Tories 16% ahead!

The Tories' post-Budget lead hasn't been consolidated in the latest YouGov poll for The Sunday Times...  It has grown!

The Conservatives are now 16% ahead.  They were 14% ahead two weeks ago.

If you're looking for an explanation you're spoilt for choice.  Dithering over the Olympics was undoubtedly a contributing factor but our favoured explanation has to be the party of the poor deciding to increase tax on the poor.  You're in trouble Mr Brown and you deserve to be.

There are also rumours of a MORI poll for The Observer that suggests Boris Johnson is on course to beat Ken Livingstone but we haven't had chance to confirm that yet.

Comments

[Edison Smith]

Not sure when the sample was taken, but I think a lot of people will have seen our excellent PEB last week, and been impressed.

[NickinLondon]

Yipee!

I agree with Mugabe, Brown is a small dot in the world and just like the dot com bubble burst, so will he. very soon.

[Gregor]

That's improved my mood considerably!

[Gordon Dudgeon]

How long will this thread go, before someone writes in to say " 16% ? That's still not good enough ? Should be much more than that !" I say before midnight.

[bluepatriot]

The danger with all of this is that it will push Brown out and Labour will choose a more electable leader. I'd rather Labour died slowly and we defeated them by stealth.

[nobody]

A majority of 128!

[Praguetory]

Zing - chimes with what's going on on the ground. Here in Brum resources are currently being diverted from the softest targets to the stretch targets. If there's no change in the national picture, we could be looking at a genuine breakthrough.

[Bill]

Great news! When I hear some of my pals who remain new Labour supporters hoping that Blair will make a return to salvage the mess it makes me think that we have a really good chance of victory.

[Editor]

Extra numbers from YouGov:

60% agree that Brown dithers; only 26% call him "decisive".

57% say he is "floundering"; only 14% believe the PM is "in control of events".

[Jack Stone]

What is stupid about this site is that give it five minutes and you will get the usual crowd on saying that Cameron`s got it wrong and we should be promising tax cuts, a halt to immigration and withdrawal from Europe.
When will the looney tunes realise that Dave`s got it right. His way is the way to get Labour, Brown and all his cronies out of power.Your way is the way to make sure they all stay where they are!

[Mike Routhorn]

Personally I'm baffled that the Labour score is still as high as 28% given the way this government has alienated just about everyone.

Does anyone know about the percentages of people 'certain to vote' as the last poll which put us 6% ahead (for the Guardian I think) translated as a 16 point lead.

[Tony Makara]

Will a 16% lead be enough to make Louise Bagshawe relax? Absolutely not, And quite right too! I'm glad we've got someone like Louise around to make sure that nobody gets too complacent. This is good news, but should be an incentive to push even harder for the change that our country needs. As Harry Phibbs said yesterday, get writing letters, e-mails, get phoning in to your local radio station, keep heaping the misery on this rotten corrupt government.

[Editor]

A new Ipsos MORI poll on the Mayoral race.

[DavidRHayes]

Well the thing is, Mike, about 25-26% of voters would vote for a hat stand if it wore a red rosette.

You honestly wouldn't believe some of the rubbish I hear from them about the Conservatives. Some of them think that Thatcher came to power in 1988! Largely people in my own age group (the under 25s).

[m dowding]

This is splendid. On top of holding a Ward seat for Herefordshire on Thursday and whipping (yeah, yeah,I know they enjoy that) the LibDums to boot! A good week but still The Country continues to decline under this Socialist yoke. Did you hear that smug Alan Johnson on "any questions". Heaven help us.
Anyway, you know my take on opinion polls. Some are in the gift of Labour. They rig ballots, so pollsters are easy to fix, ergo this is much bigger than appears! However, MAY IS the Time. Boris to win Mayoralty and Labour to lose virtually every council seat in the land! Now that will show where the next general election will develop.

[Mike Routhorn]

David, true enough. But I wonder, how many people, especially those who have been treated to the recent tax hike, are going to summon up the enthusiasm to put an X in the box on the big day.

[Dan]

m dowding - the Herefordshire result was the one that you nearly lost wasn't it and the Lib Dems went up?:
Herefordshire UA, Old Gore – Conservatives hold
Con 422 (37.9; -8.1), Ind 401 (36.0; -1.8), LD 241 (21.7; +5.4), Green 49 (4.4; +4.4).

Turnout 46%. Last fought 2007

[Yet Another Anon]

Some of them think that Thatcher came to power in 1988! Largely people in my own age group (the under 25s)
Some people still think she is PM, even during her time as PM a surprising percentage of people apparently didn't know she was PM with many thinking Jim Callaghan or Edward Heath was still PM.

