Crewe's Control: Live blog

Screen captures from BBC's coverage of the result:

12.30pm: Tory majority will be over 6,000 according to impeccable sources. Turnout confirmed at 58.2%

11.55pm: Great quote from Andrew Sparrow at The Guardian: "Pickles should look cheerful, but he doesn't.  "I've been up since 4 o'clock," he explains when I ask why. "For politicians, elections are like a combination of Christmas Day and root canal surgery.""

11.42pm: Reminder to read Jonathan Isaby's twittering from the count. Lots of good observations from him.

11.30pm: WE ARE CONFIDENT THAT CREWE & NANTWICH IS A TORY GAIN. WE EXPECT A 'SUBSTANTIAL' TORY MAJORITY. PERMISSION GRANTED TO CRACK OPEN THE CHAMPAGNE.

10.40pm: Graeme Archer has just posted on CentreRight about Tamsin Dunwoody standing as the Labour candidate when she could/ should have been grieving. 

10.30pm: Trouble for the Monster Loonies...

9pm: For context this graph (from The Telegraph's by-election HQ site) is useful.  Three Line Whip's Jonathan Isaby will be 'twittering' from the count from 10pm.

8.40pm: Labour sources are telling Benedict Brogan that the Conservative majority could be as high as 7,000!  A Conservative source is saying that may be a bit much.  Mr B also reveals that David Cameron is having an early night but will be woken with the result...

7.50pm: O/T but have you seen this?: "The European Parliament and the European Commission have bought the former Tory headquarters near the Houses of Parliament for £20m."

7.30pm: Nigel Fletcher captured this photo of a Tory activist with LibDem MP Simon Hughes.  Is this the new stage of lovebombing?

Welcome to our rolling coverage of the countdown to the result of the Crewe by-election.  We'll be setting up a live chatroom later but will be blogging regularly within this post for the next few hours.

Sam Coates of The Times (not THE Sam Coates), has already recorded one dirty Labour trick of the day.  We've just heard of another.  Some Labour activist, wearing a Panama hat, has been swanning around Crewe all day in an open top car trailing blue balloons.  Pathetic.

Plus two photos from earlier today: Top is a photo of four MPs - Alistair Burt, Mart Francois, Stewart Jackson and Daniel Kawczynski.  The fifth guy is Andrew Griffiths; Eric Pickles' chief of staff and, we hope, the next MP for Burton.  Below that is the number of poster sites that have been actioned by the campaign.  1,134 is a record by some margin.  Also: Don't miss our earlier reports on the gingerbread men poll and news of the 4am GOTV effort.

Comments

[Alan S]

Enough photos of MPs!

Are you intending to call Crewe as you called London Tim?

[Will Stobart]

I doubt he will, London could be called because Tim had his ear to the ground and lots of info coming in. I doubt we could get the same information from Crewe.

[Marjorie Sims]

Mark Francois is terribly short! or is Daniel Kawczynski the worlds tallest legislator?

On a more serious point.

Won't the shine of any by-election result be taken off somewhat by the publication of MPs expenses tomorrow?

[Tory Bear]

Tory Bear has already called Crewe for the Tories..

www.torybear.blogspot.com

[Gloy Plopwell]

The feel and mood on the ground is we Lib Dems can do it. Haven't met any Labour voters atall. We have stupendous momentum, and were very excrited.
We're on our way.
My prediction? Lib Dem majority of 6000
over Tories.
Can't stop - have to get back to it..

[Andrew Woodman]

Daniel Kawczynski is about 6ft 7 I believe Marjorie

[Richard]

"Sam Coates of The Times (not THE Sam Coates), has already recorded one dirty Labour trick of the day"

Can legal action be taken over such nuisance phonecalls?

[Acer]

Any one have any idea what sort of time we should get the result?

[Editor]

Not before 1.30am, Acer and more likely 3am.

Chances are we'll have a good idea of the result quite a while before then UNLESS it's very close.

News24 starts live coverage at 12.50am.

[Paul D]

Do we have anyone on the inside who will be able to give us updates from the count?

I believe Sky News has a special programme starting at 10 tonight

[Ken Stevens]

Acer | May 22,19:10

"Any one have any idea what sort of time we should get the result?"

0230, according to the telly.

[ChrisD]

"The European Parliament and the European Commission have bought the former Tory headquarters near the Houses of Parliament for £20m."

I saw it earlier, does this mean that they saw the irony of it?
I think that the Conservative party should give them a house warming gift, perhaps a portrait of Mrs Thatcher that they can hang in the entrance hall?

