Tories surge to 18% lead in first poll after 10p row

Breaking now on The Telegraph website.

9pm: More now at Telegraph.co.uk including the important news that the poll of more than 2,000 voters was largely completed before Brown's u-turn.

Comments

[Jennifer Wells]

The Tory lead is larger than the Lib Dem vote :-)

[Phil Whittington]

Brown must be feeling pretty sick that he didn't go to the country last Autumn.

I'm sure the polls will bob up and down in the natural course of events, but I don't think the Prime Minister will recover from this.

[RedSam]

You will have to tell me, where is this surge? Can you surge anywhere when you remain unchanged from the month before?

Surely the wider question is: why are the Tories not rising in the polls with every problem that the Govt faces?

[David Sergeant]

Just to note this is the sort of lead Blair used to have and "certain people" kept saying that lesser leads of a few months ago could only be improved to Blair's type of lead by reverting to the policies of the last two GEs.

[Afleitch]

An 18% lead was impressive over a decade ago. It is even more impressive today considering the advances in opinion polling.

[Halley]

All this makes this week's earlier Guardian poll showing the lead as only 5% all the more confusing, given the previous run of double-digit leads and the fact that Labour's fortunes have worsened, not improved, steadily. That lead looked way too low (as this is probably rather too high); everybody you speak to - not just Tories - is gloomy about the economy and staggered by Brown's political ineptitude. Was this just the Guardian finding a way of getting a friendly poll or is it a more accurate reflection? What are the canvassing returns showing for next week?

[David Jones]

Staggering! Shame the general election is in two years time and not next week!

[John Parkes]

They say that history never repeats itself exactly but there seems to be a gruesome inevitability about the political progression in this country. Conservatives falter. Conservatives are turned out by the electorate. Labour come in. Pursue a series of unworkable policies, leading to the edge of national bankruptcy. Labour turned out by the electorate. Conservatives return. Face a hard few years sorting out the Labour disaster and eventually do so; after which the cycle starts again. Let us make sure we break this pattern this time.

[Oberon Houston]

Fantastic news. A Labour Backbench panic is just round the corner - unbelievable. Election might be much earlier that we thought now.

[Votedave]

O joy! O rapture!

[Buckinghamshire Tory]

This is great news.

There is much work that still needs to be done to ensure victory at the next General Election, but I am certain that the end of oposition is drawing near.

[StevenAdams]

RedSam's comments are a wee bit desperate... to claim that an 18% lead is some kind of failure to make headway with the electorate is just sheer Brownite pigheadedness.

Polls aren't like a heart monitor that pops up and down with every beat, it's about continually plugging your message into the public domain and waiting for the it to reach the national consciousness.

Cameron's been doing that, showing people that Brown is inept and waaaaay overrated on the economy, that the governing party are divided and that this government has floundered.

Labour went to the polls in '97 with a very insubstantial manifesto. It promised nothing but change, which was what the public wanted. That's all it gave though. No direction, no philosophy, no core and principle and therefore muddled and rushed laws, policies and taxes that have all but destroyed the reputation of politics and Britain together.

18% is excellent, no two ways about it.

[woodentop]

This is fantastic news - but we need it to translate into a Boris Victory next Thursday - more hard work needed over the next few days!!

[John F Aberdeen]

An 18% lead just as we approach the local council and London mayoral elections is very good news.
DC and Tory HQ have played the 10p tax controversy very cleverly.
Some asked the question, "why didn,t they put up a fuss last year" well it was a time bomb under Nulab and the best time to explode a bomb is when it does the most damage and the best time is close to the elections next week.
CCHQ were the ones that came up with list of 5.3 million people on low pay etc who would be worse off.
That lit the fuse under many of the Labour MPS including many junior ministers and now Bottler etal prove to everybody that they are total incompetents and opportunists.
As for the Tories being the champions of the low paid, well we should be the champions of low tax for everyone, minimal government, personal independance and social justice.
I know many people are saying why doesn,t Dave and George Osborne come up with these clear alternatives however they are right to keep quite,, wait until Bottler calls a General Election then put forward the alternative.
In the meantime the current conservative councils and the added ones plus Boris as London Mayor after May 1st can carry out good conservative policies and reduce the council tax.
At least in England the conservatives are successful, have been leading in the polls, winning council elections and looking very much like a government in waiting.
Unfortunately in Scotland the last opinion poll show the conservatives down to 13%.
We need more of CCHQ,s brains up here, not the foolish people like the Tory MSP,s under Goldie who are taking part in the independance commission with my enemies, the labour and lib dem parties.

