ConservativeHome's ToryDiary

Live blog of last PMQs before Brown's Mayday

EDITORIAL VERDICT: Lots of Punch & Judy politics from Mr Brown today. Another poor performance by Nick Clegg.  David Cameron did well enough but his choice of topic wouldn't have been ours.  We would have hammered Brown on tax again - particularly after this morning's Times revealed that "tens of thousands of families will have to pay up to £245 extra a year under new road tax rules after a covert government decision to include cars up to seven years old."  He might also have followed up Eric Pickles' discovery that Labour plan to introduce bin taxes but not until after polling day.

Highlights, not verbatim:

12.15pm: Nick Clegg's second question: Will the PM abandon his Post Office closures programme?  I won't take lessons from "Calamity Clegg" replies Brown.

12.14pm: Nick Clegg lists some failures of Labour on poverty but then [stupidly] asks the PM to say why people should vote Labour?  The PM obliges with one of his lists.

12.12pm: Gordon Brown responds by saying that Cameron is a shallow salesman who never addresses the substantial issues.  He wants to be tough on crime but urges everyone else to hug a hoodie.  He cycles to work but a chauffeur follows him.

12.10pm: The 42 days issue is the same as the 10p tax issue, says Cameron.  He takes up positions that aren't thought through for political advantage and they inevitably unravel. 

12.09pm: Gordon Brown avoids the question and quotes Met Chief Ian Blair in his support.  He says that the House will only vote for 42 days in principle - the House will have another chance to enact it, should that become necessary.

12.07pm: David Cameron says that with post-charge questioning and a commitment to a borders police force the Conservatives are taking the terrorist threat seriously but that they won't play into the terrorists' hands by compromising historic liberties.  He asks if Mr Brown will make this an issue of confidence in the Government.   

12.05pm: David Cameron says that Brown is ignoring the advice of the Director of Public Prosecutions and the former Attorney General.  He quotes Stephen Pound saying that "I will support it but I think it's barmy".  The PM counters that it should be "ashamed" of itself for not supporting action that is a pre-emptive strike against terrorism, supported by the police.

12.03pm: The Prime Minister says that there'll be no U-turn on 42 days.

12.01pm: David Cameron begins by joking that the planted questions get tougher and tougher and then asks if the Prime Minister will have to concede on 42 days' detention without trial.

Noon: The Speaker begins by warning The House to behave more properly.

Tory policies on crime are most likely to help win General Election

In the March survey of Tory members we asked this question:

"Listed below are all the main UK-wide policy areas. In which area does the Conservative Party have impressive policy ideas that will help win the next General Election."

Crime was at the top of the list.  68% of you thought that the party had policies on crime that will help us win the election.

Interestingly, culture, media and sport was at the bottom of the list.  Although you voted the abolition of the BBC monopoly on the licence fee as the best policy innovation of 2007, you like it intrinsically rather than electorally.  That's probably the right judgment.

ConservativeHome in GQ

June's edition of GQ has hit the newstands and it includes a series of photographs of leading politicians, political journalists and... political bloggers.  All these photos are safely tucked away on pages 200+.  The cover is reserved for "Gwyneth Paltrow: One Sexy Mother".  Introducing the political feature, GQ writes:

"We have made a point to include the bloggers, whose importance in Westminster has rocketed over the past few years."

All the photographs were taken by David Bailey.  Tim Montgomerie, Editor of this site, was one of the subjects - sandwiched between David Miliband and John Humphrys - click on the image on the right to enlarge.

Iain Dale was also photographed.

The portraits of Iain and Tim both got full page treatment.  It appears that GQ isn't edited by LibDems... poor Nick Clegg got just 1/6th of a page.  PoliticsHome.com has the full list of subjects.

Should Job Centres advertise work in the sex industry?

Just received this press release from CCHQ:

"During the Home Affairs Select Committee session today, Denise Marshall of the Government funded Poppy Project against human trafficking, spoke out against the Government for allowing Job Centres to advertise jobs in the sex industry.
 
Shadow Work and Pensions Secretary, Chris Grayling, said:

“Advertising jobs like this for the national minimum wage in Job Centres is unacceptable exploitation and should stop.  I’m amazed that so far James Purnell has failed to do anything about it.”"

