Clegg faces surrender on referendum or defining rebellion

At about 7pm tonight the LibDem leader will be holding a meeting with his parliamentary party.  Seventeen of his MPs - listed below - have challenged his line that there should be no referendum on the EU Treaty.

The equivalent would be a rebellion of fifty for David Cameron.

If Clegg insists on voting against a referendum he will risk a major rebellion tomorrow and his authority as leader may never recover.

His escape option might be to support an amendment by Ian Davidson that would give the British people two votes - one on the Lisbon Treaty and another undefined vote, in the gift on ministers.  That second vote could be Nick Clegg's in-out vote.

William Hague has issued a statement, piling pressure on Mr Clegg and those rebels (many of them in fear of Eurosceptic campaigns by their Tory opponents):

“Wednesday is decision time for the Lib Dems. They can honour their election promise of a referendum on this Treaty or they do Gordon Brown’s dirty work for him and break their word. They can be sure of this: voters will judge each MP on how he or she behaves today. Because what it the point of voting for an MP or party that makes promises at election time only later to do the exact opposite?”

CLEGG'S NOT SO LOYAL MPs
A list compiled by Open Europe, partly using the indispensable ReferendumList.

Sandra Gidley - Health: "After much thought and consideration I have not been persuaded that the overall effect of the treaty is sufficiently different to the EU Constitution which was proposed prior to the last election. I am mindful of the promise I made at the last election which was to support a referendum on the Constitution. I will not use semantics to wriggle out of a promise so, unless something unforseen happens, I intend to support the call for a referendum."

Martin Horwood - Environment: "As you may also be aware from the media, there is another amendment supported by the Conservatives to introduce a referendum just on the treaty itself, rather than on membership of the European Union. As I understand it, this would only apply before ratification so if it fails during the passage of the bill through Parliament and the treaty is ratified, it would leave you without a vote. I am nevertheless inclined to support this referendum amendment too, in the spirit of our manifesto promise for a vote on the ratification of the earlier Constitution."

Alistair Carmichael – (Scotland and Northern Ireland) defied the whip and abstained at the second reading.  He said the other day: “"I don't think it is any secret that this is a live debate within the party, there is a view to be taken on whether the treaty we are being asked to consider is the same as the constitution which was the subject of our manifesto commitment and again it is no secret that there is a range of views within the party on that.” "I have been in discussions with my chief whip and the party leader and those discussions remain just that. There is a whole range of possibilities that might occur and we will just take it day by day."

John Pugh – (junior Health) has come out in favour of a referendum on the Lisbon Treaty, according to the Southport Visiter:  “I think there is currently a danger of Europe seeming to be run by a political elite, with the public across Europe feeling disempowered and alienated,” he said.

David Heath (justice secretary) told his party whips that he will listen to his constituents and will vote for a referendum on the Lisbon treaty, even if they threaten to sack him from the front bench: “I intend to vote for it, as I promised, and I have warned my whips I will do so."”

Nick Harvey (Defence) said in a letter to a constituent in January that "The similarities between the Reform Treaty and the proposed EU Constitution clearly outweigh the differences. Yes I do personally support a referendum."

Lembit Opik (housing) has said that: "The question of a referendum on the Treaty itself is a hard question. As you well know, others say that the Treaty is so much like a Constitution that it warrants a referendum on its own."

Tim Farron (shadow countryside spokesman) told a constituent in a letter: "I do believe that the government should be held to account for its failure to uphold the manifesto pledge and I will vote for a referendum".

Colin Breed (shadow treasury spokesman) has said, "I would support a referendum on the proposed European Treaty."

Richard Younger Ross (shadow DCMS) has also come out for a referendum, as have backbench Lib Dem MPs Mike Hancock and John Hemming.

Seven more defied the whip and abstained at the second reading: Annette Brooke, Lorely Burt, Mark Oaten, Paul Rowen, Bob Russell, Sir Robert Smith, and John Thurso.

Comments

[TFA Tory]

Why vote for a referendum on a proposal to defend what is left of our sovereignty and democracy rather one would give us an opportunity to restore all of them? I would support Clegg rather than William Vague - BETTER OFF OUT!

[comstock]

I wonder what odds I'd get on a LibDem leadership challenge before the next election?

