Harriet, Jack, David and Alan are here to see you, Prime Minister

The headline numbers point to a 24% Conservative lead.  But the most interesting finding in the post post-Crewe poll - by YouGov for The Telegraph - is that voters have reached a clear conclusion that Brown is a massive liability to Labour.

Although a slim majority - 52% - don't think a change of Labour leader will make much difference, 32% think Labour's chances will improve and just 8% think things will get worse.  Only 15% are satisfied with Brown's performance and 75% are dissatisfied.

There is much talk of the difficulty of getting rid of Brown.  These sorts of polling numbers suggest to Labour MPs that Mr Brown's position is close to impossible.  Could he really stay in post if Harriet Harman, Jack Straw, David Miliband and Alan Johnson call a meeting and tell him to quit?  John Howard faced down such a delegation a year or so ago when the Australian Liberal Party was facing defeat under his leadership.  He survived as Liberal leader but Labor's Kevin Rudd became PM in a massive win.

PS Who are the 2% of voters who told YouGov that taxes are too low?

Comments

[James Burdett]

The 2% who think taxes are too low are probably not paying them! So this is three YouGov's in succession with leads north of 20%. A near 18% swing in Crewe, and the LibDems flailing desperately for attention. Does it get much better than this until we actually get concrete General election results?

[Libertarian]

Wow! Even a hardened old cynic like me is impressed.

The 2% of voters who think taxes are too low are hypocritical rich greens who are anti-growth. Remind you anyone? The clue is supermarkets.

[Alan S]

The 2% probably includes the head of Policy Exchange, Anthony Browne. He was so rubbish on Today last Saturday. He was repeating the left wing language that we'd fought the last few elections on lower taxation and lost. Keep up Mr Browne! I hope Policy Exchange's analysis is normally better.

[Prodicus]

Memo to Steve Richards: Don't worry, mate. Wild exaggeration. Everybody knows it's all made up by the Murdoch press. 'Constitutional reform' is the answer: bring in PR before the next election (and don't forget the state funding of political parties) and it'll all come right.

[David (One of many)]

What a wonderful trend this seems to be continuing! And when you factor in the so-called 'secret Tory' vote, it's even more frightening for a certain Mr. Brown.

[Prodicus]

"PS Who are the 2% of voters who told YouGov that taxes are too low?"

Polly, Jackie, Andy, Kevin, Sir Michael, Johann... but I'm just guessing.

[Praguetory]

Excellent - These are such stuff as dreams are made of.

[Louise Bagshawe]

Really enjoyed this TD heading, Editor :)

[ChrisD]

Great polling figure for the Conservatives!

"PS Who are the 2% of voters who told YouGov that taxes are too low?"

You are all looking at the figure the wrong way round! I suspect that even a year ago it might not have been that low, it means that Brown and the Labour party have finally taxed us until the pips squeaked, and its almost unanimous among the electorate.
The clear message is no more tax increases, one concern though, we are heading for economic rough weather and like Mrs Thatcher back in 79', we might have to put taxes up before we can drop them whether we want to or not.

[Ulster Tory]

2%?

Well, probably a 1/5 of QUANGO workers then...

[Jim Holder]

Stuff the 2% who think taxes are too low. Why is Cleggy's percentage holding?

[kingbongo]

these are the sort of numbers I used to put into Electoral Calculus just cheer myself up when we were behind in the polls - absolutely amazing !!

[Jacob]

Excuse my youth, but what was the lowest that the Tories polled back in the early 90s?

[Libertarian]

Further thought on the loony 2%. It's the 3 Johns- Bercow, Maples and Gummer.

[David]

I know a few people who think taxes are too low-none of them are wealthy, but they believe in high levels of public spending and feel willing to sacrifice more of their income for it.

Caricaturing those who disagree with you is the first step to defeat, as Gordon Brown is finding out with his toff campaign.