"Jobs in the sex industry" include working in a lap dancing club and operating sex hotlines.

Labour's failed the working class on university admissions

John Hayes gave a lengthy speech about access to Higher Education this lunchtime. Speaking at Birkbeck College to about eighty academics he argued that part-time courses, community based Further Education Colleges and modular and distance learning should be utilised in opening up HE to disenfranchised groups.

His main theme was that the "expansion in university education in the last thirty years has delivered opportunity for some but not opportunity for all". The Government has spent £2bn a year on widening participation programmes, but the participation rate of working class students has increased by just 1% since 1995. Young people from the poorest income groups increased their graduation rate by just 3% between 1981 and the late 1990s, compared with a rise of 26% for those from the richest 20% of families.

Hayes was very critical of the Government's underlying belief that there is institutional bias in the university admissions system, calling it "unsubstantiated, unjustifiable and unacceptable".

Cameron admits that he hasn't been able to end Punch and Judy politics

David Cameron was interviewed by John Humphrys on this morning's Today programme.  The interview began with a discussion about tax and poverty policy.  We didn't learn much that was new.  The two interesting exchanges focused on David Cameron's promise to end 'Punch and Judy' politics and his membership of the Bullingdon Club.

Humphrys asked why David Cameron had failed to end Punch and Judy politics.  In a refreshingly honest answer David Cameron replied: "I fess up".  I haven't ended P&J politics.  In "real politics" he had worked with the Government when it was in the national interest, he said, and cited his support for Tony Blair's education reforms and the Government's decision to renew Trident  But, he said, it hadn't been possible to take the quieter approach that he'd hoped to follow at PMQs.  He'd had to take a more robust approach because of the seriousness of Brown's failures.  Asked why he'd set out to "belittle" the Prime Minister by calling Gordon Brown a "loser" at last week's PMQs (something that produced criticism from Peter Oborne) Mr Cameron replied by saying that he had been "angry".

John Humphrys' final questions focused on David Cameron's membership of the Bullingdon Club.  We could soon have ex-Bullingdon members as the Mayor of London, the Chancellor of the Exchequer and the Prime Minister.  Was that a problem?  No, said David Cameron.  People should be judged by their policies and not their private lives.  Mr Humphrys immediately came back by noting David Cameron's recent decision to "parade" his family.  'Private past but not private families?'.  What is in the past is in the past, Cameron replied.  Had he caused the Bullingdon photo to be withdrawn from public use?  No, Cameron said.  Did he regret that it was now out of circulation?  I can't possibly comment, the Tory leader replied.

PoliticsHome's rush transcript service.

10am: James Forsyth says Physician Heal Yourself in response to John Humphrys' harrying of David Cameron.   Iain Dale judges David Cameron's Today performance as his best yet.

ComRes: Tory lead doubles to 14%

That's what Andrew Grice has blogged.  No other information yet.

Last month's ComRes survey for The Independent had Conservatives on 38%, Labour 31% and LibDems 17%.

7am, 29/4: From The Independent:

Voices of the right

Thanks for your ideas for questions for this month's survey. We'll try and use a good number of them this month or next.

One question will seek to identify the politician who provides the most powerful right wing voice within the Conservative Party - outside of the frontbench.  Right wing is a somewhat unsatisfactory term but we mean it to be a voice associated with the more robust conservative positions on tax, crime, the family and Europe, for example.

We are proposing this list of right-wingers: Graham Brady, Iain Duncan Smith, Michael Fallon, Lord Forsyth, Michael Howard, Edward Leigh, Norman Tebbit, John Redwood, John Whittingdale and Ann Widdecombe.

Have we got the right list?  Who else should be included?

A day in the life of David Cameron

Samuel Coates: I'm spending the day with David Cameron as he campaigns for the local elections in St Albans and makes a speech about poverty, and will update this post at a few points during the trip. Hopefully you'll get an insight into what a day in his life is like in the run up to an election campaign.

9.30am: Cameron's already had a busy day which started at 6am, bran flakes at 6.15am, GMTV interview at 7.10am and then five GNS regional radio interviews. We're on the train to St Albans now (finally, "the shortest journeys always seem to have the longest delays") to do a bit of campaigning with Anne Main MP. I'm pretty sure Brown isn't on the same one.