Given time and many may think she was the first woman to go into space or walk on the moon or something.

I had a Geography teacher back in the mid 1980s who thought that the Conservatives came to power in the 1983 General Election - many old and young pay little attention to what is going on in the real world.

[rightwingery]

m dowding - A councillor should not post cretinous comments on a widely read forum like this.

[David Sergeant]

"You honestly wouldn't believe some of the rubbish I hear from them about the Conservatives. Some of them think that Thatcher came to power in 1988!"

When will the Conservative party wake up to the fact that for about 15 years British politics have been dominated by myths, usually about the Conservative governments, perpetrated by Labour and the media in general. (That would also include media usually seen as right wing.) It happened because, for whatever reasons, the Conservatives made little attempt to defend themselves or put the record straight. I would even suspect a lot of votes were lost simply because the Conservatives were seen as not defending themselves even if an issue wasn't one of their better efforts - Tories can tend to be robust, just keep reading this site!

That would explain some of the 28% Labour support and also why we are not 20% ahead. Surely it would not be too difficult to find out what people are believing and do something about it.

[Yet Another Anon]

m dowding - the Herefordshire result was the one that you nearly lost wasn't it and the Lib Dems went up?
Local by-elections have such small electorates that a couple of families moving house can result in apparent landslides in percentage vote, the Liberal Democrats have successfully targeted safe Labour council wards where a new housing estate has been built and that has swung it for them, plus the turnout tends to drop even more sharply than for parliamentary by-elections and personalties known locally can have all kinds of results - I've not seen much analysis of such among those number crunching Local by-elections.

[m dowding]

Goodness me! We won in Herefordshire again. I'm not a Councillor and what was cretinous about my post? Why are there LibDums here? ConservativeHome is my spiritual home. Back to Guido I go, sorry for being born!
As for our HOLDING the seat in Herefordshire, it was fantastic to do so and very hard work for all concerned. Well done everybody.

[Moral monotony]

What? only 44%.
Boy George should be fired.

[Margaret on the Guillotine]

Jack Stone, it's not so much the looney toons thinking that it's all about tax cuts and Europe (and bringing God into the public realm, though that does wind me up beyond belief), but it's them thinking that this neo-Thatcherite Government has been "socialist" in any way, shape or form. The 10% abolition shows it's nothing of the sort.

Too much complacency on that front and there stand to be deserved net losses on May 1. And the less said about the "How-can-anyone-think-of-voting-for-this-bunch-of-Marxists" dogma the better.

Rule no. 1 of campaigning: don't slag off floating voters who didn't go for you last time. Maybe the British people get it right in this democracy doo-dah. And there's still plenty of time for it to go 44:28 the other way.

[Jim Tague]

On the back of this news, might some kind soul offer advice on what to state on a last minute Get Out The Vote postcard we are about to use in the North East.

We have some ideas...like adding the latest poll result, but we have no wish to patronise voters with "we're in the lead, nah, nah".

I don't know, something like "people just like you are turning to the Conservatives to provide the answers, make your vote really count vote for Blogs..."

Any help gratefully accepted - thanks.

[Jim Tague]

On the back of this news, might some kind soul offer advice on what to state on a last minute Get Out The Vote postcard we are about to use in the North East.

We have some ideas...like adding the latest poll result, but we have no wish to patronise voters with "we're in the lead, nah, nah".

I don't know, something like "people just like you are turning to the Conservatives to provide the answers, make your vote really count vote for Blogs..."

Any help gratefully accepted - thanks.

[Praguetory]

Jim - I'm the agent for a candidate in a seat where we are currently fourth. I don't think that the latest poll result is a good idea.

What do you think of this?

'As the number of Conservative councillors on Birmingham City Council continues to increase there is a growing momentum, both locally and nationally, in favour of the Party. This is the first opportunity for you to have your say since Gordon Brown took over the running of the country. There is a real opportunity for change, but it can only happen of Conservative supporters get out and vote.'

[Poll Day for Windows (18)98!]

Jim, no don't put a complacent poll number on there. Just stick to saying what you want to do. No negativity, no complacency. The Cameron formula basically.
This poll is great news. Locally we're shooting for a town that hasn't been Conservative since..er.. I don't know when, Disraeli probably.

[Gloy Plopwell]

Even when the Tories are this high, we lib dems are keeping 17%. It's stupendous because it's better than the 11 of last october. Underlying it all, the momentum is with us Lib Dems, we are on our way! There's just enough time to win the election in 2 years time.

