8.41pm: Ten of the verbatims that we received in response to our monthly survey asking for observations about the elections:
- "We have plenty of candidates. It was not difficult to get people tostand"
- "I'm in Islington London and have only heard from the Lib Dems for GLA - and Boris!"
- "Won't make any difference who wins. Tory Councillors are Trots around here. Council Tax will keep going up."
- "We have Boris standing for Mayor. He likes women. We're hunting Paddick. He likes men. And we're hunting Livingstone. He likes mad people from South America."
- "We are endeavouring to win Reading back from Labour who have had 'control' for 25 years.Their Labour MP,(Salter) is a duplicitous character and has demonstrated unreliability several times. I have written about his failings regularly in the local Press and had much support for exposing him and his coterie of useless Labour Councillors. Our candidate is an excellent chap who has been regularly working hard and last weekend there were 40 'helpers' doing canvassing and delivering leaflets."
- "Lots of people saying voting Conservative for first time in their life."
- "WE are attacking Labour Heartland of Crewe and hope to take at least one of the four seats off them. Nantwich is in the hands of Independents who are just old labour masquerading as Independents."
- "In the Derby City election we have had the help of the Sikh population for the first time following several defections from Labour to us including a prominent Cabinet member and another councillor."
- "In Worcester City the BNP are fielding more candidates than the Lib Dems!"
- "Here in Gibraltar we have a whole different election cycle and no local elections. I'm helping some UK local candidates by phoning voters and also Boris the same way but can't obviously pound pavements. This is the third election where I have been really proactive on blogs and opinion-influencing websites and I think that is a big way to make a difference. It will become bigger."
Will add more such comments later.
8.13pm: Stop press!! Ken Livingstone was a young Conservative!!! Enough exclamation marks. Hurry up Harry has the story.
7.01pm: How low did Ken Livingstone's supporters go? That'll be one of the questions
we'll need to ask after all this is over. Look at this extract from a
leaflet sent out by the 'British Muslim Initiative':
In case you can't read it, it states:
"What if you don't go out and vote for Ken?
The BNP urged its supporters to cast a second preference vote for Boris Johnson. If the BNP or other right wing candidates get elected, they would generate a climate of fear and hatred, threatening the city's community cohesion."
Really low stuff. Here is a pdf of the leaflet put out by Team Boris to win Muslim voters for Boris.
6.34pm: Why rely on one expert when you can have one hundred? Further to our 3.35pm note, PoliticsHome has now posted the full expectations for tonight's results - as stated by 100 Westminster insiders. In summary:
> The Tories will have a champagne evening if Boris wins the Mayoralty, we gain 100 to 200 council seats and we achieve a 42% national share of the vote.
5.30pm: BBC reporting cases in London of polling station staff apparently inadvertently invalidating ballot papers
4.37pm: This was Trafalgar Square at just before 3pm today:
The Square was full of communist groups celebrating May Day.
4.19pm: OK! magazine's coverage of the local elections.
3.45pm: These photos show how Labour in Harlow (where Samuel has been campaigning today) is in the past in every way: On the left is a photo of six or seven people in Labour HQ using the old fashioned method of taking telling slips, crossing out pieces of paper, ripping off slips etc. On the right (and down the corridor) is Peter Ould on his Blue-Chipped laptop doing about ten times the work.
3.44pm: Wat Tyler and Mrs T voted in Surrey and in London.
3.35pm: Nice graphic on what the parties need to achieve - it comes from Martin Bright's latest column for the New Statesman. The key thresholds for the party (in terms of council seats) are: Tories must gain at least 100 seats to have a good night; Labour shouldn't lose seats (unlikely) and the LibDems need 100 gains (which isn't going to happen). Click on the graphic to double its size:The graphic represents the collective wisdom of the Westminster insiders who are polled on a daily basis by PoliticsHome.com. Tune in to the site tonight. Its best product will be rush transcripts of what key pundits and politicians are saying on the TV and radio tonight.
3.13pm: Just noticed this on UK Polling Report re voting intentions for the Greater London Assembly:
"Voting intention in the assembly stands at CON 40%, LAB 33%, LDEM 14%. Others include the Greens on 4%, BNP on 3%, UKIP 2%, Christian Choice 1%, Left List 1%, Respect 1%, Abolish the Congestion Charge 1%."