10.45am: Whistle-stop trip to St Albans, heading back to London now. Cameron had a private meeting with the local council candidates before popping into some shops. The big issue for them is that they need CCTV to cover the front of the shops as virtually all of them have experienced theft and anti-social behaviour.

A number of the shopkeepers come out to meet him at the door and pedestrians try to shake hands and get pictures on their phones. He has a strong understanding of most issues so is good at asking pertinent questions of shopkeepers and discussing relevant issues with local people. Everyone he meets his very friendly and positive - especially train station workers for some reason!

11am: Cameron usually tries to have some time to relax in the weekends - Sundays in particular tend to be ring-fenced for family time - but with the election coming up the last one involved quite a bit of campaigning and yesterday his wife Sam gave a rare public speech in aid of Great Ormond Street Childrens' Hospital.

When out campaigning his aides - Caroline Preston, Gabby Bertin, Catherine Fall, Liz Sugg et al - sort out everything on a practical level. His own mobile phone is only really used by Sam during the day as he's always accompanied by one of them. He also uses one to keep tabs on ConservativeHome and other blogs and news sites.

We're heading to a community project in Islington now so he needs to swot up on his poverty speech.

Can anyone sum up in one memorable sentence what the Cameron-led Tories stand for?

That's the challenge set by Trevor Kavanagh in today's Sun. The thread below is ready and waiting for your ONE SENTENCE answers...

Gold, silver and bronze: Who deserves the credit for the Tory comeback?

In his column for the News of the World (not online), Fraser Nelson awards gold, silver and bronze awards to the three people he credits for the Tory position in the polls:

David Cameron gets Fraser's bronze medal: "He's sharpened up and looks likeable and electable... But he hasn't explained what he'd do for Britain."  We'd be a little bit more generous to David Cameron.  The party does have a good number of positive reasons for voting Conservative.  Not enough yet - that's true - but there's plenty of time to provide them before the 2010 General Election.

Lord Ashcroft, the man Labour love to hate, gets Fraser's silver award because of his marginal seats initiative: "His team sits in a corner of Tory HQ, a law unto themselves. And the best-run part of that often shambolic operation." Fraser overdoes Lord Ashcroft's role. Our performance in marginal seats owes much to the early adoption of candidates and we're aware of some dissatisfaction at the service that those candidates receive from CCHQ.  Lord Ashcroft's polling operation is unpopular with key aides to Team Cameron. The Conservative Party owes Lord Ashcroft a great deal - not least because of the money he poured into the party in the leanest of lean times, 1997 to 2001, but the Labour Party and Fraser Nelson give him more credit than is deserved.

Fraser's gold medal goes to Gordon Brown.  We have no quarrel with that verdict.  From the bottled election to the Olympics torch fiasco to the 10p tax con, Mr Brown has indeed been "the Tories' hero".

April questions

It's survey time again. Please use the thread below to suggest questions for ConservativeHome's monthly survey. We don't plan on releasing the results until after 1st May.

Cameron: I will never sanction a Budget that singles out the working poor for a tax rise

There were no big news headlines from David Cameron's interview on Andrew Marr this morning but here were the party leader's key messages:

• People on low incomes no longer feel that Labour is on their side.  The Conservatives say to those people that we'll keep your taxes down, we'll reform the benefits system so that couples aren't penalised for staying together and we'll give you a choice of a better school.  Cameron promised to never sanction a Budget that singles out the working poor for a tax rise.
• Conservatives have taken tough decisions.  There'll be no up front, unfunded tax cuts.  Francis Maude is looking for ways of cutting waste.  We'll cut the cost of politics and stop various perks that MPs enjoy.
• We won't talk down the economy, we won't predict recession.  There are many good fundamentals underlying the economy but over the course of an economic cycle we'll bring fiscal policy under control.
• Britain urgently needs to understand if it has enough storage or a robust enough infrastructure to ensure our supplies of oil, electricity, gas and water supply.  There must be a danger that the problems we've seen associated with industrial action in Grangemouth would be much worse if a terrorist group targeted our infrastructure.

Interviewed after David Cameron was Foreign Secretary David Miliband.  It was a very strong performance.  Mr Miliband appeared fresh and engaging - such a contrast with the PM's endless talk of long-term challenges.  If Brown's problems mount the Labour Party will be sorely tempted to choose Mr Miliband as the leader to save their seats.