[Andrew]

Immigration. Tax. Cost of living. Economic crisis. Teenagers with knives. All met by the liberal political and media class by indifference. Which leads to resentment. And so now a landslide.

Tax rate for billionaires: 0%
Tax rate for single mothers on 14k: 20%

Brown: never was elected - never will be.

( Between Keeley Hawes and Rick Astley, a Tory government would crown the biggest 80s revival since, well, every one since 1990. :-))

Forgive my unseemly jubilation!

I was researching Spencer Perceval (Tory) because I wondered if, since he was assassinated, he had spent less time in power than Gordon will. He served 5+ years, so I was wrong. What is the record for the shortest time in office, not counting 'acting' PMs?

[Buckinghamshire Tory]

Indeed Gloy Plopwell, with a number like 17% you should return to your constituency and prepare for government.

[Patsy Sergeant]

Now that is a nice round figure to come back to! Yippee!

I was reading the comments on Political Betting earlier today, which were speculating on Brown going, and for what reasons, but nobody seems to have picked up a small item that was in a paper sometime in the last week, that speculated that Brown's sight was deteriorating!.......

[Yet Another Anon]

Nick Clegg is right on course to remain Shadow Leader of the Opposition, as usual for the Liberal Democrats - 2 steps forward, 3 steps back and in the case of Charles Kennedy fall face down on the floor.

[ColinW]

I wonder if the Tory share might go down when people find out that Cameron’s backing of NuLab over al-Yamamah is not entirely unrelated to :

1. the £550,000 Wafic Said (who brokered the al-Yamamah deal ) gave to Cameron recently?

2. the fact that the deal was originally fixed up under the Thatcher junta, with the involvement of the completely non-corrupt Mark Thatcher?

[Dale]

"What is stupid about this site is that give it five minutes and you will get the usual crowd on saying that Cameron`s got it wrong and we should be promising tax cuts, a halt to immigration and withdrawal from Europe"

5 HOURS later, I think its safe to say you were wrong.

"Jack Stone, it's not so much the looney toons thinking that it's all about tax cuts and Europe"

I'm sure I could forgive your stupidity in thinking that the term is 'loony TOONS' if 'loony TUNES' had not been written there in black and white.

The stupidity of a person thinking the successor to 'merry melodies' and predecessor to'silly symphonies' is 'loony toons' is unfortunate, but the stupidity of someone that can not even read the difference between 'tunes' and 'toons' is worrying.

[ChrisD]

Good poll, as all ways at this time in the electoral cycle, it is just a snap shot of the public's mood rather than an indicator of the result of the next GE.
But its very welcome, it will cause worry and concern in the PLP and this will feed into the public narrative of a government in serious trouble and decline
If this type of Conservative poll lead continues with the Labour party continuing to drop under the 30% barrier, I would expect it to have a similar destabilising effect on the Labour party comparable to the run up to the Conference season last year when we were facing an Autumn election with Labour riding high in the polls.
The Labour party have considerable more MP's whose jobs could be looking very vulnerable in a future GE, it will be interesting to see how they react when faced with the first real possibility of defeat in 10 years.

[Chappers]

I completely agree with David Sergeant's comments above. The 1979-97 governments achieved an enormous amount; yes, some parts of the country didn't fare well during those years but imagine what the whole country would have been like without the wholesale economic record of the 1979-97 period. Brown was gifted a fantastic economic inheritance in 1997 and there is a massive amount of misinformation among the electorate about the actual Tory record.

What sickens me about the media and to an extent our party's form during these years in opposition is that Brown has been allowed to get away with a reputation for economic competence. Recently we've seen better efforts to highlight Brown's reckless borrowing, stealth taxation and squandering of the public finances. I'm all in favour of Cameron's positive approach of proposing good policy ideas, sending out new messages and opening up the debate instead of merely criticising the government - we wouldn't have these polling figures without Cameron's positivity and his grasp of the broad direction the party needs to move in. That said, at times I do wish we'd been more exacting in our criticism of the government: during the Northern Rock crisis, for example; and every time in the Commons that a Conservative member is taunted for "voting against such and such a measure" - why oh why can't the recipient of these empty jibes hit back with reasons like "we didn't support it because that legislation was fundamentally flawed because .... etc"?

I am massively excited by the events of the last few weeks; if Boris can win in London and follow up the victory with a no-nonsense, intelligent administration, that will be an invaluable boost to our chances at the next election. In 2006 and 2007 we ran sensible, fresh and deliverable local election campaign pledges which brought fantastic results; if we do the same again I'm sure we can put in a good performance on May 1.