[James, Swad]

Jim Holder: You usually see the Lib Dem vote hover around 20% in the run up to general elections, seems Clegg is finally finding his feet as a Central-right Lib Dem Candidate, which makes him a central role. If he plays his cards right and carefully he could begin to clamber and claw a few more points off of Labour. or those "undecided" may vote tactically for the Libs instead of the Tories.

However, the main thrust of attack now comes from the Tories, which is good. It's just a shame the Lib Dems can't get their act together to give help destroy the Labour party and end the 80 year "flirt" with a socialist party amongst the ranks

[Edison Smith]

In other, just as important, YouGov news, the pollster has found the nation's favourite time to drink a cool glass of milk is 8.24am exactly.

Most popular temperature is 4 degrees C.
Most popular accompaniment is a cookie.

Research released by The Dairy Council to mark World Milk Day on 1 June reveals the UK’s favourite time of the day to enjoy a glass of milk. A survey commissioned by YouGov questioned over 2,000 people and discovered that the nation’s ‘magic milk moment’ is 8.24am – precisely!

http://www.foodbev.com/ArticleDetail.aspx?contentId=997

On a more relevent note, these poll results are just getting better and better. Three months ago, the aim was to get above 40%. Then a month ago it was to hit 45%. Now we're at 47% and taking it for granted!

[ToryBOy]

James, don't forget the cornerstone of Lib Dem philosophy - electoral reform.

Only the complete erradication of the Fib Dems rather than Labour will ensure the future of the country by ensuring against the bringing in an electoral system where the least unpoular wins, a transfer of power form the electorate to the political classes and where the Yellow Terror will be in government for pereruity!

[Buckinghamshire Tory]

"And when you factor in the so-called 'secret Tory' vote, it's even more frightening for a certain Mr. Brown"

Honestly I don't think that's much of a factor any longer. It probably was from 1995 to 2005, but now we are pretty much "rehabilitated" in the eyes of the public.

I am however happy for these great results. My only worry is that we may grow complacent.

[rod sharp]

If the Labour party in its wisdom decides that Brown must go there is no way that the opposition should allow to go unchallenged a second change of prime minister without an election. The labour party should simply not get away with switching from PM to PM; this only happens in banana republics.

[Malcolm Dunn]

There is much talk of getting rid of Brown.Who with? They're already scraping the barrel with some of their cabinet. Alan Johnson and Hilary Benn appear to be nice people but that's about it.Not one of the leading Labour figures is remotely PM material.

[David (One of many)]

Buckinghamshire Tory, I'd agree to a certain extent. But in C&N, the Mayoral, and the Locals, we did slightly better in all of them than even the most optimistic polling was suggesting. Maybe it's not a secret vote anymore, but maybe we are attracting the votes of those people who walk into the polling station without their minds made up yet.

[Richard Brett]

Not one of the leading Labour figures is remotely PM material.

John Denham is. Jack Straw is, in a John Major-ish sort of way. Hilary Benn would be interesting, though possibly a bit wishy washy.

I think Alan Johnson could do it quite well, he's certainly more charming than Brown. He must be the most dangerous candidate from the Tories' perspective.

There are also potentials outside the cabinet - Alan Milburn could be interesting, could he do a Heseltine (and win)?

However, the outstanding candidate has to be David Miliband. Clever and young, very bright. I don't really understand the jibes about him being a "schoolboy", "too young", especially coming from the Tories... have any of you noticed that he's actually older than Cameron AND has been in government for over 5 years (cabinet for 3)?

[ChrisD]

"these are the sort of numbers I used to put into Electoral Calculus just cheer myself up when we were behind in the polls - absolutely amazing !!"

Used to do that too, only it did not cheer me up! It took such a big leap to get to a majority that I got depressed when I saw the mountain we had to climb.
Fantastic feeling to be able to put those numbers in using real polling figures!

