only serves to underline the need for an urgent inquiry. I am pleased such a measure has now been announced. It may be a minority of Rangers supporters who were involved, but their behaviour is inexcusable and it has heaped shame upon their club and country.”

The violence flared after a big screen - set up for ticketless supporters - failed to work.

Liam Fox is leader of the Right within shadow cabinet

Earlier this week we published the results of our survey of leading 'voices of the parliamentary Right' from outside the frontbench.  John Redwood, then Norman Tebbit, then IDS were the voices most recognised by Tory members.  We also ran a separate question for the frontbench: "Who is the single most effective voice of 'the Right' on the Conservative frontbench, including the shadow cabinet and the House of Lords?"

Unlike with the question for the non-frontbench we asked people to 'write in' answers.  In other words, they didn't have a list to choose from.  94% of the 1,159 people who volunteered an answer identified just three people: Liam Fox, David Davis and William Hague:

The survey shows that 44% of members regard Dr Liam Fox, Shadow Defence Secretary as the most effective voice of the Right on the frontbench.  In many ways Dr Fox fits the popular idea of a 'right-winger'.  He is strongly pro-American and Eurosceptic.   He is pro-marriage and supports a much lower time limit on abortion.  He favours lower taxation and advocated much more patient choice when he was the party's health spokesman.  Like IDS, however, he is also at the forefront of the party's social justice agenda.  The language of 'broken society' agenda was first employed by Dr Fox during his leadership bid.  Writing for ConservativeHome in November 2005, Michael Gove drew parallels with the Fox and Cameron agendas.  Michael Gove's article makes even more interesting reading in retrospect.

The "nice decade" is over

Poor Gordon.  Today was his big relaunch but what does the main evening BBC news bulletin lead with?  Mervyn King's warning that the road ahead - on economic growth, inflation and house prices - is going to be rocky.  Mervyn is right, of course.

Boris Johnson resumes his Telegraph column

The London Evening Standard's Paul Waugh reveals that Boris Johnson will resume his Telegraph column - estimated to be worth £250,000 a year.  He'll donate 10% of this to journalism bursaries and 10% to the teaching of classics in London's state schools.

Boris must have decided he needs the money.  As Mayor he receives £137,000 but that's a lot less than he is used to.  Paul Waugh has already dubbed him 'Four Jobs Johnson' because of this column, his Mayoralty,  and his chairmanship of Transport for London and the Metropolitan Police Authority.

It is, of course, 'Five Jobs Johnson' until he stands down as an MP.  Henley is not, however, on the new list of Tory Associations seeking applications from candidates.   With the LibDems pouring resources into Henley the Tories need to select soon.

Related video: Boris attempts to describe Britishness in this 150 second YouTube for the Equality Commission.

Still governing by proxy

We thought we'd resurrect the above graphic (from last October) to mark Labour's latest attempts to copy Tory policies.  Brown made his draft Queen's Speech statement earlier and David Cameron noticed quite a lot of policy pinching.  During PMQs Brown had accused the Tory leader of being shallow.  Cameron responded: "He can’t really say we haven’t got any substance when he’s taken it all and put it in his Queen’s Speech."

CCHQ has just published a "dirty dozen" of Tory policies that Labour has stolen (but won't implement properly).  See this PDF.

The text of David Cameron's full response to the Queen's Speech is here.

Live PMQs blog from noon

12.42pm: Thanks to PoliticsHome.com here is a YouTube of the main Brown V Cameron exchanges:

Highlights, not verbatim:

12.29pm: Richard Bacon asks the PM to name and shame the nations blocking progress on Burma at the UN.  Brown declines to do so but says that the Government is doing all it can to overcome the blockage.

12.27pm: Greg Hands MP notes that Boris Johnson has got off to a flying start; banning alcohol on the tube, planting 10,000 more trees and reviewing City Hall finances.  Why hasn't Gordon Brown rung him to congratulate the new Mayor?  Brown says he congratulated Boris in the House last week.  Not quite true.  He merely welcomed him to the Commons.

12.25pm: In reply to a planted question from Nigel Griffiths MP, Brown says that voters will never forget that the Conservatives are the party of three million unemployed, 15% interest rates and record home repossessions.  Labour is the party that will intervene to defend the poor, he continues.   

12.22pm: Nicholas Winterton attacks Brown's taxation of motorists, noting that UK drivers are the most taxed in Europe.  The PM quotes Steve Norris back at him and his argument that taxation of cars needs to rise.