[RedSam]

Obviously I come at this with a pro-Labour slant (!) but primarily I did find the use of the word "surge" amusing, considering the poll suggests the Tories haven't moved at all!

We can argue what it means for the relative parties - the wording just made me smile :)

[Phil Whittington]

Mr David Cameron (Witney): With permission, Mr Speaker, I beg to move,

That this House has no confidence in Her Majesty's Government

[Tony Makara]

This is clearly a lead that Labour cannot hope to recover while Gordon Brown is leader. The Labour party now needs to be in the business of damage limitation and ensuring that they have enough MPs to mount a serious opposition after the next election.

[Matthew]

This is great news!

On a more annoyed note, I have to say the BBC continues to sicken me. They show one of the 7/7 bombers in his "farewell video". http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/england/7364628.stm

[Votedave]

I am predicting we will win the Crewe and Nantwich by-election by 2000/3000 votes on a low turnout, as per my post on UK Polling Report. This would be our first gain in a House of Commons by-election since Mitcham & Morden in summer 1982.

[Patriot]

Outstanding.

This result indicates that the three main parties share 87% of voting intentions - how long before the poll which reads Labour 16%, Lib Dem 17%, Conservative 54%?

My only genuine deep sadness is that come the next election it's going to be one hell of a job to repair the damage done since 1997 - quite staggering really. Just a few examples at random......

An illegal war
Uncontrolled immigration
£billions leaking every year via new quangos
Students (in England) now have to mortgage their futures to get to University
24 hour binge drinking
breakdown of the family
vast increase in licensed gambling
External debt quadrupled to $11 Trillion making us the second largest debtor nation in the world after the USA at $12 Trillion (we may overtake them later this year)
Pension funds pillaged for £5Bn a year
Gold reserves sold for a pittance
Children leaving school unable to read or write
NHS a basket case - 1 in 10 leave hospital sicker than when they went in.
Increasing numbers unable to afford dentists
Post Offices wiped off the map
Threatened closure of GP surgeries
Vast debts in off balance sheet PFIs (at least one of my dwindling county police stations has to pay £hundreds just to put up a notice board)
Servicemen being killed pointlessly because they don't have enough kit.
council taxes doubled - and more to come
vast increases in stealth tax
The entire military covenant broken
Billions wasted in meaningless projects -
NHS computer system etc etc
Break up of the United Kingdom
Sell out to the EU, signing up to the constitution

You could almost believe they've set out to destroy the country deliberately.

[Old Fashioned Tory!]

I still think we should be banging on about Europe - if we did I am sure we would be polling 80% of the vote.

[Patsy Sergeant]

I know one mustn't get too excited, but Whoopeeeeee!!

I was going to make this comment earlier today, but then got too busy! I think that one of the obstacles that this government has to being properly effective, is that so many MP's - Front bench members particularly, are more involved with BEING in Parliament, and BEING an MP, rather than forgetting about WHERE they have got to and just getting on with the job. Blears seems to be a good example of that, at yesterday's service for Stephen Lawrence, everybody looked suitably serious, except Blears, whose uncertain grin could almost have said, 'Fancy little me here!'.

[Andrew James]

Utterly and almost unspeakably stunning news.

With such enormous defecits, Labour must realize that the only way to recover is to get rid of Brown. From a Conservative perspective, it's essential that he stays put for as long as possible. The best outcome, of course, would be a vote of no confidence - but Labour know that they couldn't possibly win a general election at the moment.

Note that this result for Labour is even worse than their paltry 27.6% they won in 1983. UK Elect handsomely predicts:

Con 397
Lab 191
LD 31

MAJ 146

It is ESSENTIAL that we gain Crewe and Nantwich. This poll represents a swing of about 11.5% since the 2005 GE and we only need 7.5% in C&N.

