How many council seats will the Conservatives win tonight?

(Or lose?). No prize, just for fun.

Tie-breaker question: How many council seats will Labour win/ lose?

We'll average your predictions - as we've done in previous years - to make a 10pm 'wisdom of the crowds' prediction.

Comments

[bluepatriot]

177 Tory gains

114 Labour loses

[Joe James Broughton]

Con 42% +121
Lab 27/28% -103
LD 23% -47
Oths 7% +29

[Alan S]

150 Tory gains

100 Lab losses

45 LD losses

[Orlando]

Con gain: 197

Lab loses: 185

[Chad Noble]

Tory gain 184

[NorthernEconomist]

Conservative win 182
Labour lose 142

[Mark]

+85 conservative
-50 labour

[EML]

Conservative gain: 218 (here's hoping)

Labour lose: 182

[James Burdett]

Conservative gain 285

Labour lose 300

[MrB]

Wild stab!

208 seats gained for us

176 losses for labour

[MrB]

That's brave James! Let's hope you're right!

[David Jones]

Conservative gain: 212
Labour loss: 155

and...

Lib Dem loss: 39

[Keir Gravil]

My prediction is:

181 Conservative gains.
150 Labour losses.

[Will Stobart]

152 Con gains

167 Lab Losses

[Richard]

Labour lose 160

We gain 198

Are the BBC steaming the footage live off of their website this evening? The TV is in a different room to the computer and I don't really want to keep running to and fro.

[Will Stobart]

Yes Richard, I think they're streaming it live online :)

[R Simpson]

Con Gain 230

Lab loss 205

[Tony Makara]

I won't try to guess a figure but I'm hoping there will be a substantial cull of all those intellectual pigmies and wannabe politicians who run our local politics into ruin.

If James Burdett is right it will be a marvellous night.

[Robbie]

Conservative win 188
Labour lose 169

[The Daily Pundit]

Con gain 323
Labour lose 171

[Malcolm Dunn]

No prize??? Not even a mug?
Well in for a penny. I'll top James Burdett.Tories to gain 290 Labour to lose 320 plus.

[Craig Morrison]

Tories to gain 260.

Labour to lose 160

[Gary]

I don't really want to guess the numbers. As long as we start to get the momentum to change the goverment in the next election. But I hope I am elected as a Conservative in the Owton Ward in Hartlepool.

[BW]

Conservative gain 221

Labour lose 165

[Daily Referendum]

369 con gains

351 lab losses

[eugene]

I am going to upset people here!

The LibDems were on Iraq War high last time...many of those seats will go back to Labour.

These seats are in Labour heartland areas generally- the Conservatives cannot win many more and we run some councils there now....and not all councils are successful.

Prediction- loses for LibDems- substantial(80 losses net).
Minor overlall losses for Labour (20 net)
Conservatives - about 90 net gains.

[John Reeks]

Con gains: 275
Lab loss: 230

[Hug a Druggie]

Con loss 100
Lab loss 130
Lib Dem gain 230

[StevenAdams]

labour -25
con +75

We're at too high a base and they are at too low a base for a massacre. Libs will be interesting to watch.

[Andrew Lilico]

Con gain 220
Labour loss 250

I think Labour's going to get a hiding from everybody this time, even the LibDems, and I don't think we are quite so automatically the people to go for as some of the other estimates above suggest...

[Stephen Spillane]

Cons Gain 150,
Lab lose 120

[Andrew Lilico]

Incidentally, I assume that Labour is going to come third in vote share by some margin? Anyone take a different view?

[Sammy Finn]

Con +89

Lab -101

[Andrew Lilico]

How low could Labour's national share of the vote go? Is 22% out of the question? How low would it need to go to trigger an immediate crisis in the Labour Party?

[Praguetory]

Tories to gain 205, Libs to lose 47, Lab to lose 139.

Both Libs and Labour to be buffeted by the fallout. There will also be one or two milestone results of the Tories (e.g surprise council gains or new territory won)

[Chappers]

Con + 129
Lab -97
Lib -32

[Owen Meredith]

289 conservative gains

315 labour losses

[Victor, NW Kent]

Conservative +142
Labour - 165
LibDems +1
Others +22

[DavidRHayes]

"How low could Labour's national share of the vote go? Is 22% out of the question? How low would it need to go to trigger an immediate crisis in the Labour Party?"

Well the worrying thing for Labour is that last year they were scoring 26-27% when the polls predicted about low 30%

22% might not be out the question, but turnout is everything. The good news is Brown seems to be resigned to losing by a large amount, and that will kill Labour morale.

[Yet Another Anon]

At a wild guess:
Conservative 41% +100
Labour 30% +110
Liberal Democrat 20% -220
Green 4% +20
BNP 1% -15
UKIP 1% +5
Other 3% +0-

[R.Baker.]

Conservative Party gains-167

Labour Party loses-152

Liberal Democrat Party loses-75

UKI Party gains-17

[Deputy Editor]

Thanks all. Average of all 35 figures above is 182.

[Sam R]

Conservatives +200
Labour -120
Lib. Dems. -25

[Yet Another Anon]

The Liberal Democrats actually seem to be making modest net gains which is very surprising.

[Andrew Lilico]

It looks like a toss-up between me and James for closest at the moment...

[James Burdett]

So it seems Andrew, Although according to Sky I'm about 80 out on Labour and about 20 out on us.

[Andrew Lilico]

BBC has Conservatives up 252 (so me fractionally closer), Labour down 310 (so you much closer).

My guess is that you'll have it in the end.

[James Burdett]

Andrew - I'll share the non-prize!!