The polls show the momentum is with us. We set the agenda. Brown's government is illegitimate, tired and deceitful enough to continue to wreck the electorate's trust in our politicians. We need to keep up our good work and focus on refining our ideas and our offering to the electorate in order to give us the best chance of beating Brown with a sufficient share of the vote to comfortably avoid Brown contriving a deal with the Lib Dems.

[Robbie]

I wonder how many more polls like this Labour can take before they remove Gordon Brown as captain of their sinking ship? Lets hope they stick with him a bit longer and Labours ratings go down even further! About 6 months ago, we were seeing the glass roof of 40%, I wonder if in 6 months time we will be seeing the glass roof of 50%? I cannot wait for the Brown and his moronic buffoons to be removed finally!

[Oberon Houston]

Just listening to Adam Boulton and they are discussing Brown.... Nick Soames summed things up pretty well regarding Brown...

'when all the leader writers are getting ripped into you, all of them across the board, things are really bad.'

Its amazing, to me, just how long its taken for people to rumble him - Tom Bower's fantastic biography, 1st edition 2005, had him nailed, yet the leaders took three years to follow. Suppose its about momentum really - well its up and against him now. Good. Osborne on now...

[Oberon Houston]

Right, just listened to Osborne on Adam Boulton, and I'm livid.

When the f*** are we going to get our story straight on the 'what would you do then?', line. Its simple but we can't seem to hit it, so here it is for free:

Line of questioning and answers go something like this:

Interviewer:
Sum up the current state of the government.

Shadow Chancellor:
Bad, taxes are too high, inflation is high on essentials like food and peoples mortgages are worryingly expensive...blah blah..

Interviewer:
So you want to cut taxes, how would you pay for that?

----
CURRENT LINE:
Shadow Chancellor:
Um, well I can't say that just now so far away from an election. Um um.

Interviewer:
So people just have to trust you do they?
-----

MY LINE:

Look, the tax system and public finances are complex and cannot be transformed overnight. The Labour Government inherrited a strong economy and have benefited from fantastic global growth (which was nothing to do with them), however now that they cannot shelter behind a global boom, the wheels are coming off. This is because of their high taxation and poor public service policies across the board. It will take many years of work to fix that. However over time we will reduce taxation for ordinary people, but crucially, by running the country better can we do that without harming public services. Its called sharing the proceeds of growth. We have made this position very clear for a long time now, indeed Gordon Brown has attacked it, showing the clear difference between us and Labour.

This is the way it is, our whole manifesto is integrated into that aim, better policies will mean better public services, better public finances and then lower taxes, something Labour & Gordon Brown have said isn't possible. We believe it is.
----

[Andrew Morrison]

To obtain a lead as impressive as this, the Conservatives must be getting the North of England, Scotland and Wales back at long last. I hope so anyway. The last thing we need is getting in, but only thanks to a handful of regions belonging to one country in the Union - that would play right into the hands of nationalist of every sort.

Brown & Co will need kryptonite to turn this around.

[Cllr Tony Sharp]

Jack Stone: "When will the looney tunes realise that Dave`s got it right."

I do not completely share your view on this. I really think a lot of the Labour poll slump is people unhappy with Labour rather than happy with the Conservatives.

Some of the people around Cameron thought the polls vindicated their approach before Ealing Southall. The numbers are soft at the moment so we should take nothing for granted.

We can make the numbers more firm when we put some meat on policy bones and listen to voters' concerns about tax, immigration and the EU. Just because they are old topics that we raised before their time at the last election does not mean they are not appropriate this time around.

[Andrew Morrison]

Attn: Oberon Houston

Yes, you are right, Gordon Brown DID inherit a strong economy. From 1993 onwards Britain had steady growth, low inflation and reasonable interest rates, not 1997.

What amazes me is how Labour used to beat it's chest about how great the British economy is, and how we should all be ever-thankful to them for that, but now the economy is taking a downturn the problem is attributed to an international level.

It can't work both ways. Osborne wanted to be saying that.

[asquith]

Dismiss the Lib Dems at your peril. We could easily go over 20% in the actual election.

[David Bodden]

The results of the local elections have already been decided and nuLieBore did fine. The only shocking thing is that they haven’t been leaked out before now.

After the 2005 general election I found it difficult to find anyone who would admit to voting for them. They have previous form for fiddling figures as long as your arm; an election is no different.

