Earlier this week an ICM survey for The Guardian put the Conservative lead at 5%. A new ICM survey for The Sunday Telegraph puts the Tory lead at 10%.
Other poll findings:
- 44% of voters think the Conservatives will win the most seats, 35% think Labour will win the most seats.
- 63% of voters don't think the Government has done enough to compensate the victims of the abolition of the 10p tax band.
- There is some good news for Labour. 57% of voters back Brown's plan for 42 days of detention without trial. 36% are opposed.
We hope you like our new poll graphic. In addition to the latest poll data we've added an election outcome projection - based on an uniform swing for the latest poll and also ConservativeHome's poll of polls. We've used electoralcalculus.co.uk to make the projection.
This poll should be read together with the NoW poll of marginals. That shows approximate 5% lead in marginals (seats that in 2005 had a Labour majority), this a 10% lead in the country. Electoralcalculus works on a basis of a national swing. Having both polls we can see that the party is doing better in marginals than overall so this poll is actually likely to result in a larger majority than the model would forecast.
Posted by: Ted | April 26, 2008 at 20:43
On these figures Labour would lose around 92 seats... still, it shows that the 5% lead in the Guardian was probably a rogue, and lots of polls are now showing Labour dipping below 30% with alarming regularity.
Posted by: Andrew James | April 26, 2008 at 20:47
The poll of marginals implies a swing of c.8% against Labour. In all likelihood, the Conservatives would win a 100 seat majority with that kind of swing.
But marginal seat polls dont have a great track record in terms of accuracy.
Posted by: Sean Fear | April 26, 2008 at 22:20
Not sure about the UNS projection - I think it's going to be way off come 2009 or 2010. There's no way an 11-point lead would only produce a majority of 26, whatever the uniform swing calculators say!
Posted by: Iain Lindley | April 26, 2008 at 22:28
Forget the seat projections - its pure guess work. It depends crucially on what is going on natikonally with the LibDems. My guess is that they are losing in the south and gaining in the North. What THAT will do to seats is anyone's guess.
It's clear that the voters didn't think much of Gordon Brown's shambles over his con-trick of a 2007 budget and this reaction when, a year later, he was found out robbing the poor !
However although 5% in a week rejected Labour 4% of them went into the "Others" category [nb NOT into the 'Don't knows', who are excluded from the survey] 1% went to the LibDems but NONE went to the Tories.
Work that out!
Posted by: Christina Speight | April 26, 2008 at 22:46
NONE went to the Tories.
Work that out!
It's easy. Labour is giving the electorate plenty of reasons to reject them, but the Tory leadership is - as has often been pointed out on this website - providing precious few real reasons to attract positive support.
Posted by: Alex Swanson | April 27, 2008 at 05:34
ICM was the pollster over the last few months which has been best for Labour.If even they are showing Labour with a double digit deficit Labour really are in trouble.
Posted by: Malcolm Dunn | April 27, 2008 at 14:40
It is very true that there isn’t a reason to vote Conservative. What is needed is a ‘big idea’. One example would be a commitment for a full enquiry into to the behaviour of New Labour with respect to the donations from corporate backers. For example, the awarding of government contracts, allowing unlimited migration to replace indigenous workers, or jobs for ex-ministers. The additional benefit of announcing intentions of an inquiry would mean that this source of backing for the Labour party would dry up. It would also provide a boost to the sales of document shredders too.
Posted by: David Bodden | April 27, 2008 at 18:08
I agree with that. Its called threatening them with the danger of multiple inquiries into all their dodgy dealings over the last 11 years.
It'll work wonders for demolishing their donations/loans base - already diminishing.
Posted by: Jake | April 27, 2008 at 18:30