10.20am: One of the best features of PoliticsHome is its through-the-day records of interviews that politicians give on radio and TV.  For highlights of Cameron and Miliband go to PoliticsHome. 

Tories 10% ahead according to ICM

Earlier this week an ICM survey for The Guardian put the Conservative lead at 5%.  A new ICM survey for The Sunday Telegraph puts the Tory lead at 10%.

Other poll findings:

• 44% of voters think the Conservatives will win the most seats, 35% think Labour will win the most seats.
• 63% of voters don't think the Government has done enough  to compensate the victims of the abolition of the 10p tax band.
• There is some good news for Labour.  57% of voters back Brown's plan for 42 days of detention without trial.  36% are opposed.

We hope you like our new poll graphic.  In addition to the latest poll data we've added an election outcome projection - based on an uniform swing for the latest poll and also ConservativeHome's poll of polls.  We've used electoralcalculus.co.uk to make the projection.

Labour set to lose 131 seats

That's the story of an ICM poll for tomorrow's News of the World, reported by The Sun:

"Taken in the 145 seats where the Tories came closest to beating Labour in 2005, it shows the two parties’ fortunes have entirely reversed. The Tories are seven points up compared to three years ago, on 40 per cent, while Labour are 11 points down, on 32 per cent."

This would give the Tories a 64 seat majority.

Another ICM survey for The Sunday Telegraph will be released at 8.30pm.

Politics need not be brutal

Peter Oborne issues a warning to David Cameron in his Daily Mail column: Don't over do the personal attacks on Gordon Brown at PMQs or in private briefings.  It may have a positive political effect in the short-run, suggests Oborne, but it may ultimately lead the British people to conclude that David Cameron lacks the basic decency that they want in politicians.

For the record: we don't think that David Cameron has gone too far but the warning is wise nonetheless.  As long as Cameron's anger is always on behalf of the British people he is doing his job as Leader of the Opposition.

Peter Oborne ends his piece with this:

"Politics need not be brutal. Indeed, I witnessed another fascinating insight into how it can be conducted on Thursday night when my wife and I went to a reception at Lambeth Palace, the historic home of the Archbishop of Canterbury.  Among the guests were many priests, bishops, charity workers and some politicians, including Gordon Brown and the backbench Labour MP Frank Field, who had spent all week spearheading a successful backbench revolt against the Prime Minister over his decision to abolish the 10p tax band.  At a late stage of the evening, under the benign gaze of the Archbishop, Frank Field stepped forward and embraced Gordon Brown, who responded in kind.  It was a moving and blessed moment between two honourable men who have been bitterly at odds for more than a decade and yet proved they could forget their differences."

Politics needs more of that.

Related link: Watch highlights of David Cameron's latest PMQs exchange with Gordon Brown

'Fleet Street' is becoming friendly again

The Sun backed him earlier this week and, today, The Times endorses Boris Johnson:

"The Conservative candidate is an enormously intelligent man. His eccentricities are, it should be remembered, basically harmless and inoffensive whereas Mr Livingstone's various attempts to summon up the political spirit of 1968 and cosy up to political thugs and merchants of hate most definitely are not. The thrust of Mr Johnson's policy suggestions on crime, transport and planning are sensible. His candour is welcome. His energy, enthusiasm and appetite for the role are much needed, particularly as London's economy heads into a testing few years. He is alive to Londoners' very deep concerns about drugs, stabbings and gangs, disappointment about persistent poverty and housing shortages, as well as their frustrations at traffic jams, empty bendy buses and an Underground network that is held to ransom by Bob Crow and the RMT."

There will be real delight inside Team Cameron that two Murdoch-owned titles have 'voted for' a Conservative candidate for the first time since the creation of New Labour.  Although many dispute that newspaper endorsements are of much electoral value - and Cameron won the Tory leadership despite much early hostility from right-wing newspapers - there is much more benefit to be had from positive coverage on the news pages, which can often flow from changes in editorial stance.

Team Cameron can already rely upon the endorsement of The Express and The Telegraph.  The Telegraph would like more boldness from David Cameron (ConservativeHome's position, too) but the only newspaper that backed the Tories in 1997, 2001 and 2005 will back the Conservatives again.

