The Tories are still to choose a big theme

This morning's Independent wonders if there might be a June 2009 "double election" - with voters asked to choose their MEPs and MPs:

"The idea was discussed in the margins of Labour's spring conference in Birmingham last weekend and has won the backing of some party officials. Although allies of Mr Brown said it was "very premature" to talk about the date, party sources said he did not want to delay polling until the last possible moment in the spring of 2010."

This is the second recent story of its kind.  Monday's FT got there first.  The key factor in Mr Brown's mind appears to be the economy.  If the economy is picking up next year he will be able to go to the country and invite voters to stick with him as the best person to steward Britain through global economic turbulence.  Brown believes that the economy will remain the decisive electoral issue and that the Tories made a strategic mistake in their first two years by emphasising social rather than economic issues.  Oliver Letwin famously wrote of a movement away from an econocentric worldview to a sociocentric worldview. 

Up until now the Tory approach has been to adopt a very similar economic policy to Labour (matching Brown, for example, on spending - an approach endorsed by Daniel Finkelstein in today's Times).  This 'reassurance, reassurance, reassurance' tactic - neutering Labour's fifteen year advantage on economic competence - will only work if the Tories give voters other potent reasons to choose them.

The last week alone has seen frenetic activity from the Tory leader:

• At last week's PMQs he launched his anti-politics drive - followed up by a big speech on Saturday that listed what he would do to restore trust in politics.  27 of the newest Tory MPs joined in with a campaign to allow failed MPs to be sacked by constituents mid-term.
• He has announced an aspiration for a third of ministers to be women.
• He has promised to equalise the size of Westminster constituencies - a major reform necessary to eliminate the system's bias against the Conservative Party.
• A major prison-building programme that will create the space for 'a rehabilitation revolution' - with prisoner governors incentivised to reduce reoffending rates.
• A Military Covenant Commission to investigate ways of improving care of servicemen, their families and veterans.
• A strong attack on 'state multiculturalism' and criticism of Labour's handling of Muslim extremism.

The announcements and initiatives are coming so fast that it is difficult to keep up with them and there is a danger that they are not producing any defining picture of what a Conservative government would look like.  Last week's £0.5m Tory advertising campaign confirmed that the Tories are still keeping their options open in terms of 'a big idea'.  The campaign included ten messages - all carefully targeted - but no overarching theme.  ConservativeHome continues to believe that crime should be the main Tory theme.  The Tory leadership, for the time-being, doesn't seem ready to choose and, to be fair, it still has time on its side.

Comments

[Robert McIlveen]

An overarching theme shouldn't just be a favourite policy area - we need to encompass our approach to government.

To my mind the common theme of our announced policies is making government work better, although I'm sure it could be phrased better. Maybe something along the lines of making government the servant of the people again?

[Editor]

Fair point Robert. I agree - it doesn't have to be a policy. I just have a sense we are not giving people a clear sense of what we are offering them. It could be a list of ten policies that we give to every voter in Britain and promise that we'll enact all of them in 100 days. I don't know but we need something to bring our agenda alive. There's no need for panic. As I say, time is on our side but it must be more cut-through than social responsibility or the post-bureaucratic age.

[Edward]

The theme must be we will "trust people".

Trust people to spend their own money better.
Trust people to exercise restraint over their MPs.
Trust police, when properly empowered, to clamp down on crime.

[Guido Fawkes]

It is the economy stupid.

All else has appeal to relatively narrow sections of voters. Nobody cares or believes the guff about making government work better.

The economy however effects everyone.

Osborne needs to unpick the Brownies strong economy myth: ballooning government and personal debt, taxes that burden the middle-classes, over-regulation, lost competitiveness and massive hidden unemployment.

Osborne's office have a big enough budget, hit the target boys. It is big enough.

[James Burdett]

Robert - I agree, that the theme should be about an over-arching philosophy. I think it is clear that we are heading for a kind of power-to-the-people, smaller more efficient govt idea.

In terms of messages it's a shame that the slogan has been used by a bank but a campaign that had the slogan 'There is another way.' or maybe 'There is a better way' could be quite effective. I would couple it with a slogan of 'Browned off?'. You could then run a series of posters with damning facts about Labour's record and then finish with 'Browned off? There is a better way. Vote Conservative.'

[Umbrella man]

Security should be the theme. Economic Security. Security on the streets. Security from terrorism.

[David Belchamber]

Well said, Guido at 09.20:

"The economy however effects everyone.

Osborne needs to unpick the Brownies strong economy myth: ballooning government and personal debt, taxes that burden the middle-classes, over-regulation, lost competitiveness and massive hidden unemployment.

Osborne's office have a big enough budget, hit the target boys. It is big enough".

The worry is that the tories have largely failed in that objective over the last decade.

What about the doubling of the initial tax rate for the loewst earners and the addition of 2p a litre on petrol?

[James Burdett]

Whilst I agree with Guido, I think that an economic attack only works when the public notice. Come the end of April when the tax hikes start to be noticed, that is the point to start really smacking the government on the economy. I suspect that is the intention/

[Letters From A Tory]

After Northern Rock, Labour will always be vulnerable on the economy. However, their record on public services, taxation and crime is where they are most vulnerable and will continue to be so, regardless of global economics.