[MrB]

There is no one in Labour that can come close to matching Cameron. They are just all too 'weird' or uncharismatic. Even Milliband. He (and most of the other contenders) just doesn't have the ability to look comfortable in all situations. Even though Johnson may be more likeable than most, he doesn't have as much gravitas as Cameron. Could you imagine Johnson giving an inspiring, energetic speech? DC however, excels at both being likeable, energetic and charismatic.

[Dave J]

At this rate, isn't Labour practically on track to run third behind the Libs for the first time since the 1920's?

[Alex Swanson]

The labour party should simply not get away with switching from PM to PM; this only happens in banana republics.

People say this, but I'm never quite clear on what is intended if Labour try it. Mass strikes? Armed revolution? Miltary coup?

[Sally Roberts]

Sadly not, Alex, thought it might be fun! The British people have never really been into the armed revolution bit - unlike the French. I believe the nearest we ever got her to some sort of coup was a rumour of something way back in the 1970s which may or may not have had the Late Lord Mountbatten involved in it. It never got off the ground.

[David]

Thankfully.

Our constitution theoretically allows for multiple changes of Prime Minister between elections, even in fact a change in the party of government, as the PM is simply the person who can command the Commons.

[Buckinghamshire Tory]

"Maybe it's not a secret vote anymore, but maybe we are attracting the votes of those people who walk into the polling station without their minds made up yet."

You may easily be right, but it could also mean that we finish our electoral campaigns stronger than we used to do.

[Jonathan]

Sorry to pour cold water on this moment of jubilation but I am yet to be convinced what we would do in office that would really help

As to the 2%, the last time I heard a definitive statement they officially included the entire shadow cabinet.
The only lower taxes they are proposing are IHT and stamp duty for first time buyers. That doesn't constitute a lower tax platform. It constitutes an October gamble against their better judgments, which surprisingly for them and gratifyingly for us seems to have paid off.

[Jonathan]

Sorry to pour cold water on this moment of jubilation but I am yet to be convinced what we would do in office that would really help

As to the 2%, the last time I heard a definitive statement they officially included the entire shadow cabinet.
The only lower taxes they are proposing are IHT and stamp duty for first time buyers. That doesn't constitute a lower tax platform. It constitutes an October gamble against their better judgments, which surprisingly for them and gratifyingly for us seems to have paid off.

[London Tory]

re: our 20% plus lead.

You can tell how rattled the Left are by the increasingly shrill tone of their left wing cheerleaders in the Press this week. Kevin Maguire has gone beyond parody and no longer deserves to be classed as a journalist. Paul Routledge moved into that category some years ago. Polly, Jackie, Johann and Freedland all grind their teeth and wail in frustration that the 'little people' [otherwise known as the electorate] have seen through Brown. Even Steve Richards, the eminence grise of Liberal thinking, now wants to move the goalposts and bring in PR, fearing the slaughter that is to come under GB.

[New Hack]

This 2% is fascinating isn't it ?
I suspect that they are either members of the cabinet or more likely unemployed near do wells, who are not literate enough to realize that they are paying tax's themselves. Most likely its simple mischief makers

[Yogi]

I dont want to spoil the party - but there is one big danger here. What will happen if Brown calls Clegg and says, 'Nick, lets have a pact. We'll introduce PR by ramming the bill through parliament and be the Government for ever.'

The thought frightens me.

[Buckinghamshire Tory]

Yogi at 11:06.

I know exactly what you mean, and it frightens me as well. Brown is the sort of man that might do such a thing.
In that way he is far worse that Michael Foot and Jim Callaghan. They were decent men, even though their ideas were horribly wrong.

[comstock]

It's really starting to feel like 1995/96 in reverse now.

The difference being, I can't see a substantial reason for changing government. It's just depressing.

[Paul D]

Yogi - if that did happen then

1. At the moment we'd STILL be the largest party (47% cf 41 for the unholy alliance)
2. Such a cynical manipulation for blatent party gain would probably see a few more % slide over to us and see us still win an overall majority

[ChrisD]

"What will happen if Brown calls Clegg and says, 'Nick, lets have a pact. We'll introduce PR by ramming the bill through parliament and be the Government for ever.'"

