Now it's David Cameron's turn to say that the easy years are over

Last week Mervyn King told us that the "nice decade" was over.  David Cameron is set to deliver the same message later today in a major speech in Birmingham.  According to reports in the Telegraph, Independent and Daily Mail the Conservative leader will say:

"After a decade of reckless spending under Labour, Britain needs good housekeeping from the Conservatives. We need to start living within our means."

The FT reads David Cameron's words as an echo of "Margaret Thatcher’s homespun 1981 refrain to “live within your means [and] put a nest egg away for a rainy day”."

His speech will have the following main messages:

• Taxpayers "can't take any more pain": "We have reached the limits of acceptable taxation and borrowing" and must now "create the space for cutting tax".
• Economic competitiveness is imperiled by Labour's tax burden: "The economy can't take any more pain without losing jobs to lower tax competitors."
• Conservatives will bring spending under control by tackling three leading causes of rising spending:
  • Social breakdown including family breakdown, unemployment, drug and alcohol addiction;
  • Top-down state monopolies;
  • Waste and bureaucracy.
• Hints of spending priorities: Although Mr Cameron has previously said that the NHS will always be at the front of the spending queue for a Conservative government he will acknowledge particular pressure on "essentials" such as care for the elderly, equipment for the armed forces, prisons and the police.

10.45am: Download PDF of full David Cameron speech - LIVING WITHIN OUR MEANS

1.45pm: Some key quotations from DC's speech:

• The contract between taxpayer and government: "Labour have broken the basic bargain between government and the people, the bargain that says: "We'll take money off you in taxes, and you'll get decent quality services in return.""
• The scale of Labour's waste: "It's clear that we now have in power in this country a bunch of Labour politicians who are just shockingly casual about public money and how it's spent. £20 billion wasted on an NHS computer that still isn't working properly. £2.3 billion spent refurbishing the offices of MOD civil servants. And in one year alone nearly £2 billion of tax credits lost due to fraud and error."
• Good public services aren't cheap: "We understand that you can't get decent quality on the cheap. We will give public services the proper funding they need so that everyone in the country can have access to the services they need. As I've said before: no ifs, no buts, no opt-outs."
• Sustainable low taxation in the long-term: "We are the party of low taxes for the long term, not tax cut promises for the short term."
• David Cameron - ditching the approach of the James's Report - then set out an alternative three-pronged approach to cutting the size of the state:

1. Reducing the demand for government: "The first way in which we will control public spending is to reduce the long-term demands on the state. We need to tackle the causes of the social problems that give rise to public spending in areas like welfare and crime. That means taking forward the work that began with Iain Duncan Smith's magnificent Policy Group report, Breakthrough Britain."
2. Ensuring that the public services make better use of taxpayers' money: "The second way in which we will control public spending is by carrying out the work that was the great missed opportunity of the Blair and Brown years - proper public service reform. Unlike the Labour Party, there is no internal feud or ideological war preventing us from carrying out the reforms that everyone knows are needed."
3. The need for a more businesslike Whitehall: "The third component of our strategy is cut out waste and make government more efficient. That is one of the principal responsibilities of Francis Maude and his implementation team. This is a really significant commitment for us... Francis and his team will be looking at government efficiency right across the board: procurement, staffing, structures - everything you would expect from a modern, professional and businesslike operation."

• Concluding soundbite: "It used to be said that "good food costs less at Sainsbury's." Well I want good services to cost less with the Conservatives."

Comments

[Bob B]

Do read Robert Preston's blogging today on his interview with Jean-Claude Trichet, president of the European Central Bank. Trichet thinks that the downstream consequences of the credit-crunch aren't nearly over yet:
http://www.bbc.co.uk/blogs/thereporters/robertpeston/2008/05/trichet_beware_the_oil_shock.html

Trichet is saying that if central banks don't continue to curb inflation in the face of rising global energy and food prices then we will have to cope with the entrenched high levels of unemployment and inflation that followed the oil price hikes of 1973/4. Evidently, he wasn't persuaded by John Redwood on: Can you have an independent central bank in a democray?
http://www.johnredwoodsdiary.com/

[Alex Swanson]

If I'm not mistaken, this is stuff which some of us have been saying for years and have continually been told is too "extreme".