[Votedave]

"Even when the Tories are this high, we lib dems are keeping 17%. It's stupendous because it's better than the 11 of last october."

Oh please Gloy Plopwell. Stop these silly posts every time a poll is published. Your party got 22% at the last election. To decribe a 5% drop in support as stupendous is the only accurate deduction I have seen you make.

[Stewart Buchanan]

From The Times: "With Tony Blair as prime minister and Mr Brown as chancellor, the government was formidable." Anyone know what the hell they're on about?

[Pete]

16% is not a big enough lead over this pathetic government.

Cameron`s got to promise tax cuts, a halt to immigration and withdrawal from the collosal folly of membership of the EU.

[Felixstowe Fiddler]

16% ahead. Wonderful -
But 16% ahead in Scotland, Wales, northern England, the Black Country? Stop dreaming and get real - unless inroads are made into these Labour heartlands, the election cannot possibly be won. It's no use piling up votes in the deep south, the outer London suburbs and East Anglia.
The 10p tax abolition is undoubtedly hurting Brown, but there will be two Budgets before the next election to get it right.
If Labour axed Brown, who'd take over? Ed Balls would be great - an unelectable loud mouth who wouldn't dare (you bet!!( put wife Yvette in the Cabinet because they would not be allowed to claim double expenses on their mortgaged homes.
The one we should fear is Alan Milburn. The rest are pygmies.
c

[Mike Routhorn]

Felixstowe Fiddler, there may very well be two budgets before the next election but there's no money in the cupboard.

The last budget even found time to mention carrier bags for goodness sake.

And we're told that rescinding the descision about the 10p tax band would cost billions so they won't do it.

The only thing I expect to see before now and the election is ever more government borrowing and a very disgruntled public sector as they are asked to take piddly pay increases so that Darling can pay lip service to the concept of a balanced budget.

[David Belchamber]

Oberon Houston at 11.00:

"This is because of their high taxation and poor public service policies across the board. It will take many years of work to fix that. However over time we will reduce taxation for ordinary people, but crucially, by running the country better can we do that without harming public services".

How depressingly right; I say depressingly, because many of us on ConHome have been reiterating the same thoughts for a very long time without making an impression.

Even more depressing is that I believe we already have people like Redwood, Fallon, possibly Rifkind, and no doubt others who could give a much more convincing reply to such questions, very much along the lines of what you say. People would then gradually see that huge savings could be made in expenditure and without harming public services at all.

In fact, if they were run half competently, they would actually improve at no extra cost.

[The coolest cat in town]

I do not see how the less recession you have the more unpopular you are.
The greatest tory PM (AKA Thatcher) has two recessions. This one has had none in 10 years as PM and chancellor. So who is the greatest yep the UK public say Thacther Go figure.
No wonder Westlife and Boyzone did so well.

[Jake]

"To obtain a lead as impressive as this, the Conservatives must be getting the North of England, Scotland and Wales back at long last. I hope so anyway. The last thing we need is getting in, but only thanks to a handful of regions belonging to one country in the Union - that would play right into the hands of nationalist of every sort "
Andrew Morrison.

You are completely wrong on this Andrew. Regretfully,your post is redolent with the aura of a relieved Tory party riding back into power only on the unpopularity of the incumbent government and then sagging into an ancien regime/buggins turn/more of the same/mode.
There is a better way than merely "its our turn now ". The mentality of "lets get back to the world as it was before 1914" didn't work in the early 1920's and it won't work now. The world of the UK prior to before the Scotland Act of 1998 has gone and we must face it.

What we should now do is to commit the Conservatives, on election, to fundamental parliamentary reform and thus to capitalise on the widespread disenchantment, some would say disgust, with parliament and the political process.
This should include a referendum in England on an English Pariament with the same powers and competencies as the Scottish Pariament.It should openly herald a move to an effectively federal United Kingdom. It should be combined with proposals to slim down the size of the British Pariament and its transformation to what it should always have been ie effectively a British Grand Committee. Such a set of proposals is both logical and fair and will apeal throughout the United Kingdom . In particular it will appeal in those areas of England which will never otherwise suport the Conservatives in any substantial numbers. Contributors are kidding themselves if they think that the Conservatives will make much by way of inroads into Northern Labour areas simply by pushing existing Conservative themes. There has to be something altogether else and this is it. The North East of England has long been rock solid for Labour yet has demonstrated that it can reject Labour when it wants to,eg the 2004 North Eastern Referendum on regionalisation which they threw out by a 74% majority against.