[Paul 'The Machine' Seery]

I am so very happy with this opinion poll. May it turn next week into more Conservative Councils around the control, and the election of a new mayor of London in Boris Johnson.

[Conand]

Rejoice! Rejoice! Rejoice!

I was terrified the next poll was going to be bad. Our front bench team didn't seem to be putting the ball in the back of the net.
Its official now though, Cameron is the Tory Messiah. Bye bye zaNuLab councillors in England (they've already got less than the LibDems) bye bye.
We've got to work hard to get a chance to make this country better.

[Votedave]

Labour haven't sunk this low since September 1983, after Michael Foot had lost the general election.
Tory support didn't fall below 28% in the immediate wake of the poll tax riots.
It is the biggest Tory lead since October 1987.
YouGov overstated the Labour and LibDem share by 2% at the last general election. It could therefore be that the state of the parties is actually C 44, Lab 24, LD 15.

[Oberon Houston]

I predict:

1. Big Labour losses next week
2. PLP go nuts, egged on by Clarke et al
3. There is a leadership contest
4. Jack Straw wins
5. Massive reshuffle, Blairites back, Frank Field in, Reid back etc.
6. There is a snap election called for the Autumn
7. Labour run with Libs conceding proportional rep.

[James Burdett]

Oberon - 1,2 and 5 I will concede are highly likely. I think Labour could get crucified next week. I think that a lot of the rebellion this week was PLP members coming back from recess canvassing and realising that there seats were in dire jeopardy. I think when the local election results are known, the noises off will increase. I think Brown will stage a significant reshuffle in the Summer to try and regain momentum, the danger being that if it will probably be seen as a panic measure.

[Ben Surtees]

Great! But lots!... and i mean lots of work left to do, and of course, it's only one poll!

But a great bonus after a day's leafleting (and we dont have elections in my neck-of-the-woods for three years yet!).

[Margaret on the Guillotine]

Votedave 19.16 I hate to spoil it, but do not underestimate the determination of the Tory Party to muck up a by-election!

[Mr Hare]

I'm delighted if we're finally going to see the back of this rotten government but I worry that Cameron will now become cocky, complacent and cautious. I don't want any taking victory for granted. I want us to earn victory by preparing a programme that will change Britain and reverse Labour's failure. There's little radicalism from any Tory frontbencher as far as I can see.

[Dave B]

The Telegraph now have another article on this poll on their website,
Tory lead over Labour hits 21-year high.

[Editor]

Thanks Dave. I've added an update.

[Politico]

This is a labour deficit, not a tory lead. Complacency......

With labour's disaster, why are people not willing to cross over?

[John Leonard]

Tim:

Prof. Anthony King's take in the Telegraph gives more of the detail of the Yougov Poll. Its looking really dire for Brown....

Halcyon Days Of Labour Are Now Over

[EML]

Excellent news, but will the Telegraph hail Cameron as they did Brown when he was doing bugger all last year and getting around 13% leads?

[Malcolm Dunn]

No complacency.Brown had a big lead 6 months ago, I doubt he will get one again but we have seen how quickly the media narrative can change.
Interesting to see that few of the usual doom mongers have chosen to comment on this thread.

[Northernhousewife]

Even Kevin MacGuire couldn't spin this one.

'Cameron more unpopular than Churchill...etc'

[Jamie]

This poll rating is impressive. It wasn't that long ago that any dissatisfaction with the labour government would lead to an increase in support for the pointless Lib Dems. The work that DC has done decontaminating the Tory brand and sidelining the hard right-wingers deserves much of the credit for this change.

However Brown will almost certainly recover, at least to some extent. I suspect he'll be hoping for some kind of crisis like flooding or a terrorist incident, allowing him to demonstrate his ‘leadership skills’ like he allegedly did last summer and I suspect the media (i.e. BBC, guardian & shockingly pro-labour channel4 news) will probably buy it.

[graeme archer]

I hate to be Cassandra... But it's just one poll. Monday's YouGov for the Standard will determine london media momentum in the run up to Thursday... Livingstone all over the media doing his Hillary tearful human frailty act... We are starting from a huge huge base in the locals, most of which take place in labour heartlands... And we always **** up bye-elections. I'd love this poll on a happy 2 May... Just now I'd rather the 5 point lead, to keep all of us focussed on GOTV.