I wonder when any other "extreme" stuff is going to suddenly become orthodoxy.

[The Silent Majority]

Message from The Silent Majority

Mervyn King actually said "The NICE decade is over". It's an acronym meaning Non Inflationary Credit Expansion".

""After a decade of reckless spending under Labour, Britain needs good housekeeping from the Conservatives. We need to start living within our means."

The Silent Majority hears what Cameron has to say but he is simply wrong!

The worldwide credit crisis is rooted in Reagonomics. A belief that deregulated markets manage themselves... they don't!

Business and individuals have simply overstretched themselves due to cheap credit that has over inflated prices.

The Silent Majority understands what Credit Default Swaps and Monoline Insurance is! Readers of this should investigate if you want to understand the current economic crisis.

The Silent Majority predicts that 10 - 20 major British firms will collapse this year due to being highly indebted (leveraged loans).

Financiers have spent the last 20 years building a house of cards and it is falling down.

The Silent Majority knows the truth.

They are all the same. The Silent Majority is voting for none of the above!

[James, Swadlincote]

Good Lord, that last bit actually sounds conservative! Armed Forces, NHS, Elderly and Police!

Kidding aside, good luck Mr Cameron on your speech today. I'm sure somebody from your office reads this site if you don't browse it occassionally yourself...

[Tony Makara]

Bob B, Trichet is right to put the emphasis on price stability and doing that now will save us from needing to make a more severe correction further down the line. George Soros has also been saying that things could get far worse, those who believe the credit-crunch is going to be cured by artificially induced liquidity are laying the ground for inflation. Cutting rates to make credit easier is going to weaken currencies, pushing the soaring cost of imports up even higher. Mervyn King and Jean-Claude Trichet are right in resisting calls to cut rates, if only Bernanke had been more sensible, but Mr Bernanke plays to the gallery I'm afraid.

[Letters From A Tory]

Cameron is becoming very adept at pinpointing Labour's weaknesses, even when using fairly moderate language, and is beginning to build a strong opposition to the Labour Party and also the way the Labour are running the country.

[Saltmaker]

NICE... It's an acronym meaning Non Inflationary Credit Expansion.

Yes, and as those who listen to R4's News Quiz will know, we're now heading for the Shrinking High Inflation Turbulence decade.

[Bob B]

"A belief that deregulated markets manage themselves... they don't!"

Exactly - but try the very balanced analysis of the banking crisis in a leader in Saturday's The Economist:
http://www.economist.com/opinion/displayStory.cfm?Story_ID=11376185

It's worth dwelling on the last line for a moment: "After 20 years of growth, the flaws of modern finance are painfully clear. Do not forget its strengths."

[ChrisD]

"he will acknowledge particular pressure on "essentials" such as care for the elderly, equipment for the armed forces, prisons and the police."

I would class those groups as most in need of some help if finances are tight, I would also add that they seem to have suffered particularly badly from under investment by this government in the last 11 years.

[Man in a Shed]

David Cameron is now reaching for the political weapons to finish of the deranged socialist beast that has been occupying our government.

[ChrisD]

What an incredible contrast with Gordon Brown's performance as PM in these tough economic times. Cameron was confident, tough and honest, he is treating the electorate as grown ups!

[Bob B]

Cameron's speech is certainly timely. He greatly needs to manage expectations because there's little doubt that public spending spluges can be hugely popular in many places which don't provide the wherewithal.

Consider what's reported in this BBC Newsnight clip about London - The Great Divide:
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/uk/7368326.stm

Last year, Londoners paid £19 billion more in taxes than they got back from the state while the rest of Britain hoovered up £51 billions.

London taxpayers are bankrolling public spending in the rest of Britain.

[Patriot]

At last, a solid, "good housekeeping", Conservative message that many will have been waiting to hear for a long time. There is what seems to me to be a very positive article about this in this morning's Guardian. Reading it took me back to Margaret Thatcher's first win after the last disasterous Labour years - the current situation, the message, the quotes from Margaret Thatcher, the similarities are striking. Just a shame we have to wait another 2 years.

http://www.guardian.co.uk/politics/2008/may/19/conservatives.davidcameron

Great news.