16% is gratifying but the Conservatives should not be satisfied with figures like this. Blair saw the need not to be satisfied with merely good numbers but absolutely to maximise his party's poll lead and he did so. It is good tactics to venture boldly onto the constitutional front. It is also profoundly democratic and will be rewarded in the polling booths.

[Malcolm Dunn]

Jake, if we have a 16% lead in the polls at election time we will win the a very handsome majority.Not everyone is as obsessed for the need for an English parliament as you appear to be.
However there is absolutely no room for complacency and I would agree with those posters who point out that George needs to sharpen up his act as Shadow Chancellor. Sooner or later we will have to reveal in detail our plans for government. They must be credible.

[Janet]

One way for Conservatives to capture the vote in working class and Northern constituencies would be to help them to help their children to have the chance to move up in the world. How could this be done - well how about enabling those children who are very clever and interested in learning (these children occur across the whole spectrum of society) to go to schools where the emphasis is on academic achievement and not social engineering. Those workers who aspire to a better future for their clever children would jump at the chance of an academic education for them. This opportunity is denied to them by politically correct polititians and left leaning NUT types who destroyed the grammar schools. Stop leaving people dependent on the state and let them make their own success by providing an academic route to success for those for whom it is appropriate. I would not dream of saying that success is not an option for those otherwise gifted eg artistically or musically etc, but bright children may not be musical or artistic and then if a good education is denied them - how hopelessly frustrated they must feel. It is not enough to send them off to university at 18 because they have 'potential'- that potential should have been nurtured from the age of about 11 for them to achieve their full potential. Give voters everywhere the chance to make a better future for their children,then see how many people desert Labour for ever. BRING BACK THE GRAMMAR SCHOOLS. Don't take any notice of the minority who shout out that it is unfair, what child who finds learning a bore or difficult would want to go to an academic school anyway. If a secret vote was taken the majority of parents would want Grammars available. It's our country, who are politians to deny the will of the people(and there are a lot of votes in it too)

[Jake]

Malcolm, it is not good enough that he Conservative party settle for simply being new and better managers. Being 16% ahead is good but it is only a snapshot in time . The next election is perhaps two years away and anything could happen between now and then including the loss of that lead.

To establish that commanding lead which the party needs we have to have an idea which transcends everything else. That idea is simply lying around awaiting any party to grab it and run with it. It should be the Tory party which does it.
Constitutional reform is topical-a rare thing. After Blair's incomplete and unfair constitutional blunderings there is a feeling of something amiss. Large sections of the population view the whole political class with revulsion. It is the job of the Conservative party to harness this discontent and make something of it.

The Conservative party should address the situation boldly with a set of concrete proposals, first and foremost of which should be that they should promise a referendum in England on the subject of an English parliament and self rule within a federal United kingdom.

These are historic times. There is a golden opportunity here. It is no time to be fixated with eyes on the ground. Time for some new thinking. Labour is hoping the Conservatives will not break out of the box.

[Yet Another Anon]

put wife Yvette in the Cabinet because they would not be allowed to claim double expenses on their mortgaged homes.
Yvette Cooper is already in the cabinet as Chief Secretary to the Treasury!

As for notions of Alan Milburn leading Labour, he has always declined and doesn't have the commitment to be a cabinet minister - Tony Blair would quite happily have had him in the cabinet to the end and Gordon Brown probably would have been glad to have him in the cabinet, but Alan Milburn kept leaving the government saying that it was harming his family life.

if we have a 16% lead in the polls at election time we will win the a very handsome majority.
Whatever the "polls" show including at election time they are still not the real thing, all kinds of adjustments can be made, always these are for past variances between opinion polls and actual results, they can hugely exagerate changes in support and highlight voters reactions to what they think people want them to say and there really is no way of knowing what proportion of people might do this, many saying they will vote one way will genuinely believe that is what they would do, but in the different circumstances of the actual event may well do something very different - it would be reasonable to assume that once a General Election is announced that polls would become less inaccurate, but even ones on the evening before might not fully reflect actual opinion.

In 1992 a number of Conservative supporters refused to answer or told pollsters they would vote another way, many obviously were deciding on the election day itself - the 1979 General Election, 1970 and February 1974 similarily.

There is a shortage of proposals about what could be done, for example in sorting out the fiasco of the scrapping of the 10p starting rate - the Conservatives can decide a measure which is not a manifesto commitment neccessarily, but a package for this financial year of proposed alterations to the Finance Act and then put it to the vote and see if it gets past the government, if it attracts other opposition and Labour support it would humiliate the government and could force the government into going back to parliament and introducing an alternative measure to avoid defeat, being in opposition is not just about preparing a manifesto for the next General Election, they are elected to scrutinise legislation and propose legislation between times and the government would have the option of accepting or rejecting such a package.