[Paul Oakley]

The European Parliament and the European Commission have bought the former Tory headquarters near the Houses of Parliament for £20m

NOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOO!!!!!!!!!

Actually, on second thoughts it doesn't matter in the overall scheme of things as they already own our country.

[John Leonard]

Tim:

For those who have it Sky News coverage purportedly starts at 10.00pm with the venerable Mr Boulton.

[Jon]

"The European Parliament and the European Commission have bought the former Tory headquarters near the Houses of Parliament for £20m"

Well why not, the Conservatives have been advancing the cause of EU integration for decades anyway.

[Deputy Editor]

Presumably the group who bought Smith Sq from the Tories only sold part of the package, otherwise they're £10m down I believe.

On a similar note, Labour are in £17.8m in debt according to the EC today.

[Richard Carey]

Well why not, the Conservatives have been advancing the cause of EU integration for decades anyway.

While we're working hard to win a seat at a by-election, you're still bleating away. A little tip - go and root for Mike Nattrass somewhere else, will you?

[Peter O]

The texting "dirty trick" that Sam Coates notes uses the Labour Central Party texting system - the text number 60022 has been used by them for lots of different things in the past. For example, here it is on the Labour Party website only weeks ago used for texting questions to Gordon Brown - http://www4.labour.org.uk/lfirst_ever_live_webcast.

This means that the texting campaign was authorised by the central party, and that means Gordon Brown or someone very senior in the party hierarchy or election machine.

[Jon]

"While we're working hard to win a seat at a by-election, you're still bleating away. A little tip - go and root for Mike Nattrass somewhere else, will you?"

I never said anything about Mike Nattrass or UKIP.

This may come as a dreadful shock to you, but not everyone looks at politics through the prism of parties, individuals or silly little by-elections.

[Libertarian]

If the turnout is above 60%, a Conservative majority of over 7,000 would be consistent with the latest Com Res opinion poll. I was looking to place a bet on such a result but no bookie would give me odds on it.

[Anonymous]

Why is the polling station at leighton primary scholl closed at 9pm, I want to vote but can't its shut

[Sally Roberts]

Marjorie Sims @ 18:31 - right on both counts and Daniel being so tall makes Mark look even shorter!

[Libertarian]

"Why is the polling station at leighton primary scholl closed at 9pm, I want to vote but can't its shut".

Polls close at 10pm so make an official complaint to the Returning Officer and phone your local papers.

[woodentop]

The story about the European Parliament buying 32 Smith Square is so old that if it was something in a fridge it would be growing mould and have to be thrown away before it started walking by itself!

[Sally Roberts]

I am a bit cautious about the result! I did a couple of hours phoning this evening and found a lot of people very annoyed because they had been called so many times and as a result were not going to vote after all! Still I suppose one always gets a few of those, especially later on in the day.

[Editor]

Truthy, woodentop, but it's only been confirmed tonight.

[Alan S]

The interesting thing ain't whether the Tories will win tonight but by how much the Tories will win. The more interesting thing is how Labour will react to defeat. Will Milburn or Charles Clarke openly say that Brown has to go?

[Tory Bear]

Thats Naweed Khan hugging Simon Hughes..

[Tory Bear]

what time does the live blog start?

[Editor]

Shortly after 10, Tory Bear...

[Richard Carey]

This may come as a dreadful shock to you, but not everyone looks at politics through the prism of parties, individuals or silly little bty-elections.

Apologies, Jon, if I drew some unwarranted conclusions from your post - but I make no apologies for seeing this campaign through the "prism" of the Party I work hard for, and I'm more then happy to dive in if I see us attacked from the Right as well as from the Left.

Fingers crossed (ball's in the air now!) for a good Conservative result tonight.

[Richard]

7000?! Awesome! I'm starting on the vodka now.

[Jill, London]

I've met Daniel Kawczynski and he's at least 6ft 7in - or slightly taller. [He's incredibly tall, dark and handsome.]

Thanks for the info about Sky News with the venerable Boulton on the by-election. And BBC2 [and I think BBC News 24] are also covering it from 12.50-2.40am. Or so Jon Sopel said on Sunday's "The Politics Show" as he's hosting the prog [makes a change from Dimblebore].

So hope the predictions are correct that Crewe will go blue.

[Henry Mayhew - ukipper speaking truth to toffs]

There's a big personality and punch in that average-sized Francois body. I had a fair few bolockings off him when he was my platoon sergeant in the TA and I'm 6'2".

[Mark]

Re: Simon Hughes... is Activist protecting the innocent from something unspeakable?