[Alan S]

Cameron is dumping the greenery and focusing on the basic purpose of a Conservative government.

Good, good, good!

[Tony Makara]

Hopefully there will be a promise to significantly cut the tax burden on business. We need to let people make profits so they can invest and expand, creating more jobs leading to more people spending and more wealth for our country. Conservative politicians never go far enough in reducing the tax burden for business.

[Libertarian]

"After years of reckless spending by Labour"

During the last few years, Cameron and Osborne pledged to INCREASE SPENDING in real terms, i.e. "share the proceeds of growth". Is that reckless policy to be abandoned? Will Cameron and Osborne apologise for it?

[LetwinCon]

How econo-centric.

[The Silent Majority]

Message from The Silent Majority

Dave Camerons commitment to good houskeeping has been noted by The Silent Majority.

Why then do so many of his colleagues have their snouts in the trough:

Tory David Sumberg—dubbed Britain’s laziest MEP for making just two speeches in the chamber since 2004—admits paying wife Carolyn almost as much as he earns himself!

He gives her up to £60,000 a year for her services as a “secretary/assistant”.

But our records show in 2002 there were payments of £7,922.22 a month in her name. That’s £95,066.64 a year.

His own website boasts she is also a mature student and has another income as a freelance translator…

Moustachioed top Tory Roger Helmer is another MEP filling his boots. He has set himself up as a champion for openness and transparency in Brussels. But in an unguarded moment he bragged to our reporter of his plans to exploit the crazy expenses system for thousands more—by tweaking the way his home address is listed.

The idea is to make his home in Ashby Magna, Leics, appear at least 1,000 kilometres from Strasbourg— which under crazy Euro allowance rules will net him an extra £135 every time he flies there—£1,620 a year."

The Silent Majority thinks that if Dave Cameron can't manage his own party then how on earth can he manage the country.

The Silent Majority speaks the truth.

The Silent Majority is voting for none of the above.

Yours
ever vigilant
The Silent Majority

[Henry Cook]

And lo, the detox was complete and the mighty Cam finally preached a message of 'sound money' delighting his faithful audience. Our supreme mother Maggie will be proud. Fantastic news.

[Malcolm Dumb]

Living within our means. What no 40 million pound fortune to inherit. LOL.

[Richard]

"The worldwide credit crisis is rooted in Reagonomics. A belief that deregulated markets manage themselves... they don't!"

Since when were central banks given special powers by governments to bail out commercial banks that partake in reckless lending "free market"? If we had a genuinely free market banking system with the central banks shut down then commercial banks would think twice before spraying credit at dodgy investments. What we currently have is a form of banking central planning which pure free market economists have always argued against.

[Richard]

"The Silent Majority is voting for none of the above."

Actually I think you'll find that the majority of the electorate do vote in elections and at least 50% + 1 will probably vote in the next one. So kindly dispose of your stupid nametag and stop pretending that you are in some way representative of the majority of the country.

[The Silent Majority]

Message from THe Silent Majority

@ Richard.

There was a 45% turnout in the London Mayoral election. The Apathy Party polled 55% and I would like to thank The Silent Majority for their continued support.

4 out of ever 5 London voters did not support Boris Johnson. The Silent Majority wonders why Conservatives delude themselves into thinking they had an overwhelming victory.

The Silent Majority is watching Mayor Boris' snout in the trough as he continues to trouser his MPs salary + expenses.

Oink Oink

The Sile Majority is watching very carefully.

Yours

The Silent Majority

[Buckinghamshire Tory]

It is about time that David Cameron proclaimed what we have known for a very long time. I especially like his take on social breakdown, family breakdown, unemployment, drug and alcohol addiction. That will be just as important as any cuts in tax and spending.
That does not mean that we can afford to retain the current level of public spending.

[Buckinghamshire Tory]

Now I am off to Crewe & Nantwich!

[Richard]

"There was a 45% turnout in the London Mayoral election."

Turnout is always down in the local elections but has always been above 50% in general elections since WWII and before. Those are the ones that matter and those are the ones that the majority of the people in this country vote in.