[DavidRHayes]

"When will the Conservative party wake up to the fact that for about 15 years British politics have been dominated by myths, usually about the Conservative governments, perpetrated by Labour and the media in general."

I agree, trouble is a lot of myths are fed to children as young as 10, especially in Labour safe seats. Unfortunately, there has been a rise in the amount of charlatans in these areas, who hear words like Black Wednesday and make up their own story of what caused it. It's actually stopped being funny when they ask me "what's the ERM?"

Consequently many will argue black is white and up is down, and will refuse to listen to anything different, and when I say refuse to listen it has included people putting their fingers in their ears and humming (believe it or not they were 18). Is it any wonder that Labour are suggesting the voting age should be lowered?

Another point is that some people honestly believe that they need Labour to wipe their back side for them.

Seriously though, they think there has to be an advisory service for everything they may want to do in life. Their lack of resourcefulness is actually quite worrying especially as we live in an age where so much information is readily available at our fingertips.

People need to realise that life is more satisfying when you ride a bike without the stabilisers. Sure, you'll fall off a few times but it's all part of the learning experience. People need to be allowed to make mistakes, otherwise they are just deluding themselves.

The song "You can get it if you really want" is quite appropriate. That being said, I think the song "Butterflies and Hurricanes" by Muse suits Cameron quite well.

[Richard Woolley]

People are finally waking up to Brown and the failures of the New Labour project.
Cameron is right to be cautious and not offer too much at this stage. He just has to wait for the Government to implode. Remember that Mrs Thatcher was fairly cautious in the run-up to the 1979 election. Be pragmatic in opposition, win the election and then be radical in government. It's important not to say anything which will frighten off voters.

[StevenAdams]

I agree with much of what Jake says - though perhaps not so fervently.

Since Edmund Burke's 'Reflections on the Revolution in France', real Conservatism has been open to 'change in order to preserve'... rather than merely being resistant to change. If this is the thrust behind Jake's proposals, I would agree; this parliamentary party needs to keep its powder dry until electioneering, and then it needs to show that it is Conservative to the core, whilst showing the flexibility required to be attractive to those who would not otherwise look at us. This would be covered with three emphasises:

The Constitution

There is nothing 'Labour' or 'Conservative' about continuing, and bringing parity to, the now irreversible devolution of power to the Union. The powers are there, to remove them would be to destroy the party in the eyes of the Welsh, Scots and Irish permanently.

However, creating an English committee/parliament would be almost universally popular amongst the Joe and Janet Bloggs (though it may be unpopular amongst constitutional boffins or unmoveable traditionalists).

This would protect the Union from break-up, by valuing our neighbours' right to self-determination whilst retaining all of the economic and political advantages of remaining united.

The economy

This economy is a tanker, not a speedboat. Labour benefitted from a healthy exchequer and lean public sector (perhaps too lean?) from 1997, however a decade of sailing in the wrong direction has left the public sector too big, too bureaucratic, too static and - frankly - too expensive.

A Conservative government shouldn't lever millions into unemployment by a wholesale and rapid downsizing, clearly. Nevertheless, it should change the direction of the ship, and begin shrinking the size of government and - importantly - the extent of government intervention. The latter is crucial not just philosophically, but also as a means of managing expectations of government.

Social mobility

Conservatives are, if nothing else, meritocrats. If someone deserves something, then so be it. Social mobility is absolutely a conservative principle, in that it promotes those that can and should be promoted. What it SHOULDN'T do (in my humble opinion) is promote those who can't or don't deserve it... and that is the fundamental difference between the three major parties in my opinion... the Conservatives are just more meritocratic than the others.

[Felixstowe Fiddler]

Yes, Yet Another Anon, I am aware Yvette Cooper is in the Cabinet. You have overlooked the point I was making - as PM, Balls would be living in a grace and favour house, ie Number 10 Downing Street, and so would his wife. So they couldn't claim double expenses for a London home.

[Jack Stone]

If there is to be genuine social mobility on merit alone we must ensure that people are not denied jobs because they went to the wrong school, which they are and they are not denied jobs because of there race, religion, sex or sexuality which they are.
If you are to get true social mobility on merit then in my opinion you should abolish private schools and strengthen discrimination laws. Do that and it would be unnecessary to give people a leg up which is basically what is happening in some areas now because you could be sure that people were being judged on ability alone.