[Chad Noble]

"Why vote for a referendum on a proposal to defend what is left of our sovereignty and democracy rather one would give us an opportunity to restore all of them? I would support Clegg rather than William Vague"

Because there is no chance of a majority of MP's voting for the latter, but based on their promise to their constituents, there could be enough for the former.

The issue of MP's honouring an election pledge is the important issue here as Hague has exploited well, as those MP's sitting on slim majorities will be only too aware of how it will be used against them at the next election if they break their pledge (unless Cameron has still failed to deliver his epp pledge of course)

Keep your powder dry TFA Tory. The time will come.

[TFA Tory]

I hope so, Chad.

Ben Brogan has reported that Susan Kramer and David Heath have resigned from the LD shadow cabinet. That's just the start. Dim Lebs split over Europe too - LMFAO!

[bluepatriot]

Tory candidates deserve much credit for this mess. If they hadn't been pressing the Liberal democrat MPs in their backyards Clegg may have been able to hold the line.

[Rod Sellers]

Just been watching (on the Parliament Channel)some incoherent Scottish woman (Jo Swinson) rambling to an empty chamber about the virtues of the EU.

If this ratification goes through the electorate'deserve' the Lib Dems and good luck to them.

[Margaret of the Guillotine]

"TFA Tory": you really must be a wind up - hell, even more of a wind up than me - if you've fallen for the Libs' ploy of an amendment for a plebiscite on EU membership over the Cons' amendment for one on the Lisbon Treaty.

I mean, what in the name of hopeless, pointless, ridiculous opportunism is this new unburst pimple of a LibDem leader and his barbarian hordes up to? Are the Libs now going to come out in favour of withdrawal from the EU? Er, no.

If it was some glorious principled stand by them in favour of democracy [sic] and vox populi and "the people's will" then I might understand, but if that were the case the Libs would a) have been calling for this a long time ago, not just when the bill was coming before Parliament, and b) would at the same time be backing a similar plebiscite on the Lisbon Treaty.

Let's face it, this is a really abysmal way for the Libs to try to save face over Lisbon. Where is the political nous the Libs are famed for?

As a pro-European I am opposed to Cameron's Euroscepticism, but I can respect that it is a principled position, not this ridiculous sham that Clegg has come up with. I am rather surprised that a grocer's daughter-worshipping Europhobe like "TFA Tory" hasn't realised what a Thatcherite Cameron is in this respect.

[Westmorland Activist]

What is the source for the Farron quote ?

[TFA Tory]

I am not a Europhobe. Like Roger Helmer, I Love Europe but Hate the EU. It is the EU fanatics who are democracy-phobics.

All I want to do is call Clegg's bluff because I believe that British people would vote leave the EU if given the opportunity.

[Chad Noble]

"As a pro-European I am opposed to Cameron's Euroscepticism"

I wasn't aware that Cameron had expressesed any dislike of Switzerland, Iceland, Liechtenstein or Norway.

Or did you mean pro-EU? Now that is something *entirely* different. The usual lies from the euphiles...

[kow tow]

The interesting unreported story in all of this is the role of Danny Alexander- Clegg's PPS and former Comms Director of the European Movement and Britain in Europe.

I think Clegg has been seriously badly advised.

[Malcolm Dunn]

Any news of what's happened yet? I must admit watching another party tear itself apart over the EU gives me a warm feeling.
If any Lib Dem is reading this I want to say how suprised and delighted I am that a number of your MPs seem to have demonstrated that they have principles and honour. Not normally traits associated with your party.

[ChrisD]

"Any news of what's happened yet?"

Malcolm, I was just going to ask if anyone had any news of the meeting.

[michael mcgough]

Clegg must have been taking advice from his old mentor Lord Brittan or reacting to threats from the likes of Baroness Williams;what a farce.

[michael mcgough]

Clegg must have been taking advice from his old mentor Lord Brittan or reacting to threats from the likes of Baroness Williams;what a farce.

[Matt Wright]

This is about basic principles at a time when politicians are being asked to stand firm and show some guts. The Lib Dems, like Labour, said they would permit a referendum and they set this out in their manifesto. The treaty is no different from the constitution, everyone knows this. I admire those Lib Dems who have said they will not support a frankly barmy Clegg policy designed to put up a smoke screen for the parties own duplicity,

Matt

[Richard Allen (Ukip)]

John Hemming has also stated on his blog that he will vote for a referendum.

