Insiders predict that Osborne, Miliband and Huhne are likeliest next leaders of their parties

The one hundred Westminster insiders that report daily to the new PoliticsHomeIndex were asked earlier today about likely next leaders of the Conservative, Labour and LibDem parties.  The specific question was "assume that the current leader remains until the next General Election, but that he is replaced at some time during the next parliament."

George Osborne was favoured to succeed David Cameron by 40% of insiders with William Hague in second place (26%).  Insiders clearly don't believe Mr Hague's repeated denials of interest in the top job.   Then came Liam Fox (9%) and David Davis (8%).

Much more likely than a change of Tory leader is a change of Labour or LibDem leader.

Favourite to succeed Gordon Brown is David Miliband with 44% of insiders voting for the Foreign Secretary.  Alan Johnson wins 16%.  Chris Huhne is overwhelming favourite to succeed Nick Clegg (55%) with twice as many supporters as Vince Cable (25%).  Julia Goldsworthy wins 14%.  The two graphs below offer more info and read Andrew Rawnsley's analysis of the results here.

Comments

[Sceptic]

This is a non-story. Anyone could make these predictions. Who tipped David Cameron to become Tory leader before the 2005 general election? The so-called insiders would have chosen David Davis.

I am afraid this is nothing but an advertisement for a another site that also employs, according to Iain Dale, Conservative Home's Editor. This is the equivalent of editorial spam. Cut it out, Tim!

[Patsy Sergeant]

What no Balls there?!

[Tony Makara]

Labour do have a problem when it comes to choosing a future leader. They are a one-man team and their star player is nearing the end of his career. The Labour party has turned off its intellectual tap and now needs a long period in opposition to bring on the next generation of thinkers. Only when they have a Conservative government to contend with will they exit the comfort-zone.

Milliband and Balls look the likely bets to take over but do they lack the passion? Little Yvette has the passion but has she got the discipline? Labour need to be 'born-again' as a party before they can even think about winning the public's trust again. They need a clean break from the Blair/Brown axis and to re-build with new untarnished politicians of conscience. The Blair/Brown generation have run out of ideas, have run out of excuses, and have run out of time.

[Michael Hunt]

Having just acquainted myself with Politics Home, it appears that the Index panel is a mixed bag of various political affiliations.

Fine, but what should we make of the views of members such as Polly Toynbee on who is most likely to lead the Tories in the future.

That said, although a Tory, I too would choose Miliband and Huhne as Labour and Lib Dem front runners.

[Happy Harriet Harman]

The leadership of the labour party is mine!
I've been written off by you Tories more times than a bad debt, and yet I am still here and still on top

After what happened last week, I'm surprised that you are still underestimating me.

[Westminster hack]

Osborne? Yeah, right.

[Edison Smith]

I reckon Nick Herbert is a possibility.

[Tom FD]

I don't buy that Osborne would be the choice. If Cameron were hypothetically deposed I would expect the Tories to go for someone quite different, relatively distant from Cameron. Unless, that is, Cameron would exit for another reason.

[Len]

God help us!

[DavidRHayes]

I wouldn't write Osborne off completely, he is a brilliant election co-ordinator, true that is the job of a chairman, but could it really be beyond the realms of comprehension that he could be a fantastic leader.

Remember his technique of delivery, very very cautious, and then when the moment is right, he drops a huge bombshell when we really need it (e.g. Inheritance tax when we were so behind in the polls), what bombshell could he drop in the run up to the General Election.

[Ali Gledhill]

Readers, I am sure, would hate to dictate how ConservativeHome is run. This said, I'm afraid I have to agree with "Sceptic" in the first comment: whilst the PoliticsHome data is interesting, the recent spate of posts using Phi data has not always been relevent to this page. Might such posts be better placed in the Centre-Right section?

[Malcolm Dunn]

If David Cameron is successful he will be our leader for many years to come and it would be difficult to predict who would eventually succeed him. If he's unsuccessful it is likely if history is a judge that the Conservative party would dump him and then I think George would be too closely associated with him to be in a position to take over. All idle speculation.

[Conand]

This is hogwash.

Potential far-future spiritual leaders for us? Chris Grayling, Justine, 'Mr Ed' Vaizey, Dave D, The Govemeister and many many more although I'll be a Cameroon 'till my dying day.

On the Labour side Andy Burnham is far better than Miliband.

For the LibDems, good grief, who hasn't had a turn yet? I like the Viscount Thurso MP, but I'm a Tory.

[Matt Wright]

I read the original article slightly differently, my perception was looking a little further into the furture at who would be leading the three main parties. Clearly Labour have the most immediate problem as possibly do the Lib Dems. Frankly trying to be non-partisan I do think Brown is finished already and there is plenty of evidence that people are positioning already to replace him.

[Mr Angry]

If this is the future then god help us all.

[Tom FD]

Chris Huhne is to the Liberal Democrats what Al Gore was to the 2000 Presidential Election.

Which I guess makes Nick Clegg their George W Bush. A comparison I'm sure he'd be thrilled with.