[Votedave]

"This is a labour deficit, not a tory lead. Complacency"

Who's being complacent? It's just that we've waited so long for some decent poll results! Feel free to smile - broadly!

[Tony Makara]

Votedave, you will remember the days, not too long ago when we took a battering here and in webcameron for saying that people should stick by David Cameron during the Brown bounce. Now DC has delivered, he has killed off Labour, they have no way back now! Hats off to David Cameron, our next prime minister!

[Matt Wright]

Brilliant news. 6 days left to finish the job off,

Matt

[David Cooper]

Re Crewe & Nantwich: forget Ealing, forget Sedgfield, this is time to cast the mind back to Ashfield and Stechford in the mid seventies. Why should any Labour seat be safe in a by election any longer?

[dirty europeansocialist]

Is this poll real though?
ICM had labour 5 points behind.
Which one is true. Who knows. I am patient.

[David (One of many)]

David, quite. Or in a standard election, come to think of it. The example I always use is Hazel Blears's Salford seat. At the last election, turnout was only 35%, and her majority is just under 8,000. Out of a total of some 65,000 voters, just 22,600 turned out to vote. Surely a committed Agent could find 8,000 people to vote Tory amongst the 42,000+ who didn't bother last time?

[Yet Another Anon]

1. Big Labour losses next week
2. PLP go nuts, egged on by Clarke et al
3. There is a leadership contest
4. Jack Straw wins
5. Massive reshuffle, Blairites back, Frank Field in, Reid back etc.
6. There is a snap election called for the Autumn
7. Labour run with Libs conceding proportional rep.
Signs had been that actually Labour's vote had been firming up, certainly the fiasco of the 10p rate will hit Labour especially (although MPs from a variety of sides seemed to be somewhat slow to react to it), certainly if Labour MPs were worried about things were going they would not push for an Autumn General Election, because in a landslide a lot of MPs would lose their seats, but Gordon Brown would not be among them. Charles Clarke has shown himself to be an out and out nutcase, an egomaniac who believes that he could lead Labour to victory.

Whatever happens, Labour is stuck with Gordon Brown, the Liberal Democrats have ditched 2 leaders since the General Election and have never really recovered from it and this would be even more the case for the Labour government, replacing one leader who had been in place for 10 years is one thing, but replacing the one that replaced him would be seen as incompetence and would be the one thing that could cause a total meltdown with Labour being reduced to being the third party.

John Reid has gone as a politician, I doubt he would accept a post if offered, he was fairly eager after Tony Blair went to announce he was going too and he is to stand down as an MP at the next General Election, a lot of skeletons fell out of his closet in the past couple of years such as stories of his time as an alcoholic, the find of drugs in his house and rumours that he had stalked Dawn Primarolo when she was a new MP, as well as his Communist past.

As for Jack Straw, one of the arguments against Gordon Brown was that it was thought that it might be a good idea for the leadership to go to a younger generation, Jack Straw is 4 years older than Gordon Brown and has been at the centre of much of policy making in Labour since the early 1990s, a lot of Labour voters especially Muslim Labour voters have become very suspicious of him over the past 10 years.

I wouldn't be surprised if Jack Straw were to announce that he was standing down from the government at the next General Election, I don't see him becoming Lord Straw, but equally I imagine that he realises that he is probably already at the high point of his political career.

Frank Field is one of these people who lots of people say is great until he is actually given any power, he manages both to agitate Labour MPs favourable towards welfare by coming out with solutions to time limit benefits and add workfare requirements, equally he is constantly saying that JSA rates are far too low as well as demanding pensions at high rates for all, Tony Blair and Gordon Brown both came to the conclusion that his proposals on the State Pension would have been hugely expensive - his pension plans could not all be funded by savings on the unemployed and would probably lead to a huge swelling in the welfare budget.