Guido, Iain Dale (who is also live blogging already) and, of course, YouGov are predicting a Boris win. ConservativeHome joins that chorus. Despite the numbers above we also expect the BNP to get a seat on the GLA. We'll soon know...
2.15pm: Ryan Robson has written a short piece for the LondonMayor section about campaigning for Boris.
12.35pm: When can you expect local council results? Here's a rough guide:
- By midnight or soon afterwards results should be in from: Vale of Glamorgan, Brentwood, Broxbourne, Eastleigh, Havant, Kingston upon Hull, Lincoln, Nuneaton & Bedworth, Peterborough, South Tyneside, Tameside, Tamworth, West Lindsey and Worcester City.
- Half an hour later: Barnsley, Bolton, Carlisle City, Great Yarmouth, Hart, Knowsley, Mole Valley, Monmouthshire, Sefton, Southend, Swindon, Tunbridge Wells and Wirral.
- Fifty or so more results by 2am.
12.11pm: YouGov's final poll has just been published and has Boris Johnson ahead by 6% on second preferences.
YouGov and the London Evening Standard will want a Boris win almost as much as Boris himself. Both will have their standing enhanced if Livingstone is ousted.
11:49am: Let's begin with a message from David Cameron, on why we should vote Conservative:
Yes, good luck to all Conservative local council candidates today.
Tory local councils are certainly dedicated to delivering good old-fashioned vfm even if the national leadership has bought into the new labour big-spend approach.
Posted by: Chad Noble | May 01, 2008 at 12:06
Ok I've voted.
My first choice was the Christian Alliance candidate. I know he won't win but I have to make a stand for christianity,
But don't worry i put Ken down as the 2nd choice to make sure he only comes in second place.
A lot of my friends have done the same.
Posted by: Barbara Jones | May 01, 2008 at 12:11
"YouGov and the London Evening Standard will want a Boris win almost as much as Boris himself. Both will have their standing enhanced if Livingstone is ousted."
Tim, the Sun will want that outcome as well. Don't forget, they have their reputation for predicting polls accurately to lose ;)
Posted by: Will Stobart | May 01, 2008 at 12:31
Boris has the pledges so lets all make a big effort to get out the vote today.
Remember a vote for Ken is a vote for Brown. Good luck to Boris and all Conservative candidates in todays elections
Posted by: Joe Mooney | May 01, 2008 at 12:37
Also Good Luck to Boffo and all the other candidates, I am driving up after work to help out with getting the vote out in my former homeland.
Posted by: Bexie | May 01, 2008 at 13:15
Working in a busy Constituency Office in North London. Early telling results coming in:
Meltdown in the Labour vote so far up here! All our supporters are turning out. Busy polling stations.
Posted by: Douglas X | May 01, 2008 at 13:41
Not only did I get out to vote early, I had the added bonus of a chance to give a woman from the 'Respect' party some instruction in Anglo-Saxon.
Posted by: Tim H | May 01, 2008 at 13:49
Last night I was in a gay pub in the East End. At a very early stage a quick ask-round returned a 5 out of 5 canvas return for Boris, which is encouraging to say the least!
Posted by: James | May 01, 2008 at 13:52
I'm down at uni in Exeter and trying my best to locate my polling station. The leftie council seems to have been trying to sabotage my vote by not delivering me a polling card so I'm not even sure if I've been registered. On top of all that, the City Council website gives no indication of where the polling stations are so it looks as though I'm on my own. I hate not exercising my right to vote but it looks as though I may be doing so by default today...
Still, I have at least been able to vote by post in my home town in Essex.
Posted by: chrisblore | May 01, 2008 at 14:05
As much as I dislike the Conservative Party and what is now stands for, anything beats the Socialists and the Lib Dems. Best of luck to all the candidates.
Ill be watching the election coverage tonight and hoping for Tory gains. First election night for a while given there wasnt one last night because counting was delayed to the next day, as I understand London and Wales will be this year. If counting has to be delayed till the next day, then the system is already far too complicated.
Posted by: James Maskell | May 01, 2008 at 14:16
I don't think we'll necessarily be losing Coventry...