[Andrew Allison]

I don't think we are as far ahead as YouGov says we are, but we are still on-course for a general election victory. Very good news.

[Andrew Morrison]

Attn: Jake

I stand by my comments. I am not suggesting that power is a pendulum which will swing to us eventually, given time. But I am also not a defeatist and remain positive about the Conservatives chances in the years to come in Scotland and the North of England.

The Tories have tough time in parts of England facing the Liberals, who are by and large seen as being another party of the middle class. The SNP in Scotland mean elections are four way rather than three way battles, and there are SNP versus Tory marginals in the same way there are Liberal versus Tory marginals.

Here is such an example in Scotland from the election last year:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Roxburgh_and_Berwickshire_%28Scottish_Parliament_constituency%29

A stunning 8.9% swing to us from the LDs. Mr Lamont is a very talented campaigner who fought in a local basis by speaking up on local issues.

The moral of the story is suprises can happen, and for as long as even Glasgow is chipping out a rump of Tory vote to deliver an MSP on a proportonal representation vote then we are not finished.

To retreat into one region of England and rely on that to get into government is to lose the courage of our convictions.

Anyone in a Unionist party who wants to fling mud at Scots should be booted out and left to join the English Democrats.

[West London Tory]

"The Tories have tough time in parts of England facing the Liberals, who are by and large seen as being another party of the middle class"

That can be true, but it is fading.

Many Lib Dem activists are rough, scruffy, don't bother with ties, sometimes sport ear rings, and are usually gratuitously rude. In short, they are a real bunch of losers to look at.

[Jake]

Attn: Andrew.

Andrew, I am well aware of the complexity of Scottish voting patterns and would be only too happy for something of that nature to be replicated in England where the dominance of the old parties in the same old mode is somewhat depressing at times. It is probably a function of the decline and I hope impending eclipse of Labour in Scotland as the establishment party.

Congratulations on your Unionist affections. We are at one on that. Doubtless you are also in agreement that, since there is a Scottish Conservative Party, there should also be an English Conservative Party and that it is anomalous that there is not.

Doubtless also that when you remark

" Anyone in a Unionist party who wants to fling mud at Scots should be booted out and left to join the English Democrats"

you are not referring to any contributor to this thread and that in fact it is vastly unfair that Scotland should have her own parliament and government and yet England be denied the same. It is perfectly possible and compatible with a federal union
( which is what Scotland always worked argued for in the years prior to 1707 : as usual, England was unconsulted)

for all the component countries of the British Union to have the self rule which as of yet only Scotland has.

It is also perfectly Unionist and if implemented will be the saving of it.

[Yet Another Anon]

You have overlooked the point I was making - as PM, Balls would be living in a grace and favour house, ie Number 10 Downing Street, and so would his wife.
I would imagine that it would actually make no difference what to she could claim and they would have access to all kinds of Prime Ministerial residences such as Chequers. I think Ed Balls will succeed Gordon Brown, but in just over 9 years time.

If Ed Balls made Yvette Cooper Chancellor of the Exchequer then then could live next door to each other in Down St and maybe knock the wall through inbetween and make it into one?

[Andrew Morrison]

Attn: Jake

On the first point, I don't see any harm in there being seperate parties with seperate chairmen as we have now. I wonder what the arrangement is for funding just now - is the Scottish party funded from Scottish donations only, or a central 'block' of funding? If there were no central funding, some associations that are key for the national strategy would be on their knees.

Although superficial, the Scottish party could change their logo and name, perhaps revert back to 'The Unionists', as the name Conservative still has a bit of an image problem in parts here. Would a seperate English party with their own conference which Scottish Tories were not welcome at merely leave the path of rampant English Nationalism wide open? Perhaps not now but in the future.

Just about everything in Scotland has a different name, or the word 'Scotland/Scottish' inserted before it and for what? It does not necessarily lead to an autonomous entity. There was Scottish Labour Party at the previous term of the Scottish Parliament, who were merely an outpost of the Labour government in Westminster. Not only that but what is the harm is there in just being called 'Labour Party'?

Finally, I think Holyrood should be given tax raising powers, as does the Scottish Conservative leader: http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/main.jhtml?xml=/news/2008/01/22/nscotsparl122.xml

If that won't put us closer to federalism, I don't know what will. I can see the benefits of fiscal autonomy myself - in a Parliament which is only responsible for spending money, then there is very little a tax cutting party can offer to win favour. I believe we would win back the respect of the majority of Englishmen too, as the cat calls over the Barnett formula will be no longer applicable.