Labour should keep Brown in place

Remember that photo from 1992 that showed John Major with his head in his hands?  The camera can be very cruel and this image from Sky is very unkind to Gordon Brown.

How bad is it for the PM?  Bad and getting worse:

• Hot on the heels of 'the May Day massacre' we have Frank Field threatening to no confidence the PM if he doesn't complete a full u-turn on 10p.
• Mr Field - again - has said that he would be "very surprised" if Gordon Brown was still Prime Minister by the time of the General Election.  Every Conservative's favourite Labour MP told the BBC World Service that Mr Brown appeared "so unhappy inside his own body" and was prone to "indescribable" rages.
• Mr Brown had to travel through a valley of memoirs at the weekend and an opinion poll suggesting Crewe is likely to be lost to the Conservatives.  And Labour are fighting a campaign that the party's own activists have dubbed "disgusting".
• We've had another attempt at a relaunch this morning but (as was obvious from the 8.10am Today interview with Alan Johnson) we're not getting any decisive government action on social care for the elderly but yet another review.

But is Labour's fundamental problem its leader or an overall sense of exhaustion?  There is no obvious alternative to Mr Brown and, as Louise Bagshawe noted a month ago, Labour's internal rules make it very hard to unseat him.  We'd also recommend that Brown is left in place unless he chooses to quit.  The toppling of Margaret Thatcher in 1990 may have brought short-term electoral gain for the Conservatives but it injected a poison into the party's bloodstream for many years.  Our party is only just rediscovering the importance of loyalty.  Labour should use its remaining time in government to govern and face the electorate in 2010 with Gordon Brown as its leader.

Comments

[Man in a Shed]

Gordon is brilliant - he should be kept as Labour leader for ever !

[Alan S]

Alan Johnson is the one we should fear. He has the common, no nonsense touch.

[London Tory]

One of the funniest, if most disgusting aspects of Brown's collapse has been the way his former cheerleaders in the left wing press have turned on him.

Poor Martin Kettle, Michael White, Jonathan Freedland, Jackey Marr and Polly Toynbee. For years they swallowed Blair in the name of the greater good, by which I mean a vast unsustainable expansion in the Brown-fuelled Worthless Bureaucracy. 'Watch Our Man Go' they promised, free from the Blair/Levy spivvery of the latter years.

I have got e mail exchanges with some of the above from a couple of years ago, in which I warned them that Brown was a Political Tin Ear who would quote 'go down like a rat sandwich in the Midlands and the South'.

'No, not our man' they replied, he has a moral compass. The country is sick of spin and spivvery. Just imagine their hand wringing frustration now, as the penny finally drops- they have backed a dud, and whats more- they are stuck with him !

Not flash, just cr*ap, thats Gordon.

[Mark Fulford]

The most dangerous thing for us would be if Gordon Brown were to forget opinion polls, elections and headlines, discover some self confidence and start governing for the good of the country. Fortunately for us, I think that's beyond him.

[Curly]

Do we really think that Labour's problems are solely represented by one man? Would Miliband, Johnson, Straw, or Cruddas reverse their fortunes?

Labour's term is now terminal, the tipping point has passed (the 10p tax rate was the final straw), no amount of reviews, palliative massaging of the electorate, or cabinet reshuffles will serve to change anything.

They are moving in one direction only - towards the exits!

[David Belchamber]

It is a nice conceit to hope that Brown stays in place for some while yet, as that can only boost our chances of a bigger election win. Indeed, unless Brown undergoes a huge transformation very soon, he could make Labour unelectable again for a very long time.

However, it is time for him to go because the country is now suffering and there is a lot of unrest. But we don't want just another change of Labour leader, we need a general election and it is not beyond the bounds of possibility that the government will be defeated next month, if Frank Field and his supporters are not satisfied by Brown's climbdown.

We were not ready for a snap election last year; I hope that we will be ready for possible autumn one this year.

Bremner, Bird and Fortune were in magnificent form yesterday. There were two turns that CCHQ should get permission to show: the George Parr interview and a duo between Brown and Darling: "There's a hole in my Budget...". Both absolutely brilliant!

[lLondon Tory]

Frank Field is totally overrated, especially by Tories.

Mrs Thatcher had it right about him when she said:

"A good man, its a shame just about every view he holds is wrong".

[woodentop]

I don't think Labour's chances would be greatly improved by the removal of Gordon - as someone else has already pointed out, they are moving towards the exits. There is a sea change and people want a move away from them in a Conservative direction.

[Richard Weatherill]

The big problem for Labour is that Brown's vacillation, especially over the last few months, has revealed quite clearly that they don't actually have a 'big idea', or stand for anything very much at all. This perception is now so strong that it will take a miracle for them to reverse it. Brown himself is wholly incapable of performing such a miracle and, as time goes by, the chance of anyone else pulling it off before the next election recedes still further.