[DB]

Just watching Clegg on Newsnight.

Oh dear.

Oh dear, oh dear, oh dear.

How embarrassing.

And yet amusing.

What a prize twat he is.

[Lifelong Tory]

Absolutely disgraceful how Clegg just claimed on Newsnight that his MPs were not breaking any promises as they did not guarantee a referendum on the Lisbon Treaty. In his short time as leader, he has already been more patronising than Brown on this issue. He must really believe that the electorate is as stupid as he wishes it were.

[christina speight]

I’ve just finished watching the most extraordinary political shambles on Newsnight. The LibDems have failed to get parliament to vote tomorrow on their idea of a referendum on leaving the EU altogether and Nick Clegg has told his MPs to abstain on the Tory call for a vote on the Treaty (which is what the Commons is discussing right now!)

This decision not to make up their mind produced scorn from a number of MPs and from a senior strategic adviser to the party. Then Paxman gave Clegg the chance to answer, which he did in a very feeble fashion! He seemed weak and indecisive. (dithering seems to be all the rage this season!)

We now have a situation where a large number of his MPs will vote for a referendum. One or two may vote against and the rest will prove to be useless. Clegg’s position can’t be good!

[Ephraim Gadsby]

I disagree with holding referendums in principle, so am happy for this Lib Dem amendment to be defeated.

However, at least Clegg is being honest, unlike most of the anti-EU headbangers. The secret agenda behind this "We Want a Referendum" rubbish is the complete withdrawal of the UK from the EU. So at least Clegg is proposing a vote on the real question, rather than disguising it behind fake outrage about a Treaty few people have read, let alone understand.

And stop saying that all three parties promised a referendum on the Lisbon Treaty. That is just not true, and repeating the line tiresomely does not make it true. The Lisbon Treaty had not even been negotiated at the time of the last election. There was a promise to hold a referendum if the proposed Constitution were to be implemented, but the Constitution fell by the wayside some time ago. The Lisbon Treaty replaces it, but is not covered by a manifesto promise made two years before it was even drafted.

[HF]

So with Susan Kramer and John Hemming that is 19 and then add in Mike Hancock and its 20.

[ChrisD]

"However, at least Clegg is being honest, unlike most of the anti-EU headbangers. The secret agenda behind this "We Want a Referendum" rubbish is the complete withdrawal of the UK from the EU. So at least Clegg is proposing a vote on the real question, rather than disguising it behind fake outrage about a Treaty few people have read, let alone understand."

Yawn. I for one am not going to take the bait on this piece of puffed up faux outrage straight out of the Libdem manual on how to get others to join you in the deep hole you have dug yourself.
Thanks, but no thanks.

[ChrisD]

HF, IRRC Benedict Brogan reckons that Susan Kramer will still follow the whip on this vote.

[Gloy Plopwell]

I don't know what peopel are complaning about. The policy is totally clear in the lib dems, and we will recover, and win the next election.

[christina speight]

Ephraim Gadsby- Are you - like Clegg - a former (or present) employee of the EU. We should be told.

All three major parties plus some minor ones promised a referendum on the Constitution.

The Treaty IS the Constitution (even the flag and the anthem have crept in by the back door into an annexe) 98% of everything else that was in the Constitution is in the Treaty and has exactly the same effect. Merkel says it is the Constitution, Giscard d'Estaing (who wrote it!) says it is too, Bertie Aherne says it is the Constitution and Gordon Brown told Aherne it was the Constitution. Junker, the head of Luxembourg and a candidate for President says it is. So did Prodi, so does the Spanish prime minister and the Portuguese one too.

So stop lying as you've comprehensively lost the argument and been made to look a fool

[HF]

I agree that a number of PPCs have played a blinder on this and IWAR have done a remarkable job.

The Lib Dem peers seem to have caused the problem back with Ming and Clegg lacked the ability to foresee the problem.

A pity that some marginal constituencies have not lent on their MPs more.

Maybe IWAR has to do another 30 more?

[Stuart Coster]

More than the scale of the rebellion, the list of rebels includes SEVEN Lib Dem front-benchers (Heath, Harvey, Farron, Gidley, Pugh, Breed and Horwood).