"4 out of ever 5 London voters did not support Boris Johnson. The Silent Majority wonders why Conservatives delude themselves into thinking they had an overwhelming victory."

Because he got more votes than the other person on a higher-than-expected turnout and all the non-voters didn't count!. Surprisingly enough, when people don't vote they don't get a say and it is voters who decide elections. Labour won the last general election with the support of around 20% of the population but the other 80% aren't rising up in revolution.

[christina Speight]

He's edging towards sanity but still talks of "sharing the benefits of growth". What is needed NOW is a massive cut in government expenditure not - as that implies - continued growth in the state's expenditure at a lower level.

Cut the ID cards, cut the rest of the NHS computer shambles, cut quango after quango (see today's brilliant TPA report), and spend a part of that on proper defence and proper policing and proper prisons.

Inside the defence budget stop buying expensive 'toys' for wars which are unlikely (and cut the super-lynx helicopter which at vast expense will be ready in 2014 when for a quarter of the price we could buy better machines off the shelf NOW from the US)

This is tinkering stuff from Cameron. I'd hoped for something better.

[Eleanor McHugh]

I'd be happy to live within my means if swingeing government incompetence and high taxation left me with any in the first place.

I wonder just how many others amongst Britain's professionals have been hovering on the brink of bankruptcy in recent years to fund first Blair's follies and now Brown's Year Zero...

[Norm Brainer]

I like the sainsbury's comparison - I've always thought they are like the conservatives should be.
Yes, waitrose may be better quality, but it's not always worth the expense and the choice isn't as good.
ASDA may be cheaper but it's a false economy as their own brand will ALWAYS dissapoint and the whole shopping experience is inhumane.

[Londoner]

As well as not being the "majority", Silent Majority does not seem very silent either. I will not bother to quote Atlee on Harold Laskey as I am sure everyone here knows the quote.

This Cameron speech is very welcome. It is a shift in emphasis in response to both events and the time being ripe. It shows a deft political touch that is not to be underestimated.

Your report is also a great deal better in its emphasis than today's main headline in the Daily Telegraph which says he is "pledging to ease the tax burden on families". Which, being such a partial snapshot, left me wondering as I picked the paper off the mat about the burdens on public borrowing and business, and why single people, poor pensioners etc were to be equally ignored as they were to the Government's cost in the 10p row. If there is any scope for reducing the tax burden, it should in my view concentrate on the poor and on tax competitiveness of business to stop it going abroad. The latter indirectly helps all of us who are better off and is more needed than cuts in income tax all the way up - more, dare I say it, than giving every base rate tax payer, which includes those earning up to about £43,000 a year, a cut of £120 as the Government has just done.

[Oberon]

This is the kind of thing I was asking for a couple of weeks ago on the Platform piece.

Brown was saying that he wanted to see the substance and have the debate. Being it on.

[Oberon]

This is the kind of thing I was asking for a couple of weeks ago on the Platform piece.

Brown was saying that he wanted to see the substance and have the debate. Bring it on.

[Local, and on the A-List]

""After years of reckless spending by Labour"

During the last few years, Cameron and Osborne pledged to INCREASE SPENDING in real terms, i.e. "share the proceeds of growth". Is that reckless policy to be abandoned? Will Cameron and Osborne apologise for it?"

Has any Government ever cut spending in real terms?

[James H]

Silent Majority,

Instead of harping on from the sidelines in your painfully contrived tone of morally pure omniscience, why don't you and your apathetic chums actually suggest something constructive.

Heck, you guys could even form a party that has all the answers, then we'd all vote for you.

If you're so clever to have the answers, and so morally superior to be able to implement them and only them, then get on with it.

In the mean time: shut up.

yours,

James H

[Dave B]

Love the speech. Really looking forward to the next conservative government.

[Richard]

Silent Majority is probably about 5.

As for cutting spending on waste and bureaucracy, can we have some more concrete details? The TPA have documented billions of this, will the Tories analyse their findings and be prepared to make billions of pounds worth of cuts?

[David Sergeant]

I do like the soundbite "Labour spent like there was no tomorrow, the trouble is there is a tomorrow and it has to be paid for."

[clive elliot]

Not a single reference to this keynote speech on BBC 10pm news!