Brown would have to call a GE and fight for this reform in his manifesto alongside the Libdems.
If they did not do so, it would feed into the lack of accountability and desperation of the government already being felt by the electorate, they would be punished in the ballot box more severely IMHO.

[A]

Whilst I am aware these results have yet to be realised, I think that with such a result the tory majority would a fair bit larger than anyone is predicting because the efficiency of the Labour vote would be incredibly low. The vote would be made up of die hard Labour supporters, a large number of whom would be in unwinnable seats. For example, in my constituency at every election Labour gets an unchanging 5,000 votes despite it being impossible for them to win. This 5,000 will never swing Tory or Lib Dem and so Labour will have an enormous proportion of their limited vote being wasted nationally in seats they can't, and never have been able to, win.

[Philip Jackson]

"What will happen if Brown calls Clegg and says, 'Nick, lets have a pact. We'll introduce PR by ramming the bill through parliament and be the Government for ever.'

At this late stage that could be a high risk strategy for Labour, for it may only require a few more items of bad news for them to fall below the LDs. Then, in a General Election:

Under FPTP: Labour would still have more seats than the LD; for example a GE result with Tories on 45%, Labour on 21% and LDs on 23% would give a result of 430 seats (Con); 140 (Lab) and LDs (51) (using Anthony Wells’s predictor), but

Under PR: Labour would be in some danger of slumping to become the third party in the HoC, especially in view of the strong ‘get-the-bastards-out’ factor that would motivate both Cons and LDs.

To cover their asses adequately Labour could have done this years ago, but they then lacked foresight (they now have a sort of retrospective foresight).

[comstock]

"What will happen if Brown calls Clegg and says, 'Nick, lets have a pact. We'll introduce PR by ramming the bill through parliament and be the Government for ever.'

Surely that would mean the end of the liberals in a couple of electoral cycles, just as the national liberals effectively disappeared into the Tory party.

I can't see the libdems going for it, and even if they did, there would be no guarntee of success, because it would smack of desparation.

I wish I could be more positive about this, because in theory it is great.

[ChrisD]

PL, its Chris not Chad!!!!
I have emailed Tim regarding that post.

[Deputy Editor]

I've deleted an off topic and potentially libellous comment and a few comments that referred to it.

Please don't hesitate to email us if you spot an inappropriate comment like that, thankfully they are rare.

[Sally Roberts]

Thank you Sam and well done!

[Gloy Plopwell]

I'm apsolutely delighted with these fabulous polls. Even when the Tories do well, we have managed to stay above where we were when we decapitated our leader last October. It proves that we have stupendous momentum and the plan to get us Lib dems into government in two years time is on trak. Unlike the other two partys we are honest and skweeky clean. Fabulous news, we're on our way and very excrited.

[B.Garvie]

These polls reflect the feelings of the vast majority of middle Britain who have remained silent for too long.They are finally waking up to Labour's false promises and lies.
G.Brown is hailed "as the greatest Chancellor of all time" by his misguided, self-serving colleagues. On the contrary, since 1997 with his 'raid on private & company pension funds' he has actually been "the most successful burglar in history". This YouGov poll reflects this sentiment.

[Sally Roberts]

Glad you're happy Gloy! We aim to please. Make the most of it while it lasts and stay "Skweeky", won't you?!

[ChrisD]

"On the contrary, since 1997 with his 'raid on private & company pension funds' he has actually been "the most successful burglar in history". This YouGov poll reflects this sentiment."

Not so much burgled the pensions, but rather used that clunking fist to go on a smash and grab raid.
And he is also quite a nimble pickpocket when it comes to any form of stealth taxation, he is always careful to leave us the wallet and a few quid in the hope we don't notice!