Scoop of the year: Jonathan Oliver

Jonathan Oliver has been awarded Scoop of the Year for his work in exposing the Labour funding scandal involving David Abrahams et al. This is the final award to be accounced from this year's ConservativeHome Movement Awards.

Then at the Mail on Sunday, another notable story of Oliver's was finding out that Cardinal Cormac Murphy-O'Connor had sacked his press officer for being gay. He was hired as political editor of the Sunday Times at the end of 2007.

The other shortlisted scoopers were the Evening Standard's Andrew Gilligan for exposing Mayor Livingstone over the financial support given to Lee Jasper's organisations (and various other scoops since this survey), and David Hencke's investigation that revealed that Labour spent £1m on preparations for the election that never was.

* More than 8000 people voted on the 2008 ConservativeHome Movement Awards. The previous award announced was book of the year, which went to Peter Oborne's The Triumph of the Political Class.

MORI: Tories lead by 9%

PoliticalBetting has more.

William Hague: Religious faith is needed to help tackle today's greatest injustices

Earlier today we highlighted a wide-ranging lecture by Iain Duncan Smith about the Conservative Party's poverty-fighting mission.   Also speaking last night - on this side of the Atlantic - was William Hague.  He was giving one of the lectures in Cardinal Cormac Murphy O'Connor's Faith and Life in Britain series.  Watch the full forty minute lecture here.

The Shadow Foreign Secretary spent much of his time talking about the religious faith that motivated William Wilberforce and inspired the Clapham Sect's battle against slavery.  He noted Wilberforce's belief that “religion is the business of every one, but that its advancement or decline in any country is so intimately connected with the temporal interests of society, as to render it the peculiar concern of a political man…”.  Mr Hague listed the legacy of the Clapham Sect, which Wilberforce was a part of:

"The Clapham community was a place of fellowship, inclusiveness, and understanding, and represented a set of values in polar opposition to the prevailing social ills of the day. Wherever there was a need or an injustice, they applied their considerable resources to the problem. From cancer clinics to prisons, Sunday schools to orphanages, asylums for disabled children to education initiatives in Africa, virtually no cause was left untouched by their efforts. They founded the Society for Religious Instructions to the Negroes in the West Indies, the London Missionary Society, the Society for Bettering the Condition and Increasing the Comforts of the Poor, the Church Missionary Society, the Religious Tract Society, the Society for Promoting the Religious Instruction of Youth, the Society for the Relief of the Industrious Poor, the British National Endeavour for the Orphans of Soldiers and Sailors, The Asylum House of Refuge for the Reception of Orphaned Girls the Settlements of whose Parents Cannot be Found, the Institution for the Protection of Young Girls, the Society for the Suppression of Vice, the Sunday School Union, the Society for Superceding the Necessity for Climbing Boys in Cleansing Chimneys, the British and Foreign Bible Society and the wonderfully named, Friendly Female Society, for the Relief of Poor, Infirm, Aged Widows, and Single Women of Good Character, Who Have Seen Better Days."

Although William Hague noted that interpretations of religion brought many problems he was of the overall view that it was needed by society today - not least in fighting human trafficking.

Brown "obsessed" with Andy Coulson

There's yet another story based on sources in Downing St in this week's PR Week. Sources say the tactics of Conservative Communications Director Andy Coulson are really getting under Gordon Brown's skin.

Coulson is credited with making the "ditherer" tag stick to Brown, undermining his trip to the US, and on a more personal level of spreading word of his depression. Brown apparently can't stop talking about him as a result.

The piece rightly notes the important roles of press veterans Henry Macrory and John Deans in managing the media operation.

The magazine also has an account of the rats-jumping-the-sinking-ship effect coming to play:

"Hordes of senior Labour special advisers are said to be passing their CVs to headhunters and recruitment consultants amid concern that their stock is falling."

Related link: Westminster insiders say Tories have best media operation

IDS: Voters must see conservatism as good for them and good for their neighbour

Speaking yesterday evening to centre right think tanks and campaigning organisations in Atlanta, Georgia, Iain Duncan Smith has talked about the importance of a conservatism that addresses poverty and social exclusion.  Here are some of his key messages:

Voters want to see a conservatism that is good for them and good for their neighbours: "Because we valued wealth creation, we were seen as indifferent to the poor.  Because we valued stable families, we were seen as hostile to lone parents.  Because we valued independence from the state, we were seen as hostile to the old, sick and disabled who relied on the state to survive.  So whereas many – if not most – voters thought that Conservative policies might be good for them, not enough thought that they would benefit their neighbours."