Maybe eight, if Alistair Carmichael's vague words are taken to mean he supports a referendum.

There would be a huge media furore were so many front-benchers for any other party openly declaring that they will vote against their party's policy.

How do the Lib Dems escape such scrutiny? Not even Paxo put this to Clegg in Newsnight tonight, who was able to dismiss such dissent as 'normal' and present in every party.

It's another example of the way, sadly, our traditional media is failing our democratic system.

[Joe James Broughton]

The Lib Dems have decapitated their leader twice since 2005, and the main reason they did so is because of the renewed Tory threat.

This shambles should be good news for us, but be careful about analysing them as if they are a serious party - they're not.

[ChrisD]

"How do the Lib Dems escape such scrutiny? Not even Paxo put this to Clegg in Newsnight tonight, who was able to dismiss such dissent as 'normal' and present in every party."

Incredible isn't it, especially when you think about the assumption just a few months ago in both Labour and Libdem ranks that the Conservatives were most at risk of facing internal dissent over this issue?
Now if it was David Cameron facing a rebellion of both shadow cabinet members and backbenchers on this scale, it would be wall to wall coverage and analysis.

Does anyone have any information on how tonight's Libdem parliamentary meeting went?

[Jill, London]

Well, well, who would have thought that Ed Davey’s “Violet Elizabeth Bott” tactics – by alternative means [as he didn’t actually lisp: “I’ll thcream and thcream ’till I’m thick!”] had "Gorbals Mick" capitulating when Sir Michael Lord didn’t. More evidence of the Lib-Lab Pact to aid this Yellow Peril charade.

[BTW – Violet Elizabeth Bott is a very spoilt little girl – with a lisp – in Richmal Crompton’s “Just William stories”. (If “Calamity Clegg” played “Just William”, I wonder which Lib Dems would fit his gang of pals known as “The Outlaws”?!). Catch Martin Jarvis’ brilliant readings of “Just William” playing periodically on BBC7 digi radio!]

And I note that "Brutus" Cable who has described himself as a "sceptical Europhile" isn't one of the Yellow Peril rebels. It can't be politically opportune for him at the moment!

[Alex Swanson]

The secret agenda behind this "We Want a Referendum" rubbish is the complete withdrawal of the UK from the EU.

Oh come on, it's not that secret is it?

Anyway, you're deploying the standard left-wing tactic of attacking people's motives and not addressing the argument. There is no good reason for denying the people their say, and suggesting otherwise simply reinforces the fact that to be pro-EU you must be anti-democracy.

[Alex Swanson]

the Constitution fell by the wayside some time ago. The Lisbon Treaty replaces it, but is not covered by a manifesto promise made two years before it was even drafted.

It's a direct replacement, which implements essentially the same changes. Everybody knows it, and claiming otherwise does you no favours.

[IRJMilne]

"I would support Clegg rather than William Vague - BETTER OFF OUT!"

Clegg would not be backing an in-out referndum if he thought it might actually happen.

[Giles McNeill]

I've just watched (repeated online) Newsnight.

Poor Nick Clegg - he's not good in being interview - he really is very patronising and I've had dinner with the man in 1999 and he just patronised us as if we knew nothing about the EU - nine years hasn't improved him.

[christina speight]

Giles McNeil - Well Clegg has been thoroughly brainwashed first as an EU employee and then as a LibDem MEP. You can't expect independent rational discourse with someone with THAT background!

[Yet Another Anon]

I wonder what odds I'd get on a LibDem leadership challenge before the next election?
They've already ditched 2 leaders, what prospect does anyone challenging have of holding the position of the Liberal Democrats and under the circumstances they would be opportunistically blamed for bad results at the General Election and ditched.

Nick Clegg either makes such a mess that the party obviously faces oblivion and is then ditched in a situation where a new leader has low expectations of what they can achieve - just as in 1992 the position of the Liberal Democrats had been so bad that in the 1992 General Election getting a seat less than the Alliance had in 1987 and 18% of the vote was applauded as being a great result.

Or he stands down and perhaps Vincent Cable leads the Liberal Democrats into the 2009 General Election.

Or he goes on, individual Liberal Democrat MPs effectively campaign as Independents in the General Election and then consideration to a move against him can come after the General Election.