Tories back in the lead with Ipsos MORI

Last month Ipsos MORI surprised us all when it reported a 1% Labour lead.  A small improvement in the Tory position and a 1% drop in support for Labour puts us back in the lead in Ipsos-MORI's February Political Monitor.  More than 2,000 interviews were conducted from 21st to 26th February.

Earlier today we suggested that crime should be Tory priority number one.  The MORI survey lends some support to that theory:

"Crime / law & order / antisocial behaviour remains the most important issue facing the country, with half of the public (50%) spontaneously mentioning it when asked. This is followed by concern about race relations / immigration (44%) and the NHS (25%)."

Comments

[Steve Green]

I can't wait to see the polls due to be published after tonight's vote.

[David Belchamber]

Was it the much maligned John Major who yearned for a "nation at ease with itself"?

Perhaps that should be our aspiration for the next election.

[Andrew Woodman]

Reinforces the stablity around the 40% mark. Can't help feeling there is a bit of a flaw with these polls as there is quite a difference between these and the other pollsters. Can anyone seriously believe Labour have added to their support since the last election!!

[comstock]

"Can anyone seriously believe Labour have added to their support since the last election!!"

Yes, from the LibDems-following their woes and the fact the Iraq war is now less of an issue.

[Sean Fear]

Andrew, the other polls for February show Labour in the range 30-33%, so no, they haven't added to their support since the general election.

[Tony Makara]

It is incredible that this government, with its dreadful catalogue of failure, cam still clock up 37% support. This relates a simple message. The Conservative party is not doing enough to expose Labour's failings. Once again last weekend Gordon Brown got away with telling the nation that we have full employment and once again Conservative spokesmen did not challenge him on this. If the public are told such blatant lies and if such lies are not exposed immediately Labour will continue to muster a healthy 37% support. Exposing the falsehoods of a lying and dishonest government is not negative campaigning, it is doing the people of our nation a service.

[Martin Coxall]

Mori's results seem to be curiously out of line with everyone else's, in that they seem to be inflating the Labour support far beyond what seems credible.

I wonder what gives?

I'm sure somebody at Political Betting will have an idea.

[Sean Fear]

Tony, the 37% rating for Labour is out of line with every other polling company, so I shouldn't be too concerned about it.

Martin, from time to time, all polling companies come up with findings that are out of line with the rest.

[Robin Coomer]

Steve Green - Yes, me too! Ironically, I think the expected defeat of the Conservative amendment will bolster the Conservative vote significantly. They will be seen to be the only party to stand by their manifesto pledge - critical in such an atmosphere of public distrust of politicians. More importantly, most disgruntled voters will take the view that the large Labour majority denied them their chance to express their views! If the poll figures from IWAR are to be believed then it could spell disaster for both Labour and the Lib-Dems - the latter of which seem to be hurtling towards the 'self-destruct'... :-)

[Jack Stone]

If anyone thinks that Europe is going to make a blind bit of difference to the polls I am afraid they are living in cloud cuckoo land. People just don`t give a dammed about the issue.Most normal people want to see us make a success of being in europe not pull up the cricket stumps and walk off the pitch like most who post on this site want to do.

[Sean Fear]

People just don`t give a dammed about the issue"

Yes, dear.

133,000 of them in ten constituencies did give a damn.

[James Lees]

My bet is that Lib Dems could go down to 11% due to Clegg's calamitous handling of his EU referendum wriggle.

Acording to the Telegraph swingometer that would leave them with only 11 MPs, and if the swing went to the Conservatives it would give them an overall majoruty of 28!

Clegg might win us the election!!

[David Parker]

Tony Makara,
You have put your finger exacly upon Cameron's greatest weakness. Understandably, for obvious reasons, he may be reluctant to reveal too many specific details of his own proposed policies, until these are released in an election manifesto.
However, this does not excuse him from failing to engage the opposition, at every opportunity, when they resort to lies and falsification of reports and statistics.

This is the best time, in the life of a Parliament, for a competent opposition to run a strongly negative and aggressive campaign against the incumbent Government, (particularly one with such a record of deceit, incompetence and dishonesty) before switching to a more progressive and upbeat one closer to the next election.