[Serf]

As a Tory, Dave C's successor is of most interest.

George Osbourne has to be in a very poor posiion to take the lead. There are two options

1) We win the next election, in which case Cameron will be around for some time.
2) We lose the next election in which case anyone close to Cameron will be very unlikely to be chosen.

Blair / Brown has to be the only predictable transfer of power ever.

[James Maskell]

Id be worried about Osborne as leader. I find him empty as a politician. Also as a lackey to Cameron I couldnt buy him as a credible Leader.

I was just about the only Tory who didnt cheer when Osborne announced the inheritance tax policy at the Autumn conference...

[Letters From A Tory]

People forget that Cameron only came into office in 2005 and made an incredible impact, so watch out for the next generation of Conservative MPs if you want to look for a new leader.

[Conand]

I concur with LFAT.

[Mark Edinburgh]

My tip is Purnell if Brown loses simply because they will "go back to Tony". Take a look at the Purnell biog on wikipedia - you couldn't make up a better list of everything I hate about NuLab.

[StevenAdams]

Osborne's a great politician whose style of delivery left something to be desired but has grown in stature over the past 18 months.

If he spent his time delivering mixed messages, the Cons would be accused of being divided. If he spent as much time in the media limelight as Cameron, he'd be accused of lusting after Cameron's position just like Brown/Blair.

Instead, he remains in the background and delivers messages consistent with the leadership and he's lambasted for being too quiet and a poodle.

I think, perhaps, there are some factions who just won't be pleased until Tebbit is elected as PM.

[Jack Stone]

This is all nonsense. No one can predict when a party will change there leader and as we have seen in the past it is all about timing.
As I expect David Cameron to lead the party for a very long time I doubt wether his successor is even in Parliament yet.

[StevenAdams]

Jack - very fair comments.

[passing leftie]

I am afraid this is nothing but an advertisement for a another site that also employs, according to Iain Dale, Conservative Home's Editor. This is the equivalent of editorial spam. Cut it out, Tim!

Posted by: Sceptic | April 09, 2008 at 20:47

I don't believe for a moment that the esteemed Editor of this site would promote an organisation he is being paid by without a disclosure. That would stink. Editor? Can you confirm that Political Home isn't employing your services in any capacity.

Still, I'm glad to see that you have so little confidence in your leader you are speculating about the next one.

[David Belchamber]

The leadership of the conservative party needs no discussion at this point (I am relieved to say) as David Cameron so clearly has the vigour, youth and ideas (though certainly not all the answers yet) to take us as a united party into the next election.

We could probably do with another six months of Brown floundering around and totally splitting his party as the earliest date for a general election, if we were writing the script. Our policies ought to be fully worked out by then and anyway Brown would start to cause great harm to the country, if he stayed any longer.

The Lib Dems are now disunited again, so the question is really who would succeed the leaders of those two parties. I like Vince Cable a lot because he dealt better with Brown at PMQs than Cameron often does but I don't think he wants the job and therefore Chris Huhn would be the best bet (though Huhn in German means "chicken" - and we have already got one of those!).

Andrew Marr in his History of Modern Britain made a couple of interesting points:

"When the conservatives have been out of power, they have tended to think and work hard to change themselves and win it back.."

Exactly what has been happening since DC took over.

Marr adds:

"When Labour has lost power it has tended, after due thought and consideration, to tear itself into small pieces. This was the case in the fifties, in the seventies and again most spectacularly in the eighties.

In each case it was essentially a fight between the Labour left and right but as befits a party of altruists it was often also highly personal and vicious."

What are these stories of Brown's rages, of Jack Straw and Ed Balls almost throwing punches, dissent between their ladyships in the HoL etc?

Let us see just how accurate Andrew Marr's prediction is as we watch the final throes of this government.

[Editor]

passing leftie:

I hope you're not getting vertigo on your high horse!

I've been quite open about my involvement with PoliticsHome; here for example.

Stephan Shakespeare, who owns this site, also owns PoliticsHome.

Unlike ConservativeHome, PoliticsHome employs people from across the political spectrum including Nick Assinder, Martin Bright and Andrew Rawnsley.

I don't get paid more because of my help with the PHI100 panel - my only role with PoliticsHome.

I'll link to it when I think it includes material likely to be of interest to ConHome readers. You and others won't always agree with my judgment calls - or those of my co-editor, Sam, but hopefully disagreements won't be too frequent.

[passing leftie]

Nice one, Editor. Where does it say they pay you?

[Editor]

Editing this site is my paid work passing leftie.

[StevenAdams]

Passing Leftie doesn't seem to be passing... pity.

[Passing Leftie]

Editor,

Thank you for your prompt disclosure of your interest. I get it now. It's like The Sun cross-promoting Sky.

Passing Leftie doesn't seem to be passing... pity.

Posted by: StevenAdams | April 10, 2008 at 22:06

Well, I'm taking a week off. I think you'll miss me.

[Goldie]

ad Sceptic, 20:47
I did! And I now predict that Osborne will never be leader.