Fighting poverty can't just be about money: "We have let the left make alleviating poverty just about money. Whilst money is important, it is far from the only factor. I think of the drug addict with a family. If the state gives that person more money and by so doing gets them above the poverty line they and their family will still be in poverty... for unless they reform the way they live their lives and come off drugs, all the money goes on drugs and the family will struggle to find food and clothes.  They nature of your life has a huge bearing on your condition. That is why I have defined the five pathways to poverty as: Family Breakdown, Drug and Alcohol addiction, failed education, debt and the fifth, worklessness and dependency. All of these areas interact. For example we know from the evidence that the children of a broken home are 75% more likely to fail at school, 70% more likely to become drug addicted, 50% more likely to become alcoholics, 40% more likely to be in debt and 35% more likely to become unemployed. But new also know from the report that debt is the biggest cause of family break up."

David Cameron's Chief Speechwriter leaves for charity work

He joined the leader's office less than two years ago but, according to an impeccable source, Danny Kruger has resigned as Chief Speechwriter to David Cameron.

The parting is very friendly.  Danny has decided to pursue his commitment to Only Connect - "a theatre company and resettlement charity working in London prisons."  Read more at OnlyConnect's website.  The charity was the brainchild of Danny's wife, Emma, and they are now planning to build it up together.

Alongside Peter Franklin, Philippa Stroud and Cameron Watt, Danny has been one of the most effective 'back office' advocates for the party's social justice agenda.  He'll leave a big hole in the leader's office but his decision can't be faulted.  It's a great thing to write big speeches about the poor.  It's more earthy to be helping people at the coalface.  Good luck Danny.

Related link: A rehabilitation revolution

Tories surge to 18% lead in first poll after 10p row

Breaking now on The Telegraph website.

9pm: More now at Telegraph.co.uk including the important news that the poll of more than 2,000 voters was largely completed before Brown's u-turn.

Six must-adopt ideas to tackle social injustice

Gordon Brown's 10p U-turn is unravelling.  Over at CentreRight, Simon Chapman has the latest.

It's clear that the Government handled the 10p row very badly.  Through his tax on lower income Britons, Gordon Brown - as David Gauke MP has written - trashed his reputation as a champion of the poor and as a master strategist.

The Conservatives can only be pleased with current events but they have fallen short in one crucial respect.  The 10p row was an opportunity to present the party as a champion of hard working, lower income workers.  Lord Forsyth - followed by today's Sun and Telegraph - urged the party to focus on raising the threshold for paying income tax.  A reluctance to do so has meant the party has missed an opportunity to do the right thing and add a key group of voters to the conservative coalition.  By 63% to 28% the insiders that make up PoliticsHome.com's daily index do not believe that the Conservatives have emerged from the 10p tax row with a stronger connection with lower income voters.  That's a pity.

As the Conservative Party looks ahead it can do no better than to pick up more of the ideas from Iain Duncan Smith's Centre for Social Justice.  The CSJ has been monitoring the party leaders' pick up of its ideas.  Gordon Brown has adopted 16 ideas so far.  David Cameron has adopted 27.

As part of our Agenda 2008, here are seven yet-to-be-picked-up ideas that we think are most worthy of being adopted:

A national programme of relationship education.  The SJPG’s proposals did not promote marriage at the expense of single parents but included many measures intended to support people in all types of families, for example by better integrating them into the communities of which they are a part.  Relationship education has proven to reduce divorce and break-ups among couples. To help couples fulfil their aspiration to have healthy relationships that go the distance, the SJPG proposed the roll out relationship education across the nation recommending a national relationship and parenting education ‘invitation’ scheme for couples and parents at key life stages.

Pilot localisation of welfare to work provision to local consortia. Chris Grayling’s green paper in January showed that the party has accepted most of the SJPG’s welfare-to-work proposals.  However they have not adopted the proposal to facilitate innovation in the welfare system by piloting the devolution of decision-making, funding and contracting of welfare-to-work services to local employment consortia.