The electorate might be forgiven for thinking that the Conservatives don't stand for very much either, but at least Dave comes across as being pleasant.

[passing leftie]

Thank you so much for the advice. I know it's coming from the bottom of your heart.

The most dangerous thing for us would be if Gordon Brown were to forget opinion polls, elections and headlines, discover some self confidence and start governing for the good of the country. Fortunately for us, I think that's beyond him

This is just what he should do. I can't see it happening, though.

[Dirty European Socialist]

I think the PM should stay for a few more months, for labour's benefit. What is the point in getting rid of the PM and throwing the new leader into an economic downturn?
There just seems to be a he should go now or he should never go mentality. The middle way is that he should be a lightening condutor for the economic woe.

[Jake]

Labour is certainly on the ropes. Not given up yet,just dazed and distracted. Keep in mind they have a possible 2 years in which to make a comeback.

"There is no obvious alternative to Mr Brown"

Yes there is and it is Frank Field. If he became Labour leader- not beyond the bounds of possibility- he would be a serious challenge for the Conservatives.

[Londoner]

It's clearly extremely important for all Party loyalists to support the continuation of Brown's leadership through to the election. If I do not say which Party I have in mind, please put that down to my natural discretion and shyness.

Any doubters should just look at the wisdom of the Conservative Party in keeping John Major in 1995. Let's just hope that the loyalists in the present Government maintain the same steadiness under fire.

[London Tory]

The lifespan of New Labour is very clear.

1994-1997- don't rock the boat, let Tories implode. Aided and abetted by the likes of Hamilton and Mellor, we obliged.

1997- 2003- rely on the genius acting skills of one man to 'reassure' Middle England.

2003. Huge setback, acting skills no longer work as thespian buys the hospital pass from Bush.

2004-2005- country wants change but Tories not ready, hollow victory on record low turnout.

2006- ingrates and Scottish PLP dismiss thespian.

2007- ? death throes, dud elected by Scottish PLP, no more 'aw shucks' charm to fall back on when s*it hits the fan [botched election, discgate, immigration etc]. Electorates indifference turns to outright hatred.

In conclusion, today for Labour reminds me of exactly where we were in the mid 90s.

[HF]

Sir Michael White, Empress Polly Toynbee and Mrs Marr. All long term supporters of Brown.

There is nothing funnier than the commentariat being proved utterly wrong on Brown.

Add Hefferlump and Janet Daley to the list of hacks that got it wrong.

[Tanuki]

"Never interrupt your enemy when he is making a mistake" -- Napoleon Bonaparte.

OK, OK - so eventually Napoleon got defeated. But I must confess to getting regular frissons of schadenfreude with each new New Labour disaster or outbreak of backstabbing that's revealed.

[passing leftie]

1994-1997- don't rock the boat, let Tories implode. Aided and abetted by the likes of Hamilton and Mellor, we obliged.

1997- 2003- rely on the genius acting skills of one man to 'reassure' Middle England.

I don't agree with this analysis, but change the dates, I can think of another party to which it applies...

[Yet Another Anon]

Yes there is and it is Frank Field. If he became Labour leader- not beyond the bounds of possibility- he would be a serious challenge for the Conservatives.
People frequently only focus on what he says on time limiting benefits for those under 60 and for a fully funded pension - what they don't mention is that he thinks that JSA should be raised to be at the same level as Incapacity Benefit\Income Support and that the State Pension should be hugely expanded and raised in level - he never seems to explain where the money comes from, and if he had been a Conservative Secretary of State rather than a Labour one I imagine he would have been fired too on grounds that his proposals for savings do not cover some of his extravagant ideals.

Frank Field or John McDonnell becoming Labour leader would lead to the collapse of the Labour government in days as hostile MPs turned on the leadership and even broke away into other major groupings - John McDonnell has little support outside of his little group and Frank Field alienates supporters of Tony Blair, Gordon Brown and the Bennite tendency.

The only person I could think of who might takeover if Gordon Brown suddenly decided to jack it all in would be Stephen Byers - he has been outside the government long enough to be seen as a fresh face - he is popular among New Labour and his presiding over the end of Railtrack is popular with many dissident Labour MPs, he also has more experience than David Milliband or Ed Balls who anyway would be too associated with Gordon Brown to be seen as something fresh. The fact is that the PLP will stick with Gordon Brown because they know that going through 2 PMs even before a General Election would not look good and would probably kill what chances they had of getting an overall majority and because Gordon Brown probably has the least opposition within the PLP among any possible candidate.

[No Eye Deer]

I suspect that if Labour ditched Brown and had another leadership contest (not that they had one the last time actually) then their would be plenty of their MPs coming out the woodwork wanting to be PM.

[Letters From A Tory]

Keep Brown right where he is. I don't want anyone pushing Labour back into contention in the polls, thank you very much.