I have yet to be convinced that Cameron is capable of savage bites as well as sound bites.

[Northernhousewife]

David Parker.
I wonder if you caught Nick Robinson's programme on DC.
One of the contributors said he hadn't supported Cameron initially but had come to admire him.
He said that people make the mistake of failing to understand that his charming exterior hides real steel.
That was Derek Conway, before he was sacked.

[Northernhousewife]

This poll is older than the last You Gov.

[Tony Makara]

David Parker, you might remember that in the build up to the 2005 election, Labour MPs where saying "The economy is good" at every opportunity and I actually heard someone that I knew saying that they were going to vote Labour because the economy was good, yet when I asked what was good about the economy that person was unable to answer. Labour are continually floating phrases such as "full employment" and "more people in work" to put the idea into people's heads through repetition. If these claims go unchallenged many voters are liable to believe them and will continue voting Labour. Even the Labour website claims we have full employment while at the same time James Purnell talks about taking over two million off benefit. Their claims are full of holes, but they get away with it because they are allowed to.

[Votedave]

MORI needs to change its polling methodology. I'm afraid I'm not taking them seriously at the moment.
Compare it with any other major polling organisation and you will notice a big difference in the result.

[David Parker]

Tony Makara,
Precisely!

[eugene]

At the expense of not being original....

Tony Makara
Precisely!

[Edison Smith]

Without wishing to sound too pompous, the findings of this Mori poll reflect exactly what I said on this site at the weekend in regards to what issues Cameron should be concentrating on in order to push on further.

I said...

__________

In my nook of London where Labour and Conservative are running neck-and-neck, the main issues for people are:

1. Crime & antisocial behaviour
2. Rubbish collection
3. Tax (not just Council but general burden)
4. Housing
5. Education

Things like the EU, immigration and ID cards (sadly) barely register at all.

Though important, these issues come nowhere to the fear of crime, fear of going out at night, desperation at the poor attitude of our youngsters, dog shit, fly-tipping, litter-dropping; the poor education our schools offer even if these kids went to school....

...Cameron must time and time again hammer Labour on our broken society. His line that - where as in the 1970s Britain was the sick man economically, now it is socially - was a great and true one.

Cameron is at his most convincing when talking about these issues and the swing voters want to hear his tough love.

We need more stuff like IDS's report on Social Justice etc. The country is ready for the strong arm.

Cameron should give them what they want.

[Mike]

Might I suggest that the public will look at last night's theatre in the Commons and conclude that the Tories alone can be trusted to keep their word?

Labour look like a collection of liars and the LibDems look, well, just stupid.

I'd like to get my prediction in first that yesterday was Labour's extremely low key and subtle Black Wednesday.

[Sally Roberts]

The Limp Dims certainly did themselves no credit yesterday in the Commons! What a shambles...I wonder how long it will be before they decide that Clegg has to go and they are looking for another leader?

[Sally Roberts]

At the risk of sounding like a parrot - I too agree 100% with Tony Makara on this one!

[gezmond]

Here we go again ! Any poll that is shows Labour and the Tories close together, is flawed!

You are all walking on the road to oblivion , A five point lead is nowhere near enough never mind a two point lead . Labour have now been in government for nearly eleven years and are in a mess . The Limp Dems are falling apart and we only between 2 and 7 points ahead . Pathetic ! Cameron and Osbourne are leading you all a Merrydance ! Wake Up ! Wake Up ! Wake Up ! before it,s too late .

We need a True Conservative to lead the party not a Limp Blair soundalike !

I fear for the Future.

[passing leftie]

3% mention Europe as an issue of importance. No one cares about the Lisbon Treaty. If you ask their opinion, they'll give it, but read it and weep, Conservative Home

[Lib Dem Member]

Opposition the EU is wide but very shallow. No body cares about it really. the 5% obssessives will devote there lives and money to the issue but its not an election winner. look at foot in 1983 and hague in 2001. The lib Dems have not so much shot them selves in the foot as blown there toes off one by one this week but any Euor obessive doesn't vote for us anyway.

the real damage if there is any is because the media will see cleggs leadership through this prism because its in the first 100 days like browns Non election and Mings first PMQ's.