Posted by: Edison Smith | May 01, 2008 at 14:16
To the post above... you can only vote in one district anyway can't you? so what is the fuss about not being able to vote in Exeter aswell? I sent my postal vote for Boris off a week ago, sadly my family will all vote for Ken.
Posted by: BexleyTory | May 01, 2008 at 14:19
I'll be on the GOTV trail in Finchley tonight. The association there seem to be doing a great job- Labour haven't put anyone on polling stations.
Good luck to my friends running for re-election in NE Lincs too. Let's hope we can overtake the Liberals and become the largest party!
Posted by: Cleethorpes Rock | May 01, 2008 at 14:24
BexleyTory, as far as I understand it, you are entitled to vote in any area where you have a house. As I rent a house in Exeter, I am also entitled to vote here and did last year.
On another note, Labour's election literature seemed to be largely based on telling us how the council is getting a raw deal from government funding. They're not exactly the sharpest tools in the box, these Labour councillors!
Posted by: chrisblore | May 01, 2008 at 14:26
I mean there wasnt one last *year*. It doesnt feel like a year ago. Scary how time goes by.
Posted by: James maskell | May 01, 2008 at 14:28
Here in a target ward in Salford turnout is broadly similar to last year when we gained the seat comfortably. Weather has turned out okay despite an abysmal forecast. Sun is out now but would expect some rain later on. I'll be posting regular updates from Salford on www.iainlindley.co.uk but don't expect anything too exciting until the count. :)
Posted by: Iain Lindley | May 01, 2008 at 14:29
Sadly I have to work today and won't get home until quite late this evening so won't be able to help tday.The very best of luck o all Conservtive candidates.
Posted by: Malcolm Dunn | May 01, 2008 at 14:41
Will be watching the results closely here from the USA. Sadly, Redbridge Council messed up my postal vote so I can't contribute depite being a London Council Tax payer, but c'est la vie. Good luck to ALL Tory candidates - especially Boris. London has suffered for too long under the socialist yoke of Rred Ken!!!! To all activists - GET THE VOTE OUT!!!! C'mon you blues!
Posted by: Jon White | May 01, 2008 at 14:46
Christopher Blore
It seems to be a common misconception among students that they are entitled to vote twice, once at "home" and again in their university town. This cannot be legal - it undermines the principle of "one person one vote". I've often thought that we should be pressing the Electoral Commission for this to be corrected. How many seats are going to the Lib -Dems, in particular, because of this illicit double voting?
Posted by: Martin Wright | May 01, 2008 at 15:12
Martin Wright - I think that LEGALLY you are correct. However, I put the ethical question like this - if you are paying Council Tax in two (or more) places, why should you not be allowed to have a say in how that money is spent in EACH of those places? We are voting here for local representation, funded (at least in part) by revenues generated from those who own property in that locality.
Now of course, this applies to few students. However, in principal, I feel that in this situation it should not be 'OMOV' but rather a vote per property on which you fund the respective council.
Posted by: Jon White | May 01, 2008 at 15:20
Editor: I think you are right about Boris winning and (sadly) the BNP winning.
Posted by: Alan S | May 01, 2008 at 15:25
No, guys, look - you can vote once in one election. Each local authority holds separate elections to other local authorities. You can't vote more than once in a specific local authority election. You can however vote once in local authority election A and vote as well once in local authority election B.
At a general election there is only one election going on - to the Commons. At a European election there is only one election going on - the the European Parliament. But at local elections - note the plural - there is more than one election going on. You can vote in as many elections as you are registered in areas which are holding them.
Posted by: David Jones | May 01, 2008 at 15:27
The law regarding student voting is that you can vote twice so long as it is not for the same assembly i.e. you cannot vote in two constituencies at a general election, but you can vote in two different wards as long as they are for two different councils. Obviously, most students need to sort out a postal vote to be able to vote twice.
Posted by: NorthernEconomist | May 01, 2008 at 15:27
Interesting suggestion - or should that read implication (Jon White) That only those who own the property and pay council tax should have a vote. Now that would concentrate the mind wouldn't it... The problem we have in local elections is that there is no connect between people's vote and their pockets. If there was the outcomes would be very different.