[Martin Coxall]

The time of the new localist agenda has come.

The only way to rebuild trust in politics is a massive shift in power away from the centre to our local communities.

Trust the people to run their own affairs, then they might begin to trust us.

If we don't trust the people with their own destiny, we have no right to call ourselves patriots.

[richard]

I am reminded of frequent occurences on University Challenge whereby the brave students proffer the same answer to all three of the additional questions, only to finally get it right on the third one (and be greeted by faint praise from a derisory Paxman!)

The Tories may have fought the last two elections on tax reduction policies, but that does NOT mean it can't be right this time.

Brown's great economic con trick is quickly unravelling and everyone can see it. Never fear the accusation of cutting services, either. A bonfire of New Labour's pointless and expensive PC policies would raise a cheer for each one thrown into the flames.

My view is that William Hague's campaign of 2001 should be dusted down. He was / is such a brilliant political mind, that he knew exactly what was coming under New Labour. He was just a decade or so too early in trying to persuade everyone else.

"You've paid the taxes, so where's the ..."

May not have hit home then, but by god would it now.

[Matt Wright]

An overarching theme is needed. I've always thought that when people vote , when they go into the polling booth on their own, they have in their mind what you might term a "raw proposition". All the various messages have washed over them upto that point but some very basic idea has to be at the front of their mind as to why they are going to vote for a party. The list of ten things in 2005 and the slogan asking a question (foolish as you are asking for the wrong answer) were both poor and didn't do this. Social responsibility doesn't resonate as a slogan but within it there is a theme but I think people have to have a very clear idea of what we stand for. All winning parties in history distill that into some raw idea about looking forward and leading.

[Iain]

"Come the end of April when the tax hikes start to be noticed, that is the point to start really smacking the government on the economy."

No that looks like opportunism or band wagon jumping, the real electoral returns are gained by having a clear position, making cogent arguments to support your position, and when events prove you correct the jackpot is yours. In this Vince Cable did himself no end of good by having a coherent and long held position on NR. Osborne on the other hand, doesn't look like the person to manage our finances, doesn’t sound it, is unable to sustain any sort of economic argument, can't hold the Government to account, and when offered an open goal he fluffs it, so opportunistically leaping a band wagon because of some bad economic news isn’t going to benefit the Conservatives one little bit, in fact I suspect the electorate will treat it with some contempt.

The Conservatives at two years out from an election need to be putting down some economic markers, they aren’t. Need to be holding the Government to account on their economic record, they aren’t, and just as it was in the 2005 election, when it was said that there wasn’t the time to lay out a case for the economic policy and arguments they wanted to make at the election, it seems the same error is being made all over again, but this time there won’t be the excuse that leadership issues were the problem, no the problem is that the Shadow Chancellor just can’t cut it!

[James Burdett]

Iain - My point is that you cannot make headway if the case you present doesn't resonate. Economic attacks only work if people are concerned and can see evidence for your contentions. If you present a case that is not in accord with the way the public are moving you rarely look like a prophet and often look like a nutcase.

[passing leftie]

The economy is key. The low inflation we've had since 1997 combined with good growth, low unemployment and high public expenditure which hasn't been wasted on unemployment benefit are in stark contrast to previous governments. The extraordinary contrast between the Labour handling of Northern Rock and the Black Wednesday fiasco will continue to stick in voters' minds, with Cameron lurking in the background holding Norman Lamont's cigars. While Cameron flailed around, Brown and Darling explored the all options, and eventually chose the right course of action and the money lent to Northern Rock will be returned.

While Labour is favoured on the economy - and who ever had believed that 15 years ago - the Tories have little chance. You need to restore confidence in the ability of the Tories to manage the economy without screwing public services.

You used to win because you were nasty but competent, now people consider you nasty and incompetent. That's what has got to change. With Cameron it's all about niceness - not competence. Nasty and competent is better.

[christina speight]

I'm glad to see that the absence of a THEME is at last being noticed! I've been on about this for months now, Most of the policy Niagara has been good stuff but it will not itself be remembered or voted on without a linking theme - a slogan, if you like.

You don't go to a restaurant on its menu. You go because you think it all comes together as a whole.

One point though in the posting which I must challenge emphatically - " it still has time on its side" OH NO it hasn't! It takes time to develop an umbrella theme , a recognisable slogan

[Martin Coxall]

The theme is there, it's just that some here haven't noticed it yet.

"You can get it if you really want" was actually quite a big clue for CCHQ watchers.

[Malcolm Dunn]

Interest post on Guido today. The FTSE has grown by the grand total of 0% in the last ten years. It's been outperformed by Wall Street (USA), CAC(France), Dax (Germany) and the Hang Seng(China) and that's been run by communists during that time!
People like Passing Leftie may assume that stockmarkets don't matter to ordinairy people. They'd be wrong. Most people have some or all of the pensions tied up in the stockmarket the failure of the stockmarket will be felt increasingly by people as they retire.
Talking of pensions, in 1997 British pensions (State and private) were the best funded in Western Europe. Now they are the worst.
Passing Leftie's vision of Labour in general and Brown in particular as being competent managers of the nation's finances are fantasy.