The next Local Elections won't be particularily fantastic for Labour, no doubt they will make losses in some areas and gains in others, the results in both the Local and European Elections in 2006 for Labour were extremely dismal for Labour, I suspect though that this time Labour may well get 30% of the vote and that whereas in the 1992-97 and 1997-2001 parliaments opinion polls have shown absurdly high beyond all belief levels of support for Labour and absurdly low levels of support for the Conservatives and if anything it was perhaps rather closer to being correct in the last parliament, that now when there are bad media reports on Labour they are tending to understate Labour support. I don't put much faith in opinion polls, pollsters always claim to have solved past apparent flaws, but they haven't said exactly how they now how reluctant a particular parties supporters may be to support that party, how exactly they quantify it, indeed a lot of the assumptions opinion polls make seem to be based on opinion themselves.

I don't think that Labour would win an overall majority now, equally though I don't think they would have won an overall majority in a snap General Election last Autumn because the figures bore no relation to reality, it was about a short term fashion for novelty, call an election anyway and it would have been cutting and running and Labour would have been punished for it.

I expect that the Conservatives will probably get over 40% in the Local Elections and will make gains though mainly off the Liberal Democrats.

Of course the Conservatives got marginally under 40% in the 2004 Local Elections, but only 32.3% in the General Election the following year, Labour got 26% in the Local Elections, 22% in the European Elections and 35.2% the following year in the General Election. I still expect there to be a Super Thursday on 11 June 2009 with Local, European and General Elections on the same day.

[Deborah]

Our streets are dangerous and our hospitals are filthy
(But they've been like that for a while)
What's new?...
The banking system is a mess
The housing market is a mess
The tax system is a mess
This is not a Tory surge. "It is the economy, stupid."

[Edison Smith]

If the audience on Question Time was anything to go by, Ken Livingstone is Ghandi whose imminent victory in May will be bring eternal happiness to mankind, Labour have reduced crime into non-existence annd Brown is the best PM since sliced bread....

The BBC are a disgrace.

[Gloy Plopwell]

I'm delited and releived that we are surviving these Tory figures. 17% is better than 11%. Lib dems have a carismatic leader in Nick Cleg. We have stupendous momentum for victory in the General election. We're on our way.

[RedSam]

Too easy to blame the BBC - given the current political climate, and the polling, if only you had got yourselves a decent candidate, one who Cameron wouldn't have to abandon mid-campaign unless he cocks something up, you might be well on the way to winning next week.

Noone to blame but yourselves and Boris.

[David]

According to the analysis in the Telegraph, an eighteen point lead would only translate into a relatively modest majority of fifty seats, which highlights the extent to which the electoral system currently works against the Conservatives.

[ChrisD]

"According to the analysis in the Telegraph, an eighteen point lead would only translate into a relatively modest majority of fifty seats"

Considering where we are just now, that will do nicely. Fantastic polling figures!

[Goldie]

Well, let me be the first to boldly predict that Boris Johnson will NOT be elected mayor of London and this will look pretty bad for team Cameron.

[B.Garvie]

Be cautious. There are still plenty of twists and turns (Labour spin) before polling day. This 18 point lead must now be consolidated with a good push, promoting sensible policies and the need to show compassion towards those low paid in our communities.

[Chad Noble]

Excellent poll.

It's so bad that Brown even has an even harder job of turning this around than Mad Malc has of getting people interested in advertising in TotalPoolitics ;-)

I thought Boris was poor on QT though, and he poses some risk for you.

[Serf]

It is ESSENTIAL that we gain Crewe and Nantwich. This poll represents a swing of about 11.5% since the 2005 GE and we only need 7.5% in C&N.

If it wre held the same day as Henley, would it help us?

Complacent, me?

[Mike]

Splendid news. Three points.

1 The Labour core vote is now below 30%. Even their loyalists are deserting them.

2 This poll does not mention the proportion of people 'certain to vote'. In other polls the figures are much higher for us than for Labour which adds significantly to the lead.

3 Osborne is right not to be offering economic alternatives at this stage. I realise this means that we will have to wait for a bigger 'fanbase' but a) why invite the spotlight to turn away from the Labour train wreck? and b) he has no idea what kind of mess he might inherit. Only a fool would commit to a policy today which may be totally inappropriate come the next election.

[Chad Noble]

Brown will be hoping:

#1 Ken wins. After Boris' embarrassing performance last night, could happen. Boris really didn't look like this was the job he was most passionate about did he? He was being mocked all round. (and I say this as someone who wants him to win).