After all the Americans fought on the ground of no taxation without representation. Surely the quid pro quo should be no representation without taxation.... HeHeHe
Posted by: Stewart Geddes | May 01, 2008 at 15:28
Good Luck to Boris and all the assembly candidates. Voting seems to be brisk in my part of outer London.
Given all the stories about electoral fraud etc, I am very concerned about the flimsy cardboard ballot boxes -very easily tampered with, no seals etc. And then there is the long delay before counting begins.
What are the security arrangements? I'm probably being paranoid but I wouldn't trust Livingstone as far as I can throw him.
Posted by: Martin Wright | May 01, 2008 at 15:35
Stewart Geddes - well it would concentrate the mind wouldn't it! Why shouldn't you vote for high spending councils if you as the voter don't have to fund that spending? "I'll vote for Ken because it ain't ME whose paying for his ludicrous schemes, but the other poor bugger!" It's similar to the almost universal view that those who earn more should pay more - but naturally NEARLY everyone feels that it's those who earn more than THEY do!
At least Lady T's hated Poll Tax did ensure that everyone who benefited from local governement had to pay towards it. Sadly, it was sold pitifully to the public and hence the revolt against it. Much as I hate to endorse a Lib Dem idea, the notion of local income tax - so that everyone still pays, but relative to their income, always struck me as fairer than just property owners paying.
Posted by: Jon White | May 01, 2008 at 15:37
The Community Charge had a lot of positive points going for it. As you say (Jon White) it was sold pitifully (Wasn't that Michael Portillo???). If the system had properly recognised (i.e. exempted) those unable to pay due to unemployment or studies, we could well have still had it. That allied to the perception that We Scots were being used as Guinea Pigs dealt the idea a fatal blow.
Posted by: Stewart Geddes | May 01, 2008 at 15:41
My concern about double voting was more addressed to General Elections. Slightly off topic today but a thought for the future. Very often I've heard students boasting that they help the Lib Dems win some University town while voting at home as well.
Posted by: Martin Wright | May 01, 2008 at 15:46
Stewart Geddes - the Community Charge did have some provision to help those not able to pay, but not nearly enough. Nor were these provisions highlighted nearly enough to the general public. (I think that it was Portillo who sold it so badly, but I'm not sure). It wasn't a perfect answer, but it did at least create a link between who you vote for and how much electing that person will cost you.
I feel that the Scottish issue is a red herring! The whole country had the charge, and it wasn't until it went country wide that we saw the riots.
I honestly don't know what the answer is, but I repeat that the current system - which is really just the old 'rates' that the Community Charge replaced - is markedly unfair. The general principle in the UK (though there are some exceptions) that we pay tax relative to our income levels, not our assetts. (and on spending of course). Council Tax differs from this principle. My mother, for example, has very low income but owns a property. She has to pay tax on that PROPERTY, not her income. This seems patently unjust to me, and it's a situation that many pensioners find themselves in.
Likewise, one can have a high income, but live in a small (and presumably less valuable) property. Thus, realtive to your income in that situation, you gain in terms of what you have to pay for your local services.
I can't think of a fairer system than local income tax.
Posted by: Jon White | May 01, 2008 at 15:52
Tim & Sam: Are the powers that be placing restrictions on you tonight when you blog from inside CCHQ?
Posted by: Sammy Finn | May 01, 2008 at 15:54
It may be a coincidence but the amount raised in VAT is broadly the same as the total Local Authority expenditure. Why not scrap the council tax and vat and allow local authorities to set their own local sales tax (or any other tax they care to set). Thus you would have local acountability and responsibility. Set the tax too high and everyone gets in their cars to the neighbouring authority. Set it too low and you don't raise enough or you get overwhelmed by people coming into your area.
Locals then get a direct link between their vote and their council expenditure. If a local authority then wants to levy a property tax, so be it. Or a hotel Tax (Blackpool) go ahead, but you have to live with the consequences.
Posted by: Stewart Geddes | May 01, 2008 at 15:58
On a completely different issue, IF the BNP does win a seat tonight I will be very sad. I have no time for any racists. Not only is racism immoral, is also patently dumb.
However, if they do, it may focus the minds of the major parties, and also the Lib Dems, on why horrible people like this are gaining votes, and go about addressing those issues.