[Ken Stevens]

Comment on BBC website:

http://newsforums.bbc.co.uk/nol/thread.jspa?forumID=4842&edition=1&ttl=20080522225919

"Up until today I had intended to cast my vote, but all the negative campaigning and the sheer volume of utter rubbish that was forced through my letterbox daily for the last fortnight just made me weary of the whole thing so I spoiled my ballot paper.

The final straw was the mailshot we received at 4am this morning from the Conservatives. Well they lost my vote with that one."

Ah well, just a 6999 majority then :-)

[Prodicus]

Not jesting about Blair's plane: http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/world/middle_east/7415915.stm

[Prodicus]

Pickles says he thinks the Tories have a 47% share of the vote, Labour 30% and the Lib Dems 18%. "But that will change," he says.

As for turnout, he's saying it's around 50%.

(Guardian live blog)

[Neil Reddin]

Prodicus,

On an electorate of c.75,000 then, that's a 6,375 majority.

That'll do nicely.

[Will S]

Live link to This Week anybody?

[Ken]

Thats very close to my prediction - I need £500 to buy some petrol!!

[Peter O - Forecast UK]

I don't think the majority will be quite that big. Prob around 7.5% which is around 3,000 votes.

[Libertarian]

Those Pickles figures would give Timpson a majority of 6,500.

[Prodicus]

A Labour source says: "I think we're looking at a pretty massive Conservative win."

Pickles should look cheerful, but he doesn't. "I've been up since 4 o'clock," he explains when I ask why. "For politicians, elections are like a combination of Christmas Day and root canal surgery."

[Prodicus]

(That was the Graun, not me, btw)

[Andrew Lilico]

Pinaar predicting 7,800. If it's that big, then surely some Labour MP will seek to get the 71 votes needed for a challenge.

[Libertarian]

John Pienaar, at the count, is now estimating a Tory vote share of over 50% and majority of around 7,800!

[DBX]

Congratulations on a really terrific result. Timpson seems like a top notch candidate -- exactly the kind of person to bring new people (like me) into the party and broaden the base.

The result is also exactly what Labour deserves for their campaign. To try and run an "anti toff" campaign against a local family lawyer whose parents were foster parents to dozens of children is simply ridiculous and the voters knew it. It's as though they've mistaken Dr. Barnardo for Otis Ferry.

[mistakenly posted moments ago under the Scottish Tories entry]

[YMT]

How is the General election machine looking? CCHQ should give it tune up, rotate the tyre and polish the trim in my opinion. Need more web content, feeling a bit patch from Conservative, more You tube videos about who we are and what we are going to do, what parliament means and does, more Cameron more Boris, and how about a Timpson special you tube speech.

[James M]

Bye-bye Brown the baby eater

[Prentiz]

Rejoice rejoice!

[Henry Edward-Bancroft]

What a fantastic result! Not just a rejection of Brown's failing Labour Party but also a huge amount of hard work and dedication from CCHQ staff (who often get overlooked!) a really excellent campaign and lots and lots of support from MPs, Cllrs, and party members all over the country!

Least we forget Edward Timpson too - many congrats!!!

[Tony Makara]

Traditional Labour voters switching straight over to voting Conservative. Just shows what can happen when the party campaigns from the centre ground. Staying in the mainstream means staying in touch with how most people are feeling. Well done to Edward Timpson and his team. Today people are getting up and really starting to believe that we are close to seeing the end of this uncaring, lying and bullying government.

[Sam R]

Not much sleep last night.
A long wait for such a result as this, but it was well worth the wait.
Now, if Brown can hold on as NuLab leader until the General Election, he will be safe - if C & N is replicated across the country, there may not be 70 NuLab MPs left to force a leadership contest.
But wasn't Shenton such a pathetically poor loser, made the Pembrokeshire candidate appear, in comparison, gracious in her comments.

[Malcolm Dunn]

Fantastic resultmuch better than I thought. But remember everyone, a long wayto go before wecan really achieve anything to chang this country so no gloating!

[C List and Proud]

"The European Parliament and the European Commission have bought the former Tory headquarters near the Houses of Parliament for £20m."

I saw it earlier, does this mean that they saw the irony of it?
I think that the Conservative party should give them a house warming gift, perhaps a portrait of Mrs Thatcher that they can hang in the entrance hall?

And curse it like the picture in the hall at 13 Grimauld Place, so it can never be removed and every time somebody walks in, it shouts, "no, no, no!"

[Daniel Furr]

Bring on the local and European elections of 2009 now. Tories should look to smash Labour out of the European Parliament and make sure the election is a referendum on the EU Treaty.

[MolReaL]

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