#2 Tory civil war next year over EPP and not offering a post-ratification referendum.

However, a Boris victory is not essential, but #2 could be a decider.

[David Belchamber]

"Well, let me be the first to boldly predict that Boris Johnson will NOT be elected mayor of London and this will look pretty bad for team Cameron".

Posted by: Goldie | April 25, 2008 at 04:06

I want a conservative to win but on last night's form Boris does not deserve to.

So the conservatives have to translate into action the momentum indicated by the latest poll. That means good wins in the council elections and a win in the by-election.

[black country lad]

Tories 18 points ahead or labour 18 points behind.

here in the sunny Black Country people are anti govt but not anti labour party (as people were anti-tory in the 1990's)

people want to give the govt a kicking but not rushing to vote for us - next thursday will be very interesting

[Yet Another Anon]

According to the analysis in the Telegraph, an eighteen point lead would only translate into a relatively modest majority of fifty seats, which highlights the extent to which the electoral system currently works against the Conservatives.
If at a General Election the national figures were Conservative 44% Labour 26% Liberal Democrat 17% then I rather suspect that actually the majority would be of over 150 - the Liberal Democrats might manage to hold onto as many as 40 seats, Labour would go way down though below 200 seats, the Conservatives would probably break through 400 seats, it does depend a lot on tactical voting, however the likliehood of a such a result in the next 10 years is virtually nil, in the longer term I would say it was quite probable at some stage in the future once the Labour government finally collapses.

I'm delited and releived that we are surviving these Tory figures.
The Conservatives figures are higher, but not much higher than in 2004 and Labour have been showing way lower, in the last parliament the Liberal Democrats were almost hitting 30% in Local Elections in the last parliament so I would assume that you are really spoofing Liberal Democrats.

[m dowding]

http://labouroutlook.labourhome.org questioning the appointement of David Pitt-Watson meeting by Labour today. Methinks he is not going to take the job. Would you?

[Yet Another Anon]

people want to give the govt a kicking but not rushing to vote for us - next thursday will be very interesting
Of course in 1983 Labour got 35% of the vote in the Local Elections before getting 27.5% in the General Election; under William Hague 36-38%, under Michael Howard it briefly almost hit 40% and actually the results under David Cameron had been very similar and similar amounts for Labour under Neil Kinnock in the 1980s. In the late 1960s and in the late 1970s the Conservatives were getting a way higher vote in Local Elections and were winning parliamentary by-elections.

If it wre held the same day as Henley, would it help us?
I think that is impossible to say, it might focus pressure on the Conservative candidates, in Bromley & Chislehurst it ended up being a very close run thing, if things go well it might miss the chance to spread the publicity, equally if either Labour or the Liberal Democrats do very well in Crewe & Nantwich and UKIP do well in Henley then having it on one day might avoid spreading the bad publicity.

Of course Boris Johnson will not resign his seat unless he becomes Mayor and he has a history of delaying doing things as well, he promised to stand sown as Editor of the Spectator when in the Shadow Cabinet and left that a very long time.

There are arguments for him waiting until the General Election to stand down anyway as MP, because increasingly the General Election isn't so far off so why inflict an unneccessary ballot on people, he might be best to leave it until there are other elections in the area and as he hasn't gone for the Bob Dole strategy of I'm heading for the White House or I'm going home then that probably wouldn't be until next year.

[Yet Another Anon]

Ken wins. After Boris' embarrassing performance last night, could happen. Boris really didn't look like this was the job he was most passionate about did he? He was being mocked all round. (and I say this as someone who wants him to win).
If Boris won and made a complete hash of being Mayor then Gordon Brown could both look forward to replacing Red Ken as the Labour candidate and use Boris as a stick to beat David Cameron with, as Donald Rumsfeld once famously said there are a lot of things we know we don't know.

[Christina Speight]

Read the poll properly please! Apart from the actual headline "lead" (which is usually misleading until the last week) everything else points to a collapse in approval for Brown and his government. But this is accompanied by no parallel swing TO the Tories - just look at the figures for who will handle the economy better. The great beneficiaries are "Neither of them?.

Until Cameron can give us a 'vision' a 'theme' a 'picture' of the Britain he will lead us to one must assume he will merely tinker at the edges of what Labour is doing while leaving our real government unhindered and unreformed in Brussels.