Perhaps some positives could come from what would no doubt be a horrible stain on London.
Posted by: Jon White | May 01, 2008 at 16:02
The YouGov figures for the minor parties in the Assembly seem incredible e.g Greens only 2%.Many people understand that a vote for the two major parties in the London-wide party ballot probably will not result in any extra seats for their own party. Therefore they often use it as a way of tweaking their message to the Mayor by voting for a minor party.
Posted by: Martin Wright | May 01, 2008 at 16:08
Stewart Geddes - an interesting idea, but sales tax is by definition regressive. Yes, I agree that it gives freedom of choice - I choose to smoke and therefore elect to pay the duty on my cigarettes to the Exchequer. But, because I am reasonably paid that choice for me is less onerous than someone who earns minimum wage.
Local income tax means that those who earn most pay most.
Posted by: Jon White | May 01, 2008 at 16:09
greetings from chingford in NE London. Trying not to get too excited. The canvass we're working off is an under estimate of Tory support. We've knocked up seven streets this afternoon and have met only two "against". More importNtly the determination of Tories to vote is stronger than I've ever seen. Good luck everyone- big shout ( as the kids say ) to the Harlow crew!
Posted by: graeme archer | May 01, 2008 at 16:42
Just checked my hotmail email account and was pointed towards an interesting analysis of web searches on msn for each candidate over the past thirty days. Boris got 54% of all London mayoral searches, Ken 32%, Paddick 12% and Berry 2%.
It doesn't technically mean anything but interesting nevertheless.
Good luck to all our Tory candidates.
Posted by: JD | May 01, 2008 at 16:52
Blue Chip?
Its Merlin :p
Posted by: Mark | May 01, 2008 at 16:56
A story in The Times is saying that turnout could go as high as 50% if early voting patterns are representative.
Posted by: Charles Hall | May 01, 2008 at 17:08
That would be awesome, Charles. If we can get a high turnout on a pro-Conservative vote it would make any gains even sweeter.
Posted by: Will Stobart | May 01, 2008 at 17:18
@Jon White
Income tax is taken before you've eaten. It has no idea if the 'tax' portion of your income was disposable income, or eating money. 'Allowances', attempt to guesstimate what is, and is not disposable income, but it's a guess.
A sales or consumption tax doesn't have that problem. Using VAT as an example, vegetables and commodity foodstuffs are zero rated, as are children's clothes, books no doubt other items too. (personally I think electricity/water/gas should also be exempt).
The idea is, you're allowed to keep body and soul together BEFORE the state takes their share.
Posted by: Dave B | May 01, 2008 at 17:21
The Lib Dems in Kingston (one of their key areas) abandoned telling and knocking up and have moved all their forces to Richmond!
Posted by: KevinDavis | May 01, 2008 at 17:43
If it's a turnout like that, Livingstone will win.
Posted by: Charles Hall | May 01, 2008 at 17:51
Voted in Liverpool Central ward earlier today. Beautiful day, but the polling station was absolutely deserted. Hardly surprising really- turnout here was 11.8% at the last election. The lowest in the country.
Our candidate here obviously can't win- it's Liverpool and he came fourth behind the greens last time. But I voted out of principle anyway.
Posted by: MrB | May 01, 2008 at 18:07
Just back from voting in Putney.
First preference for Sian Berry, out of principle, as I know she can't win, so to be safe my second preference went to Ken.
It's a good feeling.
Posted by: Richard Brett | May 01, 2008 at 18:13
Hey! My brother tells me that Boris is polling OK- in Hackney!
Posted by: eugene | May 01, 2008 at 18:29
If a load of ballot papers have been accidentally voided in Lambeth then surely that will help Boris?
All hell will break loose if there's a narrow Boris victory and a stack of spoilt Livingstone votes
But it would be very, very funny
Posted by: Paul D | May 01, 2008 at 18:34
Serious worries on PB.com from rumours that Ken is doing amazingly well and might do it. Betting money going on him fast right now. Also rumour of a leak from ITN that Boris is in serious trouble. Possibly all **** but anxious-making nevertheless. It's going to be a nervous night in our house.
Posted by: Prodicus | May 01, 2008 at 18:42
I don't believe that Prodicus.
You've heard of push polling?