[Nu Con -]

I think it's a good idea for people to hand over lots of there momey to be sqaundered by incomepetent half wits on politicaly correct initiatives and given to nice people for other countries who enrich our lives, after all where would we be without our Sunday Curry Lunch, Kabdi on the village green with the call to prayer gently wisping throught the air at 6AM. I also think its a good idea to be run by the EU, even though they can't account for the money we give them as they have a nice flag, an anthem, TWO parliaments, a justice system, a police force, army and soon they will soon have a nice president (hope it's Tone) and constitution that removes all our rights ; it will be just like the USSR but without the nice fur hats.

[passing leftie]

The UK economy has consistently outperformed the Eurozone in real national output, CPI inflation has averaged 1.9%. Total employment in the UK is at a record high, and compares favourably with the Eurozone. Long term unemployment has decreased. Interest rates have varied between 3% and 7.5%, and the UK has avoided recession. GDP growth has been steady and sustained, and Brown's called it much more accurately than other economists. Our budget is currently in deficit, but nothing like that running as a matter of course under the last Tory government.

Guido is just playing with numbers with his FTSE figures. I can pick some others, if you like. When Tony Blair got into power, the FTSE was 4630.9. Now it's 5884.30 a 28% increase.

[Malcolm Dunn]

Oh dear,oh dear, oh dear.Unlike our competitors the stockmarket hasn't grown in 10 years! No matter how you try to spin that it's a fact.Just accept it!

[Alex Swanson]

Long term unemployment has decreased.

How many of those alleged new jobs are actually unproductive govt sinecures? And what about long term sickness?

Our budget is currently in deficit, but nothing like that running as a matter of course under the last Tory government.

Are you taking into account debt accrued through PFIs and state pension commitments?

[Iain]

"Guido is just playing with numbers with his FTSE figures. I can pick some others, if you like. When Tony Blair got into power, the FTSE was 4630.9. Now it's 5884.30 a 28% increase."

Over ten years, that's a pretty crummy return, and it should be noted that while all the other countries have posted new highs after the dotcom crash, the one market which hasn't has been the FTSE.

[Alex Swanson]

When Tony Blair got into power, the FTSE was 4630.9. Now it's 5884.30 a 28% increase.

But Labour's commitment in 1997 was to follow Tory plans for the first two years.

So, in fact, what you're saying is that Tory policies continued to provide growth even after they were out of office, whereas purely Labour ones didn't.

I can't honestly regard that as an unmitigated advertisement for socialism.

[Malcolm Dunn]

No Alex you're wrong. It is very much an unmitigated advertisement for socialism.
All Labour governments run out of other peoples money in the end. I suspect this one will be no exception.

[passing leftie]

Picking times at random and quoting the FTSE is going to get you nowhere - that's the point I was making. Take a look yourself - you can pretty much argue anything you like from that. For example, from Jan 03 to date, the FTSE has outperformed the DJ.

Do any of you actually remember what it was like under the previous administration? Wildly fluctuating interest rates, huge trade deficits, repossessions, public expenditure as high as 45% spent disproportionately on state benefits, appalling unemployment, low employment, Black Wednesday?

You have to persuade the public that you can be trusted with the economy more than Brown, and you've got a long way to go.

[Alex Swanson]

Picking times at random and quoting the FTSE is going to get you nowhere - that's the point I was making.

It's a fair point in general, but you don't seem to be able to find one equally good yourself. And let's face it, we've all noticed how Gordon Brown moves golden cycle start and end points around to suit himself, so as far as statistical rigour is concerned you're really not in a position to criticise.

Do any of you actually remember what it was like under the previous administration?

As has been repeatedly pointed out, the 1979 govt inherited an economy literally on the verge of bankruptcy. It then followed policies - such as balancing the UK govt budget and suppressing inflation through interest rates - which are now economic orthodoxy but which at the time were bitterly opposed by Labour, and which did eventually result in economic stability and health. Of course it was painful. There was a lot to fix.

[B]

The FT was not actually there first - Balls floated this in an (on the record) interview in the Daily Telegraph a month or two back.

That seemed like wishful thinking at the time, but the momentum behind this seems to be growing.

[David Belchamber]

passing leftie at 12.38:

"CPI inflation has averaged 1.9%".

Inflation to the man in the street is the increase in the cost of living; nobody, other than Gordon Brown, believes that the CPI represents inflation, which is now ruinously high, largely as a result of this man creating an economy so largely based on consumer debt.

Do you go shopping, do you drive a car, do you have to pay gas and electricity bills?

If you do, you should know that to say inflation is averaging 1.9% is absolute rubbish that does not relate to the world that most of us live in.

If Brown is so clever, why did he sell off half our gold reserves at under $300 an ounce, why is he doubling the rate of tax for the lowest earners and why does he waste so much of our money?

[Richard]

"Maybe something along the lines of making government the servant of the people again?"

Maybe about getting it to sod off and leave us alone?