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Very interesting figures.

After some fun on UK Elect, I managed to calculate an outcome for a general election which would mirror these figures from ICM:

Con 41.0 (+144)
Lab 29.0 (-129)
LD 19.5 (-22)

Con Maj 66

I still think that unless things become apocalyptic, Labour are unlikely to do this badly - but in the current climate, who knows?

I wonder what ICM will come up with later on this evening....

I worry about this so close to Polling Day as it may make some Conservative supporters complacent and so less inclined to actually come out on Thursday! A more encouraging poll for Labour might have been more helpful in motivating our people to come out.

We're ahead by 7pts on this poll, 18pts on another, the Govt has just u-turned and George Osborne is still less popular than Darling?


Is his position entirely due to cronyism?

Brown may not be a campaigner but he is a schemer. With this much forewarding, I wouldn't rule out some sort of gerrymandering (compulsory voting to get the Labour vote out?), or even a Lib/Lab electoral pact.

I wouldn't rule out some sort of gerrymandering (compulsory voting to get the Labour vote out?)
Gordon Brown no doubt realises that introducing compulsory voting is the one way to annoy voters of all complexions, if there was an abstain box then that would be alright. No abstain box, but with compulsory voting and people will wipe things on it, or do things like putting matches in ballot boxes, or vote for the first person on the list - great for the Aardvark Party I'm sure if someone wanted to set one up.

The Fabian society has been talking openly for some time about compulsory voting. However, we all should resist this. Our vote is our right, whether we to use it or not, it is ours to cast or withdraw. Why should someone have to vote for a party if that political party does not represent their views. Forced votes lead to forced opinon, democracy is as much about the right to abstain as the right to vote.

There's also a little write-up of this poll on Spectator Coffee House:

"What jumped out at me from the poll (which will be on ICM’s website tomorrow) was how Brown is being squeezed from both ends. The DE social groups are deserting him and the As were never really with him. The over-65s, the group that is most likely to vote, are also most likely to vote Tory. Nor is there any difference in Tory support from marginals in the south, midlands and north. You could scarcely ask for better demographic and social split. The alliance that took Thatcher to power is regrouping behind Cameron – in the marginals, at least. " Fraser Nelson, Spectator

"I still think that unless things become apocalyptic, Labour are unlikely to do this badly - but in the current climate, who knows? " Andrew James 19:48.

They need to be made apocalyptic - for Mr Brown.
The way to do that is to gild the lilly with a cogent set of proposals for a referendum in England on the topic of an English Parliament and administration comparable with that of Scotland and therefore the emergence of a federal United Kingdom which will be wildy popular as conceded by none other than Blair himself .

The News of the World poll is now online: "News of the World poll of marginals shows how David Cameron would storm to election victory".

TONY compulsory voting is fine - as slong as we have a NONE OF THE ABOVE box - BUT the government having anticipated this have made it illegal. Check it out - so we spoil the ballot papers. Would you employ ANY of these pillocks in the NULABTORYDIM Party? No. Except Kate Hoey. Boris for PM. Dump Commie Ron before his Pink Agenda is revealed.,



I would have said that protecting the public is the most important consideration. We have of course to look at how any changes (I was considering the word cut, but that isn't quite the right idea) will impact the user groups. So although of course I want Welfare reform to be the highest priority, it has to be accomplished in a tactful and considerate way. Its no good trying to justify the unjust and the current incredulously low rate for Job seeking allowance is utterly counterproductive. There is little point imagining that the country would swallow deep cuts aimed at the unemployed. We have to engineer an economy that works.
Debt is of course the Elephant in the room. In this respect M.J. has demonstrated the answer to creditors, such silly debts are the end result of exploitation and interest is therefore something that can and should be reduced further. The pound is so weak now that we should all be better off if we thought of it as a new shilling. Of course the party leadership may be well behind the curve when it comes to lateral thinking but we will find that calling in the Gnomes and being dammed by our debtors is not a political possibility (Satanic Britannic devious, and maybe crazy)and always they’re first to point the figure. We have the lowest debt and you can bet your boots that the world would far rather we borrowed more rather than defaulted. So I kind of doubt that we will see the IMF writing off the debts just yet but you can be certain that some of those people don’t deserve to be repaid in full. Isn’t that all of the problem we all know that some people are bad risks yet the economy demands that they are allowed to mess up. In may well be that we find the way to get things going well is to boost the welfare state. We could invest a great deal of money in the people who have had the worst possible breaks, that would result in a certain Conservative future for Britian. I want a fair Conservative party giving all individuals an equal and fair share of the benefits of co-ownership. This is how I see the future of this great land.

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