I reckon some push blogging may be taking place.
Posted by: Editor | May 01, 2008 at 18:45
Mike Smithson confirmed someone had impersonated him and other posters - no exit poll information, no panic
Posted by: Ted | May 01, 2008 at 19:05
Are we having a live chatroom-blog thing this evening like we did during that Channel 4 programme?
Posted by: Richard | May 01, 2008 at 19:07
From the Grauniad's election blog:
"A commenter on Comment is free, who wrote yesterday evening that this time he's really had enough of Ken, has just let me know that when he finally got the stub of pencil in his hand he relented: Paddick first, Ken second as the lesser of two evils. Is this a trend or a coincidence?"
Looks like 1992 in reverse. They may not like Ken and think Boris is an amiable chap, but when the hand hovers over the ballot paper they can't bring themselves to do it.
Posted by: Richard Brett | May 01, 2008 at 19:12
Mark, for what it's worth unless you know better than me I'm pretty sure they were using Bluechip! Not everyone has Merlin
Posted by: Deputy Editor | May 01, 2008 at 19:24
Does anyone know if East Staffordshire district council is voting today? The issues may not be of national importance but Burton-upon-Trent is gonna be a key swing marginal in the next general election.
Posted by: comstock | May 01, 2008 at 19:25
No, Comstock, E Staffs had its all-out election last year
Posted by: Paul D | May 01, 2008 at 19:43
Thank you, Paul D. Isn't it odd that some places go a third at a time and some all-out.
Anyway, given that fact I shall be watching Tamworth from up the road. Of course most eyes will be on London, but Tamworth is more typical of the sort of place that will decide the next election- not very rich but not very poor, not a massive metropolis but not out in the sticks.
Posted by: comstock | May 01, 2008 at 19:51
Cornstock, I seem to recall Tamworth has been solidly Conservative for at least the law few years. You think it's somewhere where we might see a Labour fightback?
Posted by: David (One of many) | May 01, 2008 at 20:13
We shall see, David, I really don't know about that.
What I do know is it is a typical swing marginal, and hence worth keeping an eye on to see if it stays blue/gets more or less blue....
Posted by: comstock | May 01, 2008 at 20:28
Ahh, I get you, Cornstock.
I personally live in the Tunbridge Wells area, so it's not a particularly thrilling local election. The council is 41 & 7 to the Tories and LDs respectively - Labour were wiped out in 2007. So not much fun going on here.
Posted by: David (One of many) | May 01, 2008 at 20:33
Not long to go. If this is not the success we pray for, God only help our Country and our people.
Posted by: m dowding | May 01, 2008 at 21:30
This headline popped up on the NewsNow feed a little while ago, but the link was dead...
"Johnson and Livingstone neck and neck in race to become London Mayor" The Daily Mail - News 20:09
Posted by: Deputy Editor | May 01, 2008 at 21:38
"Johnson and Livingstone neck and neck in race to become London Mayor"
That is the Evening Standard article - the Daily Mail often prints articles from its sister paper
Posted by: MB | May 01, 2008 at 21:41
I suppose at the moment they ARE neck-and-neck, no votes each on published figures
Posted by: Paul D | May 01, 2008 at 21:42
Very unscientific exit poll here:
Most voters live in South London, Kent and Surrey.
Labour: 21%
Conservative: 35%
Chose not to vote: 11%
Liberal Democrat: 9%
BNP: 8%
Sample size so far - 170.
http://forums.cpfc.org/showthread.php?s=&postid=6577042#post6577042
Posted by: Edison Smith | May 01, 2008 at 21:48
In Wakefield we have been working very hard in a record number of wards. Even just two years ago I was given all manner of unpleasant hand signals when I went out with the loudspeaker. Today a lot of thumbs up and smiling people.
I predict that Wakefield will make further gains at tomorrow's count. The turnout was very sluggish up until around 5.30 when it went into overdrive as people came back from work to vote.
This tells me that the Labour vote in the early afternoon didn't come out, and the Tory late afternoon surge did.
Very unscientific, but it is a good indication of how things could be going.