In due course the election will prove a great deal about the respective merits of the polling methods of the four main pollsters. ICM (telephone) is much more favourable to Labour while YouGov (internet) is more favourable for the Tories. They also have different - published - criteria for weighting their crude original results.

In most elections the polls converge the nearer one gets to polling dcay. But with local elections upon us this clearly is not happening yet.

[Bexie]

National Prediction: CON majority 156
Party 2005 Votes 2005 Seats Pred Votes Tactical Swing Pred Seats
CON 33.24% 208 44.00% 2.00% to LIB 403
LAB 36.21% 347 26.00% 5.00% to LIB 182
LIB 22.65% 66 17.00% 0.00% to LAB 35

from election calculus with 2% tac voting from Tory and 5% tac voting from Labour...

BBC Election Calculator shows better

CON overall majority: 246
SEATS WON
LAB 131
CON 446
LIB DEM 38
OTH 31
RESULTS TABLE
Party Seats + - Net
LAB 131 0 272 -272
CON 446 281 0 +281
LIB DEM 38 5 18 -13
OTH 31 5 1 +4

With Hoon, Becket, Jowell and Hewett losing their seats.

Incidently how about a SNP victory in Broon's seat?

[Yet Another Anon]

under William Hague 36-38%, under Michael Howard it briefly almost hit 40% and actually the results under David Cameron had been very similar
For the Conservatives that is.

ICM (telephone) is much more favourable to Labour while YouGov (internet) is more favourable for the Tories.
Both telephone and internet polls will leave out a lot of people, even apart from the many people who refuse to take part in any such surveys.

[Tony Makara]

I know a lot of Labour supporters and it frustrates me when they say they are absolutely not going to vote Labour but still won't consider voting Conservative. The feeling I get is that many see a Labour defeat at the next GE as being a purifying process by which the Labour party can move away from the 'sleaze,n,spin' years. Another interesting thing is that Labour supporters don't see David Cameron as being a 'Thatcher' so they don't feel too threatened by the idea of a Cameron government. So its pretty obvious that Labour's support has gone, but it hasn't gone to the Liberals or made the great leap of faith into Conservatism. The Labour vote wants a Labour government, but not this particular Labour government.

[Mike T]

Indeed, 18% is momentus. I watched PMQ this week and Cameron tore Brown a new one (again).

The public are catching on that this government are finished, the 10p tax problem was a simple issue to grasp and Labour blew it. There's the 42 days detention and also the 1st May.

Last night, enjoying my daily unwind after work, their was a knock on the door..

"Hello, I'm from the Labour party.."

I stopped her dead in his tracks. A prissy looking slip of a thing, kind of an Yvette Cooper type only 10 years younger, all duffel coat and thick black glasses.

"Wonderful!"

She smiled thinking she was on safe territory, which I followed with..

"Have you come round to apologise?"

The look on her face was a picture.

[Sean Fear]

"According to the analysis in the Telegraph, an eighteen point lead would only translate into a relatively modest majority of fifty seats, which highlights the extent to which the electoral system currently works against the Conservatives"

That's wrong. It would give the Conservatives a 154 seat majority, on the basis of uniform national swing. In reality, it might be a bit more or a bit less than that, but it would be well over 100.

[Chad Noble]

btw am I the only one to find this 'LATER/PREVIOUS COMMENTS' split that stops the links working in the 'recent comments' really annoying?

[Mark]

Note that Scottish polls show the Consevatives being squeezed by the SNP. This is dispiriting. Of course there are a lot of reasons for this, which no doubt your experienced party minds are weighing up as to how best to tackle. Goldie already has got the Conservatives rated by Scots as best on crime and drugs, so why no breakthrough?

For what its worth, personally I'd love to see the Conservatives in Scotland taking the lead on fighting wind farms to win back the rural areas. Even if you really believe in AGW, clearly wind farms aren't the answer, and they are deeply unpopular in Scotland.

Also it would be nice to see the Conservatives tabling something in Holyrood thanking the tremendous efforts of Edinburgh's regiment when it comes home from Basra next month (that's home from downtown Basra by the way, not from the air base).