Senior Tories promise to vote for lower abortion limit

The Daily Mail lists some of the senior Tories who are backing all-party efforts to reduce the time limit for abortions:

• David Cameron favours a cut to 21 or 22 weeks (from the current 24).
• Chris Grayling favours 20 weeks and told the Mail: "If we are in a position where babies can survive at 23 weeks, then 24 weeks is utterly unacceptable."
• Liam Fox: "I am going to vote for a reduction to 20 weeks. Our laws are much too liberal."  During the Conservative leadership race Dr Fox, a former GP, called for a 12 week limit: "I think that a society that actually aborts 180,000 unborn children every year is a society that needs to be asking a lot of questions about itself… For me it's a simple personal belief. It says, thou shall not kill, it doesn't say, thou shall not kill unless Parliament says it's OK."
• William Hague is going to support a lower limit.
• David Davis also is thought to favour a lower limit.
• Andrew Lansley favours a reduction to 22 weeks but also favours a more liberal regime for earlier abortions: "If a woman needs an abortion, then it must be better for that to be an early and medical abortion, rather than later and surgical."

The campaign for twenty weeks is being led by Nadine Dorries MP.  The campaign's website lists twenty reasons why the abortion limit should be reduced to twenty weeks.

Not all Tories are on Ms Dorries' side of the argument.  On her blog she described how John Bercow described her views as "antediluvian" and "prejudiced".  She also writes this:

"Late surgical abortions mean that a baby is dismembered in the womb, and removed limb by limb, head often last.  Professor Anand, incredibly well respected and acknowledged as the world's leading expert in foetal pain, believes that a foetus feels pain as low as 18 weeks gestation. Before the dismembering takes place, the baby is injected with a lethal injection of Potassium into its heart, via the mother's abdominal wall. I will leave it to you to imagine how much distress and pain this may cause the baby."

ConservativeHome wishes her every success with her campaign and we are proud that most senior Tories are on her side.

"This is a bribe"

The great Eric Pickles has just called from Crewe.  He was out canvassing and the Darling announcement had already reached peoples' ears.  Crewe's verdict: "overwhelmingly negative".  Here are some of the things that were said to Eric:

• This is a bribe.
• This is all being paid for on the never, never. We'll all end up paying even extra in the long run.
• The only thing Brown wants to do is save his neck. He doesn't care about us.
• It's too little, too late.

Labour did the right thing today - but for the wrong reasons.  Gordon Brown still should get punished in Crewe for his tax on the poor - now, partly - but not wholly, reversed.

Darling raises tax allowances to compensate 10p tax victims

Developing >>>

3.49pm: Darling - Individual tax allowance up £600 but (IT SEEMS) for just one year - to £6,035.

3.49pm: Highlights of George Osborne's response:

• "Humiliating" for the Chancellor to have to make the tenth emergency statement since becoming Chancellor
• "Humiliating" to have to introduce a mini-budget to compensate for Gordon Brown's tax con Budget of 2007
• This is less like a considered statement from a Chancellor - more like a cynical press release in the middle of a by-election campaign
• What are the long-term plans to compensate people?  This is just a one-off measure - like the pre-election council tax discount.

3.55pm: Vince Cable welcomes the statement but attacks Darling for not giving him or George Osborne any pre-notification of the announcement.  He asks how many people will NOT be fully compensated by this move and urges the Chancellor to reconsider giving a rebate to people.

3.58pm: Frank Field apologises to the Prime Minister for what he said at the weekend about Mr Brown.

4.05pm CONSERVATIVEHOME'S VERDICT: Cynical?  Yes. Related to the by-election?  Yes.  Forced upon Labour?  Yes.  Even more borrowing?  Yes.  The right thing?  On the face of it, Yes.  As Lord Forsyth advocated some weeks ago: Raising the personal tax allowance was the right response to this issue.  The Tories should have recommended this option weeks ago, too.  We should now press for these higher thresholds to be made permanent.  It is right that as many low income people as possible are taken out of the tax system.

4.30pm: Nick Robinson's take: "Labour MPs are happier than they have been for weeks and the Tories, for the first time in a long time, look wrong footed."

4.43pm: Download PDF of full statement from George Osborne.

4.49pm: Guido welcomes Labour's "unfunded tax cut"!

4.52pm: TaxPayers' Alliance's response: "This 10p saga has been a mess from the beginning and this is a poor attempt to fix it. Large numbers of people on low incomes will still lose out, and even those the Chancellor says will be compensated are simply being given their own money back. It is a sorry state of affairs when taxation is pushing millions of families to the brink and the Government struggles to even make up for its own bad decisions. People urgently need Alistair Darling to make serious reductions in the tax burden, but at the moment he barely seems capable of tinkering around the edges.”

5.30pm: ThreeLineWhip: The Tories should have listened to Forsyth on 10p tax

5.59pm: From George Osborne: "What he didn’t tell us was that 1.1 million low earners on between £6,635 and £13,355 will still be worse off, by up to £112 a year. So the poorest people will still lose out."