Posted by: Antony Calvert | May 01, 2008 at 21:56
Antony, how do you think we'll do in Outwood East? We've been doing well in Wrenthorpe & Outwood West, but Stanley & Outwood East is still quite stubbornly Labour (although it's a marginal). If we begin making serious inroads there then So What could start to squirm a bit uncomfortably if things pick up for us in Morley as well
Posted by: Paul D | May 01, 2008 at 22:00
I've just finished at Ealing. Long long day, but worth it!! Turnout was very good amongst conservatives - just hope it was correspondingly low in Labour heartlands.
One point that came up a few times when knocking-up, was that a good few were against Boris because he was 'FOR a 3rd Runway', had to put them all right there. One wee mistake was that all but one leaflet failed to mention the opposition to the 3rd runway. Anyway, think it will bew VERY close. Fingers crossed.
(ps - everyone worked their socks off in Ealing today, so heartening)
Posted by: Oberon Houston | May 01, 2008 at 22:10
Paul; well I think Stanley and Outwood East ward will be close, but I'm not sure Labour have quite hit the floor there just yet.
I'm a natural pessimist, but we may just miss out there.
As for Morley, well that is one area where we have the greatest potential. It will be interesting to see that result. Wrenthorpe (my old ward) should be a comfortable win.
Posted by: Antony Calvert | May 01, 2008 at 22:18
Tim
EXCLUSIVE PERSPECTIVE ON MAJOR NEWS STORY FOR YOU Re the 14 "invalid" voting papers at Kennington, one of your regular posters was there telling for the Conservatives when it all happened (me). (I am posting under my real first name and surname initial although usually post here under a handle but, from email address etc, you can verify I am a regular.)
I arrived to take over my telling slot at about 8.10am and very shortly thereafter an irate gentleman came out complaining about the officers writing the polling numbers on the ballot papers, asking me and the one other teller present to confirm that what they were doing was wrong. We did so and the other teller, who was the Lib Dem peer Lord Oakshott (being a Tory naturally I deferred to rank), went in and spoke to the very inexperienced officers administering the polling station and they agreed that they must have been mistaken in doing what they had been. They said that their instructions told them to write the polling number "alongside" the ballot paper number and they had thought that meant on the ballot paper. Oakshott explained it meant on the separate list.
The irate voter then went off and said he was going to call the BBC etc. I must admit that I thought they wouldn't be interested, but clearly they were. I also think it is fairly outrageous if the 14 votes are rendered invalid when it was not the voters who had made the "distinguishing mark".
Now here is my only real scoop from having been there: I am fairly sure that the vote of Lord (Matthew) Oakshott himself was one of the 14 votes supposedly to be rendered invalid! I know this because once the irate other voter had complained he remembered that they had put the number on his own voting paper when he had voted a short time before but had not thought about it at the time. I do not think we will have lost even a second preference from him but early voters in a place like Kennington (these were in the first hour and a quarter) tend to be disproportionately Tory City folk etc who get to work early. The polling station concerned is probably a fairly even three way split between the main parties (Lib Dem held the Ward until two years ago (Princes), then it went Labour, but we have been working it hard as we have been a very good third in a constituency where mostly we are a poor third).
Posted by: Charles P | May 01, 2008 at 22:46
On the more generally point, turnout appeared to be fairly high in inner London Lambeth. So to my mind we need firm evidence of a GREATER increase in turnout in Tory outer London than in Labour inner London before we can get too euphoric.
I still think Boris will sneak it, but just a little cautious about the margin...
Posted by: Charles P | May 01, 2008 at 22:50
Good news eh Comstock - one Con gain from Lab in Tamworth
Posted by: Paul D | May 01, 2008 at 23:21
I'm sure they wrote a number on my ballot for the last general election. I thought it was odd as it could mean they could identify me from my ballot but assumed they knew what they were doing and it was to counteract fraud or something.
They didn't today though.
Posted by: LondonLX | May 01, 2008 at 23:29
Conservatives are gaining, we are taking LibDem seats faster than Labour seats, which is especially gratifying to those activists who have had to endure the duplicity and viciousness of the LibDems.... NOW WE HAVE HARLOW! - HOLD SWINDON & SOUTHEND ON SEA.
Posted by: Oberon Houston | May 02, 2008 at 00:51
Get ready to celebrate, things are looking up.
Posted by: Oberon Houston | May 02, 2008 at 00:53